Fig 4 - available via license: CC BY
Content may be subject to copyright.
Metapopulation response to management scenarios. Mean values (and standard deviations) of metapopulation response variables across classes of scenarios simulated in metavole.R to predict impacts of habitat stressors or intervention on extinction risk. Values for F-statistic and p-value of ANOVA are included. Letters indicate significant differences between means for scenario classes. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237516.g004
Source publication
While metapopulation theory offers tractable means to understand extinction risks for patchily-distributed endangered species, real systems often feature discrepant patch quality and accessibility, complex influences of environmental stochasticity, and regional and temporal autocorrelation. Spatially structured metapopulation models are flexible an...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... trends were observed for total population size at time t across scenarios. Furthermore, additive impacts of Drought+Water loss and Drought+Fire were most severe, reducing T e by 21.2% and 22.7% respectively, although the differences between these two scenarios were not statistically significant (Fig 4). Trends of metapopulation sizes and migrants after 25 and 101 years mirrored findings for T e across scenarios (Fig 4, S3 Table). ...
Context 2
... this reason, we focused on the mean total population size and number of migrants at time t = 25 (mN25 and mcol25). The highest number of migrants at t = 25 (mcol25) occurred in the baseline (status quo) scenario, and greatest reductions in mcol25 occurred in Drought+Water loss (57%) and Drought +Fire (61%) (Fig 4). The fraction of marshes occupied within the landscape at t = 25 (mvp25) also had the greatest reduction for Drought+Fire and Drought+Water loss scenarios. ...
Citations
... Doing so would support a functional Roy et al. • Non-bulrush habitat use by Amargosa Voles. metapopulation (Reed 2004;Molofsky and Ferdy 2005), which has been identified as necessary to the survival and recovery of the species (USFWS 2019; Castle et al. 2020b). Incorporating non-bulrush vole habitat into management objectives is likely to have multiple beneficial effects for the conservation of the vole as well as other rare and protected species in the area. ...
Understanding how sensitive species use their habitats is critical to conservation and management efforts. The Amargosa Vole (Microtus californicus scirpensis) is believed to be strictly reliant on Three-square Bulrush (Schoenoplectus americanus, hereafter Bulrush) dominated habitats, but has anecdotally been observed in non-bulrush dominated habitats as well. Using range-wide camera-trapping and live-trapping survey data from 2015–2016 and 2019–2020, we summarized detections of voles in non-Bulrush dominated habitats. Through live-trapping data, we observed that up to 17% of trap locations that captured voles occurred in non-Bulrush dominated habitats, with a mean distance from Bulrush habitat of 16 m. Furthermore, voles were detected at multiple camera trap locations in non-Bulrush dominated habitats. Voles were most often detected in non-Bulrush dominated habitats containing Saltgrass (Distichlis spicata), rushes (Juncus spp.), Boraxweed (Nitrophila occidentalis), Yerba Mansa (Anemopsis californica), and Common Reed (Phragmites australis) dominated habitats. The relatively regular detection of voles in non-Bulrush dominated habitats may indicate that these areas are also important to the ecology and biology of the species. Incorporating non-bulrush vole habitat into conservation and management objectives is likely to have multiple benefits for the conservation of the Amargosa Vole.
https://wwjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2024/06/Roy_etal_WW_2024.pdf
... The deterministic model correctly tells whether an extinction state is approached of not; the precise dynamics about the such a low-populated state is, however, best studied stochastically. We would like to bring the effects of stochasticity, delays [94,95], structured matapopulation [96] into the scope of future investigations. Spatially restricted migration in structured population is known to avert extinction [77]. ...
A colony of the queenless ant species, Pristomyrmex punctatus, can broadly be seen as consisting of small-body sized worker ants and relatively larger body-sized cheater ants. Hence, in the presence of intercolony migration, a set of constituent colonies act as a metapopulation exclusively composed of cooperators and defectors. Such a setup facilitates an evolutionary game-theoretic replication-selection model of population dynamics of the ants in a metapopulation. Using the model, we analytically probe the effects of territoriality induced hostility. Such hostility in the ant metapopulation proves to be crucial in preventing the tragedy of the commons, specifically, the workforce, a social good formed by cooperation. This mechanism applies to any metapopulation—not necessarily the ants—composed of cooperators and defectors where interpopulation migration occurs asymmetrically, i.e., cooperators and defectors migrate at different rates. Furthermore, our model validates that there is evolutionary benefit behind the queenless ants' behavior of showing more hostility towards the immigrants from nearby colonies than those from the far-off ones. In order to calibrate our model's parameters, we have extensively used the data available on the queenless ant species, P. punctatus.
... Amargosa voles exhibit some dietary diversity and flexibility, seeking plant species with higher nutritional value to supplement bulrush in their diet (Castle et al., 2020a). Importantly, the high canopy of bulrush likely protects against the numerous avian predators while its dense litter provides refuge against terrestrial and aquatic predators, in addition to thermal refuge (Castle et al., 2020b;Klinger et al., 2015;Roy et al., 2019). Amargosa voles show strong spatial fidelity and might be relatively limited in their dispersal capabilities between marshes (Klinger et al., 2015;Krohn et al., 2018;Neuwald, 2010). ...
... Amargosa voles show strong spatial fidelity and might be relatively limited in their dispersal capabilities between marshes (Klinger et al., 2015;Krohn et al., 2018;Neuwald, 2010). Modelling has suggested the creation of megamarshes, connecting existing marshes, may help mitigate the population sinks and lack of long-term stability the species experiences in the currently fragmented marshes (Castle et al., 2020b). ...
Greater understanding of intraguild dynamics in rodent communities and of how house mice, Mus musculus, interact with wild sympatric rodents is needed. House mice can be a particularly virulent invasive species, presenting a potential threat to native biodiversity. In the Mojave Desert, western harvest mice, Reithrodontomys megalotis and the endangered Amargosa vole, Microtus californicus scirpensis, inhabit a fragmented desert wetland ecosystem. The Amargosa vole relies heavily on bulrush, Schoenoplectus americanus, for food, as well as thermal and predator refuge. We used two species occupancy models and estimated activity pattern overlap to explore spatial and temporal interactions within this rodent guild. For each species pairing, we compared the relative performance of a series of candidate occupancy models, with the most supported model structures and components distinguished by AICc and AICc weight. We found that voles reduced the detectability of western harvest mice and house mice, but did not spatially exclude them. Our findings also suggested that voles were more detectable in bulrush stands as bulrush cover increased, whereas house mice and western harvest mice were negatively associated with bulrush cover. House mice and western harvest mice had high activity pattern overlap, (Δ̂4 0.89, 95% CI = 0.85-0.96), which was greater with each other than with voles (Δ̂4 0.69, 95% CI = 0.57-0.75 and Δ̂4 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.70, respectively). House mice were also more detectable in the presence of western harvest mice, suggesting niche overlap or an attraction to them. Our observations suggest that, during the summer months, Amargosa voles could be a limiting factor on the behaviour and/or population densities of smaller rodent species in bulrush habitat. Drought exacerbated habitat changes may have contributed to house mouse expansion and vole decline in the region. While a deeper understanding of trophic dynamics is required, continued efforts to preserve the endangered Amargosa vole and it's habitat may also help mitigate any potential harm caused by free-living house mice in these desert wetlands.
The emergence of COVID-19 and the pandemic have changed and devastated every aspect of our lives. Before effective vaccines are widely used, it is important to predict the epidemic patterns of COVID-19. As SARS-CoV-2 is transferred primarily by droplets of infected people, the incorporation of human mobility is crucial in epidemic dynamics models. This study expands the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered compartment model by considering human mobility among a number of regions. Although the expanded meta-population epidemic model exhibits better performance than general compartment models, it requires a more accurate estimation of the extended modeling parameters. To estimate the parameters of these epidemic models, the meta-population model is incorporated with deep learning models. The combined deep learning model generates more accurate modeling parameters, which are used for epidemic meta-population modeling. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid deep learning framework, COVID-19 data in South Korea were tested, and the forecast of the epidemic patterns was compared with other estimation methods.
The critically endangered Amargosa vole (Microtus californicus scirpensis) is found only in rare marsh habitat near Tecopa, California in a plant community dominated by three-square bulrush (Schoenoplectus americanus). Since the earliest research on the Amargosa vole, the existing paradigm has been that these voles are obligatorily dependent on bulrush as their only food source and for the three-dimensional canopy and litter structure it provides for predator avoidance. However, no prior research has confirmed the diet of the Amargosa vole. In this study we characterized the Amargosa vole' nutritional needs, analyzed the quality of bulrush by forage analysis, and performed microhistological and metabarcoding analyses of vole feces to determine what foods were consumed in the wild. All bulrush plant tissues analyzed were low in fat (from 0.9% of dry matter in roots to 3.6% in seeds), high in neutral detergent fiber (from 5.9% in rhizomes to 33.6% in seeds), and low in protein (7.3-8.4%). These findings support the conclusion that bulrush alone is unlikely to support vole survival and reproduction. Fecal microhistology and DNA metabarcoding revealed relatively diverse diets including plants in 14 families, with rushes (Juncaceae), bulrushes (Cyperaceae), and grasses (Poaceae) being the most common diet items. On microhistology, all analyzed samples contained bulrush, sedges (Carex sp.), rushes (Juncus sp.), and beaked spikerush (Eleocharis rostrellata) even from marshes where non-bulrush plants were uncommon. There was evidence of insects at
