Mean historical (1971-2000) annual precipitation (a) and absolute change from historical mean in predicted 2070-2099 annual mean precipitation (b) across the contiguous United States (RCP 8.5 climate forcings are the multi-model mean derived from 20 downscaled CMIP5 models, downloaded from The Climate Mapper; Taylor et al. 2012; Abatzoglou and Brown 2012). The Missouri River tributary area is outlined in pink and the remaining Upper Mississippi watershed is outlined in red. The Upper Mississippi River mainstem (c), with the Upper Impounded Reach locks and dams indicated in black and the Lower Impounded Reach locks and dams indicated in white. Ceded territory boundaries are representations and may not be the actual legally binding boundaries

Contexts in source publication

Context 1

... Minneapolis, Minnesota, to Cairo, Illinois, is U.S. Congressionally defined as a nationally significant ecosystem and navigation system (Water Resources Development Act of 1986, 33 U.S. Code, section 652). The Upper Mississippi mainstem contains three geomorphically distinct reaches: the upper impounded, lower impounded, and unimpounded reaches ( Fig. 2c; Lubinski and Theiling 1999;De Jager et al. 2018). The upper impounded reach is characterized by a relatively well-connected and narrow floodplain with diverse aquatic habitat types. The lower impounded reach is characterized by a relatively wide floodplain with a mix of well-connected floodplain habitats and disconnected floodplain ...

Context 2

... Upper Mississippi River basin crosses state and tribal jurisdictional boundaries (Fig. 2c) and, as such, is managed by different authorities operating at different spatial extents and with differing management priorities (Table 1; McCain et al. 2018). The types of management decisions being made depend on the scale of the decision, from individual project sites (e.g., habitat restoration in a side-channel through the Upper ...

Context 3

... projections of mean annual precipitation show increases of 2-20% over the next 50 years in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, projections for the Lower Mississippi River Basin includes areas where precipitation is projected to increase (e.g., the Ohio River), remain the same (e.g., the Arkansas River), and decrease (e.g., Red River of the South; Fig. 2a, b). Further, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is expected to change (Additional file 1: Fig. S1) and simultaneously increasing air temperatures could result in a net loss of runoff through increased evapotranspiration, even in areas receiving increased annual precipitation ( Battaglin et al. 2020;Tercek et al. 2021). Given the large ...

Context 4

... and AJL initiated the study and led development of the manuscript. DCO developed Fig. 2 with iterative feedback from all coauthors. NKW developed Fig. 1 and Fig. 3 with iterative feedback from all coauthors. LMT developed Fig. 4 with feedback from all coauthors. BMM, GGS, KLB, HMR, and JDM led the development of draft manuscript sections. All authors made substantial contributions to the conception of the work, writing, ...

Context 5

... Minneapolis, Minnesota, to Cairo, Illinois, is U.S. Congressionally defined as a nationally significant ecosystem and navigation system (Water Resources Development Act of 1986, 33 U.S. Code, section 652). The Upper Mississippi mainstem contains three geomorphically distinct reaches: the upper impounded, lower impounded, and unimpounded reaches ( Fig. 2c; Lubinski and Theiling 1999;De Jager et al. 2018). The upper impounded reach is characterized by a relatively well-connected and narrow floodplain with diverse aquatic habitat types. The lower impounded reach is characterized by a relatively wide floodplain with a mix of well-connected floodplain habitats and disconnected floodplain ...

Context 6

... Upper Mississippi River basin crosses state and tribal jurisdictional boundaries (Fig. 2c) and, as such, is managed by different authorities operating at different spatial extents and with differing management priorities (Table 1; McCain et al. 2018). The types of management decisions being made depend on the scale of the decision, from individual project sites (e.g., habitat restoration in a side-channel through the Upper ...

Context 7

... projections of mean annual precipitation show increases of 2-20% over the next 50 years in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, projections for the Lower Mississippi River Basin includes areas where precipitation is projected to increase (e.g., the Ohio River), remain the same (e.g., the Arkansas River), and decrease (e.g., Red River of the South; Fig. 2a, b). Further, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is expected to change (Additional file 1: Fig. S1) and simultaneously increasing air temperatures could result in a net loss of runoff through increased evapotranspiration, even in areas receiving increased annual precipitation ( Battaglin et al. 2020;Tercek et al. 2021). Given the large ...

Context 8

... and AJL initiated the study and led development of the manuscript. DCO developed Fig. 2 with iterative feedback from all coauthors. NKW developed Fig. 1 and Fig. 3 with iterative feedback from all coauthors. LMT developed Fig. 4 with feedback from all coauthors. BMM, GGS, KLB, HMR, and JDM led the development of draft manuscript sections. All authors made substantial contributions to the conception of the work, writing, ...