Figure 46 - uploaded by Mukesh Subedee
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Map showing where salt and brackish wetlands that exist on the present landscape are modeled to either gain area, survive as is, or be converted to another land cover type or open water by the year 2100. The area of open water is expected to increase 26% by the year 2100. This expansion of open water and loss of essential coastal habitats has the potential to increase the vulnerability of this region to future hazards such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Figure 47 shows the relative vulnerability within this region. The map shows where land is converted to open water by 2100. Within each Q4, an average of 85 acres of land is lost to open water in Region 1. The areas most susceptible to land loss coincide with the areas experiencing the highest rates of subsidence. The marshes in these vulnerable areas are not vertically accreting at a pace fast enough to keep up with the rate of RSLR and are thus predicted to become submerged by 2100.
Source publication
The Harte Research Institute (HRI) used sea level rise, storm surge, and wave modeling to provide quantitative information regarding the impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR) and enhanced storm surge caused by higher sea level and changes in land cover along Texas coast. Through modeling of these major hazards, this work shows the relative susc...
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Citations
... For the 2019 Plan modeling study, HRI developed a dynamic modeling framework to assess quantitative information regarding the impacts of SLR and associated enhanced future storm surge caused by higher sea level and changes in land cover (Subedee et al. 2019). The framework comprised of the state-of-theart and computationally expensive models including Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), Simulating Waves in the Nearshore (SWAN), and HAZUS-MH ( Figure 3). ...
... Therefore, a total of 57 ADCIRC+SWAN simulations were performed for three scenarios. Subedee et al. 2019 have provided details of each of these modeling tools as the same modeling framework has been used for the 2023 Plan. Similarly, Subedee et al. 2019 provide granular details of each input used in the SLAMM and ADCIRC+SWAN modeling, methods used to update and run these models for different scenarios, numerical parameters used to run each model, and model calibration and validation steps. ...
... Subedee et al. 2019 have provided details of each of these modeling tools as the same modeling framework has been used for the 2023 Plan. Similarly, Subedee et al. 2019 provide granular details of each input used in the SLAMM and ADCIRC+SWAN modeling, methods used to update and run these models for different scenarios, numerical parameters used to run each model, and model calibration and validation steps. This study used the same approach and parameters as in the 2019 Plan described in Subedee et al. 2019. ...
The Harte Research Institute (HRI) conducted sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and wave modeling to provide quantitative information about the potential environmental impacts due to rising sea level and concomitant enhanced storm surge caused by higher sea level and changes in land cover in the Texas coast. This study is part of the third publication of the Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan (TCRMP) published in April 2023. TCRMP is an ambitious coastal planning effort by the Texas General Land Office (TGLO) to make the Texas coast more resilient to hazards.
This work follows on progress made during the development of the 2019 Plan, where analysis of recent coastal change, model projections of future change, and map visualizations, provided a preliminary understanding of the dynamics of the coastal zone affecting the ecosystem and community resiliency.
