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Map of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem depicting land allocation types overlaying shaded relief. Modified from Hansen and Phillips (2016).
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The Earth's remaining tracts of wildlands are being altered by increased human pressure and climate change. Yet, there is no systematic approach for quantifying change in the ecological condition of wildland ecosystems. This paper applies a Wildland Health Index (WHI) to evaluate trends in ecological vital signs in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem...
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... study area is the GYE as defined by Han- sen and Phillips (2016; Fig. 2). This delineation is based on objective analysis of the spatial domain of the ecosystem encompassing the national parks and designated wilderness areas, termed the Protected Area Centered Ecosystem (PACE; Hansen et al. 2011). It is also based on socioeconomic factors and includes the surrounding small cities and towns that interact ...
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... Monitoring data is analyzed to evaluate the prediction of vital signs, determining the direction and magnitude of change over time. Some vital signs are tracked using statistically valid methods, while others rely on repeated surveys with unknown accuracy or expert opinion [5]. Predicting vital signs can help doctors and nurses identify critical changes and prevent the patient's condition from worsening, ultimately reducing mortality rates in patients [6]. ...
Cardiac arrest remains a critical concern in Intensive Care Units (ICUs), with alarmingly low survival rates. Early prediction of cardiac arrest is challenging due to the complexity of patient data and the temporal nature of ICU care. To address this challenge, we explore the use of Deep Learning (DL) models, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), for forecasting ICU patient heart rates. We utilize a dataset extracted from the MIMIC III database, which poses the typical challenges of irregular time series data and missing values. Our research encompasses a comprehensive methodology, including data preprocessing, model development, and performance evaluation. Data preprocessing involves regularizing and imputing missing values, as well as data normalization. The dataset is partitioned into training, testing, and validation sets to facilitate model training and evaluation. Fine-tuning of hyperparameters is conducted to optimize each DL architecture's performance. Our results reveal that the GRU architecture consistently outperforms LSTM and BiLSTM in predicting heart rates, achieving the lowest RMSE and MAE values. The findings underscore the potential of DL models, particularly GRU, in enhancing the early detection of cardiac events in ICU patients.
... The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), home to most of North America's large mammal species, is no exception to current environmental fluctuations. Despite being one of the world's least anthropized temperate ecosystems (Kennedy et al., 2019), pronounced environmental changes have occurred in recent decades due to increased human impacts from recreation, development, and climate change (Gude et al., 2007;Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Hostetler et al., 2021;Romme et al., 2016). Within the large mammal community, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos, Linnaeus, 1758), commonly referred to as brown bear outside of the interior of North America, has received significant attention for over 60 years. ...
... However, it remains uncertain to what extent intraspecific competition (i.e., density-dependent factors) influenced individual performance such as sex-specific growth and body composition . This is timely and relevant to be singled-out, because density-independent factors, such as landscape-level perturbations induced by climate change and human impacts (Gude et al., 2007;Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Hostetler et al., 2021;Romme et al., 2016;Figure 1c) and involving declines in several high-calorie food sources (Figure 1b), have occurred in recent decades in the GYE. For example, starting in the early 2000s, mature whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis, Engelm, 1863) trees (seeds of which are a high-calorie food source during late summer and fall; Macfarlane et al., 2013; experienced extensive mortality, primarily from a large-scale mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Hopkins, 1902) outbreak (Shanahan et al., 2016), with masting events moderating over time (Haroldson, 2021;Figure 1b). ...
... These results corroborate and integrate findings of previous grizzly bear research in the GYE that population growth slowed as juvenile mortality increased, with infanticidal males likely playing a role, and female reproductive rate declining, particularly in areas with higher bear densities . Conversely, rate of body fat accumulation was relatively constant ( Figure 5) with respect to local population density and declines in several high-calorie food sources over the last two decades (Gude et al., 2007;Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Hostetler et al., 2021;Romme et al., 2016;Figure 1b). This shows omnivorymediated plasticity as a stabilizing driver for body condition across decades, supporting the hypothesis that bears prioritize fat storage over lean body mass when allocating energy from food consumption in preparation for hibernation (H3, Table 1). ...
Understanding the density-dependent processes that drive population demography in a changing world is critical in ecology, yet measuring performance-density relationships in long-lived mammalian species demands long-term data, limiting scientists' ability to observe such mechanisms. We tested performance-density relationships for an opportunistic omnivore, grizzly bears (Ursus arctos, Linnaeus, 1758) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with estimates of body composition (lean body mass and percent body fat) serving as indicators of individual performance over two decades (2000-2020) during which time pronounced environmental changes have occurred. Several high-calorie foods for grizzly bears have mostly declined in recent decades (e.g., whitebark pine [Pinus albicaulis, Engelm, 1863]), while increasing human impacts from recreation, development, and long-term shifts in temperatures and precipitation are altering the ecosystem. We hypothesized that individual lean body mass declines as population density increases (H1), and that this effect would be more pronounced among growing individuals (H2). We also hypothesized that omnivory helps grizzly bears buffer energy intake from changing foods, with body fat levels being independent from population density and environmental changes (H3). Our analyses showed that individual lean body mass was negatively related to population density, particularly among growing-age females, supporting H1 and partially H2. In contrast, population density or sex had little effect on body fat levels and rate of accumulation, indicating that sufficient food resources were available on the landscape to accommodate successful use of shifting food sources, supporting H3. Our results offer important insights into ecological feedback mechanisms driving individual performances within a population undergoing demographic and ecosystem-level changes. However, synergistic effects of continued climate change and increased human impacts could lead to more extreme changes in food availability and affect observed population resilience mechanisms. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term studies in protected areas when investigating complex ecological relationships in an increasingly anthropogenic world.
... Our study spanned nearly 150,000 km 2 of the GYE, including northwestern Wyoming, eastern Idaho, and southern Montana ( Figure 1). Centered around Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, the area encompasses surrounding national forests and tribal lands, as well as a mosaic of agricultural lands, energy infrastructure, and rapidly expanding urban and suburban development (Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Rickbeil et al., 2019). Elk in the GYE mainly spend the winter in lower elevation grasslands and shrublands on a mix of multiuse public and private lands, where they experience the highest amount of anthropogenic-influenced habitat, including residential and energy development, agricultural land, and feeding grounds in some portions of Wyoming (Gigliotti et al., 2022;Rickbeil et al., 2019). ...
... Similarly, low thresholds have been identified in mule deer, which avoid migrating through areas with 3% surface cover of energy development . As anthropogenic land use is projected to dramatically increase in the GYE over the remainder of the century (Hansen & Phillips, 2018), limiting development in winter ranges and on spring migratory routes may help reduce switching away from migratory tactics (Middleton et al., 2020). ...
A growing body of evidence shows that some ungulates alternate between migratory and nonmigratory behaviors over time. Yet it remains unclear whether such short-term behavioral changes can help explain reported declines in ungulate migration worldwide, as opposed to long-term demographic changes. Furthermore, advances in tracking technology reveal that a simple distinction between migration and nonmigration may not sufficiently describe all individual behaviors. To better understand the dynamics and drivers of ungulate switching behavior, we investigated 14 years of movement data from 361 elk in 20 herds across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). First, we categorized yearly individual behaviors using a clustering algorithm that identified similar migratory tactics across a continuum of behaviors. Then, we tested seven hypotheses to explain why some ungulates switch behaviors, and we evaluated how behavioral changes affected the proportions of different behaviors across the system. We identified four distinct behavioral tactics: residents (4.8% of elk-years), short-distance migrants (53.7%), elevational migrants (21.9%) and long-distance migrants (19.6%). Of the 20 herds, 18 were partially migratory, and 5 had all four movement tactics present. We observed switches between migratory tactics in all sets of consecutive years during our study period, with an average of 22.5% of individual elk changing movement tactics from one year to the next. Elk in herds with higher movement tactic diversity were significantly more likely to switch tactics and often responded more effectively to adverse environmental conditions, compared to those in herds with low movement tactic diversity. During our study period, switching increased the prevalence of both short-and long-distance migrants, decreased the prevalence of elevational migrants, and had no effect on the prevalence of residents. Our findings suggest that rather than contributing to the declining migratory behavior found in the GYE, switching behavior may enable greater resiliency to continuously changing environmental anthropogenic conditions.
... Ecosystem (GYE). A large portion of the major elk herds within the GYE migrate seasonally (Craighead et al., 1972;Rickbeil et al., 2019) between summer ranges in and around protected areas such as Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks and winter ranges on private lands that are experiencing significant change (Gigliotti et al., 2022;Hansen & Phillips, 2018). Conversion of habitats to residential development or irrigated agriculture within the GYE has the potential to affect elk. ...
... Although much of the GYE falls within protected areas, the majority of elk herds in this system, including many that summer in parks and wilderness areas, rely on private lands, especially in their winter ranges (Gigliotti et al., 2022). Private lands in this system are vulnerable to future human development (Gude et al., 2006;Hansen & Phillips, 2018), given that many areas of the GYE do not have any zoning regulations in place (Gigliotti et al., 2022) ...
Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land‐use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresholds might vary across levels of selection.
We evaluated multi‐level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from 765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and associated measures of land‐use availability, we used functional‐response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds.
We found individual and level‐specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second‐order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third‐order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth‐order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture.
Synthesis and applications. Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land‐use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.
... Although the majority of elk seasonal ranges included some level of zoning regulations, the majority of ranges had very small proportions of their total area currently zoned. Both the human population density, as well as the associated housing density within the GYE are projected to steadily increase in the next few decades (Hansen and Phillips, 2018). Therefore, a lack of zoning regulations in core elk ranges could lead to increased levels of human infrastructure which could prove to be detrimental to the persistence of some migratory elk in the GYE, given that migratory ungulates have been found to avoid areas with high human infrastructure during migration (Wyckoff et al., 2018;Sawyer et al., 2020). ...
... However, future development and land use change threaten to upend the role of private lands in sustaining wide-ranging wildlife in the system. As the GYE continues to experience increasing human population and human development, and land use change (Hansen and Phillips, 2018), the need to sustain migratory connectivity is critical. The challenges and opportunities associated with conserving populations across such a large scale can also be applied to other migratory species in the GYE. ...
Formally protected areas are an important component of wildlife conservation, but face limitations in their effectiveness for migratory species. Improved stewardship of working lands around protected areas is one solution for conservation planning, but private working lands are vulnerable to development. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), ungulates such as elk (Cervus canadensis) use both protected areas and private lands throughout their annual migrations. We studied patterns of landownership, protection, and conservation challenges within the ranges of migratory elk in the GYE. We used GPS data from 1088 elk in 26 herds to define herd-level seasonal ranges, and extracted covariates related to landownership and protection, land use, and human infrastructure and development. All elk herds used land encompassing >1 ownership type. Most elk herds (92.3 % of herds, n = 24) used the highest proportion of private land in the winter (mean = 36.2 % private land). Most elk herds' winter ranges contained the highest building densities (mean = 1.24 buildings/km²), fence densities (mean = 1.02 km fence/km²), and cattle grazing (mean = 1.9 cows/km²), compared to migratory and summer ranges. Out of all ranges, 36.5 % of ranges did not have any zoning regulations, indicating the potential for future development. Our results show that elk in the GYE rely on habitat outside of protected areas, and face landscape-scale conservation challenges such as habitat fragmentation from human development, particularly in winter ranges. Future conservation strategies for wildlife in this system need to encompass coordination across both public and private land to ensure migratory connectivity.
... Private land holdings in the GYE are primarily located on lowland grasslands, and have been subject to land-use change within the past 40 years (Hansen et al., 2002;NASEM, 2017;Hansen and Phillips, 2018). These areas are mainly used for cattle ranching, with approximately 450,000 cattle in the GYE, and about 85% of the operations are open-range grazing calf-cow beef producers (Peck, 2010;NASEM, 2017). ...
... year −1 0.5/ 0.5 (Xie and Horan, 2009;Dobson and Meagher, 1996) o Overlap Area ( Over the past 30 years, since brucellosis surveillance began, there has been substantial land-use change affecting habitat overlap between elk and cattle (NASEM, 2017). It is expected that in the next 40 years land conversion will expand habitat overlap between the species, which translates to an increased shape index of the range that elk inhabit (Hansen and Phillips, 2018). It is assumed that when surveillance began, the habitat overlap shape index between cattle and elk was at the minimum value of one, and that there was a relatively linear increase in the shape index per year. ...
Brucellosis is a zoonotic bacterial infectious disease that affects livestock and wildlife. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is the last area in the United States where cattle are regularly infected with brucellosis. Even though livestock are vaccinated, interactions with reservoir species still result in spill-over cases to cattle. The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has indicated that modeling efforts should focus on the transmission between elk and cattle and should be conducted to better understand the effects of land-use change and landscape configuration on disease risk. This chapter determines how the landscape's configuration, using the shape and amount of habitat overlap between elk and cattle, contributes to cross-species brucellosis transmission, and how land-use change translates to disease prevalence. A mathematical-epidemiological model is combined with landscape ecology metrics to estimate transmission rates between the species and model disease spread. The results of this study can ultimately help stakeholders develop policy for controlling brucellosis transmission between livestock and elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area. In turn, this could lead to less disease prevalence, reduce associated costs, and assist in population management.
... GWEs were defined as the large protected areas and surrounding public and private natural habitats that have strong ecological and social connections with the core protected areas. Connectivity among GWEs is of concern for ecosystem types (Rehfeldt et al., 2012), tree species (Hansen & Phillips, 2018), and vertebrate species (Lawler et al., 2013). We chose to model habitat structural connectivity among GWEs using resistance surfaces generally relevant to forest-dependent large mammal species. ...
Natural habitats on private lands are potentially important components of national biodiversity conservation strategies, yet they are being rapidly lost to development. Conservation easements and other means of protecting these habitats have expanded in use and will be most effective if they target private lands of highest biodiversity value and risk of loss. We developed a Biodiversity Conservation Priority Index (BCPI) based on ecological value and risk of habitat loss for remaining areas of natural vegetation cover (NVC) in the northwestern United States and addressed two questions: (1) Which remaining NVC on private lands is the highest priority for biodiversity conservation based on ecological value and risk of development? And (2) are conservation easements in NVC placed preferentially in locations of high biodiversity conservation priority? Drawing on the concept of ecological integrity, we integrated five metrics of ecological structure, function, and composition to quantify ecological value of NVC. These included net primary productivity, species richness, ecosystem type representation, imperiled species range rarity, and connectivity among “Greater Wildland Ecosystems.” Risk of habitat loss was derived from analysis of biophysical and sociodemographic predictors of NVC loss. Ecological value and risk of loss were combined into the BCPI. We then analyzed spatial patterns of BCPI to identify the NVC highest in biodiversity conservation priority and examined the relationship between BCPI and conservation easement status. We found that BCPI varied spatially across the study area and was highest in western and southern portions of the study area. High BCPI was associated with suburban and rural development, roads, urban proximity, valley bottom landforms, and low intensity of current development. Existing conservation easements were distributed more towards lower BCPI values than unprotected NVC at both the study area and region scales. The BCPI can be used to better inform land use decision making at local, regional, and potentially national scales in order to better achieve biodiversity goals.
... In response to the proportion protected approach, a number of other methodologies have been developed to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs before these larger global targets have been met (Bolton et al., 2019;Gaston et al., 2006Gaston et al., , 2008Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Parrish et al., 2003). One recently identified concept in Canadian protected area management is ecological integrity. ...
... Ecological integrity is defined as an ecosystem having the expected "living and non-living pieces for the region," and where ecological processes occur at the expected frequency and intensity for the region (Parks Canada, 2019). Many potential ecological integrity indicators have been examined to capture biodiversity related processes within PA Hansen & Phillips, 2018). These indicators can then be interpreted manually or automatically, most often through examining temporal trends within the PA or by comparing the indicators to areas in known healthy reference ecosystems (Woodley, 1993). ...
... The opening of the Landsat archive in 2008 (Wulder, Masek, et al., 2012) has played a significant role in the use of satellite imagery in conservation monitoring (Nagendra, 2008;Turner et al., 2015). The availability of 30-m spatial resolution data since 1984 allows for assessment of temporal trends in satellite derived indicators (Bolton et al., 2019;Hansen & Phillips, 2018;Nagendra et al., 2013), while the global coverage allows for comparisons between similar and differing ecosystems (Nagendra, 2008;Wulder, Masek, et al., 2012). Leveraging free and open-source optical remote sensing data products has allowed users to increasingly undertake comparisons across an entire jurisdiction's PA network (Bolton et al., 2019;Fraser et al., 2009;Pôças et al., 2011;Skidmore et al., 2021;Soverel et al., 2010), comparing them to ecologically similar UA (Buchanan et al., 2018;Turner et al., 2015). ...
Protected areas (PA) are an effective means of conserving biodiversity and protecting suites of valuable ecosystem services. Currently, many nations and international governments use proportional area protected as a critical metric for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation. However, the areal and other common metrics do not assess the effectiveness of PA networks, nor do they assess how representative PA are of the ecosystems they aim to protect. Topography, stand structure, and land cover are all key drivers of biodiversity within forest environments, and are well‐suited as indicators to assess the representation of PA. Here, we examine the PA network in British Columbia, Canada, through drivers derived from freely‐available data and remote sensing products across the provincial biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system. We examine biases in the PA network by elevation, forest disturbances, and forest structural attributes, including height, cover, and biomass by comparing a random sample of protected and unprotected pixels. Results indicate that PA are commonly biased towards high‐elevation and alpine land covers, and that forest structural attributes of the park network are often significantly different in protected versus unprotected areas (426 out of 496 forest structural attributes found to be different; p < 0.01). Analysis of forest structural attributes suggests that establishing additional PA could ensure representation of various forest structure regimes across British Columbia's ecosystems. We conclude that these approaches using free and open remote sensing data are highly transferable and can be accomplished using consistent datasets to assess PA representations globally.
... Along with neighboring Grand Teton NP (est. 1929), these parks form the core of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), one of the planet's most intact temperate ecosystems (Hansen and Phillips, 2018;Watson et al., 2018). Together, Yellowstone and Grand Teton NPs were designated as one of the United Nations "World Network of Biosphere Reserves"-sites set aside for their international importance and managed in ways that promote biodiversity and the transfer of knowledge across an international network of sites (https://en.unesco.org). ...
Protected areas like national parks are essential elements of conservation because they limit human influence on the landscape, which protects biodiversity and ecosystem function. The role of national parks in conservation, however, often goes far beyond limiting human influence. The U.S. National Park Service and its system of land units contribute substantively to conservation by providing protected lands where researchers can document trends in species distributions and abundances, examine characteristics important for generating these trends, and identify and implement conservation strategies to preserve biodiversity. We reviewed the contribution of U.S. national parks to amphibian research and conservation and highlight important challenges and findings in several key areas. First, U.S. national parks were instrumental in providing strong support that amphibian declines were real and unlikely to be simply a consequence of habitat loss. Second, research in U.S. national parks provided evidence against certain hypothesized causes of decline, like UV-B radiation, and evidence for others, such as introduced species and disease. However, describing declines and identifying causes contributes to conservation only if it leads to management; importantly, U.S. national parks have implemented many conservation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in recovering robust amphibian populations. Among these, removal of invasive species, especially fishes; conservation translocations; and habitat creation and enhancement stand out as examples of successful conservation strategies with broad applicability. Successful management for amphibians is additionally complicated by competing mandates and stakeholder interests; for example, past emphasis on increasing visitor enjoyment by introducing fish to formerly fishless lakes had devastating consequences for many amphibians. Other potential conflicts with amphibian conservation include increasing development, increased risk of introductions of disease and exotic species with increased visitation, and road mortality. Decision science and leveraging partnerships have proven to be key components of effective conservation under conflicting mandates in national parks. As resource managers grapple with large-scale drivers that are outside local control, public-private partnerships and adaptive strategies are increasing in importance. U.S. national parks have played an important role in many aspects of identifying and ameliorating the amphibian decline crisis and will continue to be essential for the conservation of amphibians in the future.
... The ecological endowments of these two regions have made them hotspots for scientific and philanthropic activity related to conservation. Private land ownership and management feature prominently in ongoing debates about how to sustain and improve outcomes for biodiversity Hansen and Phillips 2018;Hendrickson et al. 2019;Middleton et al. 2020;Nordhaus 2020). In the twelve counties that comprise our study area, private land provides intact mountain and grassland habitat with important ecological benefits including the landscape-scale connectivity and corridors necessary for migratory species such as elk, bison, mule deer and pronghorn antelope, as well as a variety of specialist species (Hansen and Phillips 2018). ...
... Private land ownership and management feature prominently in ongoing debates about how to sustain and improve outcomes for biodiversity Hansen and Phillips 2018;Hendrickson et al. 2019;Middleton et al. 2020;Nordhaus 2020). In the twelve counties that comprise our study area, private land provides intact mountain and grassland habitat with important ecological benefits including the landscape-scale connectivity and corridors necessary for migratory species such as elk, bison, mule deer and pronghorn antelope, as well as a variety of specialist species (Hansen and Phillips 2018). ...
... Indeed, these data suggest that landownership change and concentration are interacting to make vast private estates a defining feature of one of the world's priority conservation landscapes. As such, they add a new twist to the long-standing concern about fragmentation as a dominant pattern in landscapes of high amenity value (Riebsame, Gosnell, and Theobald 1996;Gude et al. 2006;Hansen and Phillips 2018). That new twist is a pattern where individuals can gain profound influence over biodiversity and rural economic futures (Epstein, Haggerty, and Gosnell 2021). ...
Where agricultural land use and biodiversity conservation values overlap, conservation science has tended to focus on the challenges posed by land ownership fragmentation. However, the dynamics of land concentration also affect rural landscapes and economies upon which biodiversity conservation increasingly depends. In this study, we provide a methodological approach to measuring concentration using parcel-level data to generate a description of private landownership trends at the boundary of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Plains, two ecoregions of global conservation significance. Across our 25m-acre study region in Montana, USA concentration in large land ownership increased by 7 percent between 2005 and 2018. Growth of a county’s largest landholding through the agglomeration of properties into a single mega-estate emerges as a recurring trend. Other drivers contribute to concentration, suggesting a mix of conservation opportunities and challenges that merits further research and consideration by academic and resource management stakeholders.
