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In this paper, we provide an in-depth overview of key macroprudential policy framework instruments and borrower-based analytical tools in Kazakhstan. We estimate the debt service-to-income ratio (DSTI) for household sector in Kazakhstan for the period between 2013Q2 and 2022Q1. We use the actual remaining maturity and the interest rate for each loa...
Citations
... The Minsky model is endogenous, which means it identifies internal events and instabilities within the systems as causes of financial instability and crisis. (Ybrayev et al., 2023) 2. and what companies can produce (Kindleberger & Aliber, 2005). Speculative finance means that investors speculate in fundamental shifts that will push prices upward in the future. ...
Since the turn of the millennium, a lasting period of mostly strong national economic growth has persisted. In the autumn of 2021, the Norwegian Central Bank began increasing the policy rate and has since increased it 13 times. This rapid increase in policy rate came about due to increasing inflation and a weakened currency. This thesis aims to assess if the economy is headed towards a crisis by conducting an empirical analysis of the present-day economy and a comparative analysis of past crises. The primary conclusion drawn is that the Norwegian economy shows strong signs of having been slowly overheated and is now perhaps headed towards stagflation,
The empirical analysis involved estimating the Taylor rule and Tobin’s Q as well as using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate the long-term trend in various macro indicators. The Taylor Rule was used to assess the central bank’s recent historical interest rate decisions, while Tobin’s Q was used to check for deviation from fundamental values in the stock market.
The results from Taylor Rule and Tobin’s Q indicate that the Norwegian economy has had the necessary foundations to become overheated through an artificially low policy rate and actual overheating in the stock market. Combined with the strong growth in macro indicators such as GDP, consumption, and household leverage, it seems quite clear that there has been at least some overheating.
With unemployment creeping upwards, inflation rising swiftly, and GDP slightly plateauing, it is tempting to speculate on the potential of incoming stagflation. Many fundamental factors are also in place compared to historical incidents, such as increased prices for global input factors and a long period of previous overheating.
... This metric is not only utilized by banks and investors to gauge a company's creditworthiness and growth potential but also serves as a valuable tool for appraising the company's ability to finance expansion endeavours (Laila et al. 2021). Moreover, it aids in evaluating whether the financial decisions made by the board of directors align with the desired outcomes of the shareholders (Elvery and Schweitzer 2016;Ybrayev et al. 2023). ...
This study investigates the influence of corporate governance mechanisms on debt service obligations within the context of 34 automobile companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from 2006 to 2021, utilizing a purposive sampling approach. Employing a range of statistical models including the random effect model, fixed effect model, and the generalized method of moments (GMM), the study yields several key findings. Firstly, it reveals a significant and positive correlation between the presence of independent board members and the debt service obligations of Japanese automobile firms. Secondly, a noteworthy negative association is uncovered when the CEO holds a dual role, impacting debt service obligations negatively. Thirdly, the inclusion of non-executive board members on corporate boards is found to be linked to a significant and adverse effect on debt service obligations among these firms. Finally, the study underscores the positive impact of board members' knowledge, skills, and the frequency of meetings on the debt service obligations of automobile companies in Japan.
Using a Monte Carlo method and quarterly data from the 2019 Household Expenditure and Income Survey, we examine the resilience of urban and rural households to various shocks, including exchange rate change, changes in asset prices, job losses, and decline in income. Based on the exposure at default (EAD) estimates, the largest impact was observed in the case of an income shock. The EAD values ranged from 0.38 to 0.43 compared to a baseline case of 0.35. The latter indicates that about one-third of the debt held by households may be problematic, especially in rural areas. The second largest impact is seen for a major currency devaluation, followed by the rise in unemployment. In addition, the breakdown of these results by income shows that households in the lower income quartiles are more vulnerable. Potential implications are discussed.
