Fig 1 - uploaded by Miroslav Trnka
Content may be subject to copyright.
Locations and rivers in the Czech Republic mentioned in this paper: 1-Benešov nad Ploučnicí, 2-Břeclav, 3-Bzenec, 4-Cheb, 5-ˇ Ceská Lípa, 6-ˇ Ceská Skalice, 7-ˇ Ceské Budějovice, 8-Dačice, 9-Děčín-Podmokly, 10-Dobruška, 11-Domažlice, 12-Hradec Králové, 13-Hradisko / Klášterní Hradisko, 14-Hranice, 15-Jáchymov, 16-Jihlava, 17-Kadaň, 18-Karlštejn, 19-Klatovy, 20Kroměříž, 21-Krupka, 22-Litoměřice, 23-Louny, 24-Mimoň, 25-Moravsk´yMoravsk´y Beroun, 26-Olomouc, 27-Opočno, 28-Plzeň, 29Praskolesy, 30-Přerov, 31-Přímětice, 32-Roudnice nad Labem, 33-R´ymařovR´ymařov, 34-Slan´ySlan´y, 35-Sobůlky, 36-Stará Voda, 37-Svat´ySvat´y Kopeček, 38-Svitávka, 39-Trutnov, 40-Třebíč, 41-Třeboň, 42-Uherské Hradiště, 43-Uhersk´yUhersk´y Brod, 44-Varnsdorf, 45-Zašová, 46-Zbraslav, 47-ˇ Zelechovice.
Source publication
This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090-2012 AD
period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental
records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of
drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While
the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis
concentra...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... evidence used as basic data in his- torical climatology (Pfister, 2001;Brázdil et al., 2005Brázdil et al., , 2010de Kraker, 2006;Kiss, 2009;Mauelshagen, 2010) and histor- ical hydrology (Brázdil et al., 2006a(Brázdil et al., , 2012c). Data sources that report droughts in the Czech Lands (for all Czech lo- cations mentioned in this paper see Fig. 1) are mentioned ...
Context 2
... terms of occurrence of the most extreme decades. While the documentary data indicated that the driest decade was 1531-1540, TRW-based Z-index led to the years 1601- 1610. Certain common features were found when frequency of dry months (MAMJJ) was compared with mean recon- structed precipitation totals over the same season for individ- ual decades (Fig. 10). The two data sets were transformed to z-scores for better comparison. In this case, the correla- tion between the two characteristics of dryness is significant (r = −0.39) and evaluation of dryness from two different sources agrees at least partly for most of the decades. Among the most extremely dry decades to appear are those of ...
Context 3
... with a number of natural proxies) were used in a gridded (0.5 × 0.5 deg.) mul- tiproxy precipitation reconstruction for Europe by Pauling et al. (2006). A subset of this reconstruction covering central Europe (48 • N/12 • E-52 • N/18 • E) was compared with the Czech drought chronology in the common 1501-2000 pe- riod at a decadal resolution (Fig. 11). A relatively high and statistically significant correlation was found for JJA values (r = −0.58), implying that the two series share a common variance of about 34 ...
Context 4
... very high inter-decadal variability in both series, numerous common features can be found not only for indi- vidual decades but also for long-term tendencies (Fig. 11). Less frequent droughts were especially typical of the second half of the 16th century and for the 17th century. Conversely, more frequent droughts occurred in the first part of the 16th century, the end of the 18th century and both series also in- dicate more droughts during the 20th century. The subset of European precipitation ...
Similar publications
In the present paper five significant late medieval drought events, occurred in Hungary (4 cases) and Croatia (1 Dalmatian case), are discussed based on contemporary documentary evidence. Information on long-term lack of precipitation, severe annual (or multian-nual) water shortage, extreme low water levels of major rivers or bad harvest and severe...
This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentra...
Citations
... The effects of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology are seen across central Europe [1,2]. Several Czech studies have reported changes in the annual water balance with increased drought frequency and/or severity [3][4][5][6][7]. Unlike in the past, when droughts were typically associated with low precipitation, droughts today seem to be more related to a greater fraction of precipitation returning to the atmosphere via increased evapotranspiration [6,[8][9][10][11]. ...
In this study, we present evidence for a hydrological regime shift in upland central European forests. Using a combination of long-term data, detailed field measurements and modelling, we show that there is a prolonged and persistent decline in annual runoff: precipitation ratios that is most likely linked to longer growing seasons. We performed a long term (1950–2018) water balance simulation for a Czech upland forest headwater catchment calibrated against measured streamflow and transpiration from deciduous and coniferous stands. Simulations were corroborated by long-term (1965–2018) borehole measurements and historical drought reports. A regime shift from positive to negative catchment water balances likely occurred in the early part of this century. Since 2007, annual runoff: precipitation ratios have been below the long-term average. Annual average temperatures have increased, but there have been no notable long term trends in precipitation. Since 1980, there has been a pronounced April warming, likely leading to earlier leaf out and higher annual transpiration, making water unavailable for runoff generation and/or soil moisture recharge. Our results suggest a regime shift due to second order effects of climate change where increased transpiration associated with a longer growing season leads to a shift from light to water limitation in central European forests. This will require new approaches to managing forests where water limitation has previously not been a problem.
... The increased charcoal concentrations may already coincide with a local slash-and-burn strategy as some houses with an agricultural background were being established in the lower part of the village by that time (Klír 2016). This accumulation of charcoal was rather caused by direct local human influence than by frequent fires resulting from droughts that were documented in CL in the 14th century (Brázdil et al. 2013). Mining activities had started in other parts of the Krušné Mts. as early as 250 bc (Veron et al. 2014) and the broader area was concurrently colonized due to mining (Fig. 1). ...
... Abies growth was found to be even more sensitive to summer droughts than Fagus (Cailleret and Davi 2011). Low summer precipitation amounts were reconstructed in CL during the first half of the 16th century ad including long-lasting droughts in ad 1540 (Brázdil et al. 2013;Dobrovolný et al. 2015). On the contrary, wet years were on average reconstructed in the second half of the 16th century ad (Dobrovolný et al. 2015). ...
Medieval vegetation–human–climate interactions were studied from a sediment profile situated in the centre of a short-lived medieval village located above 800 m a.s.l. on the ridge of the Krušné Mts., NW Bohemia, Central Europe. Analyses of pollen, seeds/fruits, micro- and macro-charcoals, diatoms and concentrations of microelements in connection with written sources revealed a significant human-induced deforestation in the second half of the 14th century. This deforestation occurred sooner than supposed and the area did not revert after ad 1347 as elsewhere in Europe. Arable fields probably enabled basic self-sustaining cultivation of winter cereals even at such elevations in the climatically favourable years of the Medieval Warm Period. The village presumably collapsed due to a combination of weather fluctuations at the onset of the Little Ice Age, simultaneous socioeconomic stagnation in the Czech Lands and exploitation of the surrounding forest. The dynamics of wet stand vegetation and Calthion palustris montane wet meadows were driven by fluctuating human and grazing impacts. Annual and biennial herbaceous species that peaked after village abandonment were rapidly replaced by Filipendula ulmaria and Salix stands. The secondary forest developed towards Picea stands. Only later, mesic montane meadows of medium tall grasses combined with Meum athamanticum and mountain dry pastures developed on nutrient poor patches.
... Several papers have addressed the territory of the Czech Lands. Brázdil et al. (2013aBrázdil et al. ( , 2013b presented a chronology of droughts for AD 1090-2012, using documentary evidence and long-term instrumental records. Dobrovolný et al. (2015aDobrovolný et al. ( , 2015b employed precipitation indices and long-term precipitation measure- ments to reconstruct seasonal and annual precipitation totals from AD 1501 onwards. ...
... It is interesting that a similar 'see-saw pattern' to that of 1616 and 1617 was also identified for 1525 and 1526. The very dry spring and summer 1525 are confirmed by doc- umentary evidence from the Czech Lands and Germany (Brázdil et al., 2013a(Brázdil et al., , 2013b) and also by document-based reconstruction. The dry year of 1525 was followed by an extremely wet MJJ in 1526 according to Bohemian oak TRW chronology. ...
... The dry year of 1525 was followed by an extremely wet MJJ in 1526 according to Bohemian oak TRW chronology. However, the exceedingly wet character of this year was not confirmed directly from documentary evidence, which refers only to a cold and snowy winter in central Europe (Brázdil et al., 2013a(Brázdil et al., , 2013b. ...
This contribution presents a near-millennium-long reconstruction of May–July (MJJ) precipitation for Bohemia, the western part of the recent Czech Republic. A well-replicated chronology of oak (Quercus spp.) tree-ring width (TRW) measurements covering the 1040–2013 period was employed as a high-resolution hydroclimatic proxy. Standardized TRW indices were calibrated to selected grid points from the CRU precipitation database, covering the geographical distribution of the oak data used. The oak TRW chronology explains 34% of MJJ precipitation variability during the 1901–1980 period used for calibration. Although the relationship between oak TRW and target data was relatively stable for this period, the coherence drops significantly beyond it. However, two independent verification periods reveal highly positive reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Less formal verification based on direct comparison with 14 European proxy-based reconstructions further suggests relatively good agreement in the temporal occurrence of above/below mean late spring–early summer precipitation totals, especially in the 16th–17th centuries. The new MJJ precipitation reconstruction is restricted to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, which is in line with our understanding of natural precipitation variability. Reconstruction reveals two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s. It also demonstrates that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. Negative trends in soil moisture content and gradual changes in annual precipitation distribution leading to higher extremity of precipitation regime may be responsible for the lower sensitivity of oaks to precipitation after the 1980s. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation.
... The performance of young coppice oaks compared to standards were compared in perspective of dryer climate events under four different light categories. As drought events from the 1990's in central Europe evidently increase (Trnka et al., 2011), the rise of temperatures is reported to be more influential than decrease in precipitation (Brázdil et al., 2013Brázdil et al., , Čater 2015). In regions prone to drought, heat exposure in canopy gaps and an increase in temperature at ground level are detrimental to plant germination. ...
Assimilation and photosynthetic efficiency (maximal quantum yield) of young oaks were compared in coppice and standard sessile oak stands of comparable age (100 years) under different light intensity categories: under minimum light – ISF < 20%, low light – 20%<ISF<25%, medium light – 25%<ISF<30% and in the open, without mature canopy cover – ISF >30% during favourable and drought conditions. Measurements of maximal assimilation rates were performed at a constant temperature of the measurement block (20°C), a CO 2 concentration of 400 µmol/l, flow 500 µmol/s and different light intensities: 0, 50, 250, 600, 1200 and 1800 µmol/m 2 s during three consecutive growing seasons (2012, 2013 and 2014). In every category at least 8 young naturally regenerated seedlings and sprouts of different coppice stools were measured. The quantum yield in optimal conditions in standards was highest in the category of closed canopy, while in coppices in medium light category. During severe drought in 2013 the drop in efficiency of standards was evident in all categories, while in coppices no differences in efficiency were observed between favourable 2012 and 2013 with expressed drought stress, proving the advantage of young coppices over standards in this particular light category. However, the beneficial effects of restoration coppicing are not guaranteed. It is our belief that in time such advantage might decrease; it would be therefore interesting to compare responses in time and define, when response abilities of both studied systems become equal.
... heat and devastating hails: 1507, locust invasion: 1474–1479). In the recent decade regional overviews, including the Middle Ages were published concerning the Czech Lands (Brázdil et al., 2013), Germany (included in: e.g. Glaser, 2008), for the Eastern Alpine region (included in: Rohr, 2007 – medieval extremes). ...
... The term 'drought,' with clearly indicating serious water deficit for a longer period of time, can sometimes have slightly different meanings: meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural and socio-economic drought have their own definitions in the different disciplines (e.g. Heim, 2002; Pálfai, 2004; Brázdil et al., 2013). In historical documentary evidence one can often find descriptions referring to drought either in its agricultural drought (i.e. ...
... It is interesting to conclude that, concerning our discussed late medieval drought events, currently we find almost no parallels in known medieval Austrian documentation (only 1473: on year earlier than reported for Hungary). In the Czech Lands, based on various types of contemporary source evidence, shorter or longer periods of dry weather and/or drought events were identified in the following years: 1091, 1121, 1128, 1177, 1194, 1252, 1260, 1262, 1266, 1283, 1307, 1312, 1315, 1326, 1328, 1333, 1334, 1337, 1348, 1352, 1368, 1369, 1371, 1393, 1423, 1425, 1432, 1441, 1442, 1461, 1469, 1471, 1473, 1476, 1480, 1482, 1501, 1503, 1504, 1506, 1509, 1512, 1513, 1516, 1517, 1518, 1520, 1525 (see Brázdil and Kotyza, 1995 Brázdil et al., 2013:Table 1 andFig. 3). ...
In the present paper five significant late medieval drought events, occurred in Hungary (4 cases) and Croatia (1 Dalmatian case), are discussed based on contemporary documentary evidence. Information on long-term lack of precipitation, severe annual (or multian-nual) water shortage, extreme low water levels of major rivers or bad harvest and severe food shortage in 1362, 1474, 1479, 1494 and 1507, often accompanied or followed by locust invasions, were documented both in narratives, account books, charters and letters. Apart from causing food shortage or difficulties in transportation (e.g. of salt), these greatest known documented drought events of medieval Hungary were blamed for weakening the country's military defence (e.g. low water levels) and providing good opportunities for Ottoman-Turkish attacks. These great drought events sometimes occurred one year later than those of the neighbouring areas in Central Europe – a fact that can be probably explained by the bi-or multi-annual nature of dry spells (e.g. in and around 1474, 1479, 1507) that does not necessarily fit the frame of a calendar year.
... Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought could fundamentally alter farming systems, although intensive farming systems in central Europe are less sensitive to climate change than those in south-eastern Europe (Chloupek et al., 2004;. After floods, droughts are known to be the most severe natural disasters in the Czech Republic, a fact that lends urgency to drought studies from various points of view (Brázdil et al., 2013). Moreover, in the Czech Republic in 2012 and 2013 extreme drought and floods episodes occurred, respectively. ...
... An alternative approach between the SPI and the PDSI was the SPEI proposed by Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010), which uses monthly differences between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the past four years the recently developed SPEI has been used extensively in climatology and hydrological studies (e.g., Potop, 2011;Heim and Brewer, 2012;Li et al., 2012;Paulo et al., 2012;Beguería et al., 2013;Brázdil et al., 2013;Yu et al., 2014). A recent study conducted by Ma et al. (2013) acknowledged some critical drawbacks of the climatic water balance adopted by the SPEI compared with that defined by the PDSI. ...
In this study we investigated the influence of drought on crop productivity and, in particular, the drought time-scales that affect the growth of eleven agricultural crops with growth cycles of different lengths in the Czech Republic. In addition, the performance of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at various lags for the assessment of agricultural drought risks was determined. The SPEI was used to quantify the drought (wet) conditions for each month of the year and 24 accumulated lags for 304 climatological stations from 1961 to 2012. The temporal evolution of the standardised yield residuals series (SYRS) of 11 agricultural crops (spring wheat, winter wheat, spring barley, winter barley, winter rye, oats, oilseed rape, maize, sugar beet, potatoes, and grapevine) over a period of 52 years were conducted. To summarise the correlation analyses and compare the drought effect among crops, we found differences in the responses of agricultural crops to different lags of the SPEI. However, the monthly de-trended SPEI had a relatively strong association with SYRS at critical growth stages of the crops. The greatest yield-drought correlation was for cereals (r = 0.52–0.60; May–June), and the least yield-drought correlation was for grapes (r = 0.31; early flowering and berry growth). If one compares the frequency of drought between 1961–1980 and 2001–2012, it is evident that over the past 12 years, the drought risk in the April–June period has increased by more than one fold. Drought during the April–June period became a factor explaining a considerable proportion of the yield variability. We found that drought risk expressed in terms of the SPEI at 1-, 3-, and 6-month lags is an increasing problem during the early stages of root and tuber crops.
... Seneviratne et al. 2010; Mueller and Seneviratne 2012), estimates of seasonal precipitation are needed to validate and find the plausibility of the duration and magnitude of the record-breaking heat wave temperatures in 1540. Extreme droughts over recent centuries were analysed for the Czech Lands (Brázdil et al. 2013a) and for Switzerland (BUWAL 2004). Several authors have claimed that the drought of 1540 was outstanding (Pfister 1984; Glaser et al. 1999; Brázdil et al. 2013a). ...
... Extreme droughts over recent centuries were analysed for the Czech Lands (Brázdil et al. 2013a) and for Switzerland (BUWAL 2004). Several authors have claimed that the drought of 1540 was outstanding (Pfister 1984; Glaser et al. 1999; Brázdil et al. 2013a). Casty et al. (2005) concluded that the years 1540, 1921 and 2003 were very likely to have been the driest in the context of the past 500 years in the Greater Alpine area. ...
... Oeno-phenological proxy evidence suggests that August and September temperatures were likely at the same level as in 2003 (Wetter and Pfister 2013). Coherent narrative reports by independent contemporary chroniclers indicate that, unlike in 2003, the weather in the following months (October– December) was sunny and warm " like in April " until the end of the year, without any frost or snow (Brázdil et al. 2013a; Wetter and Pfister 2013). ...
The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring-summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km(2), we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
As a continuation of the first paper from the late medieval drought series related to medieval Hungary, we present, analyse and compare further late medieval drought data, based on contemporary direct and indirect written sources. The evidence derived from documentary sources referring to the droughts and dry spells in 1361, 1439, 1473, 1480, 1482(?), 1502-1503 and 1506 are further compared to the recent tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction of the OWDA (Old World Drought Atlas), and similarities, differences and complementary information are discussed in more detail. Additionally, documentary evidence related to Danube low water-levels of 1443, 1444, 1455 and 1502 are as well presented in a broader context: these cases provide evidence on the hydrological conditions of the Upper-Danube catchment, and not on the Carpathian Basin. The OWDA evidence in most cases shows good agreement with the discussed documentary-based drought reports, some differences in the spatial extension and intensity of the drought were only exceptionally detected (e.g. 1455, 1507). Most of the written documentation refer to droughts that covered more than one calendar years.
This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N-year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader central European context.
