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Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapo-transpiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations...
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... study was conducted at the watershed 'La Rosilla', which drains into the 'La Rosilla II' reservoir; both located at the Ejido La Victoria, Municipality of Pueblo Nuevo, Durango, Mexico. The watershed covers an area of 944 ha and spans 23° 44´0044´00" north latitude and 105° 27´00 27´00" west longitude, at the southwestern portion of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountain of Durango, Mexico (Figure 1). ...Similar publications
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This study analyzes the climate change in Korea and its impact on the occurrence of forest fire events. The forest fire occurrences in Korea tend to concentrate around large cities. In addition, the spatial distribution of the forest fire occurrence seems to agree with local climate conditions. Though the occurrence of the forest fire shows strong...
Citations
... As one of the most transformative perturbation in forest ecosystem, fire plays an important role in forest hydrological processes by altering tree density, canopy openness, biomass, and species composition of forest ecosystems (Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013;Su et al., 2022;Su et al., 2023;Venkatesh et al., 2020). Numerous studies have investigated the responses of forest hydrological processes to fire, including the consumption of standing dead trees, litter layer, and soil organic matter, which can lead to enhanced soil water repellency and reduced infiltration ability (Fernández et al., 2019;Plaza-Álvarez et al., 2018). ...
Forest fires, as a prominent main natural disturbance in forest ecosystems, have a critical influence on hydrological processes through the alteration of forest stand structure. Despite throughfall (TF) being the dominant component of rainfall partitioning in forest ecosystems, limited research has thoroughly investigated how forest fire affects the spatial and temporal patterns of TF. This study examined TF patterns in response to low-severity fire in a coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest in Central China. Our results showed that TF exhibited an increasing trend regarding gross rainfall, and its variability decreased with increasing gross rainfall regardless of burning states. Low-severity fire induced a considerable enhancement in TF rate, enhancing it from 71.1% to 77.9%, and increased the coefficient of variation from 19.4% to 23.9%. Additionally, TF temporal patterns of burned forest were found to be marginally less stable than unburned forest. We used a sample size of 16 and 25 for unburned and burned forests, respectively, to accurately and reliably acquire TF with an accepted error of 10% and a 95% confidence level. Our findings suggest that low-severity fire can enhance TF yield and variability, decrease temporal stability. Moreover , we recommend increasing the sample size of burned forest to ensure the collection of representative TF. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding and improve the prediction of forest hydrological processes in response to fire and optimize the sampling scheme of TF. K E Y W O R D S forest hydrology, low-severity fire, sample size, throughfall, water budget
... Fire activity is becoming more frequent and severe with the intensification of climate warming (Anderegg et al., 2013;Lacroix et al., 2020;Näthe et al., 2018a). As a crucial anthropogenic or natural disturbance in forest ecosystem, fire can profoundly influence plant traits (such as community composition, canopy openness, bark structure, and foliage volume) and health states, with subsequent impacts on rainfall partitioning (Návar and Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013;Stoof et al., 2012;Williams et al., 2015). Forest fire, which plays a role in forest thinning, can lead to several dead trees. ...
As climate change intensifies, fires events are predicted to increase in forest ecosystems. Fire alters the ecosystem structure and consequently, the hydrological cycle. However, little is known about the impacts of forest fire on stemflow. A field experiment was conducted to evaluate the short-term response of stemflow production to low-severity fire in a coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest. Results demonstrated low-severity fire changed stemflow yield and had insignificant effect on the correlation between stemflow efficiency and rainfall or plant morphological variables. In unburned site Quercus acutissima and Pinus massoniana and in burned site Q. acutissima and P. massoniana, stemflow percentage averaged 3.86, 0.37, 1.20, and 0.47 %, whereas funneling ratio averaged 38.8, 4.2, 11.4, and 5.1, respectively. Fire substantially decreased the stemflow percentage and funneling ratio of Q. acutissima (P < 0.05) and slightly enhanced P. massoniana (P > 0.05). The responses of stemflow production to fire differed significantly between oak and pine trees. Fire made Q. acutissima become less effective in funneling rain to the forest ground, which is attributed to that the scaly bark was burned to highly furrowed bark that delivers less water to tree base. Burned P. massoniana was more productive in draining stemflow relative to unburned trees and is attributed to the bark which was still flaky regardless of. Additionally, the higher canopy openness allows more rain to funnel to the trunk. Stemflow efficiency was reduced in response to fire and limited the transfer of water and nutrients from canopy to soil and can reduce the competitiveness of Q. acutissima after fire disturbance.
... The precipitation records from these reservoir sites do not appear to show the potential effects of the 2000-2019 mega-drought (Williams et al., 2020) but instead show interaction with the composite of the climate cycles that appear to create long periods of predominantly wet-years (1965-81, 2002-04 and 2005-19); indicated as increasing cumulative departure of annual and summer precipitation (Fig. 3a). The drier-year periods observed in La Boquilla and FIM are similar to those identified in forests to southwest of Chihuahua but with oscillations of different magnitude and duration driven by climate variability (Návar and Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). many of these periods differ from known wet and dry-year periods from the southwestern United States, such as the severe droughts of 1976-77 and 1987-92 (Hanson, 2003, even in an area as close as Las Cruces, New Mexico that showed predominantly dry years from 2003 to 2014. ...
Study region
This is study of the Rio Conchos Watershed, Chihuahua, Mexico.
Study focus
This study provides assessment of climate variability from analysis of instrumental climate and reservoir operations data, plus nearby tree-ring indices in Chihuahua, Mexico. Water demand include international treaty deliveries, growing agricultural land use, and intensified crop production. Analysis of climate cycles includes frequency analysis of local multidecadal instrumental hydrologic time series and multi-century tree-ring indices. In addition, tree-ring indices were compared with ¹⁴C content in tree rings to assess the presence of the millennial solar cycle.
New hydrological insights for the region
Most of the climate variability within inter-annual to interdecadal periods are aligned with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like climate cycles. New multi-century climate cycles were discovered from tree-ring indices that have a profound impact on sustainability of food and water security. Historical droughts of 8-year average duration within PDO-like cycles that span longer (12–43 year) periods were newly identified which are longer than the 5-year delivery cycles used in the 1944 International Treaty of the Rivers. Mega-droughts were discovered to occur within multi-century climate cycles. Multi-century cycles identified in tree-ring indices were likely driven by solar luminosity changes from the millennial solar cycle and not just recent anthropogenic climate change. Climate variability and temperature increases will further amplify cycles of supply and demand and exacerbate sustainability, mitigation, and management strategies. Conjunctive use combined with reservoir operations will broaden sustainability portfolio of options, reducing demand effects as well as enhance supply options and replenishment effects.
... This variable is therefore an accurate metric of the extent to which the atmosphere can extract moisture from the land surface . In Mexico, some studies have addressed the relationship between climate and forest fires using rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration (e.g., Drury & Veblen, 2008;Manzo-Delgado et al., 2004Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). However, no previous studies have evaluated the relationship between climatic variable VPD and the occurrence of fires in semi-arid regions. ...
... However, no previous studies have evaluated the relationship between climatic variable VPD and the occurrence of fires in semi-arid regions. According to Návar and Lizárraga-Mendiola (2013), soil water deficits or drought spells could be associated with forest fires that occurred in the last two decades in northern forested watersheds in the state of Durango. Another study used the standardized precipitationevapotranspiration index to analyze this relationship (Pompa-García et al., 2018). ...
Fires can pose a threat to forest ecosystems when those ecosystems are not fire-adapted or when forest community conditions make them vulnerable to wildfires. Thus, investigating fire-prone environmental conditions is urgently needed to create action plans that preserve these ecosystems. In this sense, climate variables can determine the environmental conditions favorable for forest fires. Our study confirms that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is an essential climate indicator for forest fires, as it is related to maximum temperatures and low humidity, representing the stress conditions for vegetation prone to fires. This study explores the extent to which ENSO phases can modulate climatic conditions that lead to high VPD over Guanajuato, a semi-arid region in central Mexico, during the dry season (March–April-May). Using fire occurrence data from MODIS (2000–2019) and Landsat 5 (1998–1999), we developed a climatic probability model for the occurrence of forest fires using VPD estimated from ERA5 reanalysis for each ENSO phase. We found that VPD and the occurrence of forest fires were higher during El Niño than under Neutral and La Niña years, with a higher risk of forest fire occurrence in Guanajuato’s southern region. This study concludes that it is necessary to implement regional and local fire management plans, especially where the largest number of natural protected areas is located.
... In contrast, there are a limited number of studies with a focus on the analysis of historical series of observed data in order to obtain models that represent the characteristics of the variations and allow short-term prediction. Thus, prediction models can serve to help with local needs (such as the planning of interventions for agricultural or forest pests, forest fires, rural buildings, and agricultural crops) [29]. This is the case for the use of ARIMA models [26]. ...
Time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation are two of the climatic variables most easily obtained from weather station records. There are many studies analyzing historical series of these variables, particularly in the Spanish territory. In this study, the series of these two variables in 47 stations of the provincial capitals of mainland Spain were analyzed. The series cover time periods from the 1940s to 2013; the studies reviewed in mainland Spain go up to 2008. ARIMA models were used to represent their variation. In the preliminary phase of description and identification of the model, a study to detect possible trends in the series was carried out in an isolated manner. Significant trends were found in 15 of the temperature series, and there were trends in precipitation in only five of them. The results obtained for the trends are discussed with reference to those of other, more detailed studies in the different regions, confirming whether the same trend was maintained over time. With the ARIMA models obtained, 12-month predictions were made by measuring errors with the observed data. More than 50% of the series of both were modeled. Predictions with these models could be useful in different aspects of seasonal job planning, such as wildfires, pests and diseases, and agricultural crops.
... Gottfried et al., 2012;Alagador et al., 2014), snowpack and flooding (e.g. Brown and Robinson, 2011), forest fire (e.g. Návar and Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013) and even human influences (e.g. Bonfils et al., 2008), our study may be unique, in the sense that it provides -for the first time-a global perspective of climate variability in a wide range of mountain systems with different latitudinal, topographical and climatic characteristics. ...
The observed climate response and variability that has occurred over the five decades since 1960 of 13 largest global mountain regimes (i.e. the European Alps, Anatolia, Andes, Applach, Atlas, Australian, Brooks, Ethiopian, Himalaya, Kolyma, Rocky, Pyrenees, and Scandinavian) to climate variability. This study covers the period 1960-2013, with a particular emphasis on changes in air temperature and precipitation conditions and their joint modes. Results demonstrate that mountains of high-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. Brooks, Kolyma, and Scandenavia) experienced the largest trends of air temperature (0.24 - 0.45° C/decade). In contrast, changes in air temperature in mountains of the Southern Hemisphere (e.g. Australian and most of the Andes) and the subtropics (e.g. Ethiopian mountains) were generally weaker than those of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, temperature changes were stronger in low- and mid-elevation regions (e.g. Alps, Pyrenees, Brooks, and Kolyma), compared to the most elevated regions (e.g. Himalaya and Andes). Precipitation exhibited heterogeneous changes, with pronounced decrease over the Alps, Pyrenean and Ethiopian mountains and conversely significant increase across the northern high-latitudes mountains (e.g. Scandinavian and Applach). Factor analysis was also used to identify common patterns of interannual variability among all mountain systems. Results suggest three components with distinctive temporal evolution that explain together 72.72% of air temperature variability. In contrast, the temporal evolution of annual precipitation was more heterogeneous, with six components accounting for 68.59% of precipitation variability. This study also accounted for the possible joint changes in air temperature and precipitation by assessing changes in four different climatic modes (i.e. warm and wet [WW], warm and dry [WD], cold and wet [CW] and cold and dry [CD]), Changes in air temperature, precipitation and their joint modes were further linked to a range of the key circulation patterns over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, e.g. the Atlantic Meridional Mode [AMO], the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], the Arctic Oscillation [AO], the Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], and the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]. Results of this work can advances our knowledge of the role of climate variability and change in mountain environments, giving insights into their possible ramifications for different environmental and socioeconomic sectors (e.g. freshwater supply, hydropower generation, biodiversity conservation, …etc).
Keywords
Precipitation; Air temperature; Climate modes; Topographic gradients; Circulation patterns; Mountains
... In addition to these pioneering studies, previous work on fire risk in Mexico has focused on the influence of climate and fuels at regional and local scales. Several studies analyzed climatic effects on fire regimes (e.g., Heyerdahl and Alvarado 2003;Fulé et al. 2005;Drury and Veblen 2008;Skinner et al. 2008;Návar-Cháidez and Lizárraga-Mendiola 2013). Others evaluated the role of weather variables such as precipitation or temperature (e.g., Avila-Flores et al. 2010a;Avila-Flores et al. 2010b;Carrillo García et al. 2012;Antonio and Ellis 2015), or weather-based indices (e.g., Villers-Ruiz et al. 2012) on fire occurrence risk, mainly at local or regional scales. ...
Background: Understanding the temporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationships with fuel dryness is key to sound fire management, especially under increasing global warming. At present, no system for prediction of fire occurrence risk based on fuel dryness conditions is available in Mexico. As part of an ongoing national-scale project, we developed an operational fire risk mapping tool based on satellite and weather information. Results: We demonstrated how differing monthly temporal trends in a fuel greenness index, dead ratio (DR), and fire density (FDI) can be clearly differentiated by vegetation type and region for the whole country, using MODIS satellite observations for the period 2003 to 2014. We tested linear and non-linear models, including temporal autocorrelation terms, for prediction of FDI from DR for a total of 28 combinations of vegetation types and regions. In addition, we developed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting DR values based on the last observed values. Most ARIMA models showed values of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2 adj) above 0.7 to 0.8, suggesting potential to forecast fuel dryness and fire occurrence risk conditions. The best fitted models explained more than 70% of the observed FDI variation in the relation between monthly DR and fire density. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is potential for the DR index to be incorporated in future fire risk operational tools. However, some vegetation types and regions show lower correlations between DR and observed fire density, suggesting that other variables, such as distance and timing of agricultural burn, deserve attention in future studies.
... Since antecedent SM is one of the most important controls in flood forecasts, monitoring temporal and spatial variation of SM is a necessity (Mishra et al. 2004;Tombul 2007;Srivastava et al. 2013;Zhuo et al. 2015). SM monitoring can be performed by ground measurements (Tombul 2007;Srivastava et al. 2013), modeling studies (Návar 2013;Zhuo et al. 2015) or by remote sensing (Lievens et al. 2015;Leroux et al. 2016). Although ground (Tombul 2007;Srivastava et al. 2013). ...
Rainfall rates and soil moisture content have been recognized as the most critical parameters in flood forecasts; the former known as forcing and the latter as the state variable. The main objective of this article is the incorporation of antecedent soil moisture information to reduce false flood warnings over Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia. The forcing variable was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Real Time (RT) data (3B42RT). Soil moisture (SM) information was obtained from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) as the state variable. Long time series SM information (2002–2011) provided Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of SM. CDF with 90% was taken as the SM threshold value. Flooding is indicated for rainy dates exceeding the rain thresholds with the previous satellite overpass SM being greater than 90% CDF of the respective month. The methodology removed the false flood warnings substantially when compared to the flood warnings where SM information was absent. The method is robust and simple, and it can be applied on TRMM and AMSR-E follow on missions; like Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP).
... El crecimiento forestal depende de la especie, edad, densidad de masa, calidad del suelo y clima (Skovsgaard & Vanclay, 2008), y el efecto combinado de estos factores se registra en el ancho de anillos de la especie (Esper, Benz, & Pederson, 2012;Matisons, Elferts, & Brūmelis, 2013). Los anillos de los árboles de especies sensibles al clima conservan información acerca de los patrones cíclicos de crecimiento y de las relaciones con el clima, proporcionando información útil para propósitos de modelación y predicción (Matisons et al., 2013;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). ...
... Franco), debido a su sensibilidad para captar señales de eventos cíclicos del clima (Cerano, Villanueva, Valdéz, Méndez, & Constante, 2011;González-Elizondo et al., 2005;Griesbauer & Scott, 2010;Gugger, González-Rodríguez, Rodríguez-Correa, Sugita, & Cavender-Bares, 2011), pero la confiabilidad de esa periodicidad no se ha estudiado en modelos de predicción. El análisis de serie de tiempo de la especie abeto Douglas ayudaría a confirmar los eventos extremos pasados en patrones de circulación atmosférica, escasez de recursos hídricos e impacto socioeconómico en la población (Cerano et al., 2011;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). Recientemente, el uso del análisis de series de tiempo, combinado con isótopos de madera, y la dendrocronología han demostrado ser útiles para describir la relación de la fisiología de los árboles y la variabilidad del clima de acuerdo con el aumento de CO 2 atmosférico (Monserud & Marshall, 2001;Roden, Johnstone, & Dawson, 2011;Swetnam & Lynch, 1993). ...
... Forest growth depends on tree species, age, stand density, soil quality and climate (Skovsgaard & Vanclay, 2008), and the combined effect of these factors is registered in the ring width of forest species (Esper, Benz, & Pederson, 2012;Matisons, Elferts, & Brūmelis, 2013). Tree-rings of climate sensitive species preserve information about cyclic patterns of tree growth and climate relationships, providing useful information for modeling and forecasting purposes (Matisons et al., 2013;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). ...
Tree species like Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco (Douglas-fir) are sensitive to climate cycles and show well defined growth rings. The careful selection of dominant trees with circular trunk section allow the analysis of tree growth trajectories. In this study, we used direct measurements of basal area increment (BAI) to explain biological periodicity and forecast basal area growth of Douglas-fir growing in Western Mexico. To remove the age effect on tree growth we also ran the analysis in terms of cambial age. Results showed significant (P < 0.05) correlation between BAI and precipitation from January to July. We found periodicities in tree growth of 7, 21, 27 and 60 years. However, the 60-year period, was determinant to build an ARIMA model (0,1,1), to forecast BAI for the next decades. Tree growth projections suggest reduced BAI in mature dominant trees for the next decades. Decreased tree-growth is an unexpected result, as BAI in dominant trees remains constant up to the biological age. Our finding is concurrent with a general decrement in tree growth in other forests of the world due to water stress, which suggests that the future climatic variability may worsen health conditions of Douglas-fir forests in North Mexico.
... El crecimiento forestal depende de la especie, edad, densidad de masa, calidad del suelo y clima (Skovsgaard & Vanclay, 2008), y el efecto combinado de estos factores se registra en el ancho de anillos de la especie (Esper, Benz, & Pederson, 2012;Matisons, Elferts, & Brūmelis, 2013). Los anillos de los árboles de especies sensibles al clima conservan información acerca de los patrones cíclicos de crecimiento y de las relaciones con el clima, proporcionando información útil para propósitos de modelación y predicción (Matisons et al., 2013;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). ...
... Franco), debido a su sensibilidad para captar señales de eventos cíclicos del clima (Cerano, Villanueva, Valdéz, Méndez, & Constante, 2011;González-Elizondo et al., 2005;Griesbauer & Scott, 2010;Gugger, González-Rodríguez, Rodríguez-Correa, Sugita, & Cavender-Bares, 2011), pero la confiabilidad de esa periodicidad no se ha estudiado en modelos de predicción. El análisis de serie de tiempo de la especie abeto Douglas ayudaría a confirmar los eventos extremos pasados en patrones de circulación atmosférica, escasez de recursos hídricos e impacto socioeconómico en la población (Cerano et al., 2011;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). Recientemente, el uso del análisis de series de tiempo, combinado con isótopos de madera, y la dendrocronología han demostrado ser útiles para describir la relación de la fisiología de los árboles y la variabilidad del clima de acuerdo con el aumento de CO 2 atmosférico (Monserud & Marshall, 2001;Roden, Johnstone, & Dawson, 2011;Swetnam & Lynch, 1993). ...
... Forest growth depends on tree species, age, stand density, soil quality and climate (Skovsgaard & Vanclay, 2008), and the combined effect of these factors is registered in the ring width of forest species (Esper, Benz, & Pederson, 2012;Matisons, Elferts, & Brūmelis, 2013). Tree-rings of climate sensitive species preserve information about cyclic patterns of tree growth and climate relationships, providing useful information for modeling and forecasting purposes (Matisons et al., 2013;Návar & Lizárraga-Mendiola, 2013). ...
