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Location of study sites within the Lower Mekong Basin. Map inset sources: National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, HERE, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC
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Climate change is increasingly affecting rural areas worldwide. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is at particular risk due to heat stress, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent and extreme climatic events. It is imperative that local-level adaptation plans are developed in a manner that builds resilience to these growing thre...
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... Vietnam is similarly vulnerable; it is currently sixth among countries that have suffered the most from climate change over the last two decades [2]. It is one of nine countries in which at least 50 million people are at risk of exposure to, among other things, increasing sea levels, saltwater intrusion, and powerful storms [12,13]. With over 3200 km long of coastline, shrimp aquaculture, rice-based cropping, and fisheries are three distinct systems in Vietnam, and these sectors are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change [14,15]. ...
Farm households along the coastlines of Myanmar and Vietnam are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, saltwater intrusion, and rising sea levels. There is little information available on the relative vulnerability of men- and women-headed households, and the governments of Myanmar and Vietnam have not identified or implemented any adaptive measures aimed specifically at vulnerable peoples. This study aims to fill these gaps and assess the relative climate change vulnerability of men- and women-headed farm households. This study considers 599 farm households from two regions of Myanmar and 300 households from Thua Thien Hue province of Vietnam for the period 2021–2022. We offer a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) analysis of men- and women-headed farm households using 46 indicators arranged into seven major components. The aggregate LVI scores indicate that farm households in Myanmar are more vulnerable (scores of 0.459 for men and 0.476 for women) to climate-related natural disasters than farm households in Vietnam (scores of 0.288 for men and 0.292 for women), regardless of the gender of the head of household. Total vulnerability indexing scores indicate that women-headed households are more vulnerable than men-headed households in both countries. Poor adaptive capacity and highly sensitive LVI dimensional scores explain the greater vulnerability of women-headed farm households. The findings also highlight the importance of the adaptive capacity components reflected in the LVI analysis in reducing farm households’ vulnerability.
... The main crop in the basin is rice. The planting dates vary from April to July, and the corresponding harvest dates are from September to November [36]. The study area is shown in Figure 1. ...
Climate change has had a strong impact on grain production in the Lower Lancang–Mekong River Basin (LMB). Studies have explored the response of LMB rice yield to climate change, but most of them were based on climate projection data before CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). Based on the latest CMIP6 climate projection data and considering three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), this study used the crop growth model (AquaCrop) to simulate and project the LMB rice yield and analyzed the correlation between the yield and the temperature and precipitation during the growth period. The results show that the output of rice yield will increase in the future, with greater yield increases in the SSP5-8.5 scenario (about 35%) than in the SSP2-4.5 (about 15.8%) and SSP1-2.6 (about 9.3%) scenarios. The average temperature of the rice growth period will increase by 1.6 °C, 2.4 °C, and 3.7 °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The rice yield was predicted to have a significant positive response to the increase in temperature in the near future (2021–2060). In the far future (2061–2100), the rice yield will continue this positive response under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) with increasing temperature, while the rice yield under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6) would be negatively correlated with the temperature. There will be a small increase in precipitation during the rice growth period of LMB in the future, but the impact of the precipitation on the rice yield is not obvious. The correlation between the two is not high, and the impact of the precipitation on the yield is more uncertain. This result is valuable for the management of the rice cultivation and irrigation system in the LMB, and it will help the government to adapt the impact of climate change on the rice production, which may contribute to the food security of the LMB under climate change.
... Community-based adaptation: Community-based adaptation (CBA) (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.3.3.2) enhances resilience and sustainability of adaptation plans (Ford et al., 2016;Fernandes-Jesus et al., 2017;Grantham and Rudd, 2017;Gustafson et al., 2017). Yet negative impacts occur if it fails to fairly represent vulnerable populations and to foster long-term social resilience (Ensor, 2016;Taylor Aiken et al., 2017). ...
... Aquaculture production can be disrupted by extreme weather events and unusual seasons. Important climate-related risks vary from place to place, and often include floods (Rutkayov a et al., 2018;Seekao & Pharino, 2016), droughts (Ahmed & Diana, 2016;Anh, 2016;Lebel et al., 2015b), storm surges (Dubey et al., 2017), intense rainfall events (Navy et al., 2017), extreme high temperatures (Gustafson et al., 2018), and periods with dense cloud cover (Lebel et al., 2016;Sriyasak et al., 2015). Climate-related risk usually need to be managed alongside risks of disease (Bergfjord, 2009), low quality inputs (Alam & Guttormsen, 2019), and low market prices (Joffre et al., 2018). ...
As comparative multi-country studies are rare, not much is known about the effects of regional differences in social-ecological conditions on the adoption of climate risk management practices in aquaculture. This study is based on a large-scale survey of practices of aquaculture operators in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Climate-related risks to profits of aquaculture farms in the Mekong Region are typically managed alongside water-related, disease and other business risks. Farmers who were more concerned with risks to profitability had a history of undertaking more risk management practices. Farmers growing shrimp (rather than fish), or adopting more intensified production systems, had more risk management practices. Wealthier and more educated farmers had experience with more practices for dealing with current risks, as well as recognized the need for strategies to adapt to a changing climate in the future. Information access is a factor in the adoption of new practices and strategies. Adoption of aeration or use of information-communication technologies to manage climate-related risks, for example, was more likely among more educated and wealthy farmers who belonged to growers’ groups. The findings also suggest that attitudes toward innovation, levels of investment and social norms influence adoption of technological, organizational and informational practices.
... Research on the integration of local knowledge and scientific perspectives in natural resource management has become more common since the turn of the millennium (Bohensky and Maru 2011). Examples of integrating multiple knowledges are found across river and floodplain management (Hillman 2009), community-based forest management (Mendoza and Prabhu 2005), spatial planning (McCall and Dunn 2012), disaster risk reduction (DRR) (Mercer et al. 2007;Hiwasaki et al. 2014), weather forecasting (Kniveton et al. 2014), and climate change adaptation (Ceccato et al. 2011;Gustafson et al. 2018). In the lower Mekong Basin, Gustafson et al. (2018) reported an integrated approach to vulnerability assessment that drew on community members' knowledge and scientific modeling to identify climate-related threats and vulnerabilities, in order to co-design an effective climate change adaptation plan. ...
... Examples of integrating multiple knowledges are found across river and floodplain management (Hillman 2009), community-based forest management (Mendoza and Prabhu 2005), spatial planning (McCall and Dunn 2012), disaster risk reduction (DRR) (Mercer et al. 2007;Hiwasaki et al. 2014), weather forecasting (Kniveton et al. 2014), and climate change adaptation (Ceccato et al. 2011;Gustafson et al. 2018). In the lower Mekong Basin, Gustafson et al. (2018) reported an integrated approach to vulnerability assessment that drew on community members' knowledge and scientific modeling to identify climate-related threats and vulnerabilities, in order to co-design an effective climate change adaptation plan. Consideration of different forms of knowledge combines rich local experiences with broader understanding of the global context. ...
Integrating local knowledge and scientific information can aid in co-developing locally relevant approaches for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Communities along the Mekong River have adapted to variability in temperature, rainfall, and flooding patterns over time. Rapid environmental change in the Mekong Basin presents a new set of challenges related to drought, altered seasonal rainfall, more frequent high-flow flood events, and water withdrawals for hydropower and irrigation. We present a multi-method approach to understand how local knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of floods, droughts, and rainfall can be integrated with scientific information along a flood-prone section of the lower Mekong River in Kratie Province, Cambodia. Participatory hazard mapping of community members’ knowledge of the movement of floodwaters through the landscape enabled interpretation of flood extent mapping using Synthetic Aperture Radar images from the Sentinel-1A satellite. Seasonal calendars of weather patterns and livelihood activities, together with local indicators of flooding, rainfall, and drought were compared with trends in 35 years of rainfall data, and highlighted “pressure points” at the beginning and end of the rainy season where agriculture may be particularly impacted by climate change. We discuss potential applications of our findings for adaptation and hazard planning.
... Some recent studies have presented adverse scenarios involving the severe impacts of climate change. Compared to previous articles, the current studies indicate that due to CC issues, many delta regions will be affected earlier and more severely in various parts of the world, such as the Vietnam Delta River, Myanmar, China, and other countries [1][2][3][4][5]. An estimation has shown that 150 to 200 million climate migrants may be affected due to the impacts of environmental issues by 2050 [6,7]. ...
... Vietnam, in particular, is among the nine countries where at least 50 million people will be exposed to the impacts of rising sea levels and more powerful storms, among other dangers [6]. Then, in the next couple of decades, Vietnam is also one of the main countries identified as being most vulnerable to climate change in the world [5], although heavier impacts are expected in the long term. In any case, more attention should be paid to developing action plans at the global and national levels. ...
... Therefore, Vietnam is considered to be among the countries most affected by CC and CEEs. There is a growing awareness, from local to international levels, of the imminent need for appropriate adaptation to CC and CEEs [5]. Recently, following new attempts to mitigate and adapt to climate change around the world, Vietnam has entered into collaborations with various organizations and other countries, and many policies and projects have been taking into account the ability to prevent and mitigate the impact of natural disasters and climate change [12][13][14]. ...
The key farming communities in Vietnam are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate extreme events (CEEs), but the extent of their adaptation strategies is not well understood. This study aims to analyze the impacts of CEEs, current barriers, and adaptation strategies based on three categories of livelihood strategies. The classification method is first used to divide the livelihood strategy into these three categories, and a multinomial logistic model (MLS) is then applied to determine the set of parameters that affect adaptation options. CEEs result in significant damage in terms of both financial and health dimensions. Various barriers remain, such as the low capacity of relevant staff, lack of local budgets, and outdated methods being used to estimate and mitigate the impacts of CEEs. Notably, there were over 44%, and 28% conducted reactive and proactive adaptations, respectively, while a high percentage of households did not implement at least one adaptation method, around 27%. The MLS model is able to explain about 51.2% of the driving factors that influence adaptation strategies. In addition, the behavior of households in choosing adaptation methods shows the difference between perceptions of CEEs’ impacts and livelihood strategy profiles. There is a need for a package of adaptive solutions to address the impacts of CEEs that cover the many different household perspectives and involve stakeholders at multiple levels.
... The consultations were of various sizes and locations and took place over two years. Several recent examples of VAAs have highlighted more participatory processes that seek to integrate top-down and bottom-up approaches [62,63]. ...
... The USAID Mekong ARCC framework [2] pursued this goal by integrating a "community-based vulnerability assessment" with a "science-based vulnerability assessment," to build a community-driven adaptation plan, which was subjected to expert review. A recent VAA in Thailand illustrated such an approach, as researchers compared community views that precipitation was becoming more variable with projections of increased precipitation overall [62]. Another effort in the Mekong Basin found that participatory approaches helped to bridge divides over adaptation priorities between investments in infrastructure versus changes in land-use policies [63]. ...
Governments and institutions across the globe are conducting vulnerability assessments and developing adaptation plans to confront rapidly changing climatic conditions. Interrelated priorities, including the conservation of biodiversity, ecological restoration, sustainable development, and social justice often underlie these efforts. We collaborated with colleagues in an effort to help guide vulnerability assessment and adaptation (VAA) generally in Southeast Asia and specifically in the watershed of the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park (SIEP) in Phetchaburi Province, Thailand. Reflecting upon our experiences and a review of recent VAA literature, we examine a series of seven questions that help to frame the socio-ecological context for VAAs. We then propose a three-dimensional framework for understanding common orientations of VAAs and how they appear to be shifting and broadening over time, particularly in the USA. For example, key leaders in the SIEP project emphasized social development and community-based approaches over more ecology-centric approaches; this orientation was consistent with other examples from SE Asia. In contrast, many efforts for US national forests have evaluated vulnerability based on projected shifts in vegetation and have promoted adaptation options based upon ecological restoration. Illustrating a third, highly integrated approach, many VAAs prepared by indigenous tribes in the USA have emphasized restoring historical ecological conditions within a broader context of promoting cultural traditions, social justice, and adaptive capacity. We conclude with lessons learned and suggestions for advancing integrated approaches.
... Projected future climate risks have also informed climate vulnerability assessments at regional and local levels, with results that enable governments to better plan anticipatory adaptation actions at these scales (Barnett, 2011;Chen et al., 2015;Gustafson et al., 2017;Soora et al., 2013). In recent years, climate projections in many developing countries have been downscaled (Gustafson et al., 2017). ...
... Projected future climate risks have also informed climate vulnerability assessments at regional and local levels, with results that enable governments to better plan anticipatory adaptation actions at these scales (Barnett, 2011;Chen et al., 2015;Gustafson et al., 2017;Soora et al., 2013). In recent years, climate projections in many developing countries have been downscaled (Gustafson et al., 2017). These advances have given governments in these countries an expanded capacity to identify local climate change hotspots, and to combine the science-based data with a community-based perspective on vulnerablity to better support community-level adaptation processes (Gustafson et al., 2017). ...
... In recent years, climate projections in many developing countries have been downscaled (Gustafson et al., 2017). These advances have given governments in these countries an expanded capacity to identify local climate change hotspots, and to combine the science-based data with a community-based perspective on vulnerablity to better support community-level adaptation processes (Gustafson et al., 2017). ...
There is much scholarly and policy interest in the role that international finance could play in closing the financing gap for community adaptation initiatives. Despite the interest, the overall amount of international adaptation finance that has reached local recipients remains low. What makes internationally-financed climate change adaptation projects focus on investment at the community level is particularly poorly understood. This study systematically assesses conditions that influence the focus on vulnerable local communities in internationally-financed adaptation projects. Using the Adaptation Fund (AF) under the Kyoto Protocol as the case study, we apply fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to analyze 30 AF projects to identify specific configurations of conditions that lead to a stronger or weaker community focus in project design. We find that the absence of high exposure to projected future climate risks is a necessary condition for a weaker community focus in AF projects. Three configurations of sufficient conditions are identified that lead to a stronger community focus. They involve the contextual factors of projected future climate risks, civil society governance, and access modality to AF financing. In particular, AF projects with a stronger community focus are stimulated by the sole presence of higher exposure to projected future climate risks in a group of countries, and by the complementary roles of civil society governance and the access modality to the AF in others. These findings contribute new insights on how to enhance local inclusiveness of global climate finance.
... The papers in this issue focus on four interrelated themes: (1) impacts of climate change and human interferences on water, nutrient, and sediment flows (Shrestha et al. 2018); (2) climate change adaptation in urban centers (Radhakrishnan et al. 2018;Pathirana, Radhakrishnan, Ashley, Nguyen, and Zevenbergen 2018;Pathirana, Radhakrishnan, Nguyen, and Zevenbergen 2018); (3) climate change adaptation in rural areas (Gong et al. 2018;Gustafson et al. 2018); and (4) transboundary river management . ...
... However, rural communities in the Mekong River Basin often lack financial and institutional resources for formal adaptation planning. In this issue, we present papers that examine local climate change adaptations in the Chinese part of the Mekong River Basin (Gong et al. 2018) and in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Gustafson et al. 2018). ...
This paper is the introduction to the special issue on Climate change adapatation in the Mekong river basin. The papers in this issue focus on four interrelated themes: (1) impacts of climate change and human interferences on water, nutrient, and sediment flows (Shrestha et al. 2018); (2) climate change adaptation in urban centers (Radhakrishnan et al. 2018; Pathirana, Radhakrishnan, Ashley, Nguyen, and Zevenbergen 2018;Pathirana, Radhakrishnan, Nguyen, and Zevenbergen 2018); (3) climate change adaptation in rural areas (Gong et al. 2018; Gustafson et al. 2018); and (4) transboundary river management (Ngo et al. 2018). In this introduction to the special is we discuss the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mekong River Basin. Next, we continue to further discuss the relation between climate change impacts and other developments in the basin and the interrelations. Finally, we present the lessons learned from the various contributions to this special issue and provide some overall conclusions.
... land-use practices, migration, government regulations (or lack thereof), etc.) could be applied to the process to further enhance discussions around future scenarios. As a follow-up to this paper, a cross-site comparison of the methods presented herein has been conducted to include a total of four sites representing distinct ecological and socio-economic locations across the LMB (Gustafson et al., 2016). As a large part of the present article was devoted to presenting a well-documented account of the methodology so that others could use as a template to follow, the subsequent paper has enabled more extensive analysis of results and further testing of the preliminary observations from Huai Kang Pla. ...
The USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change project has piloted an integrative method for developing climate change adaptation plans within Lower Mekong Basin communities. Through an iterative process, traditionally distinct top-down and bottom-up approaches to decision-making are merged to improve resilience and sustainability of adaptation plans. The approach helps to broaden the understanding of both scientists and community members on the implications of climate change at the local level. Methods are highlighted within one pilot community, Huai Kang Pla, Thailand, with the primary goal of exemplifying the process, and, secondarily, to evaluate its validity in the context particular to this site. The results indicate that community members initially were most concerned with shorter term, atypical events such as irregular rainfall pattern during the growing season and/or periods of extreme temperature that intensify the annual drought. They were less troubled by other parameters that scientists had identified as additionally important, such as the more progressive, longer term shifts in average temperature and rainfall totals. Scientists defined key climate-related terms such as drought and irregular rainfall differently from community members; the distinctions around these differences were important to identify early in the process so that integration of information from the two groups could be more effective.
