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Earthquake loss estimations before future events and following strong earthquakes
in emergency mode and their corresponding visualization are extremely important for proper
decision on preventive measures and effective response in order to save lives and properties. The paper addresses the methodological issues of seismic risk and vulnerability ass...
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Citations
... Estimates of integrated risk parameters as found for population centres were averaged for administrative areas. We have made three maps of individual integrated risk due to natural hazards for the population of the Russian Federation (Frolova et al., 2014: R e1 is the probability of fatalities caused by the processes, R e2 is the probability of fatalities or injuries of various degrees, and R e3 is the probability of fatalities or injuries of various degrees or material losses. ...
Impact database development and application for risk analysis and management promote the usage of self-learning computer systems with elements of artificial intelligence. Such system learning could be successful when the databases store the complete information about each
event, parameters of the simulation models, the range of its application, and residual errors. Each new description included in the database could
increase the reliability of the results obtained with application of
simulation models. The calibration of mathematical models is the first step
to self-learning of automated systems. The article describes the events'
database structure and examples of calibrated computer models as applied to the impact of expected emergencies and risk indicator assessment. Examples of database statistics usage in order to rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the frequency of emergencies of different character as well as risk indicators are given.
For all earthquake prone countries, including the Russian Federation, seismic risk assessment is periodically updated. The need for updating is increasing due to changes in assessments of hazard level and vulnerability properties of the elements at risk. For the earthquake prone regions of the Russian Federation classified as the priority development zones, risk indicators updating should increase the effectiveness of preventive measures implementation aimed at risk reduction. Calculations show that the development of risk maps, as well as the subsequent planning and implementation of preventive measures tied to the place marked on the map as the most dangerous, can reduce possible social and economic losses by 20-30%. The article describes the issues of updating seismic risk indicators for the territory of the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Buryatia. For the considered areas, which are included in the advanced development program, the actual values of seismic hazard and building vulnerability were used. The procedure for assessing and mapping risk indicators with the geographic information system “Extremum” application is given. Examples of thematic maps are presented, illustrating rather high estimates of individual risk for 6% of the territory of the Irkutsk region and 39% of the territory of the Republic of Buryatia. The results of the study indicate the need and importance of ensuring the seismic safety of the population in the framework of planning measures for the advanced development of territories.
Timely and adequate action just after a strong earthquake can result in significant benefits in saving lives, as well as other benefits. For these cases, information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough and rapid information may be provided by, first of all, “global systems” (i.e., systems that are operated wherever the earthquake has occurred on the globe), in emergency mode. This paper gives a brief history of existing “global systems” and analyzes the factors which influence the reliability of earthquake impact simulation in near real time.
