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Recently years, most of China's rapidly developed regions are becoming China's large industrial cities and drawing the attention of the world. Consequently, the impacts of rapid urbanization to urban ecosystem will be greatly increased with the increasing economic development. If relationship between economic development and ecological sustainabili...
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This study developed a novel hybrid agent-based and system dynamics (AB-SD) model for an ecological economic system. The complex nature of an ecological economic system prevents us from seeing the system and its behavior as it is, which calls for a model. A model simplifies reality and reveals certain aspects of it. The modeling approach chosen, ho...
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Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of teen deaths in spite of preventive efforts. Prevention strategies could be advanced through new analytic approaches that allow us to better conceptualize the complex processes underlying teen crash risk. This may help policymakers design appropriate interventions and evaluate their impa...
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... This study uses a system dynamics approach to examine the relationship between the variables that constitute the carrying capacity model and its projections in the present and future. The system dynamics method has been widely used for various types of research for environmental management (Hassanzadeh et al. 2012), land and water resource planning (Ford 1996;Zarghami and Akbariyeh 2012), ecological modeling (Li et al. 2012), sustainability ecology and economy in urban areas (Zhan et al. 2012), island-based tourism development strategies by considering socio-economic impacts (Aliani et al. 2018), behavioral analysis of tourism destinations related to the number of visitors (Hell and Petrić 2021), analysis about the contribution of ecotourism to conservation and the presence of animals (Lola et al. 2017) and land use change (Firmansyah et al. 2019). ...
Komodo (Varanus komodoensis) with its wildlife is the only one in the world that lives in the Komodo National Park (KNP), East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The conservation efforts are carried out by considering the carrying capacity to remain in line with the principles of sustainable tourism management. This study aims to analyze the carrying capacity of the visits carrying capacity on Komodo Island and Padar Island. The method used in this research is system dynamics analysis. The number of Komodo dragons in 2045 is estimated to increase to 4,000-4,500 Komodo dragons in the KNP or around 2,500 Komodo dragons in Komodo Island and Padar Island because the number of prey is still quite available in their habitat. However, without the implementation of low-carbon development, there will be pressure on its population, which can drop to 800-900 Komodo dragons on both Komodo and Padar Islands. Meanwhile, the temperature increase occurs until 2045 which reaches 0.8 °C. In terms of the ideal number of visits to Komodo Island based on the carrying capacity calculation of 219,000 visits/year on Padar Island, the ideal number of visits is 39,420 visits/year, and it can still increase up to 2-2.5 times.
... In order to realize the relationship between the economic development and ecological sustainability of Tianjin city, Zhan et al. used system dynamics to find a balance between economic development and ecological protection. This model was built based on three subsystems of the society system, the economic system and the environmental system [9]. The paper of Ruutu et al. presented a simulation model that demonstrated vehicle choice among different types of private cars and public transportation. ...
The dynamic and complex interactions between the urban freight-transportation system and population, economy, traffic flow, fuel consumption, and environmental pollution, make policymaking in this system one of the fundamental challenges of urban management. In this regard, a systemic approach in urban freight-transportation system modelling should be considered to solve the problems of the system. One of the main problems of this system is the mismatch between the freight-transportation capacity and the total freight-transportation demand. Considering the lack of sufficient studies in the field of macro and quantitative modeling of this system, the main goal of this article is to model the urban freight-transportation system in order to identify the factors affecting the urban freight-transportation demand and capacity. The main focus of the research is to develop quantitative scenarios which balance the freight-transportation capacity and freight-transportation demand. The urban freight-transportation system is modelled by the System Dynamics (SD) approach and their basic behaviors; as well as this the results of some policy-making scenarios are simulated. The model is validated by the real data of Shiraz. Five quantitative scenarios are designed with two approaches of managing the freight-transportation demand and freight-transportation-capacity sectors. The scenarios are based on four control variables, including the distribution coefficient, trip numbers, vehicle capacity, and vehicle numbers. The simulation results show that the total gap between freight-transportation capacity and freight-transportation demand will decrease by optimizing each of the control variables. However, the combined scenario is the most applicable policy in order to maintain the balance between freight-transportation capacity and demand. Generally, the proposed model can be used to design different quantitative scenarios in order to optimize the freight-transportation system’s performance. This study can also help policymakers to manage the urban freight-transportation system more efficiently.
... The high level of consumption in society results in the formation of negative externalities in the form of waste generation, unmanaged waste generation has the potential to harm the environment from both domestic and non-domestic waste, and increasing the added value of waste as a resource can be a part of a development strategy to increase the added value of waste (Zhan et al., 2012). Waste resources may be managed by avoiding the negative effects of waste destruction, boosting recycling capacity, processing waste kinds correctly, and enhancing resources by decreasing both purposeful and involuntary mishaps (Firmansyah et al., 2016). ...
Air pollution may contribute to climate change in Indonesia, and it has the potential to undermine national economy over the long term due to the high expenses of dealing with environmental damage. The study's goal was to investigate and assess the impact of the industrial sector's GDRB, the mining sector's GDRB, the agricultural sector's GRDB, the level of education, the level of poverty, the quantity of trash generated, and the rate of deforestation on air quality in Indonesia. Secondary data types include time series and cross section (panel data) covering 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2016 to 2019. Descriptive statistical research approach using a step-by-step panel data regression model (fixed or random effect) with Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange multiplier method. Then, partly and concurrently, the classical assumption test and the statistical test (t-test and F-test). This research found that GRDB growth in the industrial sector has a positive significantly effect on air quality, GRDB growth in the mining sector has a negative significantly effect on air quality, GRDB growth in the agricultural sector has a negative significantly effect on air quality, and education level has a positive effect. Poverty level has no effect on air quality, waste generation has no effect positive on air quality, and deforestation rate has a negative significantly effect on air quality in Indonesia.
... Thus, the slope map was made in 10 groupings ( Figure 5). In terms of urban development, the very suitable slope is less than 15% (lower than 10 degrees) [70,71], although up to 25% was also assessed as suitable [72,73]. Since urban morphology is more susceptible to natural hazards such as floods, the highest score is given to slopes with lower degrees. ...
... hough up to 25% was also assessed as suitable [72,73]. Since urban morphology is more susceptible to natural hazards such as floods, the highest score is given to slopes with lower degrees. ...
Ecological livability assessment is one of the effective strategies seeking an optimum balance between the processes of urban development and ecological ones to ensure sustainable and livable environments ultimately. Since this type of evaluation is functional and practical for managers and planners, ecological livability is studied from different aspects (ecological, physical-social, economic). With an emphasis on ecological-infrastructural potentials, the present paper studies the region’s capabilities in four activities: agriculture, pasture, forestry, residential, and tourism in northern Iran. Firstly, in the methodology and based on GIS, ecological-infrastructural indicators were investigated in the study area (Tonekabon City). Secondly, the four activities evaluated the ecological-infrastructural indicators according to the Delphi and ANP methods. Then they were combined with the Overlay function to prioritize the ecological-infrastructural potential of Tonekabon City for the activities. Findings from the study show that topographic and land capability indicators impact various activities concerning Tonekabon City’s characteristics. The results of the research for the four activities in Tonekabon indicate that 35% of lands have a high potential for agriculture and pasture, more than 70% for forestry, 35% for tourism activities, and more than 73% for settlement ones in the category 1 and 2 (suitable, moderately suitable). In addition, the most ecological infrastructure potential is for agricultural-pasture, residential, and tourism activities in the northern of Tonekabon and forestry ones for the southern part. However, the high potential and power are in other parts of Tonekabon, especially the central sections, to establish several activities that it is possible to improve livability in the light of sustainable development through the investment in activities.
... Accordingly, environmental assessments are frequently based on SD procedures for different system sizes (BenDor et al., 2011;Graeme and Davies, 2008;Xi and Poh, 2013), even though most of them are not spatially explicit. SD techniques have also been used to identify land use change and envisage future land needs for certain uses (Sanders and Sanders, 2012;Zhan et al., 2012). Nonetheless, only a few temporal models have evolved from static into spatially explicit dynamics models when coupled with land use allocation/optimization procedures (D. Liu et al., 2017;Ruben et al., 2020;Verburg et al., 2002;Yang et al., 2019). ...
In this paper, a space-time model is developed to support spatial planning. The temporal nature of the model allows the variables that condition land use to evolve periodically. In each time-step, land use allocation is optimized considering sustainability criteria. The model combines system dynamics techniques to simulate the evolution and interactions of economic and biophysical drivers using a multi-objective algorithm for spatial optimization that introduces bidirectional spatio-temporal feedback. It provides sets of maps for decision makers in which income and food self-sufficiency are maximized and the environmental impact of different what-if scenarios is minimized. The model has been applied in Los Llanos de San Juan (Mexico) for three scenarios: baseline, high and sustainable growth. The maps obtained by 2050 reduced water demand pressure by 1.4% and 4.7%, while crop production (in calories) was balanced with population food needs in 2035 and 2045 in the high and sustainable growth scenarios, respectively.
... SD is made up of two generic structures; the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) (qualitative modeling) and the stock and flow diagrams (quantitative modeling) [20]. These models have successfully been applied to various disciplines including natural resource management [61,62], energy consumption [59,63,64], agricultural development [55,65], food security [66,67] water resource management [17,23,[68][69][70], and the water, energy, and food nexus (WEF) [24,53,71]. SD models have been applied to several fields and disciplines beyond those listed in this study but for the context of this study, only the areas listed will be considered. ...
A bibliometric and network analysis was performed to explore global research publication trends and to investigate relevant policy recommendations in the field of sustainability of natural resources, system dynamics, and systems thinking, to solve water resources issues and enhance water resource management. Overall, 1674 academic research articles data were generated from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, from 1981 to 2019. The findings of this study revealed that system dynamics and systems thinking research has significantly increased over the last decade (from 40 to 250 articles). Countries such as the USA (20%), China (18%), the United Kingdom (5%), Canada, Iran, Australia, and India (4% each) have the most publications and strongest collaborative networks. Sterman (2000) and Forrester (1961) had the most co-cited research while Zhang X had the highest citations, respectively. Results also showed that system theory which includes systems thinking and system dynamics were the most used keywords. The Journal of Cleaner Production was found to have published the highest number of systems thinking and system dynamics related studies, perhaps due to scope relevance. Despite the exponential rise in natural resource sustainability research globally, the result of this study shows that developing countries especially in Africa have low numbers of research publications in the field. Thus, the result of this study serves as a signal for policymakers to increase attention on research publications that could enhance natural resource sustainability, particularly in less developed countries in Africa where the application of systems thinking to natural resource management is limited.
... First, this study considers the inclusion of energy reduction constraints on the 3E system proposed and gets a new four-dimensional system, which is more in line with the actual situation and the current development needs. Second, this study deviates from the leading research on energy-economy-environment systems research that focuses primarily on environmental impact analysis [40], global environmental development [41], eco-industrial systems planning [42,43], dynamic assessment of urban economy-resource-environment systems [44], and economic and environmentally sustainable development [45]. Here, through the stability analysis of dynamic 3E system by system complexity theory, the gap in methodology commonly used in 3E system research is bridged. ...
A novel four-dimensional energy, economic, and environmental (3E) under energy reduction constraints chaotic system is proposed. The acquisition of environmental quality data is the key to this paper. During the course of the study, we used Bayesian estimation algorithm to calibrate the environmental quality. Based on the official data, the Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation neural network method was optimized by genetic algorithm to effectively identify the parameters in the 3E system. The research results show that although increasing energy reduction inputs can improve environmental quality, the effect on energy intensity and overall stability of the system is not obvious. When polluting input in the ecological environment system affects its maximum capacity, the environmental system collapses (i.e., the ecological system can no longer purify the environment through the self-circulation process and will eventually die out). Therefore, it is necessary to correctly grasp the ecological environment protection and the relationship between economic developments and explore synergies to promote ecological priorities and green development new ideas.
... Especially, most of the research on IS has focused primarily on production mechanisms and evolution of IS networks (Chertow, 2000;Ehrenfeld & Gertler, 2010;Shi, Chertow, & Song, 2010), and the effects of IS networks on the environment (Fei, Feng, & Zhao, 2014;Hu, Wen, & Jason, 2017;Kasai, 1999;Li & Li, 2014;Liu et al., 2011;Mattila, Lehtoranta, Sokka, Melanen, & Nissinen, 2012;Sokka, Lehtoranta, Nissinen, & Melanen, 2011;Yong, Zhang, Ulgiati, & Sarkis, 2010;Zhang, Zheng, & Fath, 2015). Research methods include social network analysis (SNA), life cycle assessment (LCA), emergy analysis, complex networks theory, system dynamics and multi-objective planning (Zhan, Zhang, Ma, & Chen, 2012;Zheng, Zhang, & Yang, 2012;Zong & Xiao, 2015). Researchers have discussed industrial systems from different aspects such as park planning, environmental benefits, resource utilization and so on. ...
Based on the social network analysis (SNA) and the cascading failure model, this paper develops a model of elasticity analysis of the Industrial Symbiosis (IS) network and evaluates the Nanjing Chemical Industry Parks (NCIP) by the metrics of network efficiency and survival rate of the nodes. This paper finds that the NCIP is mainly composed of three major industrial chains, involving the circulation flow of the material, by-products, and energy, and show heterogeneous. Under an intentional attack on the consumer nodes, most of the node's failure cause a chain reaction and bring about changes in network efficiency, and the resilience is not identical accordingly. The network efficiency increases with the augment of the elasticity level, it will not change when reached a certain peak, and the survival rate of the node also increases with the increase of the elasticity level. Therefore, the choice of the optimal elasticity level is helpful to the construction and normal operation of the symbiosis network. At the same time, in order to improve the resilience of the symbiotic network, enterprises should communicate periodically. Because of the ability to find and eliminate the adverse factors, periodic checks are critical for symbiosis between nodes. In order to prevent a network collapse, the NCIP management committee should evaluate the resilience of the IS network regularly, and the government should support the construction of the IS network and give tax subsidies or deductions.
... Vensim enables the causal tracing of structure and behavior and provides a user-friendly interactive interface with wide-ranging mathematical functions. Further, it has Monte Carlo sensitivity, optimization, and subscripting capabilities [27]. ...
Technical-economic analyzation is critical to increasing a mine’s economic benefits and saving mineral resources for its sustainable development. However, since the mining system has many technical-economic indicators that are connected and that respond to each other, it is not easy to determine mining production and operation performance when an indicator changes or when multiple indicators change. Thus, the complicated system of operational metal mining cannot be easily solved in a general way. In this paper, system dynamics (SD), an alternative approach that can qualitatively and quantitatively assess mining production and operation from a system analysis perspective, is employed. Taking the Sanshandao gold mine in China as the industrial research context, we built an SD model based on an integrated stock and flow diagram, which is derived from the identification of technical-economic parameters and the system conceptualization of causal loop diagrams, including four subsystems of geology, mining production, mineral processing, and financial. After establishing the equations and testing the model based on historical data, the SD model simulated with the PLE 6.3 software can be used as a decision support tool to calculate the simulation results in many scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is also introduced to consider uncertainties in the assessment. In the future, development of the prototype SD model will continue, and it will be verified by many more case studies to be a useful alternative tool for decision-making to improve the actual processes and to support the sustainable development of metal mine production and operation.
... According to [5], State policy is a series of decisions that are set and implemented by the State that have certain objectives in the public interest "and for good business actors, State policies must have entrepreneurial marketing capabilities with five main indicators, namely, frequency of product diversification, level product diversity, ability to establish relationships with medium-sized businesses, the ability to establish relationships with large businesses, and the level of activity seeking business information. Policy as a series of actions / activities proposed by a person, group or State in a particular environment where there are obstacles (difficulties) and opportunities for implementing the proposed policy in order to achieve the objectives in which the public policy making process is demanded by the State not only to give birth to a good policy but also the policy that goes through the process of involving citizens based on citizens preferences, namely the policy making process that is based on people's choices [12]. ...
This study aims to obtain a model that represents the Effect of Maritime Culture and State Policy on Maritime National Security and measures how much it affects. The relationship model is needed as a guideline in formulating marine policies based on the strength of Maritime Culture that has taken root in the history of the Indonesian nation. The method used in this study is to use the SEM (Structural Equation Model) Modeling approach which is compiled based on quantitative descriptive analysis with the aim of describing relationships between variables accompanied by significant indicators. Modeling analysis has a significant relationship between Maritime Culture (X1), State Policy (Y1) and National Maritime Security (Y4). The variable indicators used are community character (X1.1) and economic activity (X1.2), cultural activities and happiness traditions (X1.3), defense and security policies (Y1.1), economic policy (Y1.2) , Technology and education policy (Y1.3) and Socio-cultural Policy (Y1.4). National Resilience with indicators: ideological aspects (Y4.1), politics (Y4.2), economics (Y4.3), socio-cultural (Y4.4) and defense security (Y4.5). The study produced a Model with Goodnes of Fit value in the form of a suitability of the model that represented a significant relationship between Maritime Culture and State Policy towards National Resilience. The relationship formulations found were: Maritime Resilience = 0.207 * Maritime Culture, State Policy = 0.542 * Maritime Culture, Maritime National Defense = 0.813 * State Policy and Maritime National Resilience = 0.813 * State Policy + 0.207 * Maritime Culture.
