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Life expectancy at birth for males and females in England and Wales, 1841–2010. Source: data from the Human Mortality database.
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It is acknowledged that the world is ageing at both the individual and population level. Life expectancies at birth have increased for males and females in the more developed economies across the 20th century. The 21st century is expected to see this development continue with life expectancies moving towards 100 years. This paper looks at the evide...
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Citations
... With the survival curve for both males and females becoming rectangularised (Fries 1980), the data reveal both for the general populations and the super survivors that increases in life expectancies have been possible by increasing survival and extending lives in later life, in contradiction of the conviction that mortality at older ages is intractable (Wilmoth 1997;Vaupel 1998;Leeson 2014Leeson & 2014a. ...
... The life expectancies and estimated expected total length of life for super survivors from the 2050 life table are shown in Table 6. There is already a substantial body of evidence which suggests that lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006;Thatcher 1999Thatcher , 2001Olshanky et al. 2001;Robine, Saito & Jagger 2003;Wilmoth & Robine 2003;Christensen et al. 2009;Vaupel 2010;Leeson 2014) persons will be aged 110 years or over; almost 8000 will be aged 115 years or over; and almost 400 will be aged 120 years or over. ...
Against a backdrop of population ageing and an increasing number of centenarians in England & Wales after the 2nd World War, this paper analyses the expected length of life of super survivors at different ages in 1956, 2016 and 2050. In particular, the paper highlights the development in the gender divide in respect of expected total length of life for both the super survivors and the general population, and the analyses reveal that this aspect of gender inequality has declined over the 60 year period from 1956 to 2016, and is expected to continue to decline to the middle of the 21st century, falling to less than 1 year for the super survivors.Key words Population ageing, expected total length of life, life expectancy, super survivors. ResumoTendo como pano de fundo o envelhecimento da população e um número crescente de centenários na Inglaterra e no País de Gales após a 2ª Guerra Mundial, este artigo analisa a expectativa de vida dos super-sobreviventes em diferentes idades em 1956, 2016 e 2050. Em particular, o artigo destaca o desenvolvimento na divisão de gênero em relação à expectativa de vida total tanto para os super- sobreviventes quanto para a população em geral, e as análises revelam que esse aspecto da desigualdade de gênero diminuiu ao longo do período de 60 anos de 1956 a 2016, e espera-se que continue a declinar até meados do século XXI, caindo para menos de 1 ano para os super- sobreviventes.Palavras-chave: Envelhecimento da população, expectativa de vida total, expectativa de vida, super-sobreviventes.
... People are living longer and dying older (Leeson 2014). In New Zealand, the demand for palliative care in residential aged care (RAC) facilities, also referred to as long-term care or nursing home facilities, is forecast to increase (Connolly et al. 2014) by .80% ...
This exploratory study examined general practitioners' (GPs) perspectives on delivering end-of-life care in the New Zealand residential aged care context. A general inductive approach to the data collected from semi-structured interviews with 17 GPs from 15 different New Zealand general practices was taken. Findings examine: (1) GPs' life experience; (2) the GP relationship with the facilities and provision of end-of-life care; (3) the GP interaction with families of dying residents; and (4) GP relationship with hospice. The nature of the GP relationship with the facility influenced GP involvement in end-of-life care in aged care facilities, with GPs not always able to direct a facility's end-of-life care decisions for specific residents. GP participation in end-of-life care was constrained by GP time availability and the costs to the facilities for that time. GPs reported seldom using hospice services for residents, but did use the reputation (cachet) associated with hospice practices to provide an authoritative buffer for their end-of-life clinical decisions when talking with families and residents. GP training in end-of-life care, especially for those with dementia, was reported as ad hoc and done through informal mentoring between GPs.
... Nearly one in five people in the UK today are aged 65 or over (ONS 2017). A baby born today has an average life expectancy of 91 (male) or 93 (female), and a one in three chance of living to 100 (ONS 2016; see also Leeson 2014). Someone who is 50 today has an average life expectancy of 86 (male) or 89 (female). ...
This chapter reflects upon change and the prospect of change in looking to the future of mobility and why transport matters. As we bear witness to the digital age colliding and merging with the motor age, it seems we are in a transitional period towards a new regime of mobility – or perhaps more helpfully, a new regime of how society interacts and how people access what they need or desire. Against the backdrop of examining technological innovation and social and behaviour change, the chapter highlights that we are confronted by two agendas: (i) a need for policymaking and investment to chart a course into a deeply uncertain future; and (ii) a need to consider how well equipped our orthodox approaches in transport analysis are in the face of what appears to be an ever more complex and changing world. With regards to the latter, ‘decide and provide’ is advocated as an alternative to ‘predict and provide’.
... The turn of the 20 th century saw life expectancy at age 65 begin to increase steadily -particularly for females, and with this came a divergence of male and female life expectancies, mirroring the development to some extent for life expectancies at birth. Around the world, new generations can expect to live longer than previous generations, and the rate of increase is surprisingly strong and constant (Leeson , 2014a(Leeson , 2016a. Life expectancies at birth for both sexes combined have increased at the global level from around 47 years in the mid-20 th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to around 77 years by the mid-21 st century. ...
... Life expectancies also increased during the twentieth century and are expected to continue to do so in the twenty-first century (UN 2017). For the foreseeable future, each new generation can expect to live longer than previous generations, and the rate of increase is expected to be surprisingly strong and constant (Leeson 2014). Life expectancies at birth for both sexes combined have increased at the global level from around 47 years in the mid-twentieth century to around 71 years today, and are expected to rise to around 77 years by the mid-twenty-first century and to around 83 years by the end of the twenty-first century. ...
The world is ageing, both at an individual and a population level, and population ageing is truly a global phenomenon. The emergence of large numbers of centenarians has accompanied this development and the twenty-first century promises to be the century of centenarians. The number of centenarians in Europe increased from around 57,000 in 2006 to almost 90,000 in 2011. By 2100 the number is expected to reach around 1.4 million in England and Wales alone. This century of centenarians will be challenging in both the developed and the emerging economies. The trend has fundamental consequences for the way in which individuals view and live these ever-extending lives, but also for the way in which societal infrastructures (education, workplaces, housing, transport, and health and social care) will need to be adapted to the needs of extreme-aged populations. More importantly, perhaps, our perception of old age needs a dramatic reappraisal.
... It is striking to note that in the early 1950s the majority of the MENA countries considered here had life expectancies at birth below 50 years -something not experienced in England and Wales, for example, since the beginning of the 20 th century (Leeson 2014). By 2015-20, life expectancy at birth for both sexes in all of the MENA countries considered here have increased dramatically, with only Yemen (65.2 years) having a life expectancy at birth less than 70 years. ...
... At the same time, life expectancies increased equally dramatically during the first half of the twentieth century and then more modestly in the latter half of that century when increases materialised as a result of improvements in survival at older ages (Fries 1980;Leeson 1981Leeson , 1982Leeson , 2014aVaupel 1998). The evidence is that our lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006;Thatcher 1999Thatcher , 2001Olshansky et al. 2001;Robine et al. 2003;Wilmoth and Robine 2003;Christensen et al. 2009;Vaupel 2010;Leeson 2011Leeson , 2014aLeeson , 2016a. ...
... At the same time, life expectancies increased equally dramatically during the first half of the twentieth century and then more modestly in the latter half of that century when increases materialised as a result of improvements in survival at older ages (Fries 1980;Leeson 1981Leeson , 1982Leeson , 2014aVaupel 1998). The evidence is that our lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006;Thatcher 1999Thatcher , 2001Olshansky et al. 2001;Robine et al. 2003;Wilmoth and Robine 2003;Christensen et al. 2009;Vaupel 2010;Leeson 2011Leeson , 2014aLeeson , 2016a. ...
... However, to date, the effect of aging on the association between sleep duration and impaired glucose metabolism is less clear, regardless of accumulated evidence [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] . Based on the findings mentioned above and the worldwide extension of the life span [22,23] , we investigated whether the association between self-reported sleep duration and dysglycemia varies among younger and older generations in the general Japanese population who undergo an annual medical checkup. ...
Aim:
To investigate whether the association between sleep duration and impaired glucose metabolism varies among younger and older populations.
Methods:
We reviewed data of self-reported habitual sleep duration per night, HbA1c levels, and clinically relevant factors in a cross-sectional checkup database of 75472 Japanese from the general population aged 20-79 years (51695 men and 23777 women). Associations of prediabetes (HbA1c ≥ 5.7% and/or diabetic pharmacotherapy) or diabetes (HbA1c ≥ 6.5% and/or diabetic pharmacotherapy) with short and long sleep durations compared with a reference sleep duration (7 h) were investigated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. We controlled for potential relevant confounders, including age, sex, and work duration per day according to younger and older subjects.
Results:
As age advanced, sleep duration became longer and this increase in the 40s and 50s was two times greater in men than in women. This finding was accompanied by a deterioration in HbA1c levels. In subjects aged younger than 40 years (n = 32929), HbA1c levels were inversely and linearly correlated with sleep duration in both sexes. However, in subjects aged 40 years or older (n = 42543), HbA1c levels showed a non-linear relationship against sleep duration with a nadir at 7 h. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that in younger subjects, short durations of sleep (≤ 5 h and 6 h) were positively associated with prediabetes (both P < 0.001), but a long duration of sleep (≥ 8 h) was inversely associated with prediabetes (P < 0.001). These associations remained significant after adjustment for relevant confounders, including age, sex, and work duration per day (ORs = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.05-1.37, P < 0.001; ORs = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.02-1.24, P < 0.05; and ORs = 0.84, 95%CI: 0.72-0.99, P < 0.05, respectively). In contrast, in older subjects, besides an association of prediabetes with a short duration of sleep (≤ 5 h) (ORs = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.03-1.21, P < 0.01), diabetes was significantly associated with a long duration of sleep (≥ 8 h) (ORs = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.02-1.25, P < 0.05).
Conclusion:
A short sleep duration may be associated with prediabetes throughout life. However, the association between a long sleep duration and glucose metabolism can change with aging.
... Population ageing has become an increasingly relevant global issue, occurring at the level of both the individual and society. Despite some persisting inequalities in life expectancy and the prevalence of longevity across continents, countries, and social classes, the phenomenon of longevity has spread more and more throughout the world [Leeson 2014;Mathers et al. 2015]. Surviving to a higher age has changed from a very rare event to an almost universal human experience [Mayhew and Smith 2015]. ...
... Surviving to a higher age has changed from a very rare event to an almost universal human experience [Mayhew and Smith 2015]. Life expectancy at birth, which has approximately tripled in the course of human history, continues to grow and there is no indication that it will stop in the near future [Leeson 2014;Mathers et al. 2015;Mayhew and Smith 2015;Wilmoth 2000]. Theories of the 'biologically' maximum length of life, such as Fries' [1980] compression of morbidity theory, seem to fail. ...
Various explanations for longevity and mortality differences have been repeatedly tested and discussed in the context of worldwide population ageing. This study contributes to this field of research by testing the potential of resilience as a capacity to adapt in the face of adversity through individual and social resources and is the first European study to investigate how resilience predicts survival in later life. Panel data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe are used to determine the predictors of survival among people over the age of 75 between waves 1, 2, 4, and 5. The results of a multilevel logistic regression show that resilience is a strong predictor of survival among the oldest old and that this is true even when controlling for the amount and severity of adversity. Resilience is found on its own to be a stronger predictor of survival in women, while the amount and severity of adversity is more important in men. Resilience is therefore found to be an important factor in longevity and survival in later life and the stronger effect of resilience in women can partly explain the 'gender paradox'. To sum up, resilience is observed to be protective against decease, especially through the use of social resources, which are stronger among women and which are not measured in most traditionally used resilience scales.
... The populations of the world continue to age as fertility remains low (as in Europe and parts of Asia) or continues to decline (as in other parts of Asia, Latin America and some parts of Africa) and as mortality continues to decline at all ages (Leeson 2009(Leeson , 2013(Leeson , 2014a(Leeson , 2014b. Population ageing-once regarded as an issue for the developed economies of Europe and North America-is becoming a truly global phenomenon as it now spreads across Latin America (Leeson 2013). ...
... Life expectancies increased dramatically during the first half of the 20th century, and then more modestly in the latter half of that century as a result of improvements in survival at older ages (Fries 1980;Leeson 1981Leeson , 1982Leeson , 2014aVaupel 1998). Furthermore, there is a body of evidence indicating that lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006;Thatcher 1999Thatcher , 2001Olshanky et al. 2001;Robine et al. 2003;Wilmoth and Robine 2003;Christensen et al. 2009;Vaupel 2010;Leeson 2011Leeson , 2014a. ...
... Life expectancies increased dramatically during the first half of the 20th century, and then more modestly in the latter half of that century as a result of improvements in survival at older ages (Fries 1980;Leeson 1981Leeson , 1982Leeson , 2014aVaupel 1998). Furthermore, there is a body of evidence indicating that lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006;Thatcher 1999Thatcher , 2001Olshanky et al. 2001;Robine et al. 2003;Wilmoth and Robine 2003;Christensen et al. 2009;Vaupel 2010;Leeson 2011Leeson , 2014a. There is strong historical evidence to support this future, as pointed out by Oeppen and Vaupel (2002), inasmuch as female life expectancy at birth in the longest-lived country at any time has increased year on year since 1840 at a rate of approximately 2.5 years per decade, and the same is true, but at a slower rate, for males (Westendorp 2004). ...
The world is ageing both at an individual and a population level, and population ageing is truly a global phenomenon. Life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century. The proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 % in the mid-20th century to 12 %, and by 2050 it is expected to reach 21 %. The emergence of large numbers of centenarians has accompanied this development. This paper outlines this emergence historically and the likely growth in the number of centenarians in the 21st century, in particular in England and Wales, analysing mortality trends since 1840 and the rise in the number of centenarians in the 20th and 21st centuries. The number of centenarians in England and Wales increased from around 160 in 1922 to almost 12,500 by 2012, but if mortality at all ages had remained constant from 1912 to 2012, then by 2012 the number of centenarians would only have been around 720. By 2100, the number of centenarians is expected to reach around 1.4 million, but if future mortality at all ages were to remain constant, then by 2100 the number of centenarians would be around 78,000. However, if predicted mortality for those aged 55 years and over was to decrease by an additional 5 % every 5 years until 2100, then the number of centenarians in England and Wales would reach around 1.8 million by the end of the century.
