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Life expectancy at birth changes between 2019 and 2020 �a : Comparison between our main results and results derived from INE. a Annual life expectancy at birth in 2020 � was estimated using data from the one year window up to 5 July 2020. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241952.g004
Source publication
Background
To provide an interpretable summary of the impact on mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic we estimate weekly and annual life expectancies at birth in Spain and its regions.
Methods
We used daily death count data from the Spanish Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo), and death counts from 2018, and population on July 1st, 2019 by regio...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... our analyses we have assumed the age pattern of deaths in 2018 applies to the first half of 2020 (2020 � ). In a sensitivity analysis we used age-specific mortality estimates recently released by the INE, corrected by the undercoverage of electronically reported mortality data (~7%) [29], and we obtained similar estimates on the life expectancy gaps between 2019 and 2020 � (Fig 4). Thus, these additional analyses confirm that both the undercoverage and our assumptions regarding the age pattern of deaths are unlikely to affect he estimated life expectancy differences between 2019 and 2020 � (data from the one year window up to 5 July 2020). ...
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Citations
... However, most of them have done so at national level [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] . A few other studies have attempted to quantify the impact of the pandemic at a finer geographical scale, but for one country at a time [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] . However, comparing these regional patterns is problematic because these studies take different approaches to compute the mortality levels that would have occurred without the pandemic. ...
Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant increase in deaths worldwide. This article presents a detailed analysis of the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across 569 regions in 25 European countries. We produce age and sex-specific excess mortality and present our results using Age-Standardised Years of Life Lost in 2020 and 2021, as well as the cumulative impact over the two pandemic years. Employing a forecasting approach based on CP-splines that considers regional diversity and provides confidence intervals, we find notable losses in 362 regions in 2020 (440 regions in 2021). Conversely, only seven regions experienced gains in 2020 (four regions in 2021). We also estimate that eight regions suffered losses exceeding 20 years of life per 1000 population in 2020, whereas this number increased to 75 regions in 2021. The contiguity of the regions investigated in our study also reveals the changing geographical patterns of the pandemic. While the highest excess mortality values were concentrated in the early COVID-19 outbreak areas during the initial pandemic year, a clear East-West gradient appeared in 2021, with regions of Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia experiencing the highest losses. This research underscores the importance of regional analyses for a nuanced comprehension of the pandemic’s impact.
... Regional differences in health outcomes are usual in Spain, and also during the pandemic period [46], but intraregional differences are not usually assessed. Our analysis incorporating information about health area, population density or the ageing index also suggests that the risk of mortality varied in the pandemic period compared to that prior to the virus. ...
The coronavirus disease pandemic has had an important impact worldwide. The population aged over 65 years and aged dependent persons are the population groups which have suffered in a highest level the consequences of the pandemic in terms of cases and death. In Spain, the situation is similar to other countries, but regional studies are needed because competencies on long-term care depend on regional public administration. Thus, the aim of this work is to analyse social and individual factors associated with the risk of mortality of legally recognised dependent people during the pandemic compared to a non-pandemic period. The data were extracted from the administrative database on individuals included in Castilla-La Mancha's long-term care system and it was merged with the information from the Spanish National Death Index administered by the Ministry of Health, Consumption and Social Welfare. The results show that the risk of mortality between March and June 2020 was positively associated with being male; being older than 65, with an especially high impact in the group aged over 90; having a higher level of dependency; living in a nursing home; and living in a place with more population density. Intraregional differences related to health areas also exists in both pandemic and non-pandemic periods. These findings are critical with a view to enhancing protocols for the care of the most vulnerable population groups.
... Trias-Llimós & Bilal [4] showed that the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted life expectancy in Madrid, the most affected region in Spain. In another article, Trias-Llimós et al. [16] estimated the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating both weekly and annual life expectancies in Spain and its 17 regions. Cevik et al. [17] analysed the role of age and comorbidities in COVID-19 death rate. ...
COVID-19 is a contagious disease that poses a serious risk to public health worldwide. To reduce its spread, people need to adopt preventive behaviours such as wearing masks, maintaining physical distance, and isolating themselves if they are infected. However, the effectiveness of these measures may depend on various factors that differ across countries. This paper investigates how some factors, namely outsiders’ effect, life expectancy, population density, smoker percentage, and temperature, influence the transmission and death rate of COVID-19 in ninety-five top-affected countries. We collect and analyse the data of COVID-19 cases and deaths using statistical tests. We also use fuzzy logic to model the chances of COVID-19 based on the results of the statistical tests. Unlike the conventional uniform weighting of the rule base in fuzzy logic, we propose a novel method to calculate the weights of the rule base according to the significance of the factors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and comparative analysis of the factors of COVID-19 transmission and death rates among different countries.
... To date, most of these studies estimate excess mortality for countries as a whole, with the undeniable risk of hiding intranational differences and hindering effective health policies within a pandemic context. Hence, in recent months, many papers have estimated regional excess mortality for specific countries [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. However, comparing these regional patterns is relatively problematic because these studies take different approaches to compute the mortality levels that would have occurred without the pandemic. ...
Objective
To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.
Methods
Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.
Results
We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.
Conclusions
Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.
... For some of these, excess mortality is the difference between regional mortality levels in 2020 or 2021 and pre-pandemic mortality. The countries thus analyzed have been Brazil [15], Italy [16,17], Mexico [18], Portugal [19], Spain [20], Sweden [21], Switzerland [22] and the United States [23]. More thoughtful accounting of the temporal change in mortality via forecasting techniques have been also proposed for estimating excess mortality at regional level. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic’s uneven impact on subnational regions highlights the importance of understanding its local-level mortality impact. Vital statistics are available for an increasing number of countries for 2020, 2021, and 2022, facilitating the computation of subnational excess mortality and a more comprehensive assessment of its burden. However, this calculation faces two important methodological challenges: it requires appropriate mortality projection models; and small populations imply considerable, though commonly neglected, uncertainty in the estimates. We address both issues using a method to forecast mortality at the subnational level, which incorporates uncertainty in the computation of mortality measures. We illustrate our approach by examining French départements (NUTS 3 regions, or 95 geographical units), and produce sex-specific estimates for 2020. This approach is highly flexible, allowing one to estimate excess mortality during COVID-19 in most demographic scenarios and for past pandemics.
... However, most of them have done so at national level [8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]. A few other studies have attempted to quantify the impact of the pandemic at a finer geographical scale, but for one country at a time [18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27]. However, comparing these regional patterns is problematic because these studies take different approaches to compute the mortality levels that would have occurred without the pandemic. ...
This article presents a detailed analysis of the global mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across 569 regions in 25 European countries. We produce sex-specific excess mortality and present our results using Age-Standardised Years of Life Lost (ASYLL) in 2020 and 2021, as well as the cumulative impact over the two pandemic years. Employing a robust forecasting approach that considers regional diversity and provides confidence intervals, we find notable losses in 362 regions in 2020 (440 regions in 2021). Conversely, only seven regions experienced gains in 2020 (four regions in 2021). Most importantly, we estimate that eight regions suffered losses exceeding 20 years of life per 1,000 population in 2020, whereas this number increased to 75 regions in 2021. The contiguity of the regions investigated in our study also reveals the changing geographical patterns of the pandemic. While the highest excess mortality values were concentrated in the early COVID-19 outbreak areas during the initial pandemic year, a clear East-West gradient appeared in 2021, with regions of Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia experiencing the highest losses. This research underscores the importance of regional analyses for a nuanced comprehension of the pandemic's impact.
... inquiring into the pandemic's impact on mortality and life expectancy (for example, Trias-Llimós et al., 2020), as well as on fertility (Aassve et al., 2020). However, partly because of the problems with the records we have referred to, little has been done in the area of migration and, when there are studies, internal migration has attracted more attention, especially in terms of the rural-urban dichotomy and migratory flows to less densely populated areas. ...
Restrictions on mobility as a measure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic meant, in the case of Spain, an abrupt ending to what could be called the second international migratory boom. At the same time, internal migrations underwent considerable change, with cities becoming less attractive as a destination for migrants, and increased flows into rural areas. In this context, our aim is twofold. First, it is to describe and analyse the decline in international migration according to origin and, second, to analyse internal migration among the population of immigrant origin. The results point to a temporary steep downturn in international flows, which does not affect all origins equally. In the case of internal migrations, there is a slight reduction in the intensity of movements with patterns similar to those of the autochthonous population. However, this drop in numbers is very significant among Asians and barely noticeable among immigrants from Latin America.
... Several previous studies have reported on the pandemic's effect on the reduction in life expectancy at birth in some high-income countries and upper-middle-income countries in the Americas and Europe, largely based on partial data in 2020 [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. For example, one study found that life expectancy at birth in 2020 had fallen in all but three of 37 high-income and upper-middle-income countries compared with 2019, with men experiencing a greater decline [12]. ...
... Although these [1,26], reflecting significant changes in mortality and morbidity until 2019. Globally, age-standardised rates of death dropped between 1990 and 2019 across all three broad categories of causes of death: communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional; noncommunicable diseases; and injuries [13,26]. We found that the global life expectancy at birth had turned from an increasing to a decreasing trend since 2019 and returned to its 2012 or 2013 level by 2021. ...
... Previous country-specific estimates of life expectancy at birth were largely based on partial data in 2020 in some countries, and thus reported a decrease in life expectancy at birth due to the COVID-19 pandemic [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19], while several studies estimated the changes in life expectancy at birth in 2021 compared with 2020 or 2019 in some countries [3,20,21]. For example, life expectancy at birth in the USA decreased by approximately half a year from 2020 to 2021 and reached its lowest level since 1996 [20]. ...
Background
Current estimates indicate that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused 14.9 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. Thus, estimating the change in life expectancy at birth due to the COVID-19 pandemic could aid in understanding its impact and implementing public health initiatives.
Methods
We collected data on the life expectancy at birth of the combined population between 1990 and 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels from the 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. In this time series study, we estimated the trend segments, the change of trend years (joinpoints), the annual percentage change (APC) in life expectancy at birth within each trend segment, and the average APC (AAPC) in life expectancy at birth during the full study period using joinpoint regression analysis.
Results
The global life expectancy at birth decreased from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71.0 years in 2021, with an annual decrease of 1.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0, 1.5) during the 2019-2021 period, despite an overall increasing trend during the entire period from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 0.3%; 95% CI = 0.3, 0.4). We observed a significantly increasing trend in life expectancy at birth in all regions and nearly 87.7% (207/236) of the world’s countries and areas during the entire period (1990-2021). All continental regions except Africa and Oceania experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with an APC of -1.2% (95% CI = -1.5, -0.9) for Asia, -2.1% (95% CI = -2.7, -1.6) for Latin America and the Caribbean, -1.1% (95% CI = -1.6, -0.6) for Northern America, and -1.4% (95% CI = -1.9, -0.9) for Europe. Among all countries and areas, 107 countries and areas (45.3%) experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in the most recent time segment, with 77 countries and areas (32.6%) experiencing a significant decreasing trend during the 2019-2021 period.
Conclusions
The world experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with a decrease of 1.8 years; all continental regions except Africa and Oceania and 77 countries and areas experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth. These decreasing trends at global, regional, and national levels during the 2019-2021 period reflected the COVID-19 pandemic’s direct and indirect adverse effects on life expectancy at birth.
... To better understand the mortality conditions in India, several researchers have looked at age-specific percent contributions to e 0 and sex differentials in e 0 and G 0 [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. The recent Covid-19 pandemic has affected many countries in different ways, and the works of literature have emphasized that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is unevenly distributed in population groups and geographical areas [20][21][22][23][24][25]. A recent study by Yadav et al. (2021) has shown that India's e 0 dropped by 2.0 years in the pandemic year 2020 versus the non-pandemic year 2019. ...
Background:
Measuring life expectancy and life disparity can assist in comprehending how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the mortality estimates in the Indian population. The present study aims to study the life expectancy and life disparity at birth at the national and subnational levels before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the NFHS and SRS data.
Methods:
The measures Life expectancy at birth (e_0) and Life disparity at birth (e_0^†) were computed for the non-pandemic and pandemic years from NFHS (2015-16), SRS (2015) and NFHS (2019-21), SRS (2020) respectively at the national and Subnational level in India. Using NFHS data for the 36 states and SRS data for the 22 states, the study calculates e_0 and e_0^† by total, male and female population.
Results:
The e_0 for male and female decline from 64.3 years and 69.2 years in 2015-16 to 62.9 years and 68.9 years in 2019-21. The e_0 shows a drop of approximately 1.4 years for males and 0.3 years for females in the pandemic year 2019-21 when compared to the non-pandemic year 2015-16. At the subnational level e_0 shows a decline for 22 states in person, 23 states in males and 21 states in females in the pandemic. year 2019-21 as compared to the non-pandemic years 2015-16. The e_0^† shows a decline for 21 states in person, 24 states in females and 17 states in males in the pandemic year than non-pandemic year The findings shows a significant losses in e_0 and gains in e_0^† for males than females in the pandemic year as compared to the non-pandemic year at the subnational level in India.
Conclusions:
COVID-19 pandemic has decreased e_0 and increased e_0^† in the pandemic year 2019-21 at the national and subnational level in India. COVID-19 had a significant impact on the age pattern of mortality for many states and male, female population and delayed the mortality transition in India.
... A large number of studies have estimated changes of life expectancy in this pandemic [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. By incorporating the WHO-UN TAG's age-and sex-specific estimates for excess deaths for each country, the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (thereafter WPP 2022) by the UN DESA, Population Division, reveals a global decrease of 1.74 years in life expectancy at birth (e 0 ) for both sexes from 2019 to 2021, with 1.80 years for males and 1.61 years for females, respectively [9]. ...
Objective
To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy at birth (e0) for 51 Asian countries and territories from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021.
Method
Based on age-sex-specific mortality used for estimating the changes in e0 for years 2019, 2020, and 2021 from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects, we employed Arriaga’s discrete method to decompose changes in e0 into both absolute and relative contributions of changes in age-specific death rate, and further obtained the age-sex-specific contribution to changes in e0 by country/territory and period (i.e., 2019–2020 and 2020–2021) for Asia.
Findings
The COVID-19 pandemic reduced 1.66 years in e0 of the Asian population from 2019 to 2021, slightly lower than the world average of 1.74 years. South Asia had a high loss of 3.01 years, whereas Eastern Asia had almost no changes. Oman, Lebanon, India, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and the Philippines experienced a high loss of above 2.5 years in e0. Despite significant national and territorial variations, the decline of e0 in Asia was mostly from the age group of 60–79 years, followed by age groups of 80 + and 45–59 years; and age groups of children contributed little (i.e., 0–4 and 5–14 years old). Males suffered more losses than females in this pandemic. Asian nations saw less loss in e0 in the second year of the pandemic, i.e., 2020–2021, than in the first year, i.e., 2019–2020, but this recovery trend was not observed in Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia. Countries from Central Asia and Western Asia, such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Oman, had extraordinarily more losses in e0 in the first year at ages around 70.
Conclusion
The COVID-19 pandemic had significantly affected e0 of Asian populations, and most contribution to the reduction of e0 came from the three older age groups, 60–79 years, 80 + years, and 45–59 years, with great variations across countries/territories. Our findings could have important implications for development of more resilient public health systems in Asian societies with better policy interventions for vulnerable demographic groups.
