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Temperature reconstructions of the past 1000 years, especially the one from Mann et al (1998, 1999) have been a prominent image in the climate change debate, giving rise to, among other things, that 1998 was the "warmest year of the millennium", a prominent claim in IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001). Similar claims are made in the IPCC Fourth Ass...
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... problem arising from only three sites affects 9 of 10 reconstructions, because, despite frequent claims that the reconstructions are "independent", these three series are used in all or nearly the reconstructions. Briffa's Tornetrask series are used in every reconstruction, as well as the IPCC proxy spaghetti graph in Box 6.4 Figure 1 (see "N Sweden"); his Urals series (Box 6.4 Figure 2 "NW Russia") or its predecessor is used in all but one reconstruction while bristlecones/foxtails, either as Mann's PC1 or directly, are used in all but 3 reconstructions. ...
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... the problem, in the 11 th century, all the IPCC reconstructions rely on a very small number of proxies -between 3 and 18. In all but two cases, all or all but one of the medieval proxies are drawn from the 8 stereotyped proxies illustrated in IPCC 2007 Box 6.4 Figure 2. This non-independence was noted by Wegman et al (2006), who observed that it was hardly surprising that they would yield similar results. ...
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In den Vereinigten Staaten stellte das Kriegsende für die Jahrringforschung keinen so starken Bruch dar wie in Mitteleuropa, und auch während der ersten Nachkriegsjahre zeigte sich – vor allem am Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research in Tucson – eine gewisse institutionelle Kontinuität. Von einem „Modernisierungsschub“ lässt sich jedoch ähnlich wie in Europa während der ersten Nachkriegsjahre noch nicht sprechen.
Thank you for the invitation to speak here. I've spent most of my life in business, mostly on the stock market side of mining exploration deals- not the most obvious introduction to climate science, but one which is perhaps more relevant than people may think. In a prep for a radio interview coming here, the radio host commented that it was impossible for members of the public to personally investigate the science and thus, at some point, it was necessary to simply have faith in the scientists. But something similar could be said in all walks of life, where the need for faith is tempered by external due diligence. If you’re offering securities to the public, there are complicated and expensive processes of due diligence, involving audits of financial statements, independent engineering reports, opinions from securities lawyers and so on. There are laws requiring the disclosure of adverse results. These precautions obviously don’t eliminate financial misconduct, but they are serious attempts to protect the public and make markets work more effectively. There is far more independent due diligence on the smallest prospectus offering securities to the public than on a Nature article that might end up having a tremendous impact on
