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Largest historic earthquakes together with historically active volcanoes: A: Kamchatka M 9.0. B: Chile M 9.5. C: Alaska M 9.2. D: Sumatra-Andaman M 9.3. Earthquake epicenters are given by white star; rupture zone (yellowish shaded area) is based on aftershock distributions and studies by Banerjee et al. (2005), Barrientos and Ward (1990), Holdahl and Sauber (1994), Johnson and Satake (1999), and Yagi (2005). Volcanoes shown by orange triangles; labeled volcanoes erupted within 3 yr after earthquakes are shown by red triangles.
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Two volcanic eruptions in the Sumatra-Andaman arc that followed the disastrous M 9.3 earthquake of 26 December 2004 raise the question of whether these eruptions were triggered by the earthquake. Here we present new evidence to suggest that earthquake-induced decompression of the volcano magma systems leads to such eruptions. Numerical modeling rev...
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... Crustal structure and magma dynamics are intimately linked at all scales, but how this interaction occurs remains poorly constrained (Walter and Amelung, 2007;Mahony et al., 2011;Villamor et al., 2017a;Oliva et al., 2019). The weakening of the crust by a magma reservoir influences the location, style and rates of activity of faults in colder areas of the adjacent rift (van Wyk de Vries and Merle, 1996;Lahitte et al., 2003;Ellis et al., 2014;Villamor et al., 2017a;), yet modelling relies on incomplete data (Corti, 2012). ...
Silicic caldera volcanoes present major volcanic and seismic hazards, but also host dynamic hydrothermal and groundwater systems and a rich but largely unexplored subsurface biosphere. Many of these volcanoes are hosted in rift settings. The intricate connections and feedbacks among magmatism, rifting, hydrothermal processes, and the biosphere in these complex systems remain poorly understood, necessitating subsurface joint observations that are only enabled by scientific drilling. The 45 CALDERA (Connections Among Life, geo-Dynamics and Eruptions in a Rifting Arc caldera) project workshop funded by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) gathered multidisciplinary international experts in January 2023 to advance planning of a scientific drilling project within one of these dynamic, rift-hosted calderas, the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), Aotearoa New Zealand. The OVC's high eruption rate, frequent unrest events and earthquake swarms, location in a densely faulted rapidly extending 50 rift, abundant groundwater-geothermal fluid circulations, and diverse surface hot spring microbiota make it an ideal location for exploring connected geo-hydro-biosphere via scientific drilling, and to develop a testbed for novel volcano monitoring approaches. Drilling configurations with at least two boreholes (~200 m and ~1000-1500 m-deep) were favoured to achieve the multidisciplinary objectives of the CALDERA project. Decadal monitoring including biosphere activity and composition has the potential to evaluate the response of the hydro-bio system to volcano-tectonic activity. In addition to the OVC caldera-55 scale datasets already available, site surveys will be conducted to select the best drilling locations. The CALDERA project at the OVC would provide, for the first time, an understanding of volcano-tectonic-hydrological-biological connections in a caldera-rift system, and a baseline for global comparisons with other volcanoes, rifts, and hydrothermal systems. CALDERA would serve as an unprecedented model system to understand how and how quickly the subsurface biosphere responds to geologic activities. Discoveries will improve assessment of volcanic and seismic hazards, 60 guide the sustainable management and/or conservation of groundwater and geothermal resources and microbial ecosystems, and provide a forum for interweaving mātauranga Māori and Western knowledge systems. Short summary. Volcanoes where tectonic plates drift apart pose eruption and earthquake hazards. Underground waters are difficult to track. 65 Underground microbial life is probably plentiful but unexplored. Scientists discussed the idea of drilling two boreholes in the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, to unravel the connections between volcano, faults, geothermal and the biosphere, also integrating mātauranga Māori (Indigenous Knowledge), to assess hazards, and manage resources and microbial ecosystems. 3 70 Karakia Whakawātea Unuhia unuhia Unuhia te urutapu nui kia wātea Kia māmā te ngākau, te tinana me te wairua Koia rā e Rongo, whakairia ake ki runga Kia tīna! Tīna Haumi e, Hui e, Tāiki e Draw away, draw away Draw away the sacredness and let us be free Let our hearts, bodies and spirit be unburdened Oh Rongo suspend this plea up high And let it be affirmed Let it be binding, together, all in agreeance As per Māori custom, we start and end this paper/ kōrero with a karakia, provided in Te Reo Māori for CALDERA. A karakia is a prayer of respect and thanks to Papatūānuku our Earth mother and sky father Ranginui, and to the taiao (environment) that gives us life.
... Extensional crustal motions across many island arcs create space for magma ascent and influence the depths and sizes of magma storage regions (Acocella and Funiciello, 2010;Bachmann and Huber, 2016). Large earthquakes cause changes in crustal stresses sufficient to induce eruptions as far as several hundreds of kilometers away (e.g., Walter and Amelung, 2007). Changes in sea level driven by tectonics or climate modulate volcanic activity by loading or unloading the magma plumbing system (Kutterolf et al., 2013;Sternai et al., 2017;Satow et al., 2021). ...
... One of the possible factors that triggered the hydrothermal activity in the study area can be a tectonic-induced earthquake in the Andaman basin. It is well known that tectonic earthquakes can trigger volcanic activity (Harris and Ripepe, 2007;Walter and Amelung, 2007) and the Andaman volcanic arc region is known to be prone for tectonically induced earthquakes (Kamesh Raju et al., 2012;Aswini et al., 2020Aswini et al., , 2021. The earthquake induced enhanced volcanic eruption has been reported from Javanese volcanoes (Harris and Ripepe, 2007) which is close to the Andaman volcanic arc. ...
... The earthquake induced enhanced volcanic eruption has been reported from Javanese volcanoes (Harris and Ripepe, 2007) which is close to the Andaman volcanic arc. Walter and Amelung (2007) attributed mega thrust earthquake (M > 9) for Sumatra-Andaman arc eruptions. Six major earthquakes (M > 6) were recorded in 2008, 2009, and 2010 close to the study area (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqua ...
... The second hypothesis suggests that ongoing magmatic injections aligned with the far-field tectonic regional stress axes exert a fluid-driven force against wall rocks. When subduction megathrust events occur, hypothesis (1) is plausible considering the permeability enhancement in inherited faults after dynamic alteration of seismic waves 69 and volumetric dilatation of the crust 70 . Otherwise, we propose that the long-term secondary Type-C stress pattern documented in Planchón-Peteroa, Nevados de Chillán, Copahue-Caviahue, and Tolhuaca volcanoes is coherent with the second hypothesis since, in all these cases, Type-C is rotated 90-degrees from the primary stress state solution (see Fig. 2). ...
Decoding means decrypting a hidden message. Here, the encrypted messages are the state of stress, fluid pathways, and volcano tectonic processes occurring in volcanoes of the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). To decode these messages, we use earthquake focal mechanisms, fault slip data, and a Monte Carlo simulation that predicts potential pathways for magmatic and hydrothermal fluids. From this analysis, we propose that SVZ volcanoes have three end-member stress patterns: (i) Stress-A, a strike-slip regime coupled with the regional far-field tectonic stress; (ii) Stress-B, an extensional regime that may be promoted by volcanic edifice loading and upward pressure due to magma inflation occurring within the upper brittle-crust; and (iii) Stress-C, a local and transient fluid-driven stress rotated ~90 degrees from Stress-A. Notoriously, Stress-C pattern was observed in most volcanoes with historical eruptions. We propose that volcanoes presenting Stress-B are attractive geothermal targets, while Stress-C could be used as a predicting signal for impending eruptions.
... The SFZ formed as a result of the oblique convergence process of the Indo-Australian plate toward the Eurasian Plate, which resulted in considerable stretching north-south along the fault (McCaffrey 2009) with a relative plate motion rate varies from 35-50 mm/year (Kreemer et al. 2014). This process triggers the individualization of slivers of lithosphere between the trench slope and the large-scale strikeslip fault that control the location of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (Chlieh et al. 2007;Walter and Amelung 2007;Fernández-Blanco et al. 2016), and it shows a large slip rate along the fault, that is an average of around 15-16 mm/year Natawidjaja et al. 2017). ...
Potential seismic hazards in the Sumatran Fault Zone (SFZ) have been highlighted as a consequence of significant earthquakes (MW ≥ 6.5). Fault geometry might control the initiation and propagation of rupture, which develops the importance of fault segmentation on the SFZ. In the last two decades, SFZ segments have been proposed through geological observations of surface traces using fractal and structural discontinuity analysis and seismic using seismicity clustering. This study presents a new insight into segmenting the SFZ using b-value changes through the maximum likelihood analysis to represent the characterization of the fault. We mapped a spatial analysis of b-values using a catalog of 681 shallow earthquakes with a moment magnitude (MW) between MW3.0 and MW5.6 with a standard error \(\left(\sigma_{{\text{M}}_\text{W}}\right)\) of ± 0.21, estimated by applying the spectral analysis method. We get the average of b-value along the SFZ, which is quite low at 0.9 with a standard error \(\left({\overline\sigma}_\text{b}\right)\) of ± 0.031. The lowest b-value (b = 0.74) was observed in northern Sumatra (S1), and the highest b-value (b = 1.39) was in central Sumatra (S5). We analyzed the pattern of b-values changes spatially toward seismicity distribution. Based on b-value changes, we obtained the SFZ divided into 15 segments which describe a pattern of heterogeneity of b-value in characterizing the faults. These results provide a new perspective in explaining potential areas of seismic hazard along the segment of SFZ.
... The 45 correlation between earthquakes and eruptions has been also challenged (Eggert and Walter, 2009; 46 2017), giving rise to the notion of sensitive volcanoes (Sawi and Manga, 2018) referring to the volcanoes that are 47 particularly susceptible to experiencing eruptions after a nearby earthquake due to their geographic location, 48 activity state, and the type of magma they contain. In this way, the most common parameters in earthquake-volcano 49 connections are earthquake magnitude, distance to the volcano, and how close to a critical state the volcanic system 50 is at the time of the earthquake (Brodsky et al., 1998;Manga and Brodsky, 2006;Walter and Amelung, 2007; 51 Bonali, 2013;Seropian et al., 2021). Evidence also suggests a variety of scales in both time and distance for 52 volcano reactions, ranging from a few seconds to several decades (Linde and Sacks, 1998;Hill et al., 2002; Manga 53 and Brodsky, 2006;Farias et al., 2014) and from a few to several hundreds of kilometers (Eggert and Walter, 2009; 54 Aiken and Peng, 2014). ...
... The first process promotes exsolving www.nature.com/scientificreports/ volatile components (H 2 O and CO 2 ) from liquid to gas [37][38][39][40][41] . If the magma plumbing system is open or has weak walls that are easily expanded or fractured, increased pressure creates paths for the magma to migrate, so magma pressure will be further reduced and bubbling will be accelerated. ...
The relation between earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, each of which is manifested by large-scale tectonic plate and mantle motions, has been widely discussed. Mount Fuji, in Japan, last erupted in 1707, paired with a magnitude (M)-9-class earthquake 49 days prior. Motivated by this pairing, previous studies investigated its effect on Mount Fuji after both the 2011 M9 Tohoku megaquake and a triggered M5.9 Shizuoka earthquake 4 days later at the foot of the volcano, but reported no potential to erupt. More than 300 years have already passed since the 1707 eruption, and even though consequences to society caused by the next eruption are already being considered, the implications for future volcanism remain uncertain. This study shows how volcanic low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) in the deep part of the volcano revealed unrecognized activation after the Shizuoka earthquake. Our analyses also show that despite an increase in the rate of occurrence of LFEs, these did not return to pre-earthquake levels, indicating a change in the magma system. Our results demonstrate that the volcanism of Mount Fuji was reactivated by the Shizuoka earthquake, implying that this volcano is sufficiently sensitive to external events that are considered to be enough to trigger eruptions.
... The closely spaced occurrences of the Zhupanov earthquake, the detected velocity increase at BZG, and the proposed initiation of Bezymianny's eruptive cycle (Mania et al., 2019) are noteworthy. It raises the question of whether Bezymianny's 2016/2017 eruption was tectonically triggered as reported in some rare cases (Hill et al., 2002;Kennedy, 2017;Seropian et al., 2021;Walter & Amelung, 2007;Watt et al., 2009). However, based on the currently available data, we would consider such conclusions speculative. ...
Volcanic inflation and deflation often precede eruptions and can lead to seismic velocity changes (dv/v $dv/v$) in the subsurface. Recently, interferometry on the coda of ambient noise‐cross‐correlation functions yielded encouraging results in detecting these changes at active volcanoes. Here, we analyze seismic data recorded at the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group in Kamchatka, Russia, between summer of 2015 and summer of 2016 to study signals related to volcanic activity. However, ubiquitous volcanic tremors introduce distortions in the noise wavefield that cause artifacts in the dv/v $dv/v$ estimates masking the impact of physical mechanisms. To avoid such instabilities, we propose a new technique called time‐segmented passive image interferometry. In this technique, we employ a hierarchical clustering algorithm to find periods in which the wavefield can be considered stationary. For these periods, we perform separate noise interferometry studies. To further increase the temporal resolution of our results, we use an AI‐driven approach to find stations with similar dv/v $dv/v$ responses and apply a spatial stack. The impacts of snow load and precipitation dominate the resulting dv/v $dv/v$ time series, as we demonstrate with the help of a simple model. In February 2016, we observe an abrupt velocity drop due to the M7.2 Zhupanov earthquake. Shortly after, we register a gradual velocity increase of about 0.3% at Bezymianny Volcano coinciding with surface deformation observed using remote sensing techniques. We suggest that the inflation of a shallow reservoir related to the beginning of Bezymianny's 2016/2017 eruptive cycle could have caused this local velocity increase and a decorrelation of the correlation function coda.
... 3. Deeper investigation of the relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and the mass erupted in arc volcanoes. This relationship was mainly investigated in terms of number of volcanoes which erupted after an earthquake (Eggert & Walter, 2009;González et al., 2021;Hill et al., 2002;Walter & Amelung, 2007). However, important differences can exist when considering the erupted mass instead of the number of erupting volcanoes. ...
Volcanism is one of the main mechanisms transferring mass and energy between the interior of the Earth and the Earth's surface. However, the global mass flux of lava, volcanic ash and explosive pyroclastic deposits is not well constrained. Here we review published estimates of the mass of the erupted products from 1980 to 2019 by a global compilation. We identified 1,064 magmatic eruptions that occurred between 1980 and 2019 from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program database. For each eruption, we reported both the total erupted mass and its partitioning into the different volcanic products. Using this data set, we quantified the temporal and spatial evolution of subaerial volcanism and its products from 1980 to 2019 at a global and regional scale. The mass of magma erupted in each analyzed decade ranged from 1.1–4.9 × 10¹³ kg. Lava is the main subaerial erupted product representing ∼57% of the total erupted mass of magma. The products related to the biggest eruptions (Magnitude ≥6), with long recurrence times, can temporarily make explosive products more abundant than lava (e.g., decade 1990–1999). Twenty‐three volcanoes produced ∼72% of the total mass, while two different sets of 15 volcanoes erupted >70% of the total mass of either effusive or explosive products. At a global scale, the 10 and 40‐year average eruptive rates calculated from 1980 to 2019 have the same magnitude as the long‐term average eruptive rates (from thousand to millions of years), because in both cases rates are scaled for times comparable to the recurrence time of the biggest eruptions occurred.
... It is in fact very rare when they have. Nevertheless, it has been observed and statistically suggested that a moderate-to large-magnitude nearby earthquake, or a large-magnitude distal earthquake can trigger an eruption or increase a volcanic activity after the occurrence of this earthquake (Linde and Sacks, 1998;Marzocchi, 2002;Brodsky et al., 1998;Manga and Brodsky, 2006;Walter and Amelung, 2007;Watt et al., 2009). ...
... In many cases, the volcano was not erupting before the occurrence of the potential triggering-earthquake but was already in a mature stage for erupting (i.e., on an on-going process towards an eruption). In other cases, it was already in an active period before (sometimes until a few years) the occurrence of the potential triggering earthquake (Carr, 1977;Barrientos, 1994;Hill et al., 2002;Marzocchi, 2002;Manga and Brodsky, 2006;Walter and Amelung, 2007;Eggert and Walter, 2009;Nishimura, 2017). For example, the Michinmahuida volcano was in an active state three months before the M w ~ 8.2, 1835 Chilean thrust earthquake which was proposed to trigger its strong eruption. ...
It has long been suggested that some earthquakes can trigger volcanic eruptions under specific circumstances. This requires at least two conditions: 1) the volcano must be ready to erupt; 2) the earthquake must be close enough to the volcano with a distance depending on the earthquake magnitude. As the internal state of the volcano is generally unknown, only the conditions that an earthquake must satisfy to potentially promote a volcanic eruption are here studied. The earthquake must have a “large” magnitude when it is “distal”, or it must be “closer” to the volcano when its magnitude is “smaller”. An objective criterion of how “far/near”, and “large/small” the earthquake must be is defined using the simple nondimensional d/S index, where “d” is the earthquake-volcano distance, S is the earthquake's rupture surface and S its characteristic length. This index indicates when the volcano is in the “Near-Field” (distances “d” comparable to the characteristic length of the earthquake, corresponding to small d/S) or is in the “Far-Field” (i.e., large d/S). A compilation of past studies corresponding to 93 earthquakes that triggered 206 eruptions at 98 volcanoes shows that 89% of the index values are smaller than 5, and 95% are smaller than 10, corresponding to Near-Field earthquake-volcano distances. This index can easily be used in volcanic Observatories to verify which earthquake can promote a volcanic eruption, without calculating near- and far-field seismic waves.
