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Understanding the reasons of the disappearance of oasis civilizations along the ancient Silk Road will provide useful references for human’s adaptation to environmental changes in the extreme arid regions in the nowadays and future. Although some studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate in the world, the de...
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... As it is for today, the drought has affected on the society in the ancient time. Its effect has been such strong that several wellknown civilizations including the Mayas [9][10][11], the Hittites [12][13], and civilizations along the ancient Silk Road [14] have collapsed because of its consequences reducing the agricultural yield, causing famine and destabilizing the food security. ...
Where a hillside stratified aquifer intersects the earth surface, springs and outseeping are observed. Cutting into this zone, thus opening it by digging, allows to increase and capture water outflow. As a matter of principle this classical method for water extraction without pumping, which is still found in hilly rural regions today, was already used 3600 years ago by the Hittites to fill the ponds of their capital Hattuşa in Central Anatolia. The today sedimented reservoirs were dug downhill of groundwater bearing zones. Rising in winter, groundwater discharged into the ponds through alongside cuts. The Hittites avoided the risks of strongly varying surface flows by opening near-surface groundwater and stratum aquifers. Although hydraulic investigation based on in-situ measurement of groundwater level supports the short-term efficiency of the ponds in supplying water to the ancient city, at the long-term, the decline of the Empire was probably triggered by severe droughts expanded over years. This seems plausible as severe droughts are still being experienced. For a higher and more reliable water yield, the further development went from ’cutting’ in to ’penetrating’ into the aquifer with tunnel-like drain conduits which collected the water and conveyed it to settlements and irrigation schemes. The improved water extraction system, named qanats, appeared in Eastern Anatolia and Persia about 500 years after the abandon of Hattuşa. An example of a qanat system in western Iran is presented in this study with less emphasis compared to the cut-in yet representative enough to demonstrate its role in supplying water sustainably. We conclude that the ancient time thinking is the same as that of modern engineering, and the ancient time hydraulic works are fundamental for today's civil structures.
... On the other hand, the encroachment of crop land on grassland and woodland and the incidence of the secondary salinization of arable soils related to improper irrigation and rising water tables were contributing factors. Over 60% of the areas converted from grassland to farmland exhibited slightly saline soil, leading to ecological degradation [18,41,56,57]. The expansion of agricultural oases has been linked to deforestation and elevated water usage for irrigation. ...
Ecological challenges resulting from soil salinization in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), exacerbated by climate change and human activities, have emphasized the need for a quick and accurate assessment of regional ecological environmental quality (EEQ) and driving mechanisms. To address this issue, this study has developed a remote-sensing ecological index with salinity adaptability (RSEISI) for EEQ assessment in the Tarim River Basin by integrating the comprehensive salinity index (CSI) into the remote-sensing ecological index (RSEI). The RSEISI enhances the sensitivity of soil salinity and characterizes the surface features of arid regions, thus expanding the applicability. Then, we used time-series analysis methods and a geodetector to quantify the spatial temporal trends and driving factors of EEQ in the TRB from 2000 to 2022. The results show that the RSEISI with salinity adaptation effectively monitors the EEQ of the TRB. The EEQ of the TRB displayed the situation of oasis expansion, desert deterioration, and glacier melting, and the multiyear average EEQ grades were dominated by medium and poor grades in desert and saline areas, while medium, good, and excellent grades were concentrated in oasis and mountainous areas. Looking at the trend of change in conjunction with land-use types, the EEQ of the TRB showed a mild degradation trend mainly in unused land, followed by a mild improvement trend in cropland and grassland. The Hurst index indicated that the EEQ of most areas of the TRB will improve in the future. Soil type, land use, precipitation, and temperature were considered to be key factors affecting the EEQ across the TRB, and changes in the EEQ were found to be the interaction of multiple factors. This study may provide innovative concepts and methodologies, scientific and technological support for ecological management, and green development models in the northwest arid zone.
... Summary of the review results. Tension Perception of a particular past collapsecollapse or reinvention?Scientific dialogue concerning whether a particular past collapse can be considered as such, or if the society in question resiliently transformed itself Rapa Nuicollapse(Dalton, Coats, & Luccasen, 2015;Diamond 2005;Roman et al., 2017) versus continuity(Mulrooney 2013;DiNapoli et al., 2020) Revolves around the role of climate change in past collapses, whether it was a primary cause of past societal collapses or not Climate change as the primary reason for past collapses in China(Feng et al., 2019;Li et al., 2016;Zheng et al., 2014) Attempts to identify more comprehensive explanations and lists of different causes of societal collapseDiamond's (2005) framework of 5 factors possibly contributing to collapse, Cumming and Peterson's (2017) 14 mechanisms of collapse in socioecological systems, Rubiños and Anderies's (2020) 12 major causes of collapse Tension The development of theories of collapse Attempts to develop a consolidated theory of societal collapse, able to explain any and every societal collapse Tainter's (1988) complexity theory, Brunk's (2002) theory of collapse based on self-organized criticality, Janssen et al.'s (2003) sunk-cost effects theory of collapse, Turchin et al.'s (2022) exploration of increasing societal complexity Discusses whether societal collapse is inevitable or if it can be postponedSome studies claim that societal collapse can be postponed or mitigated by continuously increasing complexity with the help of new energy, resources, and technological advances(Bardi, 2020;Dasgupta et al., 2019;Livni, 2019;Tainter, 1995) Tension Collapse or resilience?Debates whether societies actually collapse or resiliently transform and continue to exist in some kind of alternative form A stream of research proposing societal resilience instead of societal collapse(Butzer & Endfield, 2012;Lawler, 2010; McAnany & Yoffee, 2009) Fictional collapses can be used to influence readers about real-world developments in both a positive and negative direction Postapocalyptic narratives featuring heroes prevailing in dystopias may serve as inspiration( Jones, 2020), yet such narratives can also act as self-prophecies(Schneider-Mayerson, 2018) ...
Because of concerns that ongoing climate change could lead to a possible collapse of human civilization, the topic of societal (civilization) collapse has emerged as especially relevant, not least for the futures-oriented studies. While this has led to extensive research on societal collapse, there is a lack of consolidation and synthesis of the research. The purpose of this article is thus to systematize the extant research on societal collapse and suggest future research directions. This article offers a systematic multidisciplinary review of the existing literature (361 articles and 73 books) and identifies five scholarly conversations: past collapses, general explanations of collapse, alternatives to collapse, fictional collapses, and future climate change and societal collapse. The review builds the foundation for a critical discussion of each line of inquiry by focusing on theoretical tensions and themes within each scholarly conversation, ending with a discussion of how these conversations inform futures research.
... However, whether at present or in the future, excessive expansion of cropland and encroachment on grassland will lead to deterioration of the ecological environment. Therefore, the ecological degradation of the Tarim River Basin leaves the region to face the very great challenge of restoration [44]. With the ongoing development of urbanization and industrialization, the land structure of the basin will become the main problem affecting the ecological environment and thus hindering regional stability and development. ...
Land use/cover change has become an indispensable part of global eco-environmental change research. The Tarim River Basin is the largest inland river basin in China. It is also one of the most ecologically fragile areas in the country, with greening and desertification processes coexisting. This paper analyzes the evolution of land-use/cover change in the Tarim River Basin over the past 30 years based on remote sensing data. The research also explores the contribution of conversion between different land types to the ecological environment by selecting methods, such as transfer matrix and ecological contribution rate. Results indicate that grassland and barren land are the main land types in the region, accounting for 72.46% and 18.87% of the basin area, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, cropland area increased from 33,585.89 km2 to 52,436.40 km2, an increase of 56.13%, while barren land areas decreased from 781,380.57 km2 to 760,783.29 km2. Most of the land-use conversion was grassland to other land types and other land types to barren land. Since 1990, the conversion of barren land to grassland and cropland in the basin has led to ecological improvement, whereas the conversion of grassland to cropland has caused deterioration, but with a generally improving trend. It is anticipated that, over the next decade, changes in land types will involve increases in grassland and woodland area, decreases in barren land and cropland, and an overall improvement in the ecological environment in the watershed. Since agriculture and animal husbandry are the main industries in the Tarim River Basin and the land-use structure is dominated by cropland and grassland, several key measures should be implemented. These include improving land use, rationalizing the use of water and soil resources, slowing down the expansion of cropland, and alleviating the contradiction between humans and land, with the ultimate aim of achieving sustainable development of the social economy and ecological environment.
... On the northeastern QTP, the annual precipitation record from tree-rings also shows a decreasing trend during 380-580 CE (Yang et al., 2014) (Figure 3(e)). It has been shown that drought promoted the disappearance of ancient oases along the Silk Road during 300-400 CE (Li et al., 2016). Extreme droughts and desertification events have been proposed as a key trigger for the abandonment of ancient cities in previous studies Zhang et al., 2018). ...
Precipitation has been suggested as a crucial influencing factor in the primary productivity in arid and semi-arid regions, yet how moisture fluctuation in an arid mountain-basin system of the north Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has affected human activities is poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct the variations of grazing intensity in high elevations and regional humidity based on independent and high-resolution records of Sporormiella-type coprophilous fungal spores and pollen grains in the same well-dated sediment core from Lake Tian’E in the western Qilian Mountains over the past 3500 years. We find that stronger grazing activity was associated with low regional effective moisture, and propose that the drier regional climate pushed people and their livestock into the mountainous areas. A notable exception was a reduction of human and grazing activities in arid region with high mountains during 380–580 CE caused by centennial-length dry and cold conditions. In addition, it is also noteworthy that intensified grazing activity occurred during 580–720 CE and after ∼1920 CE, corresponding to a warmer and wetter climate and diverse subsistence strategies with social developments in the lowlands of the Hexi Corridor. Our findings potentially provide a historical reference for understanding how ancient people adapted to the climate change in arid region with high mountains.
... HCS has focused on hydroclimatic anomalies or periods of prolonged cooling, which allegedly disrupted growing seasons and thereby provoked famines, migrations and ultimately conflict within or between polities [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] . Controversial arguments hold that, amid these pressures, some societies 'collapsed' by abruptly losing socioeconomic complexity, political coherence and population [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21] . ...
A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the ‘history of climate and society’ (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate–society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived—and often thrived—in the face of climatic pressures. This Review proposes an interdisciplinary framework for researching climate–society interactions that focuses on the mechanisms through which climate change has influenced societies, and the uncertainties of discerning this influence across different spatiotemporal scales.
... Weiss et al. (1993), Cullen et al. (2000) and Cookson et al. (2019) show that regional aridity, driven by climate change likely due to volcanic forcing, contributed to the collapse of multiple societies across Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire in~twenty-second century BCE. Similarly, natural climate change has been implicated in the collapse of multiple Late Bronze Age societies around the Mediterranean (Cline 2014), including Mycenaean Kingdoms in~twelfth century BCE (Finné et al. 2017), the Harappan Civilization of South Asia iñ nineteenth century BCE (Giosan et al. 2012), the Angkor Empire of Southeast Asia in ~fifteenth century CE (Buckley et al. 2010), multiple Chinese Dynasties (Zhang et al. 2006) and civilizations along the Silk Road (Li et al. 2016) during the previous millennium, the Norse Vikings of Greenland in~fifteenth century CE (Kintisch 2016) and the Tiwanaku Empire of Pre-Columbian South America in~tenth century CE (Ortloff and Kolata 1993), amongst others. These first type of studies establish precedence of natural climate change as a mechanism of societal collapse throughout history, demonstrating the risk that anthropogenic climate change similarly poses to contemporary society. ...
There is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse pathway. We first review the societal collapse and existential risk literature and define a set of determinants of societal collapse. We develop an original methodology, using these determinants as societal collapse proxies, to identify an empirical evidence base of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse in contemporary society and then structure it using a novel-format causal loop diagram (CLD) defined at global scale and national granularity. The resulting evidence base varies in temporal and spatial distribution of study and in the type of data-driven methods used. The resulting CLD documents the spread of the evidence base, using line thickness and colour to depict density and type of data-driven method respectively. It enables exploration of how the effects of climate change may undermine agricultural systems and disrupt food supply, which can lead to economic shocks, socio-political instability as well as starvation, migration and conflict. Suggestions are made for future work that could build on this paper to further develop our qualitative understanding of, and quantitative complex systems modelling capabilities for analysing, the causal pathways between climate change and societal collapse.
... The fluctuation and changes in the ancient Silk Road routes have attracted intensive investigations from historians, archaeologists and geographers (Wood, 2002;Zhang et al., 2013;Li et al., 2016;Frankopan, 2015;Frachetti et al., 2017;Yang et al., 2019) , which provide the abundant information on the rise and fall of Silk Road in different regions and laid down solid foundations for past humanenvironment interactions. Previous studies suggested that the deteriorated climate conditions in eastern China likely caused trade decline along the silk road (Du, 1996;Qin et al., 2011;Li et al., 2016;Zhang et al., 2018a;Hill, 2019). ...
... The fluctuation and changes in the ancient Silk Road routes have attracted intensive investigations from historians, archaeologists and geographers (Wood, 2002;Zhang et al., 2013;Li et al., 2016;Frankopan, 2015;Frachetti et al., 2017;Yang et al., 2019) , which provide the abundant information on the rise and fall of Silk Road in different regions and laid down solid foundations for past humanenvironment interactions. Previous studies suggested that the deteriorated climate conditions in eastern China likely caused trade decline along the silk road (Du, 1996;Qin et al., 2011;Li et al., 2016;Zhang et al., 2018a;Hill, 2019). However, some other studies attributed the decline of the ancient Silk Road to nomadic invasions (Whitfield and Sims-Williams, 2004;Chin, 2008;Zhang et al., 2015) or environmental disasters caused by inappropriate human activities (Hou et al., 1996;Mischke et al., 2017). ...
The fluctuations of periodic civilization patterns in China can be ascribed to climate change and historical geopolitical variations. The ancient Silk Road was served as the most prosperous routes connecting the East Asia and Europe during Han Dynasty (206 BC‐220 AD) and Sui‐Tang Dynasties (AD 581‐907), but was abandoned in Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern Dynasties (220‐580AD). Our understanding of the possible causes of the shift in the ancient Silk Road during this period remains uncertain. Here we present a ~7‐year resolution record based on OSL age‐depth model (ca. 120 BC‐750AD) from Luntai (LT) profile, ~5 km from the modern Tarim River which fed the ancient oases, to assess the potential effects on the documented decline of the ancient Silk Road from 2nd to 6th century. In this study, five episodes of hydrological change were identified by combining grain size, magnetic susceptibility, geochemical elements and TOC / TN contents. Our record reveals that cold and wet climate dominates at 120BC‐50 AD and 550‐750AD, respectively, indicated by strong hydrodynamic. Relative warm and humid condition occurred at 120‐550AD, between eastern Han and Sui‐Tang dynasties, indicating the stable and better regional climate state. Comparison with regional and other areas of China demonstrates that the paleoclimatic variations between the eastern and western China exhibits roughly discrepancy, the hydrological condition in arid region is inconsistent with the decline of ancient Silk Road in Tarim basin. We suggested that political and societal factors are the key issues among the causes of interruption of Silk Road during Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties, in the meanwhile with the co‐occurrence of societal crises, turmoil and division in China, instead of the deteriorating climate in south Xinjiang.
... The Ancient Silk Road has a complex geographic environment, diverse climate types, and a long history of human activities. Studies have shown that the rise and collapse of some famous ancient kingdoms along the Ancient Silk Road (such as the decline of the Loulan Kingdom, Gaochang, and the Roman Empire) and social events (Mongol westward conquests) may be closely related to climate changes (Ge, 2011;Li et al., 2016). ...
The Ancient Silk Road has a history of more than 2000 years and gave birth to the diversities of culture between East and West. Climate change may have played a crucial role in this process and in the flourishing and decline of civilizations. In this work, high-resolution temperature reconstructions covering more than 1000 years along the Ancient Silk Road are reviewed, and the main characteristics of temperature and hydroclimatic changes are summarized. Four warm stages occurred that included the 1st–3rd centuries, the late 7th century to the early 11th century, the mid-12th century to the mid-13th century, and since the 20th century, and three cold stages, including the 4th century to the early 7th century, the middle of the 11th century to the early 12th century, and the end of the 13th century to the mid-19th century, occurred. Within these various stages, regional differences existed in amplitudes and starting–ending years of the cold/warm phases. Wetness and dryness variabilities during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) were greater than during the Little Ice Age in Northwestern China. The climate was dry during the MCA in Central Asia, South Scandinavia, and North-central Europe. In addition, the climate backgrounds of several famous kingdoms flowering and social events that flourished during these times, such as the Roman Empire, the Loulan Kingdom, the Tibetan Kingdom, and the three unprecedented Mongol westward conquests, are discussed.
... Several composite temperature records spanning the last 2000 years reveal a warm interval in China during AD 0-240 (Yang et al., 2002(Yang et al., , 2009), together with a shift from frequent flooding to frequent drought conditions in central China at AD 300 (Yan et al., 1992). Notably, the collapse of several Chinese dynastic societies was linked to widespread drought events, which is inferred from the co-occurrence of societal crises and climatic events (Li et al., 2016;Tan et al., 2015;Wang et al., 2003;Zhang et al., 2018). However, human activity has also been recognized as the primary cause of societal collapses of the Loulan Kingdom in the Tarim Basin. ...
We present a 2000-year high-resolution diatom record from Bosten Lake (Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang), which is the largest inland freshwater lake in China. Our aims were to investigate the influence of climate change and human activity on its aquatic ecology during the late Holocene. During AD 280–480, a low water level and high salinity occurred, based on the dominance of epipelic and brackish diatoms. In addition, the diatom stratigraphy, combined with records of mean grain size and carbonate content, suggests that the lake experienced a high level of eolian input from the surrounding dunes. We hypothesize that during this interval, Loulan Kingdom, an important city of the Han Dynasty, located downstream of Bosten Lake, was abandoned due to the increasing scarcity of water resources and related harsh environmental conditions, including stronger eolian activity, which were the consequences of climate change. The dominance of meso-eutrophic small fragilarioid diatoms coincides with warm and arid intervals which also correspond to intensified human activity. These intervals correspond to the development of the Tang Dynasty (from ~AD 600), the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (AD 1000–1200), and the last ~200 years. A shift from meso-eutrophic/benthic diatoms to oligotrophic/planktonic diatoms occurred during an interval of enhanced precipitation throughout the humid ‘Little Ice Age’ (AD 1600–1800). A return to markedly eutrophic conditions and a decreasing lake level occurred after the ‘Little Ice Age’, reflecting the more arid regional environment of the last 200 years. The high variability of the proxies suggests that both climate change and human activity were the major drivers of the ecological status of Bosten Lake during the late Holocene. We suggest that both the continuous increase of human activity and ongoing global warming will cause the major eutrophication or salinization of the freshwater lakes in the arid zone of northwest China.
