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The aim of this study is to apply the stochastic job search framework to the analysis of three
transition economies (Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic). Two versions of equilibrium
unemployment models have been developed resembling Mortensen and Pissarides’ models, namely
the dynamic and stochastic models. The dynamic model’s properties were...
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... job-finding and separation rates are strongly procyclical, but the job-finding rate is about 20 times more volatile than the separation rate. The average job-finding rates for the selected period were 0.55 for Hungary, 0.14 for Poland, and 0.29 for the Czech Republic. It can be noticed that in 2000 there were huge differences in job-finding rates across the countries, but this disparity decreased significantly until 2014. The average separation rates were quite similar, with values of 0.016 for Hungary, 0.024 for Poland, and 0.014 for the Czech Republic. The inverses of the finding rates ( 1/ τ ) give an average unemployment dura- w tion of 1.8 quarters for Hungary, 7 quarters for Poland, and 3.5 quarters for the Czech Republic, which roughly corresponds to the empirical data (Eurostat – LFS). Figure 3 plots the two key variables: vacancies and unemployment. The average vacancy ratio estimated for Hungary was 0.010, 0.014 for Poland, and 0.013 for the Czech Republic. The low value of this indicator implies a large number of job seekers per one registered vacant job, i.e. 10 for Hungary, 12 for Poland, and 7 for the Czech Republic. An enormous change of unemployment stock during the years 2000–2008 can be noticed in Poland – the unemployment rate fell from 20% to 7%. In Hungary and the Czech Republic, this indicator was never above 12%. Since 2009, unemployment rates started rising slowly in all of the countries and the values of the indicator caught up with one another. The average unemployment rates were 13.6% for Poland, 8.1% for Hungary, and 6.8 for the Czech Republic. Post-transition economies are known for low labour productivity, which is the consequence of, inter alia, the previous totalitarian system with its centrally planned economy. However, a dynamic rise of the indicator can be noticed during the last decade. Figure 4 plots labour productivity in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary as an average per ...
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Citations
... The higher the tightness, the more vacancies come to the unemployed and the probability of finding work rises, but the worker-job mismatch is also higher. On the contrary, the lower the tightness, the probability of finding a job decreases (Wozniak 2015). The selected time span captures the complete business cycle and allows assessing the forecasting performance of the model in the presence of large fluctuation of data. ...
Interdependencies among neighboring regions appear to be important in forming the shape of local labor markets. Nevertheless, only a few studies exist which have applied spatial models to forecast over small spatial units such as cities, districts or counties. The majority of predictions are developed with quarterly or yearly time series for a country or at regional level. The paper presents the above phenomena and deals with the problem of simultaneous forecasting of the unemployment rate over 35 poviats (districts and cities) in one of the Polish provinces. Two extremely different models with spatial dependencies were developed and estimated in this paper: the Spatial Vector Autoregressions (SpVAR) and the Spatial Artificial Neural Network (SpANN). The 13-month out-of-sample forecast is based on high frequency, raw, monthly panel data extracted from 31 local labor offices. The procedure worked out here allows comparing the forecasting performance of spatial models with their non-spatial and seasonal equivalents. The inclusion of a spatial component into the models significantly improves the accuracy of forecasts; however, the overall performance of SpVAR is 30% better than SpANN.
... Kompleksowe badania tego typu dla polskiej polityki rynku pracy można policzyć na palcach jednej ręki (Woźniak 2015b). Ewaluacje programów dla bezrobotnych, prowadzone przez publiczne służby zatrudnienia w Polsce, uznać należy za wybiórcze i przestarzałe (Kryńska 2009, Maksim, Wiśniewski 2012, Woźniak 2015a, gdyż mierzą one tylko efekty brutto programów rynku pracy. Tego typu szacunki opierają się na porównaniu liczby uczestników programu z liczbą osób podejmujących zatrudnienie po zakończeniu działań aktywizacyjnych. ...
... 2010, Crepon i in. 2012, Woźniak 2015a. ...
A large dynamics of the economy can be observed nowadays. New challenges which were absent at the end of XX century are now spreading. These forces touch labor markets with particular impact and result in the emergence of new professions, decline of the traditional workstyle and transfer of professional activities into the virtual zone. Under such condition creating labor market policy become a vital but challenging issue for countries and their governments. The key point is matching the type of intervention to the realms of the labor market. However, labor market policy comes with several side effects, which are difficult to identify and measure. Investigation of policies side-effects may lead to optimization of funds allocation and increase the well-being of the society. Paper underlines this problem, which still needs further research in the Polish socio-economic sciences. Some key results of research concerning labor market policy were also discussed briefly in the paper.
... There are also some problematic parameters whose exact value is unknown (e.g. shock frequency estimates provide different results, as shown in Wozniak 2015). In these cases, the parameters will be calibrated according to the developed calibration criteria and statistical methods. ...
In this paper, an agent-based search and matching (ABSAM) model of a local labor market with heterogeneous agents and an on-the-job search is developed, i.e. job seekers who vary in unemployment duration, skills levels and preferences compete for vacancies which differ for skills demands and the sector of the economy. Job placement agencies help unemployed persons find appropriate job vacancies by improving their search effectiveness and by sharing job advertisements. These agents cooperate in an artificial labor market where the key economic conditions are imposed. The interactions between the participants are drawn directly from labor market search theory. The main research task was to measure the direct and indirect impacts of labor market policies on labor market outcomes. The global parameters of the ABSAM model were calibrated with the Latin hypercube sampling technique for one of the largest urban areas in Poland. To study the impact of parameters on model output, two global sensitivity analysis methods were used, i.e. Morris screening and Sobol indices. The results show that the job placement agencies' services, as well as minimum wage and unemployment benefits, considerably interact with and influence unemployment and long-term unemployment ratios, wage levels, duration of periods of unemployment, skills demand, and worker turnover. Moreover, strong indirect effects were detected, e.g. programs aimed at one group of job seekers affected other job seekers and the whole economy. This impacts are sometimes positive and sometimes negative. JEL C63 C69 J48 J63 J64
