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This study carried out a comparative analysis of the changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, TC track, and TC intensity focusing on TCs that affected the Korean peninsula (KP) according to three evolutionary patterns (prolonged, abrupt and symmetric-decay) of the abnormal sea surface temperature in the Central-Pacific (CP) region. As a result of...
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... KRB that caused considerable damage due to summer TCs. South Korea has a total of 113 sub- watersheds (Han River basins: 30, Nakdong River basins: 33, Geum River basins: 21, Sumjin River basins: 15, and Yeongsan River basins: 14) centered around Korea's five major river basins (Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, Sumjin River, Yeongsang River) (Fig. 1). The total basin area of the five largest rivers reaches is 106,552 km 2 . The Han River basin (41,405 km 2 ) and Nakdong River basin (17,537 km 2 ) occupy more than 55 % of the entire KRBs, followed in order by the Geumg River basin (17,537 km 2 , 16.5 % of entire river basin areas in South Korea), Sumjin River basin (8,299 km 2 , 7.8 ...
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... and genesis position of the TCs affecting the KP during the summer season depending on the evolution pattern of the CP El Niño. The changes occur in the position of the TC genesis depending on each evolution pat- tern. First, in the prolonged-decaying (Case 1) years, the area where the TCs occur is more easterly than the other two CP patterns (Fig. 4a, average TC genesis: 15.8N, 140E). From June to September, when TCs form, the SST is lower than in an average year. On the other hand, the pattern over 26.5 °C, which is warm enough to generate TCs, is located from the eastern sea of the Philippines to the center of northwestern Pacific. The analysis shows that the strength of the wind from the southeast of the ...
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... (Case 2) years, warm SST and negative wind speed anomalies are formed around the south and center of the northwestern Pacific and the Philip- pines, and the southeastern sea of Taiwan has a higher relative humidity than in the average year (Fig. 5b). The analysis showed that the location where the TCs generally occur is mostly in the northeast (Fig. 4a, average TC genesis: 21.9N, 134.8E), and the place where the TCs are formed is close to the KP. Therefore, this environment is unlikely to generate strong TCs (Fig. 6, mean central pressure: 983.88 hPa). In addition, the number of TCs moving to the KP tend to decrease (Fig. ...
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... In addition, global warming has caused changes in the air temperatures, ocean heat content, and sea levels; these changes might strengthen TCs over the Pacific Rim countries and exacerbate the damage induced by these storms. Assessments of the climate risks and TC-induced extremes in China are crucial (Knutson et al., 2010;Kim and Jain, 2011;Kim et al., 2012;Ying et al., 2012;Son et al., 2014). To better assess the impacts of TCs on human society, it is necessary to study the changes in the TC activity and spatiotemporal characteristics of TC-induced precipitation in China. ...
Tropical cyclones (TCs) influence extreme rainfall events. However, changes in TCs caused by their poleward migration and subsequent impacts on extreme rainfall are yet to be adequately explored. In this study, the long‐term trends of TCs and typological characteristics of TC‐induced rainfall were analysed. Daily rainfall data were obtained from 759 Chinese stations and TC data were obtained in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) regions from 1961 to 2017. From May to October of each year, the TC‐induced rainfall was separated from the total rainfall data and spatiotemporal distribution patterns of TC‐induced rainfall were identified. The amount and frequency of TC‐induced rainfall decrease from the coastal inland. The TCs migrate northward, leading to a decrease (increase) in their activities south (north) of 20°N, respectively. In the South China Sea, TC activity is decreasing. The number of TC landfall events is decreasing (increasing) in the Pearl River basin (Southeast River basin). Furthermore, nonstationary increasing trends in the Pearl River and Southeast basins account for 41.7 and 62.9%, respectively, whereas the decreasing trends account for 30.6 and 14.3%, respectively. The Southeast River basin may face more TC‐induced extreme rainfall in the future. The results can provide information for water resource management and flood disaster warning systems in China, especially in the southeast.
... Since the 2000s, new forms of El Niño have appeared more frequently in the central Pacific [17,18]. However, little is yet known about the causes of these new types of El Niño, some of which have been reported to have a noticeable effect on the supply of warm seasonal freshwater and hydrological extremes in Pacific Rim countries [5,[19][20][21][22]. Research over the past two decades has identified a distinct climate anomaly in the Indian Ocean, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [23][24][25][26]. ...
This study analyzed the sensitivity of rainfall patterns in South China and the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) using statistical simulations of observational data. Quantitative changes in rainfall patterns over the ICP were examined for both wet and dry seasons to identify hotspots sensitive to ocean warming in the Indo-Pacific sector. The rainfall variability was amplified by combined and/or independent effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the years of El Niño and a positive phase of the IOD, rainfall is less than usual in Thailand, Cambodia, southern Laos, and Vietnam. Conversely, during the years of La Niña and a negative phase of the IOD, rainfall throughout the ICP is above normal, except in parts of central Laos, northern Vietnam, and South China. This study also simulated the change of ICP rainfall in the wet and dry seasons with intentional IOD changes and verified IOD-sensitive hotspots through quantitative analysis. The results of this study provide a clear understanding both of the sensitivity of regional precipitation to the IOD and of the potential future impact of statistical changes regarding the IOD in terms of understanding regional impacts associated with precipitation in changing climates.
... Climate projections indicate that future climate changes will probably not be uniform, and regional variations in precipitation and warming temperatures will exacerbate the potential for drought incidence and severity (Trenberth et al., 2014;Lee et al., 2018). Furthermore, natural climatic variability, for example stemming from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can amplify hydroclimatic extremes (Mosley, 2015;Son et al., 2014;Kim et al., 2016). Consequently, faced with water shortages, the quantification of risks and the development of countermeasures to protect the integrity between human and environmental systems are needed. ...
... In a warming climate, atmospheric conditions are likely to favor intensification of typhoon activity (Kim and Jain, 2011;Kim et al., 2012bKim et al., , 2016bKim et al., , 2017Moon and Kwon, 2012;Son et al., 2014). Also, as the points of typhoon genesis migrate northward compared to those of the past typhoons, the probability of landfall over the Korean peninsula is likely to increase as a result (Kim and Jain 2011;Moon and Kwon, 2012;Choi et al., 2013Choi et al., , 2018Parket al., 2014). ...
East Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, is exposed to the typhoon-related risk, especially in the form of flooding. The aim of this study was to determine the hydrologic variability characteristics of the Soyang River Dam—a representative multipurpose dam in the Korean Han River basin—with a particular focus on the quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of daily inflow into the dam basin and the related typhoon-impacts. Although the frequency of typhoons occurring in the western North Pacific Ocean region does not indicate any distinct increases, typhoons passing the domain of the Korean Peninsula change the summer flow of the Soyang River Dam significantly. Analysis results suggest that 22.6% of the summer flow in the Soyang River Dam can be attributed to typhoons. Furthermore, during the periods characterized by the transition from El Niño to La Niña, typhoons exert a large influence on the hydrologic regime. The frequency of typhoon occurrence is highly correlated to the typhoon-induced flow, and the occurrence date of peak flows when typhoons strike was determined to be significantly delayed compared to that of the average years (1974–2015). In addition, low-flow metrics show downward trends, however, there is no distinct correlation with the statistical data of typhoons. The results from this study offer baseline information for mid- and long-term plans that cope with natural disasters or the supply of water resources for humans and natural systems according to the seasonal flow patterns of basins. The links to typhoons signify the critical importance of integrative analyses that consider hydrologic and meteorological phenomena. © 2019 International Association for Hydro-environment Engineering and Research, Asia Pacific Division
... To identify these two types of El Niño, several indices have been proposed (Table 1). In recent studies, equatorial Pacific warming events have been separated into three subclasses based on the evolution of the maximum SSTA distribution (Yu and Kim 2013;Son et al. 2014;Kim et al. 2016;Song et al. 2016a). In addition to the EP and CP El Niño, a mixed El Niño type is included that has both EP and CP characters (Yu and Kim 2013;Song et al. 2016a). ...
El Niño has distinctive oceanic and atmospheric signatures that have different influences on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study compares TC activity over the WNP basin among strong Central-Pacific (CP), mixed CP, and strong Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño. Results suggest that TC activity with strong intensity and long lifespan occurred more frequently during strong (i.e. strong EP and strong CP) El Niño years than during mixed-CP El Niño years. This is attributed primarily to a combined modulation of the amplitude and duration of warm sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Pacific, and variations in large-scale environmental conditions; i.e. eddy kinetic energy, omega, relative humidity, and vertical wind shear (VWS). During CP (i.e. strong CP and mixed CP) El Niño events, enhanced TC genesis is observed over a large part of the WNP. During strong-CP El Niño events, more TCs are generated east of 140°E in the southwestern WNP, whereas more TCs are generated west of 140°E during mixed-CP El Niño events. This is due to a reduced magnitude of VWS and a westward shift in warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific. When an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Indo-China Peninsula is combined with a westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, TCs heading northward are associated with strong mean winds during strong El Niño events, resulting primarily from enhanced eddy kinetic energy, omega, and relative humidity, and weak VWS. Overall, TC activity during the three types of El Niño shows distinct generation locations, evolution patterns, and intensities, and the evolving spatial patterns of SSTA play an important role in modulating TC activity.
... (Son et al., 2013). 과거 국내⋅외 많은 연구자와 관찰자들에 의해 태풍 활동 특성에 대한 연구가 진행되었음에도 불구하고, 태풍 활동 특성에 대한 객관적인 결과에 대해선 아직까지 논란이 되고 있는 실정이다. ...
... However, it is very difficult to establish one optimum model for landslide susceptibility mapping because each SDM has different properties, and their reliability differs due to combinations of variables. In particular, ensemble methods have been employed in remote sensing classification (Clinton et al. 2015;Wang et al. 2016a) and species distribution modeling has been used to minimize the limitations of a single model (Thuiller et al. 2009) and forecast future climate conditions (Krishnamurti et al. 2000;Riebau and Fox 2005;Son et al. 2014;Kovalchuk et al. 2017). ...
Landslides are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters, and damage due to landslides has been increasing in certain regions of the world because of increased precipitation. Policy decision makers require reliable information that can be used to establish spatial adaptation plans to protect people from landslide hazards. Researchers presently identify areas susceptible to landslides using various spatial distribution models. However, such data are associated with a high amount of uncertainty. This study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty of several spatial distribution models and identifying the effectiveness of various ensemble methods that can be used to provide reliable information to support policy decisions. The area of study was Inje-gun, Republic of Korea. Ten models were selected to assess landslide susceptibility. Moreover, five ensemble methods were selected for the aggregated results of the 10 models. The uncertainty was quantified using the coefficient of variation and the uncertainty map we developed revealed areas with strongly differing values among single models. A matrix map was created using an ensemble map and a coefficient of variation map. Using matrix analysis, we identified the areas that are most susceptible to landslides according to the ensemble model with a low uncertainty. Thus, the ensemble model can be a useful tool for supporting decision makers. The framework of this study can also be employed to support the establishment of landslide adaptation plans in other areas of the Republic of Korea and in other countries.
... The new type of El Niño, known as warm pool (WP) El Niño, is associated with Central Pacific sea surface temperatures that are abnormally high in comparison to the western and eastern regions of the Pacific sea. The explicit cause of WP El Niño occurrence has yet to be determined [17][18][19], though the influence of El Niño on WNP TCs has been extensively investigated [2,[20][21][22][23][24][25]. Relatively little research has been conducted to quantify the impacts of CT/WP El Niño on Korea-affected TC activities or regional variability in TC-induced precipitation over the Korean peninsula. ...
We analyzed typhoon activities such as tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position, movement routes and central pressure of typhoons, and changes in local patterns of rainfall stemming from TCs passing through the Korean domain. The results showed a remarkable difference in changes in typhoons that affect the Korean Peninsula (KP) during cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño years. In particular, TCs that move through the ocean off Korea and the Kuroshio during WP El Niño years are relatively stronger than TCs formed during CT El Niño years. Furthermore, analysis of large-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics showed better conditions for TC development and strengthening during WP El Niño years. TC-induced summer rainfall over major Korean river basins decreased from normal years during CT El Niño years (−3.94%) and increased over normal years during WP El Niño years (+33.92%). The results of this diagnostic study rely on short-term observations and relatively little data, but they suggest that CT/WP El Niño cycles influence TC activities and rainfall across the KP. The findings are important for reducing TC damage and ensuring a proper response to climate change in coupled human-environmental systems.
... Typhoon Haiyan resulted in great losses to life and property and up to 6100 deaths and 27,000 injuries were reported; property losses were estimated to have reached 12.9 billion USD (Dash et al., 2014). Along with the acceleration of climate change, typhoons generated in the North Pacific are expected to grow even stronger, and northern locations such as the Korean Peninsula (KP) may be exposed to potential dangers from super typhoons like Haiyan (Kim and Jain, 2011;Kim et al., 2012;Li et al., 2012;Son et al., 2014). ...
... Because global warming has caused changes in air temperatures, ocean heat content, and sea levels, and these changes might strengthen TCs around the KP and exacerbate the damage that these storms can have, there is an urgent need in this region for typhoon-related research. Data from such studies are essential for updating hazard mitigation plans for TCs and improving community resilience measures to cope with the corresponding damage (Kim et al., 2012;Son et al., 2014). In this study, we aim (1) to build objective and quantitative statistical datasets about KP-affected typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, (2) to use these data to analyze the characteristics of typhoon activity (e.g., TC genesis location, TC path, recurving position, and intensity) and the accompanying spatiotemporal changes in rainfall. ...
... Typhoons are generated on the West Pacific and then move to East Asia where they often make landfall and are accompanied by strong winds and heavy rain. These typhoons can result in great losses of life and they frequently cause significant economic damages (Kim and Jain, 2011;Kim et al., 2012;Son et al., 2014). In order to help communities plan for natural disasters and secure their water resources, it is very important to conduct research into localized heavy rains and extreme events such as those caused by typhoons (Chan and Xu, 2009;Kim and Jain, 2011). ...
Global warming has caused changes in air temperatures, ocean heat content, and sea levels, and these changes might strengthen tropical cyclones (TCs) around the Korean Peninsula and exacerbate the damage that these storms can have on both coastal and inland communities. Therefore, there is an urgent need in this region to update hazard mitigation plans for TCs and improve community resilience measures to cope with the corresponding damage. In accordance with such efforts, this study aims to build quantitative statistical datasets about typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean that approach the Korean Peninsula and use these data to analyze the characteristics of typhoon activity (e.g., TC genesis location, TC path, recurving position, and intensity) and the accompanying spatio-temporal changes in rainfall. During 1966 to 2009, significant changes in the timing, paths, and frequencies of strong summer typhoons were observed along with increases in the intensity of summer typhoon rainfall over portions of the Han River basin and the Nakdong River basin. We hope that these findings will provide foundational information for disaster prevention efforts and assist natural resource managers to protect river basins and secure water resources.
... (Kim and Jain, 2011;Oh et al., 2011;Son et al., 2013). 또한, 최근 2013년 11월에 발생한 태풍등급을 넘어 서는 강력한 태풍 하이옌이 필리핀에 상륙하면서 사망자 6,100여명, 실종자 약 1,780명, 100만 가구의 피해가 발생하 였다. ...
Strong winds and heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones (TCs) that occur in the Northwestern Pacific cause significant human and material damage to the Korean peninsula and East Asia. Hence, it is important to establish early warning systems and conduct preparedness activities in advance of a TC. This study suggests a technique to extract the value of uniform TC-induced rainfall considering the TC track and TC size. To validate our technique, we compare it to existing TC rainfall techniques using the spatial domain. To determine the TC size required for extracting TC-induced rainfall, this research analyzed the mean of TC-induced rainfall by TC size (1973-2012). As a result of this analysis, the maximum amount of mean of TC-induced rainfall was found for a TC with a radius of 700 km. Other techniques have limitations which this new technique addresses; it can extract TC-induced rainfall in each administrative area and minimize systematic biases of other extraction methods. The result of this study can be utilized in the preparation of rainfall forecasts, designing hydraulic structures, and predicting landslide and debris flows using TC-induced rainfall and downpours.
