Figure 1 - uploaded by Peter D. Bromirski
Content may be subject to copyright.
Source publication
We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S....
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... proposed sea level rise vulnerability assessment framework for DoD installations is shown in Figure 1. The framework is quite general, and is consistent with typical systematic planning strategies for risk assessment frameworks that have been applied to human health and ecological risk assessment [33,34], while building on the key elements of traditional vulnerability assessment frameworks. ...
Context 2
... framework is structured around six primary components including: problem formulation and scoping; conceptual model development; defining and validating data and modeling requirements; conducting the risk assessment; risk communication; and risk management. Below, we outline the common components of the vulnerability assessment framework shown in Figure 1 up to the execution of the risk assessment, but excluding the risk communication and risk management components for the sake of brevity. ...
Similar publications
The Yellow River, north-central China, and comparative rivers of the western United States, the Rio Grande and the Colorado River, derive much of their flows from melting snow at high elevations, but derive most of their sediment loads from semiarid central parts of the basins. The three rivers are regulated by large reservoirs that store water and...
During 9th–16th September 2013, the Front Range region of Colorado experienced heavy rainfall that resulted in severe flooding. Precipitation totals for the event exceeded 450 mm, damages to public and private properties were estimated to be over $ 2 billion, and nine lives were lost. This study analyzes the characteristics of precipitable water (P...
During 9–16 September 2013, the Front Range region of Colorado experienced
heavy rainfall that resulted in severe flooding. Precipitation totals for the
event exceeded 450 mm, damages to public and private properties were
estimated to be over USD 2 billion, and nine lives were lost. This study
analyzes the characteristics of precipitable water (PW)...
Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow atmospheric water vapor corridors, can contribute substantially to winter precipitation in the semiarid Southwest U.S., where natural ecosystems and humans compete for over-allocated water resources. We investigate the hydrologic impacts of 122 ARs that occurred in the Salt and Verde River basins in northeastern Ari...
[1] Flash flood hydrographs were examined using water stable isotopes (deuterium and oxygen) and a plug-flow lumped catchment model to assess the origin and routing processes of flood water in a semiarid basin in southwestern United States. Precipitation and stream water were sampled during storm and flood conditions at high and low elevations. Iso...
Citations
... More frequent accelerated flooding at Hampton Roads naval bases has reportedly already started disrupting day-to-day operations and road access to the bases (VanDervort 2020). Rising sea levels may also lead to more accidents or fatalities at coastal federal facilities (Chadwick et al. 2011). This augmented risk is evident in Virginia's heightened level of hurricane-related Natech disasters relative to other states (Sengul et al. 2012). ...
Coastal flooding is increasing with rising sea levels, resulting in cascading impacts on ecological and human systems. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies causing the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech disasters is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing accelerated sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of a flood-induced Natech disaster to assess the impact on coastal populations and ecosystems. The flood risks were determined using a 100-year flood plain and an intermediate climate projection. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the flood risk with proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and Superfund sites. The findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of African American residents, people in poverty, and those without a vehicle experience a significantly higher risk of exposure to a Natech disaster than those living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities.
... The 10 yr return-period total water level was estimated from a 100 yr prediction of future sea level using joint probability statistics for tide, non-tide residual (i.e. storm surge and other sea level enhancements such as El Niño), wave runup, and monthly extreme value analysis (Chadwick et al., 2011). The closure depth was estimated from the method of Hallermeier (1978Hallermeier ( , 1981 using the 10 yr return-period significant wave height and associated wave period from the 100 yr sea level predictions. ...
Airborne LiDAR collected during the period 1998–2010 and differential GPS surveys conducted over 2008–2013 show recent reactivation and movement of a large deep-seated coastal landslide at San Onofre State Beach, San Diego County, California. The overall slide complex extends about 700 m alongshore, 150 m inland, and an unknown distance offshore. Differencing digital elevation models and tracking field monuments (benchmarks) provide time series of quantitative topographic landslide changes and new insight in to the slide motion sequences and mechanics. The slide contains several distinct primary and secondary regions moving and deforming at different rates. Primary slide motion includes slow seaward translational motion, rotational slipping, and upward offshore movement. Secondary processes of basal wave erosion and new inland cliffline failures contribute to primary landslide destabilization. The landslide exhibits lithologic and structural controls, is driven by a combination of marine and subaerial processes, influences local beach morphology, and deviates from typical southern California coastal cliff processes which mostly involve shallow landslides and topples. Large-scale, cross-shore slide rotation has recently created new nearshore reefs. Eroded cliff sediments provide a local beach sand source and probably influence local nearshore ecosystems. All known time periods of major historical landslide activity were preceded by elevated seasonal rainfall and analysis suggests elevated rainfall generated primary slide motion as opposed to wave action. As of spring 2013, landslide activity has slowed, but continued positive feedbacks including toe removal by wave activity suggest that future landsliding will probably threaten coastal infrastructure.
... The National Research Council (NRC 1987) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE 2009) use 1986, but USACE (2011) uses 1992. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2008) and Rahmstorf (2007) projections start in 1990, whereas Cayan et al. (2008 and Chadwick et al. (2011Chadwick et al. ( ) use 2000 For MSLR considerations in the abstract, it is sufficient to specify a start year and some rise trajectory with an end point value (say, 1.0 m by 2100). However, if specific geodetically referenced future MSLR scenario values are needed to quantify actual future sea level relative to the ground, these general specifications are inadequate. ...
... While not affecting the procedure proposed herein, these scenario curves are nevertheless illustrative of the range of MSLRs that may occur. They are instructive and useful for assessing potential damages assuming that future MSLR follows the assumed scenarios (Chadwick et al. 2011). ...
A method is presented to consistently tie future mean sea level rise (MSLR) scenario projections to local geodetic and tidal datums. This extends the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer (USACE) guidance for incorporating the effects of future MSLR into coastal projects. While USACE relies on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 19-year National Tidal Datum Epoch (NTDE) for its datum relationships, the approach proposed herein generalizes this guidance by choosing the appropriate 19-year epoch centered onthe start year of the MSLR scenario under consideration. The procedure takes into account the local annual sea level variability, which confounds the matching to any given single year while generalizing and preserving the 19-year averaging long used by NOAA to calculate the NTDE. Examples of the MSLR scenario matching procedure are given using actual data and projections for La Jolla, California, and Sewells Point (Hampton Roads), Virginia.
Climate change is shifting both the built and natural environments rapidly across the
globe (Church & White 2006; Grant, 2017; IPCC 2007; National Research Council 2012;
Wehner et al., 2018; Wuebbles et al., 2017; Wuebbles, 2018). Climate change poses new and
emerging challenges for the U.S. Military in all branches and sectors; thus, it is vital to
implement adaptation measures to combat the adverse effects on a branch wide basis (Brzoska, 2015; Holloway et al., 2015; Gunn, 2017; Goldstein and Greenberg, 2018). Moreover, a granular understanding of the specific impacts associated with each military installation, apparatus, command/personnel, and military property is necessary to implement the appropriate adaptation measure. Anthropogenic climate change poses many risks for the U.S. Military, including sea-level rise, extreme weather events, shoreline erosion, increased frequency and severity of storm surges, coastal flooding, shifting ecological conditions, changing marine and animal species that frequent a particular coastal area, threatened infrastructure, threatened operations, and climate change threaten the United States military operational readiness (Barnett, 2003; Beately, 2009; Hanak, 2012; Melillo, 2014; McGuire, 2013; Brzoska, 2015; Holloway et al., 2015; Gunn, 2017; Goldstein and Greenberg, 2018).
