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Investments and their determinants in the Tunisian economy
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The paper investigates the determinants of investments in Tunisia using annual data over the period of 1961-2011. The importance of this study comes from the necessity to determine important factors influencing domestic investments in Tunisia. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling is employed to investigate the impact of the gross domes...
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... The ARDL bounds testing model has become prevalent due to its various advantages over traditional cointegration analysis. It also eliminates the problems related to omitted variables and autocorrelation by predicting the short-and long-run components of the model concurrently (Haug and Ucal 2019;Hamuda et al. 2013;Srinivasan et al. 2012). ARDL analysis does not require all series to be stationary at the same level, and ARDL testing requires that the variables are not stationary at I(2) and above (Alam and Adil 2019;Churchill et al. 2019;Jalil and Feridun 2011). ...
Abstract
Increasing carbon emissions (CO2) due to factors such as energy consumption (enco), industrialization, increase in world population, and decrease in green areas with the industrial revolution is one of the main causes of both climate change and global warming. In this context, due to the increasing commercial activities in Turkiye, the rapid growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the logistics sector alert the government. However, there is a lack of standard measures for evaluating GHG emissions generated from freight transport operations. To improve this situation, Turkiye’s policymakers need to evaluate GHG emissions for energy saving and pollution reduction. This background leads us to examine the GHG emission trajectories and features of Turkiye’s freight transport patterns in the last three decades. In this context, it is aimed to determine the impacts of financial development (findev), GDP per capita, energy consumption, and amount of freight carried by rail and road on CO2 emissions within the framework of 1990–2021 time-series data for Turkiye. By doing so, the ARDL bound testing cointegration test is employed and observes that independent variables have similar and different effects on CO2 emissions. Energy consumption, findev, and per capita income variables have a positive effect on CO2 emissions in Turkiye. According to these results, it is seen that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is valid in Turkiye. However, the effect of rail and road freight transport (FT) on CO2 emissions is negative. The unexpected finding is related to road FT. The amount of freight transported by road has a decreasing effect on CO2 emissions in Turkiye. This paradoxical situation in Turkiye may be due to the developments in the transportation infrastructure, which has enabled the convergence of space and time in recent years, young and modern vehicle fleets, and the efficiency provided through logistics companies. The findings will assist in formulating specific and effective policies for Turkiye’s transport sector.
... the ARDL method does not estimate the system of equations like the Johansen and Granger methods do, but it evaluates a single equation to identify the short-run and long-term relationships simultaneously; (3) the regressors can include different optimal lags(Hamuda, Šuliková, Gazda, & Horváth, 2013); (4) time series variables can be stationary at I(0) and I(1) or a mix. In addition, applying the ARDL technique provides unbiased estimates of the long-run models(Harris & Sollis, 2003). ...
The article proposes a method to broach the complication and mixture of the triangular causal nexus among gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) in Thua Thien Hue (TTH) province that has not yet been studied. FDI into TTH province fluctuates unpredictably, so the study investigates the causal relationship between the triangular variables over the whole period (1995–2019) and the shortened period (2003–2019). The ARDL model is the most optimal choice due to the heterogeneity of stationary characteristics and short time series data. The shortened period has established more statistically significant short- and long-term Granger causal relationships, excluding the economic crisis effect. The Granger causality test only underlined a unidirectional short-term relationship running from FTA to FDI in the shortened period. Policies for economic development in TTH province need to strengthen the coordination between foreign investment and tourism so that all economic sectors can jointly create spillover effects on economic growth.
... Next, as annual data series will be used in this analysis, the ARDL level relation model will be used to estimate long-run relationships with a maximum lag value of two. The recommended maximum lag length by Pesaran and Shin (1999) was two for annual data (Hamuda et al., 2013). Meanwhile, the optimal lag value is determined using information criteria, and the ARDL level model's general equation is constructed as follows: ...
An increase in the crime rate may jeopardize a country’s development and economic growth. Thus, understanding the relationship between crime and a few determinants is ,crucial in sustaining the economic growth in Malaysia. The four determinants used in this research are economic growth, population, education level, and inflation rate. The data covers the period from 1984 to 2019, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approaches were used in this research. The findings showed that only the population has a significant positive impact on crime rates for long-term and short-term relationships. Meanwhile, economic growth and education level have a significant long-term positive effect on the crime rate. On the other hand, the inflation rate did not significantly impact the crime rate in long-term and short-term relationships. Interestingly, it was found in the findings that the crime rate and population showed a bidirectional causal relationship indicating that the past population values are useful for a better prediction of the current crime rate and vice versa. Thus, the Malaysian government should encourage people to cooperate with the enforcement authorities to deter crime for future environmental safety effectively
... This is due to the model's ability to simultaneously predict long-and shortterm parameters to avoid problems caused by non-stationary time series data. By estimating the shortand long-term components of the model simultaneously, neglected variables and autocorrelation problems are eliminated (Hamuda et al. 2013;Haug and Ucal 2019;Srinivasan, Kumar, and Ganesh 2012). Contrary to other cointegration approaches, such as Johansen and Juselius, Notably, ARDL analysis does not require all variables to be stationary at the same level, but it is also important to verify that none of the variables should be more than stationary (Alam and Adil 2019). ...
Herein, factors affecting domestic bank loans to the private sector are determined within the context of ten developing countries. The relationship between bank loans to the private sector and the gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, exchange rates, and terrorist incidents is investigated using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test and cointegration regression models. According to the results obtained from the models developed by applying annual data from 1970–2018, a positive relationship between domestic bank loans to the private sector, which is the endogenous variable, and the GDP, and a negative relationship with interest rates, terrorist incidents, and exchange rates are observed. Particularly in countries where terrorism is intense, investors giving up or postponing investments owing to the deterioration of the investment climate decreases loans to the private sector. Accordingly, terrorism should be considered and managed as an operational risk factor in the banking sector. We also find empirical evidence that capital control practices in some countries decrease bank loans to the private sector.
... The data used for the study is panel data from 63 Vietnamese provinces between 2000 and 2020. The inquiry method is PMG (Pool Mean Group) regression for economic growth (GDP) after testing the stationarity of the variables that meet the PMG regression condition as suggested by Pesaran et al. (1996) and Hamuda et al. (2013). The results show that: factors such as labor and trade openness have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term. ...
... That means the table data did not integrate with I(1) or I(0). According to Pesaran et al. (1996) and Hamuda et al. (2013), when the variables in the model do not have the same level of linkage -either I(1) or I(0), applying the PMG procedure is appropriate for this study. ...
The impact of investment on economic growth has been studied by many authors around the world with different times and research methods. Therefore, there are conflicting opinions about the impact of investment on economic growth. To contribute empirical evidence, the objective of this study is to assess the impact of investment sources such as public investment, private investment, and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Vietnam in the short-run and long-run. The data used for the study is panel data from 63 Vietnamese provinces between 2000 and 2020. The inquiry method is PMG (Pool Mean Group) regression for economic growth (GDP) after testing the stationarity of the variables that meet the PMG regression condition as suggested by Pesaran et al. (1996) and Hamuda et al. (2013). The results show that: factors such as labor and trade openness have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term. In the long run, public investment has a negative effect on economic growth, while domestic private investment, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and labor have positive effects on economic growth. Labour contributes the most, followed by trade openness, foreign direct investment, and domestic private investment. Finally, the study provides policy implications for the Government of Vietnam.
... This model gives us the possibility to estimate simultaneously the short and long-term parameters of the tested variables, moreover, and contrary to the other models, the ARDL approach does not require that the series be integrated in the same order, i.e. this approach allows estimating variables with a different integration level I (0) and I (1). Thus, in the case of small samples, this approach is more efficient and gives more meaningful results in determining the cointegration relationship [24]. This equation is written according to the ARDL model in the following form: ...
The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of government spending on agricultural growth in Mali using data from 2000 to 2019. The lagged autoregressive model (ARDL) was used to perform the estimation. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the data from the World Bank database. Several specification tests were performed to confirm the validity of the chosen model. The results of this study show that the public expenditures have positive and significant effects on agricultural growth, except for agricultural expenditures that have negative effects. Similarly, the agricultural employability rate and fertilizer consumption also have negative effects. This implies that the government needs to review its resource allocation policy in all sectors, including the agricultural sector.
... In order to estimate regression model, this study use ARDL model -Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Pesaran et al., 2001) to analysis the multivariate time series. According to Hamuda et al. (2013), ARDL model has advantages over other cointegrating models, especially in the case of small sample. Therefore, secondary data is collected with small sample size, the author use ARDL estimation to replace other cointegration methods in determining the relationship between FDI and growth both in the short and long term. ...
This study aims to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth at the provincial level by using time-series data in Binh Dinh from 1997 to 2019. We applied the quantitative approaches Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) in the model, which includes economic growth, real foreign direct investment capital, ratio of trained workers, and infrastructure. The results show that all these variables are stationary at the first difference. In ARDL analysis, we found that the economic growth positively affects FDI attraction. However, there is no evidence of the effect of FDI on economic growth in the condition of low capital implemented. Moreover, findings also show that the impact of FDI on economic growth is influenced by two factors: infrastructure and human capital. The lack of human capital, which is trained personnel and infrastructure, is the main barrier hindering and inhibiting FDI's contribution to local economic growth. In order to improve the efficiency of FDI on economic growth in the future, it is suggested that the Binh Dinh government should have proper policies in terms of the infrastructure, the human capital investment. They would allow Binh Dinh to enhance the capital absorptive capacity and capital efficiency. JEL Classification Code: F23, O47, E22, C32 of the FDI sector to the local economy is still a subject not settled (Tien et al., 2020); the evidence on the relationship between FDI and economic growth is still controversial and inconsistent among the existing studies, which really causes difficulty for managers to make decisions on policies to attract FDI and promote economic growth. In particular, many studies show that the effect of FDI on economic growth depends on the local FDI attraction as well as the conditions and capacity of absorbing FDI in each host locality. While studies in Vietnam today mostly evaluate this relationship from an investment perspective, very little research is concerned about the role of conditional factor in this relationship. Most studies about this interest are at the national level; it is very limited at the local level. Therefore, this study focuses on the relationship between FDI and full economic growth in both sides (investment capital and absorption capacity) in a specific locality, which is the novel contribution of this research. Binh Dinh is one of the five provinces in the key economic region in Central Vietnam, with a favorable geographical location and many advantageous factors to attract investment. In recent years, along with the general development trend of Vietnam, Binh Dinh has deployed many efforts to attract
... The study also reported a significant negative impact of debt servicing on the private sector investment. Hamuda et al. (2013) applied the ARDL technique on time series data for the period 1961-2011 for the Tunisian economy and had drawn the conclusion that the monetary base of the country had a strong association with domestic investment. Sharafat (2013) utilized time series data over the period 1972-2011 to examine the factors affecting longrun investment function in Pakistan. ...
Private investment has a significant relation with the economic growth of the country. It plays an important role in reduction of unemployment and poverty by promoting efficiency and competition among the firms. This study is an attempt to investigate the determinants of private investment in Pakistan. For this purpose, time-series data is utilized for the period 1974-2013. The ARDL (Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag) modeling technique of co-integration was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of private investment in Pakistan. Empirical findings of this study indicated that in the short-run private investment in Pakistan is determined by the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and domestic savings. While in the long run it is determined by the official exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, domestic savings, trade openness, and interest rate. The results also revealed that in the case of Pakistan different political regimes (democratic, non-democratic) have no significance in the determination of private investment. Stability tests of CUSUM and (CUSUMSQ) (Cumulative Sum Control Chart) were performed in this study. These tests indicated a stable, long run as well as short-run structural stability of the model.
... Modelin kısa ve uzun dönem bileşenlerini aynı anda tahmin ederek ihmal edilmiş değişken ve otokorelasyon ile ilgili sorunları giderir (Haug ve Ucal, 2019;Srinivasan vd. 2012;Hamuda, 2013). Bir eşbütünleşme vektörü olduğunda, Johansen ve Juselius eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı uygulanamaz. ...
In countries where terrorist incidents are prevalent, the economic structure may be affected during and after the events. While this situation has negative results in the economies of many countries, it may also have a positive impact in some. The development levels of the countries, the fragility of their economies, and how long they have been facing terrorism may differ results. There are a limited number of studies in the literature that examine the effects of terrorist incidents on the economic structure. At this point, it is a matter of curiosity whether the relationship between banks, which have an important place in the economic structure, and the loans they offer to the country's economy and terrorist incidents. In this study, it is aimed to investigate the impacts of terrorist incidents on bank credits to the private sector for Turkey. Analyzes were made within the framework of ARDL Bound Test Approach using data from 1974-2017 period. As a result of the bound test, it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. In the long term, a negative and statistically meaningful relationship was found between terrorist incidents and private sector bank credits. In other words, the increase in terrorist incidents leads to a decrease in the ratio of the private sector credits to gross domestic product (GDP). The short term cointegration relationship between the variables was considered within the framework of the Error Correction Model and the term error correction was found to be statistically meaningful and negative. CUSUM tests showed that the coefficients were stable in the long run. These findings are in line with the results of a limited number of studies on the subject in literature. Structured Abstract: In this study, it is focused on investigating the impact of terrorism on private sector bank credits. Turkey is a country that lives nested with terrorist attacks for many years. The actions that started in the 1960s in the form of street conflicts intensified in certain periods. According to the 2017 Global Terrorism Index report, Turkey ranked ninth among the 10 countries most affected by terrorism in 2016. As emphasized in many studies in the literature, the credits given by banks to the private sector within the
... and its influence on the rate of technological development. Investment theories such as the Tobin Q theory and theDuesenberry (1958) financial theory of investment have also acknowledged the importance of financial sector development on new investment.Hamuda et al. (2013) reveal that countries belonging to the cadre of developed nations have accumulated a substantial level of investment overtime. This is a clear reflection of the key importance of increasing investment in the ECOWAS.While theoretical considerations suggest that financial sector development drives (domestic) investment, empirical evidence ...
This study investigated the impact of financial sector development on domestic investment in selected Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries for the years 1985 to 2017. The study employed the Augmented Mean Group procedure which accounts for country specific heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence, and the Granger non-causality test robust to cross sectional dependence. The result reveals that (1) the impact of financial sector development on domestic investment depends on the measure of financial sector development utilised, (2) domestic credit to the private sector has a positive but insignificant impact on domestic investment in ECOWAS while banking intermediation efficiency (i.e. ability of the banks to transform deposits into credit) and broad money supply negatively and significant influence domestic investment, (3) cross country differences exist on the impact of financial sector development on domestic investment in the selected ECOWAS countries, and (4) domestic credit to the private sector Granger causes domestic investment in ECOWAS. The study recommends cautiousness in terms of the measure of financial development which is being utilised as a policy instrument to foster domestic investment as well as the importance of employing country-specific domestic investment policies in order to avoid blanket policy measures. Also, domestic credit to the private sector should be given priority when forecasting domestic investment into the future.
