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Integrated natural hazards map of Australia developed from past hazard vulnerability (30%) and hazard potential (70%) (Blong, 2005).
Source publication
The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced
by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal
adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the
climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially
constructed, biasing s...
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Citations
... This work is part of a larger project that aims to change the understanding of climate from being the statistics of weather to a physical system that exhibits complex system behaviour physically distinct to the behaviour of weather (Jones, 2012;Jones & Ricketts, 2017Jones & Ricketts, 2021aJones et al., 2013;Ricketts, 2019). The most recent results describe climate as a self-regulating system containing emergent structures and patterns that dissipate heat from the equator to the poles while maintaining energy balance between the hemispheres. ...
... A major aim of this work is to explore to what extent fire climates form stable-state regimes that can shift, rapidly changing fire risk as a result. A regime shift in fire climate has already been shown for Victoria (Jones et al., 2013) so the aim is to expand this nationally. If a climate regime shift alters the balance between dry and moist atmospheric heat (sensible and latent heat), the outcome can be a shift in fire climate regime. ...
... Averaged across Victoria, these were tested for regime shifts, all shifting in 2002 at p<0.01 (Table 1). The implications of rapid shifts for future fire risk were discussed in Jones et al. (2013), where a slightly different configuration showed a shift in 1997-98. The different dates will be discussed later. ...
This report constructs fire climates for Australia from high quality climate data, identifying specific regimes that change abruptly in response to warmer and drier conditions. Fire risk increased abruptly in the late 1990s and early 2000s leading to hotter and more frequent fires. These acute changes in risk are not predicted by the current generation of climate models. This is a global phenomenon related to large-scale shifts in the climate system.
... (4) All activities are undertaken in accordance with DELWP Wildlife Procedures and Policies, including operations, planning, and logistics, and the case studies are shown here. (5) The eastern bristlebird extraction, as an example, was authorised and conducted under the auspices of the IMT, which also supported aspects including operational planning and transport logistics. (6) The bristlebird extraction team comprised people from multiple organisations with expertise in ecology, animal health, handling, and keeping. ...
... Emergency events, such as the Black Summer fires, are predicted to occur at a higher frequency and greater intensity, and may overlap in the future due to climate change [5]. Thus, a key focus of Zoos Victoria's bushfire emergency management work has been to enhance preparedness for this future. ...
Modern zoos are increasingly taking a leading role in emergency management and wildlife recovery. In the face of climate change and the predicted increase in frequency and magnitude of catastrophic events, zoos provide specialised expertise to assist wildlife welfare and endangered species recovery. In the 2019–2020 Australian bushfire season, now called Australia’s Black Summer, a state government-directed response was developed, assembling specialised individuals and organisations from government, non-government organisations, research institutions, and others. Here, we detail the role of Zoos Victoria staff in wildlife triage and welfare, threatened species evacuation and recovery, media and communications, and fundraising during and after the fires. We share strategies for future resilience, readiness, and the ability to mobilise quickly in catastrophic events. The development of triage protocols, emergency response kits, emergency enclosures, and expanded and new captive breeding programs is underway, as are programs for care of staff mental health and nature-based community healing for people directly affected by the fires. We hope this account of our response to one of the greatest recent threats to Australia’s biodiversity, and steps to prepare for the future will assist other zoos and wildlife organisations around the world in preparations to help wildlife before, during, and after catastrophic events.
... However, high uncertainty exists within the adaptation process. Societies may be affected by various risks of maladaptation over different timeframes [3,75]. The vulnerability also varies in different periods due to the changing climate and maladaptation. ...
With the rapid development of climate change adaptation over recent decades, a considerable amount of evidence has been collected on maladaptation associated with climate change adaptation initiatives, particularly in terms of risk transfer and risk substitution. Increasing our understanding of maladaptation is important for avoiding negative outcomes of adaptation project implementation. However, maladaptation has received limited research attention. Previous research has focused on frameworks that can assist in defining and avoiding maladaptive risk and be applied to adaptation initiative planning processes. Adaptation may cause more significant influences on spatial land change than the direct effect of climate change does. Identifying the adaptation consequences that are likely to result in maladaptation is crucial. A combination of spatial land analysis and climate change analysis can be used for the aforementioned identification. However, empirical case studies on methods that can assess and evaluate the risk of maladaptation by integrating spatial and temporal aspects in a land spatial modeling tool have not been conducted. The present study aimed to fill this research gap by exploring the existing knowledge on maladaptation to climate change. We examined the interaction among spatial analysis, evaluated maladaptation frameworks, and project design to extend our conceptual understanding on maladaptation to climate change. We adopted a systematic review method that involved considering several questions including the following: (a) What are the definitions and categories of maladaptation? (b) What methods and theoretical frameworks exist for the assessment and evaluation of maladaptive risk? (c) How have climate related research communities considered issues of maladaptation? (d) What are the experimental studies on land use change that can be referred to for minimizing maladaptive risks in future adaptation planning? In conclusion, further research on maladaptation should integrate spatial land analysis methods to facilitate the identification and avoidance of maladaptive risk in the initial stage of adaptation planning.
... Because adaptation is a lengthy process that involves multiple actors and factors, such as adaptive processes and the time lag between changes in climate and institutions, this process is conducted under a high degree of climate and investment uncertainty. Thus, adaptation causes potential risks (Barnett and O'Neill 2010;Jones et al. 2013). ...
Extreme rainfall events have a negative effect on the coastal area of Jiadung Township in Pingtung County, Taiwan, which experiences critical land subsidence. Local stakeholders have developed various measures for coping with flooding impacts according to past experience. These adaptive measures not only involve managing the impact of heavy rainfall but also resisting the disastrous effects of land subsidence. However, in 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused multiple days of intense rainfall and nearly rendered ineffective the adaptive measures employed to prevent damage. Stakeholders adopt diverse measures according to different needs and vulnerabilities. Consequently, some adaptive measures are likely to cause an increase in the vulnerability of different sectors and induce additional socioeconomic impacts. This paper presents the results of a semistructured questionnaire and field survey conducted for analyzing the adaptive measures adopted by local stakeholders before and after Typhoon Morakot. According to the routes and pathways of maladaptation in the Jiadung coastal area, this study analyzed the main adaptive measures and functions as well as identified the entities affected by maladaptation. Furthermore, this study emphasizes a bottom-up viewpoint for adaptation policy decision makers.
https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/W45FYZFBAIMNTDG2Z9ZP/full?target=10.1080/08920753.2020.1803575
... Based on past experience, farmers would then be able to differentiate between good and bad seasons with high and low productivity, respectively. In such assessments, the separation of high and low prospects would depend on the balance between marginal productivity and risk tolerance (Just 2003(Just , 2008Jones et al. 2013;Miller et al. 2013). ...
The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers' possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers' responses to climate change if state-contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state-contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers' observed behaviour is consistent with the state-contingent production theory using farm-level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray-Darling Basin over the period from 2006-2007 to 2009-2010. © 2016 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc.
... Another aspect associated with changing risk ownership is the breaching of capacity thresholds (environmental, social or economic) (Jones et al. 2013) where the original risk owner will transfer the responsibility of the risk to another owner (either by a prior arrangement or by default), because they lack the capacity to address or manage the risk. An example of this is the 2009 heatwave in Victoria that exceeded the coping capacity of the health services resulting in an estimated 374 excess deaths. ...
... Any of the IAD components can be adjusted. A number of scholars- Rudd (2004), Jones et al. (2013), and Ratner et al. (2013)-modified the evaluation criteria, which originally were comprised of factors used to evaluate policy outcomes (i.e., economic efficiency; adaptability, resilience, and robustness; accountability; conformance to general morality) (Ostrom, 2005). Following these examples, this study replaced the evaluation criteria of the IAD with factors that influence the effective operationalization of mainstreaming CCA (i.e., mainstreaming challenges). ...
... For example, the lack of, or the growing awareness of climate change are considered respectively as barriers to or drivers for adaptation. Similarly, effective leadership can help communities prevail over barriers, while a lack of leadership can be a barrier itself to adaptation (Tang, et al., 2009;Moser and Ekstrom, 2010;Jones, et al., 2013). 6 institutions such as autonomy of local governments, local government prioritization, commitment to CCA, and other institutional issues relating to policies, regulations, and the like (Pini, et al., 2007;OECD, 2009;Burch, 2010;Ayers, et al., 2014;Waters, et al., 2014); (2) matters linked to social structure-based institutions such as community support, institutional incentives and local leadership (Burch, 2010;Moser and Ekstrom, 2010;Biesbroek, et al., 2011;Oberlack and Eisenack, 2014); and (3) organizational concerns such as organizational cohesion, and organizational cooperation and collaboration arrangements (Pini, et al., 2007;Amundsen, et al., 2010;Biesbroek, et al., 2011;Eisenack, et al., 2014). ...
Purpose
This paper aims to contribute to adaptation research by devising a systematic method for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into local land use planning. It argues that mainstreaming operationalization necessitates a methodology that focuses on the challenges in applying the approach and an analytical framework that can examine the mainstreaming process from an institutional perspective.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applied triangulation by data method (i.e. document review, interview, survey and key informant consultations) and incorporated the scorecard approach in developing the four-stage mixed methodology. It used a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as primary analytical guide and applied the case study methodology for structure and focus in relation to data collection activities.
Findings
This paper devised the four-stage mixed methodology and successfully applied it in examining the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. Using the methodology, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” and generated qualitative analyses to assess the state of play of the challenges in local mainstreaming of CCA. Results suggest that mainstreaming challenges exist within a certain spectrum, with one end composed of barriers to, and the other, opportunities for CCA. Furthermore, the challenges occur at varying degrees of severity depending on the conditions that surround them.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is limited to illustrating the process involved in developing the four-stage mixed methodology and presents only a brief discussion of the quantitative and qualitative results.
Practical implications
Although the methodology is at its initial stages of development, it generated results that can help analysts, planners and decision-makers: determine the nature of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, thereby understand the mainstreaming process; prioritize the mainstreaming challenges to address; and design strategies that will maximize the use of limited resources (i.e. utilizing the opportunities to overcome the existing barriers), among others.
Originality/value
The four-stage mixed methodology was developed to aid analysts, planners and decision-makers determine the state-of-play of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA and make informed decisions in overcoming these challenges. Thus, the mixed method can be a useful tool in advancing the operationalization of the mainstreaming approach.
... Current adaptation research is firmly founded on a positivist and predictive-empirical epistemology. The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change, for example, have been heavily influenced by positivist scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change (Jones et al. 2013 ). As Glover (2006) articulates, 'objective' science has been and continues to be the basis upon which the entire climate change discourse has been built, with global data collection and analysis and climate modelling being at the centre of gathering knowledge about climate processes and building scenarios of future climate, as well as informing adaptive responses across different scales. ...
... Any of the IAD components can be adjusted. A number of scholars- Rudd (2004), Jones et al. (2013), and Ratner et al. (2013)-modified the evaluation criteria, which originally were comprised of factors used to evaluate policy outcomes (i.e., economic efficiency; adaptability, resilience, and robustness; accountability; conformance to general morality) (Ostrom, 2005). Following these examples, this study replaced the evaluation criteria of the IAD with factors that influence the effective operationalization of mainstreaming CCA (i.e., mainstreaming challenges). ...
... For example, the lack of, or the growing awareness of climate change are considered respectively as barriers to or drivers for adaptation. Similarly, effective leadership can help communities prevail over barriers, while a lack of leadership can be a barrier itself to adaptation (Tang, et al., 2009;Moser and Ekstrom, 2010;Jones, et al., 2013). 6 institutions such as autonomy of local governments, local government prioritization, commitment to CCA, and other institutional issues relating to policies, regulations, and the like (Pini, et al., 2007;OECD, 2009;Burch, 2010;Ayers, et al., 2014;Waters, et al., 2014); (2) matters linked to social structure-based institutions such as community support, institutional incentives and local leadership (Burch, 2010;Moser and Ekstrom, 2010;Biesbroek, et al., 2011;Oberlack and Eisenack, 2014); and (3) organizational concerns such as organizational cohesion, and organizational cooperation and collaboration arrangements (Pini, et al., 2007;Amundsen, et al., 2010;Biesbroek, et al., 2011;Eisenack, et al., 2014). ...
Purpose
This paper aims to contribute to adaptation research by devising a systematic method for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into local land use planning. It argues that mainstreaming operationalization necessitates a methodology that focuses on the challenges in applying the approach, and an analytical framework that can examine the mainstreaming process from an institutional perspective.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applied triangulation by data method (i.e., document review, interview, survey, and key informant consultations) and incorporated the scorecard approach in developing the four-stage mixed methodology. It used a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as primary analytical guide and applied the case study methodology for structure and focus in relation to data collection activities.
Findings
This paper devised the four-stage mixed methodology and successfully applied it in examining the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. Using the methodology, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” and generated qualitative analyses to assess the state of play of the challenges in local mainstreaming of CCA. Results suggest that mainstreaming challenges exist within a certain spectrum with one end comprised of barriers to, and the other, opportunities for CCA. Furthermore, the challenges occur at varying degrees of severity depending on the conditions that surround them.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is limited to illustrating the process involved in developing the four-stage mixed methodology and presents only a brief discussion of the quantitative and qualitative results.
Practical implications
Although the methodology is at its initial stages of development, it generated results that can help analysts, planners, and decision-makers: (1) determine the nature of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, thereby understand the mainstreaming process; (2) prioritize the mainstreaming challenges to address; and (3) design strategies that will maximize the use of limited resources (i.e., utilizing the opportunities to overcome the existing barriers), among others.
Originality/value
The four-stage mixed methodology was developed to aid analysts, planners, and decision-makers determine the state-of-play of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA and make informed decisions in overcoming these challenges. Thus, the mixed method can be a useful tool in advancing the operationalization of the mainstreaming approach.
... For example, the lack of, or the growing awareness to climate change are respectively considered as barriers to or drivers for adaptation. Similarly, effective leadership can help communities prevail over barriers, while the lack of it can be a barrier itself to adaptation (Tang et al. 2009;Roberts 2008;Moser & Ekstrom 2010;Jones et al. 2013). ...
... Whereas the way information is communicated affects the attitude of recipients toward the information-specifically, their acceptance and willingness to use the information-the way information is translated influences its utility. That is, the way complex ideas and scientific findings are explained would determine how users understand and utilise the information (Agrawala and van Aalst 2006;Biesbroek et al. 2011;Jones et al. 2013). ...
... , DiGregorio et al. (2012),Jones et al. (2013), andRatner et al. (2013), who modified the evaluation criteria. Following these examples, this research replaced the evaluation criteria of the IAD with factors that influence the effective operationalisation of mainstreaming CCA (i.e., mainstreaming challenges). ...
Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach that links adaptation and sustainable development goals by integrating climate change information, concerns, and considerations into existing development planning, and policy- and decision-making processes. However, a gap exists in the operationalisation of mainstreaming, mainly because the tools and methodologies in mainstreaming neglect the institutional reforms needed in the approach. This thesis focused on mainstreaming CCA into local land-use planning, and asked “How can mainstreaming of CCA into local land-use planning be understood?” and “How can the challenges in the operationalisation of mainstreaming be overcome?” To answer these questions, a four-stage mixed methodology was devised and successfully applied in examining the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land-use planning in Albay, Philippines. Local land-use planning in Albay is a “critical case” because it presents evidence of institutional capacity for long-term adaptation to climate change, with indication of transformational opportunities for mainstreaming. The methodology applied the mixed method, case study, and scorecard approaches, and it involved triangulation by data technique (i.e., document review, interview, survey, and key informant consultations). By using this methodology, the research generated 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” and produced qualitative assessments of the state-of-play and the challenges in local mainstreaming of CCA. Analyses revealed that (1) mainstreaming challenges exist within a spectrum, with barriers and opportunities for adaptation representing the extreme ends of this spectrum; (2) barriers can be overcome and can transcend into opportunities for
mainstreaming CCA; (3) barriers can be classified according to varying levels of severity; and (4) barriers themselves are interconnected, but to differing degrees. Also, the research showed that mainstreaming operationalisation involves a network of interacting institutions and institutional arrangements that transcend across governance scales. Likewise, the challenges in mainstreaming CCA encompass a chain of interactions or interplays within the network (of institutions). Accordingly, overcoming mainstreaming challenges necessitates broad institutional reforms that go beyond the institutional setting where CCA is to be integrated. A deep understanding of these concerns can help scholars, practitioners, planners, and decision-makers anticipate the types of challenges to be encountered during the mainstreaming process; determine the severity of the impacts of these challenges; and formulate strategies that will overcome the challenges.
