Integrated land use map 2020 for the Economic Co-ordination scenario, existing spatial planning policies and autonomous developments. 

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... for all market segments that new residences tend to be built in the immediate neighbourhood of existing residential areas. In addition to existing residential areas new towns appear to play an important role in residential construction between 1980 and 1995. For all market segments the assignment of a new town (or growth centre) status has led to a strong increase in residential construction in the grid cells con- cerned. Based on estimates of suitabilities for various types of land use and on national and regional totals for certain types of land we have simulated the developments of future land use. We start with a discussion of land for residential purposes. The pattern illustrated by figure 2 underlines the strong position of the current large cities in the Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht) in the Central and Western part of the country. Given the concentration of work locations in these areas it is here where the highest probabilities can be found that open space is used for the construction of new housing. In addition, there is a considerable number of medium sized cities that appear to be attractive locations for residential activities. A difference between single and multiple family dwellings is that the latter are expected to be much more concentrated in the urban areas. This makes sense given the higher land prices, the smaller household size and the lower income levels usually observed in urban areas in the Netherlands. Part of figure 2 is based on government plans in physical planning that have been formulated in earlier stages and that have not yet been implemented, but where the realisation is (almost) sure. Another part of figure 2 is based on the model parameters estimated in table 1. This means that we assume that the parameters estimated for the period between 1980 and 1995 also hold for the period after it. For example, we assume that the role of the attraction of proximity to work locations in residential construction remains unchanged during the periods considered. Other assumptions could of course have been formulated. For example, one might conjecture that proximity to work locations becomes less important in view of the potential of ICT induced telecommuting. We have abstained from such a broad analysis of possible futures. Thus the results presented here are based on the as- sumption that preferences of physical planners, real estate developers and public sector remain unchanged. The only uncertainties considered in the present paper relate to the elements of the scenarios (see section 3). On the basis of figure 2 one can derive predictions of the extent to which zones will experience a change into land use for residential purposes. The results are presented in figure 3 for the CE scenario. This means that population is assumed to increase from 15.5 million in 1995 to 17.7 million in 2020. All provinces except for the province of Zealand (located in the South West) are expected to experience major expansion of residential areas. Most expansion is expected to take place in the vicinity of the present cities plus in a very limited number of new towns. For the other scenarios maps with similar patterns result. The scenarios do not so much differ in terms of spatial development patterns but more in terms of speed of expansion of the area used for residential purposes. A striking difference between figures 2 and 3 is that in figure 2 the existing major urban areas can easily be iden- tified, whereas they remain invisible in figure 3. The reason is that figure 2 demonstrates the probability that land can be used for residential construction assuming that it is open land . Since most of the land in the urban areas is already used for urban activities it plays only a small role in the reallocation of land for residential use as shown in figure 3. Figure 3 shows that open areas rather close to the existing cities are expected to dominate residential construction. 1 In the above analysis we have focussed on changes in land use in view of shifts towards residential purposes. In order to present a more complete picture on changes in land use we briefly discuss the way these land use types have been taken into account in the Land Use Scanner. The land use types distinguished have already been mentioned in section 3. In the sections above we have already discussed he claims for residential land use based on the suitabilities estimated in section 5, and driven by the projected national population total according to the various scenarios. In addition to these claims for residential land use various projections have been used for other land use types such as industrial and commercial areas, infrastructure, leisure areas, water and natural areas, each driven by their own national or regional constraints. Agriculture appears the main land use type that is loosing area. The integrated land use map for 2020 that is the result of applying the above procedure is presented in figure 4 for the EC scenario. The results derived above have been used to determine the effects of land use change on the environment my means of a set of indicators. The indicators have been selected on the basis of political relevance, sensitivity for land use change, the broad coverage of environmental themes and the avail- ability of operational models. Some of the indicators can be directly computed by means of the Land Use Scanner model. However, in most cases land use as predicted for 2020 (generated with the Land Use Scanner model) is just only one of the essential inputs to compute the relevant indicators. Due to the broad coverage of the environmental themes these indicators are calculated using knowledge and a wide range of models available at the RIVM and other institutes. 2 We give some details for a selection of indicators. The expansion of nature as delimited by the provinces will increase the area of nature in the Netherlands signifi- cantly. However, spatial analysis shows that the locations of new natural areas are so scattered that the cohesion of natural areas develops in a less favourable way than the increase in natural area. The quality of the flora in the Netherlands is calculated with the Nature planner model. The value of the indicator is a product of nature quantity and the nature quality expressed as the occurrence of selected plant species [20]. The increase in nature quality can be preliminary con- tributed to the restoration of the ground water levels. Reduc- tion in acidification and fertilisation are too small to have a significant influence. Spatial analyses regarding safety show that new built up areas are located in areas in danger of flooding and water excess, taking into account the water drainage in 2020. While other land use types like natural areas are also not planned at locations were they can have a reducing effect on flooding and water excess. The model FACTS [21] is used to calculate the ownership, fuel cost and energy use of passenger cars in 2020. Car ownership and fuel cost are, in conjunction with the Land Use Scanner results, used to calculate the use of cars on an average working day making use of the LMS-Model [22]. The outputs of the LMS model are on their part again used to calculate the noise nuisance (making use of the model described in [23] and the accessibility of jobs by the labour force with a commuting time lower than 45 minutes [24]. The overall conclusion of the comparison between the present situation and the simulation for 2020 is that the environmental quality is improving, although one has to keep in mind that currently implemented policies without spatial aspects also have positive impacts on the environmental quality in the year 2020. Especially the indicators dealing with nature are positive owing to the realisation of more than 150,000 hectares of new nature. This is about 4% of the total area of the country and implies a considerable shift in land use. The background of this increase is that agricultural areas are replaced by natural areas. Not only the total size of natural areas is improving, also the cohesion of natural areas is getting better. Cohesion is measured in terms of the degree to which the cutting up of natural areas has been avoided. It is an important qualitative aspect of nature since in addition to total area also the existence of barriers between natural areas has an impact on ecosystems. The environmental indicators show that an increase in CO 2 emissions is expected. The improvement of energy ef- ficiency of cars is more than off-set by an increase in car use and an increase in the weight of cars. The amount of nitrate that leaches to groundwater, and threatens its use for drinking water, decreases. The new housing developments have a negative impact on the landscape indicators. Even though new residential areas tend to be built near to existing residential areas there is a tendency that the openness of landscapes (measured via the extent to which built areas interfere with open space) deteriorates. Another aspect of the expected residential construction activities is that in vulnerable regions in the Netherlands the flooding hazard and the chance on water excess increases moderately. The analytical possibilities of geographical information systems have been improved substantially by linking them to land use models. This enables planners to assess the pro’s and con’s of various spatial principles or to value the effects of spatial strategies on policy targets or societal aims. More- over, it opens the way to a much more quantitative approach to planning that can complement the present more qualitative planning practice. This study shows that it is possible to anticipate complex land use dynamics and their environmental impacts. Due to the developments in the IT world in general and the world of Geographic Information Systems in particular the problems encountered are no longer technological. When the central ...