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... answer this question, we have divided it into two components 12 using a Hodrick Prescott filter with 100 as the filter term. 6 We end up with two components: the short term component called cycle, shown in Figure 3, and the medium/long term component shown as the broken line in Figure 2. Table 3 shows that both components influence mortality in later life. The relative risks of the two covariates are difficult to compare directly, since their vari- ances differ a lot. ...
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In this study we tested our hypothesis (and preliminary observations) that early-lifeconditions may determine in part the later sex differences in adult lifespan. We found thatsuch variables as (1) father's age at person's conception, (2) parental lifespan, and (3)month of birth, have larger effects on adult lifespan (life expectancy at age 30) in femalesrather than males. Daughters born to particularly young fathers (below 25 years) or oldfathers (above 45 years) live shorter lives, while ...
rary, they are sex-specific?This question stimulated us to conductthis study on the sex specificity of theeffects of early-life conditions on adultlifespan.177ANNALES DE DMOGRAPHIE HISTORIQUE 2003 n 2 p. 177 198EARLY-LIFE PREDICTORS OF HUMAN LONGEVITY:ANALYSIS OF THE XIXby Natalia S. GAVRILOVA, Leonid A. GAVRILOV,Galina N. EVDOKUSHKINA, Victoria G. SEMYONOVAAcknowledgmentsThe results of this study were presented at the2001 Annual meeting of the Social Science andHistory...
Nutritional conditions in utero and during infancy may causally affect health and mortality during childhood, adulthood, and at old ages. This paper investigates whether exposure to a nutritional shock in early life negatively affects survival at older ages, using individual data. Nutritional conditions are captured by exposure to the Potato famine in the Netherlands in 1846-1847, and by regional and temporal variation in market prices of potato and rye. The data cover the lifetimes of a random sample of Dutch individuals born between 1812 and 1902 and provide individual information on life events and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. First we non-parametrically compare the total and residual lifetimes of individuals exposed and not exposed to the famine in utero and/or until age 1. Next, we estimate survival models in which we control for individual characteristics and additional (early life) determinants of mortality. We find strong evidence for long-run effects of exposure to the Potato famine. The results are stronger for boys than for girls. Boys and girls lose on average 4, respectively 2.5 years of life after age 50 after exposure at birth to the Potato famine. Lower social classes appear to be more affected by early life exposure to the Potato famine than higher social classes. These results confirm the mechanism linking early life (nutritional) conditions to old-age mortality. Finally, higher food prices at birth appear to reduce later life mortality of children of farmers from higher social classes. We interpret this as an income effect.
Background: Nutrition in utero and infancy may causally affect health and mortality at old ages. Until now, very few studies have demonstrated long-run effects on survival of early life nutrition, mainly because of data limitations and confounding issues. Methods: This paper investigates whether exposure to nutritional shocks in early life negatively affects longevity at older ages, using unique individual data and exploiting the exogenous variation implied by natural experiments. In particular, early nutritional conditions are instrumented by exposure to the potato famine of unprecedented severity that the Dutch faced in 1846-47. The individual data are from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands and are augmented by food price data and macro-economic data. The sample used in the study covers lifetimes of 398 individuals exposed and 1,342 individuals not exposed to severe famine during gestation and/or till age three. We compare non-parametrically the total and residual lifetimes of treated and controls per gender. We also estimate survival models in which we control for other individual characteristics and additional (early life) determinants of mortality. Results: Men exposed to severe famine during pregnancy (at least four months) and directly after birth have a significant lower residual life expectancy at age 50 than others, but not at earlier ages. We could not demonstrate any long-run effects for men exposed at ages 0-2 and for women. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first evidence suggesting long-run effects of early nutritional stresses on mortality at old ages for men.
