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17. Immediately after the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, atmospheric SO 2 levels, measured by TOMS satellites, were highest directly over the Philippines (courtesy of NASA).
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We infer the temporal changes in the pressure sources that induced crustal deformation during the 2018 Shinmoe-dake eruption using strain and tilt observations and discern that the deep magmatic activity associated with the early stage of this eruption began approximately 19 h earlier than the previously defined onset of magmatic activity. Distinct tilt changes were observed from around 09:00 on 6 March to 12:00 on 8 March 2018 (JST), coincident with observed lava outflow into the crater and lava dome formation. Existing studies have attributed this tilt change to the onset of the deflation of a spherical pressure source located at ~ 7 km bsl (below sea level) to the northwest of Shinmoe-dake. Here we examine strain and tilt data that were acquired in the Kirishima volcanic group, and we find that the distinct changes in the measured strain at Isa-Yoshimatsu Observatory began at around 14:00 on 5 March. This change can be explained by the deflation of a spherical pressure source, thereby suggesting that the onset of magma ascent was earlier than previously thought. The time variation in the spherical pressure source is estimated using the time-dependent inversion of the Ensemble Kalman Filter; the deflation source ascended from ~ 11 to 7 km bsl during Phase 1 (14:00 on 5 March to 06:00 on 6 March) and descended from 7 to 8 km bsl during Phase 2 (06:00 on 6 March to 12:00 on 8 March). Interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis suggests that a dike intrusion had occurred just below Shinmoe-dake crater until 5 March, and this inflatable crustal deformation is attributed to the emplacement of residual volcanic fluids from the 2011 eruption. It is also known that the surface eruptive activity increased during Phase 1, including an increase in ash venting from the night of 5 March. These strain and tilt observations, therefore, suggest that magma ascended from ~ 11 km bsl to the magma reservoir at 7 km bsl during Phase 1, followed by a deflation of the magma reservoir during Phase 2 due to the large magma supply to the surface.
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