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Global wind patterns as characterized by three drivers of dispersal: prevailing wind direction, average wind speed and anisotropy a, Examples of local wind regimes; point clouds represent speed and direction for every hour from 1980 to 2009, and radial lines indicate the prevailing direction. b, Wind speed and anisotropy across terrestrial grid cells (r² = 0.25); the examples in a are shown. c, Geographical patterns of wind regimes; the prevailing wind direction is indicated by wind paths and arrows, and the speed and anisotropy correspond to the colours in b. Source data
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The resilience of biodiversity in the face of climate change depends on gene flow and range shifts. For diverse wind-dispersed and wind-pollinated organisms, regional wind patterns could either facilitate or hinder these movements, depending on alignment of winds with spatial climate patterns. We map global variation in terrestrial wind regimes, an...
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... With global change, environmental triggers might increase LDD in insects, and excessive LDD of allochtonous, potentially invasive elements to ecosystems has been identified as one of the main threats to global biodiversity 54 . Droughts in Africa increase concentrations of subsequent transported aerial dust 29 , and windscape connectivity has also been predicted to change in the future and to severely impact wind-dispersed species 55 . Importantly, insects are also known to respond to environmental stress with increased movement behavior 47,56 , and migratory movements may increase the probability of accidental LDD. ...
The extent of aerial flows of insects circulating around the planet and their impact on ecosystems and biogeography remain enigmatic because of methodological challenges. Here we report a transatlantic crossing by Vanessa cardui butterflies spanning at least 4200 km, from West Africa to South America (French Guiana) and lasting between 5 and 8 days. Even more, we infer a likely natal origin for these individuals in Western Europe, and the journey Europe-Africa-South America could expand to 7000 km or more. This discovery was possible through an integrative approach, including coastal field surveys, wind trajectory modelling, genomics, pollen metabarcoding, ecological niche modelling, and multi-isotope geolocation of natal origins. The overall journey, which was energetically feasible only if assisted by winds, is among the longest documented for individual insects, and potentially the first verified transatlantic crossing. Our findings suggest that we may be underestimating transoceanic dispersal in insects and highlight the importance of aerial highways connecting continents by trade winds.
... Dispersal of sessile or slow-moving species such as benthic marine invertebrates and wind-dispersing plants relies on external directional forces (ocean currents or prevailing wind directions), and these forces can be misaligned with the direction of isotherm shifts (Fig. 3b). Misaligned dispersal processes can impede species from tracking changing environments, particularly at the leading edge 98,99 (Fig. 3b). Animal-assisted dispersal can also impede range shifts of seed-bearing plants, as animal vectors do not always disperse in the direction of climate shifts 100,101 . ...
... Another promising direction is generalizing how the spatial pathways of species shifts interact with properties of the landscape. For instance, global climate velocities can be used to identify regions where range shifts might be expected 218 , global ocean and wind currents can be used to identify areas in which these forces will facilitate or impede shifts of passively dispersing species 98,99 , and landscape quality maps can be used to estimate potential routes through which range shifts have an increased likelihood of occurring 219 . Such area-based approaches could aid in management efforts to facilitate climatedriven range shifts even in systems wherein species-specific data are unavailable. ...
Shifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range
shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are directionally consistent with climate change, based on the BioShifts database of range shift observations. However, many observed species have not shifted or have shifted
in directions opposite to temperature-based expectations. These lagging or expectation-contrary shifts might be explained by additional biotic or abiotic factors driving range shifts, including additional non-temperature climatic drivers, habitat characteristics, and species interactions, which are not normally considered in range shift documentations. Understanding and managing range shifts will require increasing and connecting observational biological data, generalizing range shift patterns across systems, and predicting shifts at management-relevant timescales.
... In some cases, warming temperatures and associated aridity can increase seed release height (Bjorkman et al., 2018;Teller et al., 2014), which has direct impacts on increasing potential dispersal distance (Thomson et al., 2011). This increase in dispersal can be exacerbated when these warmer temperatures change the speed, direction, and turbulence of wind conditions that further promote long-distance dispersal (Kling & Ackerly, 2020;Kuparinen et al., 2009). However, for some species, increasing temperature can have the opposite effect on dispersal. ...
... Grasslands tend to be dominated by plants that disperse by wind (Lorts et al., 2008;Packard & Mutel, 1997). As climates warm, wind speed and turbulence patterns are expected to increase in the prairie region (Kling & Ackerly, 2020), which could further enhance dispersal in these more open, continuous systems. While our study is observational in nature, we encourage future studies to control for the effects of climate on plants from isolated and continuous habitats in order to parse out how dispersal is (or is not) changing. ...
Understanding dispersal potential, or the probability a species will move a given distance, under different environmental conditions is essential to predicting species' ability to move across the landscape and track shifting ecological niches. Two important drivers of dispersal ability are climatic differences and variations in local habitat type. Despite the likelihood these global drivers act simultaneously on plant populations, and thus dispersal potential is likely to change as a result, their combined effects on dispersal are rarely examined. To understand the effect of climate and varying habitat types on dispersal potential, we studied Geum triflorum —a perennial grassland species that spans a wide range of environments, including both prairie and alvar habitats. We explored how the climate of the growing season and habitat type (prairie vs. alvar) interact to alter dispersal potential. We found a consistent interactive effect of climate and habitat type on dispersal potential. Across prairie populations, an increased number of growing degree days favored traits that increase dispersal potential or the probability of dispersing farther distances. However, for alvar populations, dispersal potential tended to decrease as the number of growing degree days increased. Our findings suggest that under continued warming, populations in prairie habitats will benefit from increased gene flow, while alvar populations will become increasingly segregated, with reduced potential to track shifting fitness optima.
... Wind occurs due to the movement of air due to uneven heating of the Earth's surface by the sun. It forms due to pressure difference and acts as an equaliser to stabilise the global climate by transporting hot air masses from the equatorial region heated more by the sun, which is replaced by cooler, denser air masses from polar regions (Kling & Ackerly, 2020). The wind pattern is also influenced by cloud cover, proximity to water bodies, and natural barriers like mountains and forests. ...
A global phenomenon identified 200 years ago as Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect gained popularity as the sheer contributor to the precipitous temperature gradient between rural and urban interface, instigating excess heat gain and associated ill effects on the urban dwellers. UHI is a function of many interrelated geographical, ecological, and economic parameters that require differential treatment in determining the antecedent impacts. This transdisciplinary review assessed the passive strategies (vegetation, cool roofs, cool pavements, and green roofs) from 83 studies that employed a numerical simulation approach to combat UHI. On average, vegetation and cool/green roofs can reduce ambient temperature by 3-5°C, while cool pavements help to reduce surface temperature by 5°C. All passive strategies also reveal it can reduce buildings' energy demand by 4-10%. However, the current methodological framework for evaluating UHI is quite fragmented, using multiple software and estimates only Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), ignoring Canopy Urban Heat Island (CUHI), Boundary Urban Heat Island (BUHI), and the nexus of ‘UHI-Climatology,’ which is linked to regional and global climate change, failing to model UHI and its complex connection to climate change accurately. The review found that the efficacy of passive strategies is a function of factors ranging from location, cloud cover, and soil type to simulation accuracy; hence, while these passive strategies alleviate outdoor temperature in one place, they can cause counterproductive impacts in another region. Therefore, as a postlude, the paper explores an alternative methodological framework for evaluating the nexus of UHI-Climatology using digital twin technology, thus espousing better mitigation strategies.
... However, L. gibbus populations in the five research locations exhibited strong genetic connectivity. Genetic connectivity can occur due to the long-distance ocean currents (Xuereb et al. 2018;Kling and Ackerly 2020) and distance between populations (Aguillon et al. 2017;Snead et al. 2023). ...
Pranata B, Sala R, Kusuma AB, Toha AHA, Purbani DC, Mokodongan DF, Sipriyadi. 2024. Genetic diversity and connectivity of Red Snapper Lutjanus gibbus in the Papua Waters, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 25: 276-286. There is limited knowledge regarding the genetic connectivity and diversity of the Red Snapper (Lutjanus gibbus Forsskål, 1775) populations that inhabit Papua Waters, Indonesia. Thus, the current study attempted to ascertain the genetic characteristics, level of diversity and genetic connectivity of the L. gibbus population. We conducted genetic research on 38 L. gibbus specimens from five different places in Papua Waters. We analyzed the L. gibbus genetic characteristics, diversity and genetic connectivity using the Cytochrome C Oxidase subunit I (COI) gene as the genetic marker. There were 15 polymorphism sites in the COI gene sequence among L. gibbus individuals. Polymorphism occurs due to transversion and transition mutations. The COI gene fragment was translated, producing 188 amino acids composed of 19 different amino acids. A total of 13 distinct haplotypes were detected among the L. gibbus population residing in Papua Waters. The haplotype diversity (Hd=0.740) and nucleotide diversity (Pi=0.002) were relatively medium. The genetic structure study indicated that the 5 populations of L. gibbus in the Papua Waters had little genetic differentiation, as evidenced by a Fixation Index (Fst) of 0.018 (P-value 0.35386±0.01443). Based on this, the management of Red Snapper resources at these 5 locations must be carried out as a single unit.
... Nonetheless, the feems analysis detected barriers to gene flow precisely where we can expect a decrease in pollen exchange: over large bodies of water or over wide spaces of steppe or broad-leaved woods. The relative isolation of the Spanish and the Caucasian populations identified by feems confirms previous results obtained using other genetic markers (Soranzo et al., 2000;Naydenov et al., 2007;Semerikov et al., 2020;Dering et al., 2021;Wachowiak et al., 2022b) and can partially be linked to counteracting dominant winds (Kling & Ackerly, 2020). These barriers, even if detectable, are overall faint, and Scots pine can be considered close to panmictic. ...
Scots pine is the foundation species of diverse forested ecosystems across Eurasia and displays remarkable ecological breadth, occurring in environments ranging from temperate rainforests to arid tundra margins. Such expansive distributions can be favored by various demographic and adaptive processes and the interactions between them.
To understand the impact of neutral and selective forces on genetic structure in Scots pine, we conducted range‐wide population genetic analyses on 2321 trees from 202 populations using genotyping‐by‐sequencing, reconstructed the recent demography of the species and examined signals of genetic adaptation.
We found a high and uniform genetic diversity across the entire range (global F ST 0.048), no increased genetic load in expanding populations and minor impact of the last glacial maximum on historical population sizes. Genetic‐environmental associations identified only a handful of single‐nucleotide polymorphisms significantly linked to environmental gradients.
The results suggest that extensive gene flow is predominantly responsible for the observed genetic patterns in Scots pine. The apparent missing signal of genetic adaptation is likely attributed to the intricate genetic architecture controlling adaptation to multi‐dimensional environments. The panmixia metapopulation of Scots pine offers a good study system for further exploration into how genetic adaptation and plasticity evolve under gene flow and changing environment.
... In conifers, pollen dispersal can reach up to 10 km (Molina-Sánchez et al., 2019), while seeds reach only 31 m in A. alba, transported mainly by wind and some animals (Briggs et al., 2009;Ortiz-Bibian et al., 2019). At elevated sites such as volcanoes, anemochoric dispersal depends on regional wind patterns resulting from the global variation of wind regimes, which either facilitates or restrains the displacement of pollen and seeds (Kling & Ackerly, 2020). In the LMNP, the dominant winds flow from the southeast during autumn and winter and from the northeast in spring and summer (Fernández & López-Domínguez, 2005); this may result in constant gene flow and low genetic structure despite the changes in land use and the obvious geographic barriers (e.g. ...
Genetic structure of a population can be molded by the resistance of the landscape or the distance between populations that function as barriers to gene flow. We analyzed the population genetic structure of Abies religiosa on a fine spatial scale and examined isolation models by resistance and distance. We collected vegetative tissue from populations located at the altitudinal extremes of the distribution range of the species on three slopes of La Malinche National Park (LMNP) (South, North, and East) in central Mexico. Genomic DNA was obtained using the CTAB 2X method, and eight microsatellite chloroplast loci were amplified. The genetic structure was identified based on an Analysis of Molecular Variance, a Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components with cross-validation and a spatial Principal Component Analysis using the Gabriel-type connectivity network. The isolation hypotheses were evaluated by constructing partial Mantel tests using Reciprocal Causal Modeling and Maximum Likelihood Population Effects models. A genetic structure of isolation by resistance to elevation was identified, and two genetic groups were recognized: one including populations of the South slope and the other comprising populations of the North and East slopes. We detected in Abies religiosa populations of the LMNP an isolation by resistance to elevation that determines the genetic structure, and the greatest genetic exchange between groups of populations located at higher altitudes. It is suggested to promote the connectivity between slopes through assisted migration and immediately halt land-use changes, as part of the actions to preserve genetic diversity in the LMPN. This study contributes to the knowledge of the spatial genetic structure of species at risk in the Mexican temperate forest for their conservation.
... Earth's temperature is influenced by several factors, such as: i) altitude and relief, which influence air temperature (the higher the altitude, the fewer the particles absorbing and diffusing solar radiation, resulting in lower temperatures) and act as natural barriers to the movement of air masses/prevalent wind patterns [1]; ii) sea and land structures, resulting in local variations, that can be opposed (dry and torrid heat on slopes exposed directly to the sun, occasional thermal inversion, particularly at night and in enclosed valleys [1]; iii) global wind patterns, that shift north or south according to the seasons [1,2]; iv) latitude and the angles of the sun rays, determined by the tilt of the Earth's axis, changing the angle of incidence of electromagnetic energy and altering the day duration at different altitudes; and v) anthropogenic effects on atmospheric and oceanic temperature [3]. ...
... We verified whether there were zones with different thermal behaviours over time by analysing the hourly variation in LST during the day and night, based on the different times of passage of the Terra and Aqua sensors. For this purpose, we calculated the variation coefficients using the exact time of passage of the sensors each day, for each cell of the 1 km grid, applying Equations (1) and (2). Note that, the data from LST_2am and Time_2am refer to data from the day after LST_10pm and Time_10pm. ...
Studying changes in temperature is fundamental for understanding its interactions with the environment and biodiversity. However, studies in mountainous areas are few, due to their complex formation and the difficulty of obtaining local data. We analysed changes in temperature over time in Montesinho Natural Park (MNP) (Bragança, Portugal), an important conservation area due to its high level of biodiversity. Specifically, we aimed to analyse: i) whether temperature increased in MNP over time, ii) what environmental factors influence the Land Surface Temperature (LST), and iii) whether vegetation is related to changes in temperature. We used annual summer and winter mean data acquired from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets/products (e.g. LST, gathered at four different times: 11am, 1pm, 10pm and 2am, Enhance vegetation index - EVI, and Evapotranspiration - ET), available on the cloud-based platform Google Earth Engine between 2003 and 2021). We analysed the dynamics of the temporal trend patterns between the LST and local thermal data (from a weather station) by correlations; the trends in LST over time with the Mann-Kendall trend test; and the stability of hot spots and cold spots of LST with Local Statistics of Spatial Association (LISA) tests. The temporal trend patterns between LST and Air Temperature (Tair) data were very similar (ρ > 0.7). The temperature in the MNP remained stable over time during summer but increased during winter nights. The biophysical indices were strongly correlated with the summer LST at 11am and 1pm. The LISA results identified hot and cold zones that remained stable over time. The remote-sensed data proved to be efficient in measuring changes in temperature over time.
... Passive dispersal strategies limit the ability of a species to dictate their dispersal trajectory, thereby hindering range shifts in response to environmental change (Kling and Ackerly, 2020) while impacting the distribution of genetic variation through complex patterns of gene flow (Nikula et al., 2013;Rougemont et al., 2021). Passive dispersal strategies often depend on wind or ocean currents that are inherently asymmetric (Kling and Ackerly, 2020), resulting in directional patterns of gene flow that can dictate the potential for local adaptation through genetic rescue (Matz et al., 2018;Kling and Ackerly, 2021;Rougemont et al., 2021). ...
... Passive dispersal strategies limit the ability of a species to dictate their dispersal trajectory, thereby hindering range shifts in response to environmental change (Kling and Ackerly, 2020) while impacting the distribution of genetic variation through complex patterns of gene flow (Nikula et al., 2013;Rougemont et al., 2021). Passive dispersal strategies often depend on wind or ocean currents that are inherently asymmetric (Kling and Ackerly, 2020), resulting in directional patterns of gene flow that can dictate the potential for local adaptation through genetic rescue (Matz et al., 2018;Kling and Ackerly, 2021;Rougemont et al., 2021). There is a growing body of literature demonstrating the importance of long-distance, passive ocean current-mediated gene flow in coastal and marine systems (Schunter et al., 2011;Damerau et al., 2012;Xuereb et al., 2018), but our study is the first to evaluate how ocean currents affect genetic structure in an intertidal fish species while also explicitly quantifying relationships between asymmetric gene flow and surface currents. ...
Passive dispersal via wind or ocean currents can drive asymmetric gene flow, which influences patterns of genetic variation and the capacity of populations to evolve in response to environmental change. The mangrove rivulus fish (Kryptolebias marmoratus), hereafter “rivulus,” is an intertidal fish species restricted to the highly fragmented New World mangrove forests of Central America, the Caribbean, the Bahamas, and Florida. Mangrove patches are biological islands with dramatic differences in both abiotic and biotic conditions compared to adjacent habitat. Over 1,000 individual rivulus across 17 populations throughout its range were genotyped at 32 highly polymorphic microsatellites. Range-wide population genetic structure was evaluated with five complementary approaches that found eight distinct population clusters. However, an analysis of molecular variance indicated significant population genetic structure among regions, populations within regions, sampling locations within populations, and individuals within sampling locations, indicating that rivulus has both broad- and fine-scale genetic differentiation. Integrating range-wide genetic data with biophysical modeling based on 10 years of ocean current data showed that ocean currents and the distance between populations over water drive gene flow patterns on broad scales. Directional migration estimates suggested some significant asymmetries in gene flow that also were mediated by ocean currents and distance. Specifically, populations in the center of the range (Florida Keys) were identified as sinks that received migrants (and alleles) from other populations but failed to export individuals. These populations thus harbor genetic variation, perhaps even from extirpated populations across the range, but ocean currents and complex arrangements of landmasses might prevent the distribution of that genetic variation elsewhere. Hence, the inherent asymmetry of ocean currents shown to impact both genetic differentiation and directional migration rates may be responsible for the complex distribution of genetic variation across the range and observed patterns of metapopulation structure.
... However, recent genomic analyses have indicated that gene flow might not be as large of a constraint as once feared because even relatively weak selection against immigrants prevents poorly adapted alleles from establishing-particularly when there are locally adapted modifications to the whole genome (e.g., inversions, Tigano & Friesen, 2016). An alternative mechanism by which gene flow could influence adaptation to climate change is when immigration introduces beneficial alleles that arose in other populations (Kling & Ackerly, 2020;Kremer et al., 2012;Sexton et al., 2011). For instance, Bontrager and Angert (2019) simulated gene flow in wildflowers and found that populations exchanging migrants between similar warming conditions had fitter offspring than populations with no gene flow or than populations exchanging migrants between divergent warming conditions. ...
Decades of research have illuminated the underlying ingredients that determine the scope of evolutionary responses to climate change. The field of evolutionary biology therefore stands ready to take what it has learned about influences upon the rate of adaptive evolution—such as population demography, generation time, and standing genetic variation—and apply it to assess if and how populations can evolve fast enough to “keep pace” with climate change. Here, our review highlights what the field of evolutionary biology can contribute and what it still needs to learn to provide more mechanistic predictions of the winners and losers of climate change. We begin by developing broad predictions for contemporary evolution to climate change based on theory. We then discuss methods for assessing climate‐driven contemporary evolution, including quantitative genetic studies, experimental evolution, and space‐for‐time substitutions. After providing this mechanism‐focused overview of both the evidence for evolutionary responses to climate change and more specifically, evolving to keep pace with climate change, we next consider the factors that limit actual evolutionary responses. In this context, we consider the dual role of phenotypic plasticity in facilitating but also impeding evolutionary change. Finally, we detail how a deeper consideration of evolutionary constraints can improve forecasts of responses to climate change and therefore also inform conservation and management decisions.
This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Observed Ecological Changes
Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
