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This paper studied hydrological drought identified by the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) at eight river-gauging stations in the Eastern Mediterranean part of Turkey for a roughly 43-year period covering from 1972 to 2014 (4 stations), from 1973 to 2015 (2 stations), and from 1969 to 2011 (2 stations). Results of SDI analyses indicate that the numbe...
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Citations
... As a result of the study, drought-risk maps were created, and drought situations that could be experienced in certain periods were specified. Altın et al. (2020) conducted a drought analysis with the data of the stations located in the Seyhan and Ceyhan Basins of Turkey. They also examined the tendency of drought. ...
The impacts of climate change increasingly show themselves in many forms in our everyday lives such as heatwaves and droughts. Drought is one of the critical events today for increasing drought frequency. This study focuses on meteorological drought because it directly affects other drought types. Hence, this study focuses on how the future drought conditions will vary under climate change effects in the Mediterranean basin (Turkey). In doing so, this study utilizes precipitation data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The GCMs are CNRM-CM6, GFDL-CM4, and MPI-ESM1, while the RCMs are (RCA4)-CNRM-CM5, (Reg CM4)-GFDL-ESM2M, and (RCA4)-MPI-ESM-MR. Mitigating biases of the climate models, this study utilizes four statistical downscaling methods (SD), linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), and distribution mapping (DM). Here, the study has two purposes. The main aim of the paper here is to compare the performance of SD methods in improving the representation of observed climate variables in climate models. In addition, the study shows how different methods will affect the spatial drought distribution in the area under the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. Consequently, the study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Z-score index (ZSI) to quantify future drought conditions and reaches the following results. The study reveals that mild drought conditions are prevalent in the basin for future periods, and drought indices go down to − 0.55. The study also shows that different SD methods affect the results obtained by each climate model diversely. For example, while the LS method causes the most drought conditions on the results based on CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM6, the DM method has a similar impact on outcomes based on GFDL-CM4 and GFDL-ESM2M and causes the most drought conditions.
... In addition to this practical need, this study also serves the purpose of validating the streamflow drought index (SDI) in topographic and climatic settings not previously considered (Nalbantis and Tsakiris 2009). SDI is reasonably validated in different parts of temperate and tropical regions, for example, in Greece (Nalbantis and Tsakiris 2009), in Turkey (Altin et al. 2019), andin Brazil (Melo et al. 2016). However, it has not been validated as much in semi-arid basins and catchments such as the Gereb-Geba river catchments, which are characterized by a complex topographic landscape and hydrological system. ...
Evaluating the flood and drought hazards provides vital information for sustainable water resources management, particularly in semi-arid, water-deficit environments. Most prior studies were limited in exploring the flood and drought hazards, which are important for early warning systems and preparedness. This study characterized the hydrological extreme hazards on the Gereb-Geba reservoir, namely the Suluh, Genfel, and Agula rivers. Flood frequency analysis was performed using the fitted flood frequency distribution in MATLAB. The 2D hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS was implemented to produce a flood-inundation map. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), respectively. Using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), the estimated flood magnitude showed an increasing tendency in all the rivers across all the return periods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-years). The reservoir inundated an area of 12.8 km² at an elevation of 1830 m.a.s.l. with a water depth of 80 m at the outlet. Suluh experienced more severe to extreme hydrological drought episodes than the Agula and Genfel rivers. Severe to extreme meteorological droughts were also observed in the respective catchments. Moreover, severe agricultural drought prevalence was also detected across all the river catchments. This study provides vital and comprehensive flood and drought information for water resources planning, management, and development.
... Given the importance of climate change impacts across the Mediterranean basins, several studies have assessed both short-and long-term changes in hydrometeorological indicators and drought risk in this region (e.g., [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]). Focusing on Türkiye, a comprehensive review of drought assessment across the country has been conducted recently [7]. ...
... In this study, climate variability across the Ceyhan River basin (Türkiye) was examined for the first time using historical rainfall and temperature observations recorded at 15 meteorology stations during the period 1975-2014. The Ceyhan River basin is already suffering from climate variability [24]. To this end, various statistical and geo-statistical techniques were used to determine the significance of the trends for each climatic variable. ...
... This argument supports our finding that the northern part of the basin exhibits greater temperature variations throughout the months of the year, particularly in comparison to the central and southern regions. Furthermore, ref. [24] reported that a strong negative trend in hydrological drought was observed from the early 2000s to 2011 in both the Seyhan and Ceyhan River basins. Regarding rainfall amounts, our study showed that the second period (i.e., [1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990][1991][1992][1993][1994] was the driest decade. ...
In the Anti-Atlas belt, the Saghro massif stands out as the most promising area for exploring bases and precious metals. It serves as a noteworthy example of effectively utilizing various geological layers by employing fuzzy logic operators to predict new targets and identify potential mining zones in this region. This paper demonstrates the integration of geoscience datasets in a GIS system, enabling the identification of significant targets for mineral exploration. The geo-information layers utilized included Neoproterozoic acid volcanic and intrusive rocks, hydrothermal alterations, faults, zones of structural complexity, geochemical anomalies, and mineral occurrences. The results highlighted that the boundary between the Neoproterozoic basement and its Paleozoic cover presents a crucial target for discovering mineral deposits and identifying new polymetallic mineralization zones with significant mining potential. Eight favorable zones have been identified, indicating the presence of Cu–Ag–Pb polymetallic mineralization and Ag–Hg mineralization associated with the late Neoproterozoic acid volcanic rocks of the Ouarzazate group. The outcomes of this study are invaluable for mineral exploration, serving as essential guidance for mining prospectors and advanced metallogenic investigation programs in the northeastern part of the Moroccan Saghro massif.
... Given the importance of climate change impacts across the Mediterranean basins, several studies have assessed both short-and long-term changes in hydrometeorological indicators and drought risk in this region (e.g., [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]). Focusing on Türkiye, a comprehensive review of drought assessment across the country has been conducted recently [7]. ...
... In this study, climate variability across the Ceyhan River basin (Türkiye) was examined for the first time using historical rainfall and temperature observations recorded at 15 meteorology stations during the period 1975-2014. The Ceyhan River basin is already suffering from climate variability [24]. To this end, various statistical and geo-statistical techniques were used to determine the significance of the trends for each climatic variable. ...
... This argument supports our finding that the northern part of the basin exhibits greater temperature variations throughout the months of the year, particularly in comparison to the central and southern regions. Furthermore, ref. [24] reported that a strong negative trend in hydrological drought was observed from the early 2000s to 2011 in both the Seyhan and Ceyhan River basins. Regarding rainfall amounts, our study showed that the second period (i.e., [1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990][1991][1992][1993][1994] was the driest decade. ...
This study examined the spatiotemporal climate variability over the Ceyhan River basin in Southern Anatolia, Türkiye using historical rainfall and temperature observations recorded at 15 meteorology stations. Various statistical and geostatistical techniques were employed to determine the significance of trends for each climatic variable in the whole basin and its three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern regions). The results revealed that the recent years in the basin were generally warmer compared with previous years, with a temperature increase of approximately 4 °C. The standardized temperature index analysis indicated a shift towards hotter periods after 2005, while the coldest periods were observed in the early 1990s. The spatial distribution of temperature showed non-uniform patterns throughout the basin. The first decade of the study period (1975–1984) was characterized by relatively cold temperatures, followed by a transition period from cold to hot between 1985 and 2004, and a hotter period in the last decade (2005–2014). The rainfall analysis indicated a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, particularly in the northern and central regions of the basin. However, the southern region showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall during the study period. The spatial distribution of rainfall exhibited considerable variability across the basin, with different regions experiencing distinct patterns. The standardized precipitation index analysis revealed the occurrence of multiple drought events throughout the study period. The most severe and prolonged droughts were observed in the years 1992–1996 and 2007–2010. These drought events had significant impacts on water availability and agricultural productivity in the basin.
... Altın and Altın [84] collected data on streamflow and precipitation from seven stream gauging stations and five meteorological stations over the period from 1967 to 2017. The MD and HD occurrences were investigated by using SPI and SSI indices for the eastern Mediterranean basin. ...
Drought is the consequence of a significant decline in the hydrological variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow that undesirably affects all living beings. There are various indices for drought monitoring and assessment that can identify the characteristics of drought, such as magnitude, severity, and duration. They are obtained from hydro-meteorological indicators, such as precipitation, temperature, runoff, soil moisture, reservoir storage, and groundwater level. Some indices are more appropriate than others for certain circumstances, such as the location of the study area, drought type, and availability of data. With the development of meteorological satellites and RS technology on the one hand and the emergence of data-mining techniques on the other hand, a lot of research has been conducted in the field of drought monitoring and forecasting (DMF) using these technologies.
... Altın and Altın [84] collected data on streamflow and precipitation from seven stream gauging stations and five meteorological stations over the period from 1967 to 2017. The MD and HD occurrences were investigated by using SPI and SSI indices for the eastern Mediterranean basin. ...
One of the critical consequences of climate change at both local and regional scales is a change in the patterns of extreme climate events such as droughts. Focusing on the different types of droughts, their quantifying indices, associated indicators, and sources of data (remote sensing (RS)/in situ measurements), this article reviewed the recent studies (from 2010 to 2022) that have explored drought features in Turkey. To this end, a total of 71 articles were selected from the Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases. The selected papers were clustered into two categories: (i) drought monitoring studies and (ii) drought forecasting articles. Then, the representative papers were reviewed in detail regarding the implemented indices, models (techniques), case study area, and source of the indicators used to derive drought indices. The review results showed that most of the studies aimed at meteorological drought monitoring and forecasting. An increasing trend was also observed in the use of machine learning for short-term meteorological and hydrological drought prediction. On the other hand, the emerging RS technology and satellite-driven indicators were rarely used in the country. The review showed that there is room for more research on agricultural and hydrological drought monitoring, forecasting, and pattern detection in Turkey.
... [170][171][172][173] S∼ao Francisco River Decreased Precipitation Drought with reduction in electricity generation [174][175][176] northern Amazon and the southern la Plata basin Increased Precipitation increased wind and moisture flux, with and a decrease in the precipitation in the northern la Plata basin [178,179] The Nordics and the Baltics Norway Hydropower plants Increases streamflow Future trends are expected to include an increase in precipitation, a rise in autumn discharge, and an increase in winter discharges with earlier snowmelt. [98,180,181] eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) streamflow increase, earlier snowmelt and precipitation increase increase in winter discharge, with a decrease in spring floods [182,183] The Mediterranean and Turkey Eastern Turkey (Mediterranean Llobregat River basin) precipitation decrease Droughts [184,185] Australia Mainly concentrated in the Southeast ...
This paper discusses the increasing demand for energy due to population growth and civilization's rapid development and the negative impacts of using fossil fuels to generate energy, including greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. It highlights the vulnerability of the energy industry to climate change and its negative consequences on people's health. Developing countries have implemented plans to generate secure electric energy through renewable energy resources (RER) and have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions. The paper presents hydropower as a reliable alternative to fossil fuels and discusses its potential in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonizing the energy system. It also highlights the impact of climate change on hydropower and the need for global modeling of social, economic, and environmental aspects to provide sustainable RER. The paper provides evidence to support the claims made and highlights the significance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change on the energy industry and the environment.
... They also stated that out of 2 stations decreasing trends were recorded in both dry and wet terms accepting the 0 value as a threshold in the assessment. Altin et al. [30] have made a study about determining drought intensity by hydrological drought analysis in Seyhan and Ceyhan Rivers, Türkiye. They employed the analysis using the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and 43-year period data, which ranges from 1972 to 2014 in 4 stations, from 1973 to 2015 in 2 stations, and from 1969 to 2011 in 2 stations for 3, 6, 9, and 12-month overlapping periods. ...
Drought is a natural disaster that is generally defined as precipitations which are significantly below the precipitation recorded in normal times. Drought has been classified as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic by many researchers. Hydrological drought takes place when deficiencies in the surface and ground waters occur as a result of the long-term lack of precipitation. In this study, a hydrological drought analysis has been performed for Kızılırmak Basin which is the second biggest basin of Turkey by using streamflow drought index (SDI) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12-month. Monthly mean streamflow records of 7 stations are obtained from the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSİ). Drought severity and drought duration which is two important drought characteristics have been calculated for each time scale with their occurrence term. Results have shown that Mild Drought and Wet (SDI≥0) have the highest percentage of occurrences. Using Run Theory, the longest lasted and highest drought has been noted in the SDI-12-time scale of E15A017 station with 149.72 and 103 months as severity and duration, respectively. From the highest severity and longest lasted droughts, it is seen that starting with 2000, the basin is exposed to the highest occurrence of droughts. ITA results have shown that in most of the SDI series of any time scale a trend is existent and these trends are mostly decreasing trends. Therefore, the results of this have shown that the basin needs to be kept from the potential effects of droughts with effective water resources management plan.
... The lower drought risk is shown in the northern region for T DS , while a higher drought risk (lower return period) is detected under the mild and moderate drought categories for the T′ DS return period. Some researchers have studied on drought investigation on Ceyhan Basin (Gumus and Algin 2017;Altın et al. 2020;Dikiċi̇ and Aksel 2021;Topçu et al. 2022; Yuce et al. 2022). Yuce and Esit (2021) and Dikiċi̇ and Aksel (2021) observed to compare drought indices on the basin. ...
In recent times, copula families have been mostly employed in bivariate drought duration and severity. Archimedean copulas are mainly used conveniently among various potential families for hydrologic design and water resource management. In this study, drought events are defined by standard precipitation index (SPI3 time series) series for 24-gauge stations in Ceyhan Basin Turkey considering different elevation levels (high, average, and low). Both duration and severity are tested for their dependence with Mann–Kendall and Spearman Rho trend test at a 0.05 significant level. While Gamma and Weibull perform better than the other distributions at average elevation, Log-normal and Weibull distributions are found to fit the DD and DS series better for most stations located in low and high elevations, respectively. The best fit copula is found to construct a joint distribution function. The influence of upper tail dependencies is tested to select the most appropriate copula function. Gumbel and BB1 copulas are often regarded as the best copulas for the DD and DS series, respectively. After acquiring the best fit copula, the joint return periods are modeled for each station. Finally, considering drought risk categories (mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought), spatial distributions of drought risk-return period are constructed. High risks are observed in the middle part of the basin based on TDS and T′DS under mild drought categories. Apart from using univariate frequency analysis, bivariate frequency analysis is performed to model the joint return period based on copula theory which is great of importance for hydrology design and water resource management.
... By the end of this century, it is estimated that the annual surface runoff in Turkish soil will decrease by 26-57%. Since most of the rivers were located in this region, all other countries in the basin are expected to feel the stress of dwindling waters in the twenty-first century (Bozkurt and Sen, 2013;Ozkaya and Zerberg, 2019;Altın et al., 2020;Eris et al., 2020;Aziz et al, 2020). ...
... Many researchers in various parts of Turkey have conducted historical drought analyzes using different drought indices. (Dabanlı et al. 2017;Güner Bacanli 2017;Tosunoglu et al. 2018;Vazifehkhah and Kahya 2019;Turan, 2018;Ozkaya and Zerberg, 2019;Altın et al., 2020;Eris et al., 2020;Aziz et al, 2020). These studies have shown that the effect of drought in the basins increases every year, the basins start to dry up and the effects of drought will be more and more every year. ...
Climate change, which is caused by the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by humans, disrupting the temperature, rainfall, and humidity balance on the earth, makes itself felt more and more every day. The effects of climate change are seen in oceans, habitats, briefly all over the world, from the equator to the poles. With the impacts of these effects, the polar glaciers are melting, the seawater level rises and soil losses increase in the coastal areas, while the severity and number of hurricanes, and floods increase in some parts of the world, while long-term droughts and desertification have started in some other regions. Climate change also affects water resources greatly, and it occurs as a decrease in water resources, forest fires, and related ecological deterioration. As a result of the decrease in the water flow in the river basins, water shortage started in the cities, agricultural production decreased and caused the expansion of arid or semi-arid areas. In this study, the impacts of climate change on Turkish basins were investigated and the measures to be taken were examined. Possible problems to be encountered in the future were mentioned and suggestions were made about what to do in the basins.
