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Gambar 1. Area penelitian di Pulau Sumatera dan Jawa Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan diagram fase MJO, data OLR yang di unduh dari Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), raw data reanalisis kecepatan vertikal, SST dengan resolusi spasial 2.5 0 x 2.5 0 yang di unduh dari National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) serta raw data High-resolution Cloud Analysis Information (HCAI)
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p class="AbstractEnglish"> Abstract: . Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a wave in tropical atmosphere that moving eastward from Indian ocean to Pacific Ocean for a period 30 – 60 days. There are many research that explain when MJO is active in phases 2, 3 and 4 it affects convective activities in the Indonesian Maritime Continent. The purpose of...
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Citations
... While the relation of signs of heavy rain to the MJO phase shows that although none of the events coincided with the MJO phase 6, heavy and very heavy rainfall in June in Purworejo occurred simultaneously with phases 3-4 and 7-8. Many studies say that the increase in rainfall intensity in certain phases of the MJO or vice versa is less significant for the Java area (Hidayat and Kizu, 2010;Arbain, 2012;Arbain et al., 2017;Tallamma et al., 2016;Fajarianti et al., 2018;Suhardi et al., 2018;Lestaria et al., 2019). This study confirms that the effect of the MJO on increasing rainfall is not certain in certain phases. ...
High rainfall intensity in Indonesia, even if it happens during the dry season can cause floods and landslides that cause a lot of loss of property and life, as happened in Purworejo. Generally, the dry season such as June has a little rainfall, and even more, heavy rain is very rare. However, the disaster in Purworejo became an important experience in anticipating disasters by identifying the precursors of extreme rainfall. This research aims to obtain high-intensity rain precursors in the south of Central Java, especially Purworejo. Identification is done using rainfall intensity classification and is related to atmospheric phenomena that affect Indonesian rainfall variability. The results show that if there is very heavy rainfall and evenly distributed, precursors, can be identified 3 days before the incident, such as a low outgoing long radiation (OLR) value of <150 Wm-2. Moreover, in an analysis of the average 3 days before the incident, the value of the OLR anomaly in the Central Java region is between-60 to-20 Wm-2 .Meanwhile, the vertical humidity profile has a value of more than 80% up to a level of 500 Mb, as the temperature value of more than 30.2 °C in the Indian Ocean bordering the southern part of Java Island occurs three to four days before the extreme rain event in Purworejo Regency. This change occurs when the value of the Indian Dipole Mode is negative and the ENSO is neutral. Existing low air pressure in the northern part of Kalimantan and in the southern part of Java, which persists for a long time, can support very heavy rains in June in Purworejo. Especially if the wind speed decreases to less than 4 m/s and occurs in phases 3 and 4 of the MJO. The 20 mm/30-minute rainfall that occurs for 7 hours without stopping needs to be watched out for because it has the potential to cause flash floods in the sandy loam area of Purworejo.
... While the relation of signs of heavy rain to the MJO phase shows that although none of the events coincided with the MJO phase 6, heavy and very heavy rainfall in June in Purworejo occurred simultaneously with phases 3-4 and 7-8. Many studies say that the increase in rainfall intensity in certain phases of the MJO or vice versa is less significant for the Java area (Hidayat and Kizu, 2010;Arbain, 2012;Arbain et al., 2017;Tallamma et al., 2016;Fajarianti et al., 2018;Suhardi et al., 2018;Lestaria et al., 2019). This study confirms that the effect of the MJO on increasing rainfall is not certain in certain phases. ...
High rainfall intensity in Indonesia, even if it happens during the dry season can cause floods and landslides that cause a lot of loss of property and life, as happened in Purworejo. Generally, the dry season such as June has a little rainfall, and even more, heavy rain is very rare. However, the disaster in Purworejo became an important experience in anticipating disasters by identifying the precursors of extreme rainfall. This research aims to obtain high-intensity rain precursors in the south of Central Java, especially Purworejo. Identification is done using rainfall intensity classification and is related to atmospheric phenomena that affect Indonesian rainfall variability. The results show that if there is very heavy rainfall and evenly distributed, precursors, can be identified 3 days before the incident, such as a low outgoing long radiation (OLR) value of <150 Wm-2. Moreover, in an analysis of the average 3 days before the incident, the value of the OLR anomaly in the Central Java region is between-60 to-20 Wm-2 .Meanwhile, the vertical humidity profile has a value of more than 80% up to a level of 500 Mb, as the temperature value of more than 30.2 °C in the Indian Ocean bordering the southern part of Java Island occurs three to four days before the extreme rain event in Purworejo Regency. This change occurs when the value of the Indian Dipole Mode is negative and the ENSO is neutral. Existing low air pressure in the northern part of Kalimantan and in the southern part of Java, which persists for a long time, can support very heavy rains in June in Purworejo. Especially if the wind speed decreases to less than 4 m/s and occurs in phases 3 and 4 of the MJO. The 20 mm/30-minute rainfall that occurs for 7 hours without stopping needs to be watched out for because it has the potential to cause flash floods in the sandy loam area of Purworejo.
