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Resistance factor rating [(A): DEM, (B): slope, (C): land use type, (D): distance to water, (E): distance to railway, (F): distance to highway, (G): distance from main road, (H): distance to first-class road, (I): GDP per capita, (J): Distance to built-up land, (K): MSPA landscape type, (L): Comprehensive resistance level].
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With continuous urbanization and the fragmentation of green areas that affect human well-being, the establishment of a green infrastructure (GI) network is important in future urban planning. As a National Central City, Zhengzhou has a large population and is undergoing rapid economic development, resulting in an urgent demand for green space withi...
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... The PLUS model is a new model for land use simulation based on cellular automata (CA), in which the land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) module integrates the advantages of transformation analysis strategy (TAS) and pattern analysis strategy (PAS) and can better explore the triggers of various types of land use change (LUC) (Yao et al., 2017;Zhang, Zhu, et al., 2022). CA based on multiple random seeds (CARS) module combines CA modeling, stochastic seed generation, and threshold diminishing mechanism to enable the PLUS model to simulate spatiotemporally and dynamically multiple types of patch-level LUC within the constraints of development probabilities (Wei, Abudureheman, et al., 2022). ...
In order to safeguard and restore ecological security in ecologically fragile regions, a regionally appropriate land use structure and ecological security pattern should be constructed. Previous ecological security research models for ecologically fragile areas are relatively homogenous, and it is necessary to establish a multi-modeling framework to consider integrated ecological issues. This study proposes a coupled “PLUS-ESI-Circuit Theory” framework for multi-scenario ecological security assessment of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR). Firstly, the PLUS model was used to complete the simulation of four future development scenarios. Secondly, a new ecological security index (ESI) is constructed by synthesizing ecological service function, ecological health, and ecological risk. Finally, the Circuit Theory is applied to construct the ecological security pattern under multiple scenarios, and the optimization strategy of ecological security zoning is proposed. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2030, the NHAR has about 80% of grassland and farmland. The built-up area is consistently growing. (2) Between 2000 and 2030, high ecological security areas are primarily located in Helan Mountain, Liupan Mountain, and the central part of NHAR, while the low ecological security areas are dominated by Shapotou District and Yinchuan City. (3) After 2010, the aggregation of high-security areas decreases, and the fragmentation of patches is obvious. Landscape fragmentation would increase under the economic development (ED) scenario and would be somewhat ameliorated by the ecological protection (EP) and balanced development (BD) scenarios. (4) The number of sources increases but the area decreases from 2000 to 2020. The quantity of ecological elements is on the rise. Ecological restoration and protection of this part of the country will improve its ecological security.
... (1) Domain weights indicate the intensity of land type conversion to other land types [36] and are calculated in this paper based on previous land use data with the following equation: (5) Where: X i is the domain weight parameter of the i-th land type, range 0~1; TA i is the area of land use type change in the study interval; TA max , TA min denote the maximum and minimum values of land use type change in the study interval, respectively. The calculated weights are shown in Table 2. ...
... Morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) is an image processing technique employed by Vogt and other researchers to assess, identify, and segment the spatial patterns in raster images. This method is based on mathematical morphology principles such as erosion, expansion, opening operation, and closing operation structure [17,53]. MSPA can reflect the structural connectivity of corridors [54] and is an effective way to analyze ecological networks. ...
Ecological corridors can improve the connectivity between different habitat regions, ultimately halting the loss of biodiversity and habitat fragmentation. Building ecological corridors is a crucial step in protecting biodiversity. Ecological corridors had previously been built primarily on nature reserves, ignoring ecosystem services. In this study, a novel approach to building ecological corridors is put forth that takes into account a variety of ecosystem services, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and connectivity methodologies to identify significant ecological sources. Ecological corridors and significant strategic nodes are created based on the minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) and circuit theory in order to construct the Yangtze River Delta’s ecological security pattern. The research found that: (1) the identified ecological sources are 90,821.84 km2, and the total length of ecological corridors is 4704.03 km. (2) In total, 141 ecological restoration areas are identified, with a total area of 2302.77 km2; 151 ecological protection areas are identified, with a total area of 5303.43 km2. This study can provide valuable insights into the establishment of ecological patterns and the construction of priority restoration and protection areas in the ecological restoration of the Yangtze River Delta.
... Most of the existing research on landscape connectivity is concerned with the construction and optimization of regional ecological networks [48,49]. However, most existing studies use municipal boundaries or complete geographic units as the study area, using data at large and medium scales. ...
... This study adopts a method based on the ecological safety index, which is constructed from the background characteristics of the ecological environment and the potential threats to it. Commonly used ecological security constraints include elevation, slope, landscape type, vegetation cover, distance from water bodies, distance from roads and distance from residential areas in combination with each ecological safety constraint factor [48,49,58]. The SPCA and expert scoring methods are used to evaluate and classify the ecological safety level of a specific area. ...
... In this study, a comprehensive resistance index system was constructed based on two resistance factors: natural conditions and human interference ( Table 1). The DEM, slope, distance to water bodies and land cover type were selected to represent the resistance factors of natural conditions in the area [49]. The human interference factor is expressed as the distance to the road and built-up land [48]. ...
In recent years, China has put forward comprehensive land consolidation projects to solve problems in rural areas, such as cultivated land fragmentation, scattered spatial pattern of construction land and ecological environment pollution, and boost the rural revitalization strategy. Constructing ecological networks is important for maintaining ecological security. This study built an ecological network using morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) method and minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) models to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics and ecological security pattern. Finally, it was optimized by analyzing ecological network indices and using two methods of adding additional ecological sources and stepping stones. The results show that ecological sources and ecological corridors for three phases are located in the central and northern parts with an uneven distribution. In fact, adding new ecological sources is more efficient in balancing the ecological pattern of a study area. The ecological network indices α, β, γ and C values increased by 15.3%, 8.4%, 8.5% and 3.3%, respectively. Constructing and optimizing an ecological network is expected to provide scientific basis for small-scale landscape design, provide theoretical reference for spatial pattern optimization of comprehensive land consolidation projects and coordination of regional development and ecological protection.
... To predict patch evolution for different land use types, a multi-type random plate seeding mechanism based on threshold reduction was applied in the PLUS model. The Monte Carlo method was utilized to determine the probability surface of each land use type (P i, k 1 ) when the neighborhood effect k was zero (Zhang et al., 2022b): ...
... This restricted both the organic and spontaneous growth of all land use types. If a new land use type wins a round of competition, a decreasing threshold τ was utilized to determine the candidate land use type c that was selected by the roulette wheel (Zhang et al., 2022b): ...
... This was also confirmed by Zhang et al. (2022c). Compared with the traditional land use simulation prediction, this study set up different land use development scenarios (Zhang et al., 2022b), which provided a more comprehensive theoretical reference for the formulation and development of land use policies. ...
Carbon dioxide emissions are the main drivers of global warming and extreme weather disasters caused by global warming have posed a threat to sustainable development and even to human survival. Land use has an important impact on carbon emissions and carbon storage. This study quantified land use carbon emissions, constructed land use carbon emission grid, and simulated future land use patterns under different scenarios in China during 2000–2018. Land use carbon emissions were found to increase by 400.29% in this period and were higher in the northeast. We discerned obvious spatial correlations between land use carbon emissions in various provinces of China and thus, recommended stronger inter-provincial cooperation in China to achieve overall emission reduction in the country. The carbon emissions spatial correlation network revealed that regions with superior economic and geographical location were in the center of the network. Compared with the carbon emissions in 2018, the simulated natural development scenario and ecological protection scenario indicated that the China's land use carbon emissions decreased in 2030. Thus, the results indicate that the individual provincial governance mode overlooked the spatial correlation between land use carbon emissions across various provinces, due to which these carbon emissions were not effectively reduced. The study highlighted the importance of ecological land protection, which is significant for promoting sustainable land use, increasing land use carbon sink, and reducing carbon emissions.
... In particular, overfitting should be avoided, and the number of regression trees should be appropriately reduced to reduce the expansion coefficient, to reduce the generation of new land use patches. The results show that the kappa coefficient and FOM values characterizing the simulation accuracy are 0.79 and 0.14, respectively, and the simulation results are acceptable [40,41]. ...
Adjusting land use is a practical way to protect the ecosystem, but protecting water resources by optimizing land use is indirect and complex. The vegetation, soil, and rock affected by land use are important components of forming the water cycle and obtaining clean water sources. The focus of this study is to discuss how to optimize the demands and spatial patterns of different land use types to strengthen ecological and water resources protection more effectively. This study can also provide feasible watershed planning and policy suggestions for managers, which is conducive to the integrity of the river ecosystem and the sustainability of water resources. A watershed-scale land use planning framework integrating a hydrological model and a land use model is established. After quantifying the water retention value of land use types through a hydrological model, a multi-objective land use demands optimization model under various development scenarios is constructed. Moreover, a regional study was completed in the source area of the Songhua River in Northeast China to verify the feasibility of the framework. The results show that the method can be used to optimize land use requirements and obtain future land use maps. The water retention capacity of forestland is strong, about 2500–3000 m3/ha, and there are differences among different forest types. Planning with a single objective of economic development will expand the area of cities and cultivated land, and occupy forests, while multi-objective planning considering ecological and water source protection tends to occupy cultivated land. In the management of river headwaters, it is necessary to establish important forest reserves and strengthen the maintenance of restoration forests. Blindly expanding forest area is not an effective way to protect river headwaters. In conclusion, multi-objective land use planning can effectively balance economic development and water resources protection, and find the limits of urban expansion and key areas of ecological barriers.
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is a highly urbanized region in China that faces significant challenges in land use management. These challenges include the decrease in agricultural and ecological land resulting from rapid urbanization, the effectiveness of government governance, and the trajectory of development, all of which warrant careful research examination. Moreover, existing studies on land use in the PRD predominantly rely on static historical analysis, lacking a multi-scenario simulation approach. This study examines land use in PRD using a Patch-Generating Simulation (PLUS), from 1985 to 2020 to address this gap. Three scenarios were established to simulate potential land use outcomes in the PRD by 2030: spontaneous change, cropland protection, and ecological protection. The findings reveal that cropland, forest, and impervious surfaces are the dominant land use types in the PRD. From 1985 to 2020, the proportion of cropland decreased from 37.63% to 27.40%, with most conversions occurring to impervious surfaces and forest land. The proportion of impervious surfaces increased from 1.81% to 12.57%, primarily from conversions of cropland, forest, and water bodies. Economic development, population growth, accessibility, climatic factors, and topographic conditions were shown to be the primary determinants of land use in the PRD. Modelling results suggest that under the spontaneous change scenario, cropland and ecological land decrease, while impervious surfaces expand significantly, threatening cropland preservation and ecological construction. However, under the cropland protection scenario, the conversion rate of cropland to other land types can be effectively controlled, contributing to efficient preservation. Under the ecological protection scenario, impervious infrastructure encroachment on ecological land can be mitigated, but cropland protection is limited. The study proposes cropland protection and ecological priority policies to optimize the structure of land use, enhance efficiency, and offer policy guidance for the efficient utilization of land resources and the preservation of the ecological environment in the PRD.
In the context of urban expansion and climate change, the world is under pressure from multiple ecological risks. Key ecological protection areas play a pivotal role in preserving ecological stability and promoting development. Due to its unique geographical conditions, the Yellow River basin has been facing huge ecological risk pressure. In the affected area of the Lower Yellow River (AALYR) as an agricultural hub, ecological protection has gradually become a key factor restricting the development of cities and agriculture. Taking AALYR as an example, the landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) system is established based on three aspects “natural environment—human society—landscape pattern”. We construct a comprehensive cumulative resistance surface based on the risk assessment results as the basis for the future study. Ecological corridors are identified by minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) models to establish and optimize Ecological security pattern (ESP) in the AALYR. We found that the landscape ecological risks (LER) in the study area show a uniform spatial distribution, with a slightly higher distribution in the northeast than the southwest. The ecological risk levels are generally high in AALYR, indicating a more severe risk problem in this area. A total of 56 ecological sources were identified, with a total area of 21176 km². The ecological sensitivity of AALYR was high, and 99 ecological corridors and 59 ecological nodes were extracted. Ecological corridors and nodes were consistently and densely distributed throughout the study area. The network analysis method improves the stability of the network structure after optimization. Based on the key components of the ESP, with the combination of geographical characteristics and local policy planning guidance, we constructed the “One Belt and One Axis, Two Cores and Two Corridors, Four zones” ESP. The study results may offer guidance and suggestions for the construction of ESP and ecological environment protection system in the world’s major river basins, and may also provide information for ecological planning of other similar river basins in the world.
