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Fundamental concepts of the Demographic Transition Theory based on the illustrations presented by Montgomery (n.d.) and by van de Kaa (2001, 2002).
Source publication
In the absence of convincing evidence, data for Sweden and Mauritius are used in academic publications to illustrate the Demographic Transition Theory. These data are closely examined and found to be in clear contradiction of this theory. Demographic Transition Theory is also contradicted by the best available data for England. Other examples of co...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... have already mentioned certain features of the Demographic Transition Theory but in order to understand the discussed examples for Sweden, Mauritius and England we shall now present its brief outline. Its general concepts are illustrated in Figure 1. In this figure, 1 represents hypothetical birth rate, 2 hypothetical death rate, 3 the corresponding rate of natural growth (the difference between 1 and 2, generally the same as the growth rate) and 4 the growth of population. ...
Context 2
... first clear outline of this theory is attributed to Notestein (1945). Its fundamental concepts illustrated in Figure 1 are based on the illustration prepared by Montgomery (n.d) and by van de Kaa (2001Kaa ( , 2002. ...
Context 3
... for Sweden (Statistics Sweden, 1999), used repeatedly in support of the Demographic Transition Theory, are displayed in Figure 2. These data appear to be in support of the four stages of growth (cf Figure 1): Stage 1 with its large and strongly fluctuating birth and death rates; Stage 2 with its widening gap between the average values of birth and death rates; Stage 3 with its decreasing difference between the birth and death rates; and Stage 4 with its low and nearly equal birth and death rates. These data show also the gradually decreasing fluctuations in birth and death rates. ...
Citations
... The adjusted ratio would rise slightly, from 0.3 ± 0.1 to 0.5 ± 0.1, in conjunction with all prior adjustments to the ratio, including the exclusion of oil palm (Table 1 Adjustment 5a). The ratio would rise more Trends in births, deaths, growth (natural increase), and population are based on illustrations in Nielsen 82 . Births, deaths, and growth are expressed as rates, i.e., people per 100 people. ...
Recent satellite estimates suggest that planted tree cover rivals, and possibly exceeds, the area of natural reforestation pantropically, challenging longstanding models of forest change. Such estimates underscore a tension between studies of reforestation as an areal expansion of undifferentiated forest cover versus dynamic land-change processes by which forest variously emerges in transformed states. A review of land-change processes bearing on the nature of reforestation would qualify the relative prevalence of planted tree cover, but with caveats. Planted tree cover would be less than half the nominal extent of natural reforestation if including the 29-61% of natural reforestation re-cleared within 15 years and excluding the 25-50% of planted tree-cover entailing extant forest conversion. Planted tree cover would however be comparable to natural reforestation if also discounting the 31-52% of natural reforestation that similarly follows from forest conversion. Satellite-based estimations of reforestation area may now, and should, incorporate such qualifying land-change processes by borrowing from demographic models of population change and including ‘spurious’ reforestation integral to the broader processes of reforestation of interest.
... It is my aim now to analyse mathematically distributions describing recent anthropogenic signatures in order to understand their dynamics. In my analysis I shall use the excellent compilation of data prepared and published by Ludwig (2014), with the exception of the data describing the growth of population and economic growth, because in the past few years I have carried out extensive investigation of these issues (Nielsen, 2014(Nielsen, , 2015(Nielsen, , 2016a(Nielsen, , 2016b(Nielsen, , 2016c(Nielsen, , 2016d(Nielsen, , 2016e, 2016f, 2016g, 2016h, 2016i, 2016j, 2016k, 2016l, 2016m, 2016n, 2016o, 2016p, 2017a(Nielsen, , 2017b(Nielsen, , 2017c(Nielsen, , 2017d. All this research was essential for the correct understanding of the Anthropocene. ...
Distributions of anthropogenic signatures (impacts and activities) are mathematically analysed. The aim is to understand the Anthropocene and to see whether anthropogenic signatures could be used to determine its beginning. A total of 23 signatures were analysed and results are presented in 31 diagrams. Some of these signatures contain undistinguishable natural component but most of them are of purely anthropogenic origin. Great care was taken to identify abrupt accelerations, which could be used to determine the beginning of the Anthropocene. Results of the analysis can be summarised in three conclusions. 1. Anthropogenic signatures cannot be used to determine the beginning of the Anthropocene. 2. There was no abrupt Great Acceleration around 1950 or around any other time. 3. Anthropogenic signatures are characterised by the Great Deceleration in the second half of the 20th century. The Great Deceleration indicates a gradual progress towards a sustainable future.
... estão longe de ser irrelevantes ou despropositadas. Aliás, se aqueles que consideram a teoria de TD uma história de ficção e de fantasmas, rica em desinformação mas pobre em ciência (Abernethy, 1995;Nielsen, 2016Nielsen, , 2015b) estiverem certos, eventualmente encontrarão a maneira de demonstrar à comunidades de demógrafos que a TD não passa de mais uma ilusão óptica, como as que foram referidas no início deste artigo. Afinal de contas, são muitas as questões que continuam abertas à investigação, tais como: a chamada transição da estagnação malthusiana para o desenvolvimento pós-malthusiano ecologicamente compatível e sustentável (Deutsch, 2011, pp. ...
... Afinal de contas, são muitas as questões que continuam abertas à investigação, tais como: a chamada transição da estagnação malthusiana para o desenvolvimento pós-malthusiano ecologicamente compatível e sustentável (Deutsch, 2011, pp. 434-436;Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 2016;Galor, 2011;Nielsen, 2016Nielsen, , 2015b; os mal-entendidos sobre o crescimento hiperbólico tão extensivamente tomado como exponencial; os aparentes efeitos positivos do melhor estado de saúde no crescimento económico, na fase inicial da TD, desvendados assim que os critérios definidores de "pré-transição" e "pós-transição" da fecundidade foram melhor operacionalizados Sunde, 2015, 2009b;Sunde and Cervellati, 2012); o potencial de conflitos sociais na forma como os países numa fase incipiente de transição demográfica lidam com o seu subdesenvolvimento económico e demográfico (Akaev et al., 2012;Bandeira, 1996;Blue and Espenshade, 2011;Bongaarts, 2009;Francisco, 2016a;Hopfenberg, 2014;Kapitza, 2009Kapitza, , 2009Kobelev and Nugaeva, 2000;Korotayev et al., 2011;Lee, 2015;Lee and Reher, 2011;McNicoll, 2013;Nielsen, 2015aNielsen, , 2015bReher, 2011;Shin, 2013). ...
Respondendo de forma sintética à pergunta enunciada no título: a TDM é mito ou realidade? Para quem a TD não passa de uma fan- tasia ou construção ilusória generalizada pelos demográficos, a TD moçambicana é um mito, tanto na teoria como na prática. Para os que de- fendem que só tem sentido falar de TD quando a transição da fecundidade é uma realidade, a TDM ainda é uma expectativa dos demógrafos, e um mito na sociedade em geral. Finalmente, para quem, como o autor deste ar- tigo, entende a TD acima de tudo como um processo real (razão pela qual a sua teoria ou modelo estilizado são apelativos e relevantes, mesmo quando não se confirmam empiricamente), a TDM, ainda que incipiente, já é uma realidade em Moçambique. Se a sociedade moçambicana não for capaz de se superar, Moçambique converter-se-á num país em vias de sub- desenvolvimento, em vez de um país em vias de desenvolvimento. Apesar disso, a sociedade não poderá deixar de procurar janelas de oportunidade para que a transição da fecundidade emerja e se concretize, através: da emi- gração de pessoas dispostas estabelecer-se e investir em Moçambique; da importação de ideias, tecnologia e valores modernos. Tais janelas de opor- tunidade precisam de ser mais e melhor investigadas e debatidas ampla- mente em público.
... I want to suggest an alternative method of analysis of time-dependent series and of forecasting, the method based on the mathematical analysis of growth rates. The proposed method is supported by the fundamental observation that fluctuations and oscillation in the growth rates have no essential impact on the associated trends [4] [5]. The analysis of growth rates can be significantly simplified. ...
Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures.
... Economic growth was sustained in the past because it followed steadily-increasing hyperbolic trajectories. Takeoffs, which are supposed to represent the claimed transitions from stagnation to growth, never happened (Nielsen, 2014(Nielsen, , 2015a(Nielsen, , 2016a(Nielsen, , 2016b(Nielsen, , 2016c(Nielsen, , 2016d). ...
... Why did we devote so much time for the discussion of Galor's Unified Growth Theory (Nielsen, 2014(Nielsen, , 2015a(Nielsen, , 2016a(Nielsen, , 2016b(Nielsen, , 2016c(Nielsen, , 2016d? One of the obvious reasons is that the aim of any scientific investigation is to discover the truth. ...
... Recently, economic growth and the growth of human population started to be diverted to slower trajectories but these new trajectories continue to increase close to the historical hyperbolic trajectories. Analysis of data shows that not only the Unified Growth Theory but also the Demographic Transition Theory, which is based on similar assumptions, is repeatedly contradicted by empirical evidence (Nielsen, 2016c). ...
The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as one of the mind-boggling and unresolved mysteries about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened. It was created by the manipulation of data. Economic growth in various regions is at different levels of development but it follows similar, non-divergent trajectories. Unified Growth Theory is not only scientifically unacceptable but also potentially dangerous because by promoting erroneous concepts it diverts attention from the urgent need to control the fast-increasing growth of income per capita. The distorted presentation of data supporting the concept of the great divergence shows that most regions follow the gently-increasing trajectories describing the growth of income per capita but mathematical analysis of data and even their undistorted presentations show that these trajectories are now increasing approximately vertically with time. So, while the distorted presentation of data used in the Unified Growth Theory suggests sustainable and secure economic growth, the undistorted presentation of data demonstrates that the growth is unsustainable and insecure. The concept of takeoffs from stagnation to the sustained-growth regime promoted in the Unified Growth Theory is also dangerously misleading because it suggests a sustainable and prosperous future while the mathematical analysis of data shows that the current economic growth is dangerously insecure and unsustainable.
... They also did not exist in the growth of human population (Nielsen, 2016c(Nielsen, , 2016d. Demographic Transition Theory, the only theory used by demographers to explain the historical growth of human population, also claims the existence of Malthusian stagnation followed by a dramatic takeoff from stagnation to growth but this theory is repeatedly contradicted by data (Nielsen, 2016e). ...
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. They demonstrate
convincingly that the takeoffs from stagnation to growth, claimed in the
Unified Growth Theory, never happened. This theory is again contradicted by
data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during its formulation. The
absence of the claimed takeoffs demonstrates also that the postulate of the
differential takeoffs is contradicted by data.
... First, it is a theory, which is firmly supported by traditional assumptions about the historical economic growth and about the historical growth of human population, assumptions, which are based on strongly questionable conjectures. Our primary aim here, as well as in our earlier publications (Nielsen, 2014(Nielsen, , 2015a(Nielsen, , 2016a(Nielsen, , 2016b(Nielsen, , 2016c(Nielsen, , 2016d, is not just to test the validity of this theory or the validity of a similar Demographic Transition Theory (see Nielsen, 2016e and references therein) but to test the validity of the fundamental postulates used in economic and demographic research. Second, Unified Growth Theory appears to be the only theory where Maddison's data (Maddison, 2001) were systematically used. ...
Data describing the historical growth of human population global and regional (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America) are analysed. Results are in harmony with the earlier analysis of the historical growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and with a similar but limited study carried out over 50 years ago. This analysis is also in harmony with the study of the historical economic growth. Within the range of analysable data, there was no Malthusian stagnation. Takeoffs from stagnation to growth, postulated by the Unified Growth Theory never happened. There were no escapes from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap. This analysis and the earlier studies of the Gross Domestic Product lead to the conclusion that there were also no takeoffs in the income per capita distributions, claimed by the Unified Growth Theory. Consequently, the claimed in this theory differential timing in takeoffs never happened. Unified Growth Theory is contradicted yet again by the mathematical analysis of the same data, which were used, but never analysed, during the formulation of this theory. However, this study, as well as the earlier publications on the related topics, shows also that some fundamental postulates used in the economic and demographic research are repeatedly contradicted by the mathematical analysis of data.
O livro propicia ao leitor um conjunto de artigos sobre desenvolvimento e políticas públicas, apresentando distintas nuanças e aspectos, dos mais gerais aos mais específicos. Esses trabalhos foram desenvolvidos no âmbito do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia Regional e Políticas Públicas e visam auxiliar no debate e na construção de um processo de desenvolvimento local que beneficie a sociedade.
Purpose
This study aims to test the Malthusian and Kremer theories by exploring the relationship between population and economic growth in a low middle-income economy of India.
Design/methodology/approach
The autoregressive distributed lag approach is employed based on the nature of time-series data to achieve the study objectives. In this study, regressand is economic growth measured by real GDP, and the regressors are population growth rate, investment, life expectancy and inflation rate from 1980 to 2018.
Findings
Empirical results confirm the applicability of Kremer’s theory. In this theory, population growth has a significant and positive impact on economic growth in the short and long run. Moreover, investment and life expectancy variables have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas inflation rate has a negative association with economic growth. Empirical results support the population-growth-driven economic growth hypothesis, which indicates that population growth stimulates economic growth and development.
Practical implications
Empirical findings in this study provide guides for management authorities in formulating the right and relatable policies on population growth whilst promoting economic growth and social welfare.
Originality/value
Achieving a desirable level of economic growth is the prime objective of every country. The role of the population in the process of economic growth and development cannot be overlooked. Malthus' and Kremer's views are opposite. Extant literature exhibits that scant research has been carried out on this significant topic in developing countries. Therefore, empirically investigating the effect of population on the growth performance of India as a developing country is necessary and will significantly contribute to the literature.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2019-0496
