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This chapter is a discussion on the concept of threat assessment for the prevention of school shootings, presenting an approach combining threat assessment teams in schools, local interdisciplinary networks, and systematic case assessment and management strategies. The online threat assessment tool DyRiAS is described in detail with two case studie...
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... Threat assessment authorities have posited that there are warning behaviors or behavioral patterns that indicate a person has serious intent to carry out a threat (Meloy, Hoffmann, Guldimann, & James, 2012). Researchers examining incidents of targeted violence within schools and other settings found that most attackers had access to weapons before the violent incident and an obsession with violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Mohandie, 2014;O'Toole, 2000;Vossekuil et al., 2002). Further, students often communicated to a third party about their intent to commit a violent act, a warning behavior commonly known as leakage (Meloy & O'Toole, 2011). ...
Threat assessment is a violence prevention strategy used to investigate and respond to threats to harm others. In 2013, Virginia mandated the use of threat assessment teams for threats to self and to others, effectively subsuming suicide assessment with threat assessment and raising questions about the distinction between the two practices. In a statewide sample of 2,861 cases from 926 schools, there were more threats to self (60%) than others (35%), with only 5% involving threats to both self and others. Threats to self were more likely to be made by females (odds ratio [OR] = 3.38) and students with fewer prior disciplinary actions (OR = 0.48). Threats to self were much less likely to involve a weapon (OR = 0.07), but more likely to be attempted (OR = 1.50) and result in mental health services (OR = 2.96). They were much less likely to result in out‐of‐school suspensions (OR = 0.07), legal action (OR = 0.17), and/or changes in placement (OR = 0.53). Overall, these findings support a clear distinction between suicide and threat assessment.
... Threat assessment authorities have posited that there may be "warning behaviors" or behavioral patterns that indicate a person has serious intent to carry out a threat (Meloy, Hoffmann, Guldimann, & James, 2012). Researchers examining incidents of targeted violence within schools as well as in other settings found that most attackers had access to weapons prior to the violent incident and also exhibited leakage, suicidal ideation, and obsession with violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Mohandie, 2014;O'Toole, 2000;Vossekuil et al., 2002). Attackers also tended to demonstrate more warning behaviors as they moved along a pathway to violence (Meloy et al., 2012). ...
... These individuals were most often (93%) friends, classmates, or siblings; only rarely (17%) did the attackers threaten their intended targets directly. Although direct threats to the intended victims are rare, both leakage and direct threats are warning behaviors that can signify that an attacker is moving along a pathway of violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Meloy, Hoffmann, Roshdi, Glaz-Ocik, & Guldimann, 2014). Research in German schools also found that warning behaviors, such as a preoccupation with violent media, acquisition of weapons, and suicide ideation, signal an attacker's escalation along a pathway of violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013). ...
... Although direct threats to the intended victims are rare, both leakage and direct threats are warning behaviors that can signify that an attacker is moving along a pathway of violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Meloy, Hoffmann, Roshdi, Glaz-Ocik, & Guldimann, 2014). Research in German schools also found that warning behaviors, such as a preoccupation with violent media, acquisition of weapons, and suicide ideation, signal an attacker's escalation along a pathway of violence (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013). A German model of threat assessment places primary emphasis on identifying students experiencing a psychosocial crisis that could precipitate violence (Leuschner, Fiedler, Schultze, et al., 2017). ...
Many schools across North America have adopted student threat assessment as a violence prevention strategy. The Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines (VSTAG) is a threat assessment model that emphasizes distinguishing between substantive threats that are serious and transient threats that are not serious. This retrospective study investigated the interrater reliability and criterion-related validity of this distinction in a sample of 844 student threat cases from 339 Virginia public schools. To assess interreliability for the transient versus substantive distinction, research coders independently classified a subsample of 148 narratives, achieving classification agreement with schools of 70% (κ = .53). Logistic regression analyses examined transient and substantive threat differences in threat characteristics and outcomes. Threats were more likely to be classified as substantive when they included warning behaviors (e.g., history of violence, weapon use, leakage, etc.), were made by older students, mentioned the use of a bomb or a knife, and involved threats to harm self as well as others. Although only 2.5% of threats were attempted, substantive threats were 36 times more likely to be attempted than transient threats. Substantive threats were more likely to result in out-of-school suspension, change in school placement, and/or legal action. Overall, these findings supported the transient/substantive distinction, but indicated some training needs for school teams.
... This insecurity was compounded by shootings that occurred in secondary schools in Germany. Starting in 1999, more than 40 students, teachers, school staff, and police officers died as a result of targeted violence in German schools (Böckler, Seeger, Sitzer, & Heitmeyer, 2013;Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013). Germany has as a result the second highest number of victims worldwide of targeted lethal violence in secondary schools, followed in Europe by Finland (Oksanen, Räsänen, & Nurmi, 2012). ...
The Virginia Tech mass murder shocked not only U.S. academics but also academics across Europe. The event simultaneously opened the door for violence prevention as an important issue for universities across Europe and became a slow-burning catalyst with step-by-step threat assessment programs developed in several European countries. In contrast to the United States, until recently there have been no reports of mass murder cases in Central Europe. Therefore, most threat assessment programs do not focus on the prevention of lethal violence as their main activity. Instead, they primarily address incidents of stalking, threatening communications, and other forms of behavior of concern that are then identified and managed by local threat assessment teams.
... Fein & Vossekuil, 1999) -entwickelt worden, die der Frage nach sukzessiven Einflussfaktoren (behaviorale, kognitive, emotionale und situative) auf dem Weg von der Drohung zur Umsetzung der Tat nachgegangen sind. Diese Modelle beziehen sich meist auf spezifische Formen von Drohungen, so z.B. auf die Bedrohung von öffentlichen oder berühmten Personen oder die Ankündigung von ‚School Shootings'(Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013) und ihre empirische Absicherung steht noch weitestgehend aus(Meloy et al., 2014). Ebenso stehen nur für spezifische Kontexte von Drohungen, wie z.B. ...
... Although there has been some theoretical preoccupation with leaking (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Meloy, Hoffman, Guldimann, & James, 2012;Meloy & O'Toole, 2011), empirical research on its characteristics and potential assessment criteria is sparse. However, retrospective studies of school shootings have confirmed the presence of leaking prior to every offense (Bondu¨, 2010;Moore, Petrie, Braga, & McLaughlin, 2003;Newman, Fox, Harding, Mehta, & Roth, 2004;Vossekuil et al., 2002). ...
... School Psychology International 35 (6) cooperations with other institutions should be established and emergency plans should be introduced in more detail to all involved parties (Bondu¨, Cornell, Leuschner, & Scheithauer, 2013;Brock et al., 2009;Brock & Jimerson, 2012;Cornell & Sheras, 2006;Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013;Leuschner et al., 2011). Finally, there were hardly any differences in our findings depending on teachers' age, gender, years of experience as a teacher, or prior experiences with leaking after Bonferroni-correction. ...
Leaking comprises observable behavior or statements that signal intentions of committing a violent offense and is considered an important warning sign for school shootings. School staff who are confronted with leaking have to assess its seriousness and react appropriately – a difficult task, because knowledge about leaking is sparse. The present study, therefore, examined how frequently leaking occurs in schools and how teachers identify leaking and respond to it. To achieve this aim, we informed teachers from eight schools in Germany about the definition of leaking and other warning signs and risk factors for school shootings in a one-hour information session. Teachers were then asked to report cases of leaking over a six- to nine-month period and to answer a questionnaire on leaking and its treatment after the information session and six to nine months later. Our results suggest that leaking is a relevant problem in German schools. Teachers mostly rated the information session positively and benefited in several aspects (e.g. reported more perceived courses of action or improved knowledge about leaking), but also expressed a constant need for support. Our findings highlight teachers’ needs for further support and training and may be used in the planning of prevention measures for school shootings.
... In 78% of the attacks, firearms were used, in 44% explosives and smoke grenades were the weapons of choice, and 22% of the attackers used knives. The highest international number of casualties per event in the last two decades in secondary schools committed by current or former students has been found in Germany: in the 2002 rampage school attack in Erfurt, 17 people died, and 16 people died in Winnenden in 2009 (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013 ); in both cases, the suicide of the offender is included in the total number of lives lost. ...
A typology of 8 warning behaviors for targeted violence— dynamic and superordinate patterns which may indicate accelerating risk of violence—were tested in a small sample of German school shooters (n 9) and students of concern (n 31) to see if any warning behaviors would be significantly different between the groups. Five warning behaviors were found to occur with significantly greater frequency in the school shooters and discriminate between the samples: pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, and last resort. All effect sizes were large (.50). The findings are discussed in the context of school-shooting data from Germany and the United States and their implications for threat assessment.
... After extensive research on international cases of school shootings, Hoffmann and Roshdi (2013) developed a four-stage pathway model of severe targeted violence in schools. This process is accompanied by an ongoing crisis and an emerging pattern of warning behavior. ...
... That same year the first instrument of the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DYRIAS) family was released (Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013). DYRIAS is a research-based online tool combining a clinical approach to gathering information with an actuarial calculation process. ...
... Zugleich wurde in der Untersuchung vermutet, dass bei School Shootings auch noch Jahre später mit einem Nachahmungseffekt zu rechnen ist. In fortlaufenden Forschungsprojekten untersucht die Arbeitsgruppe seitdem weiter verschiedene Aspekte dieser Form von schweren Gewalttaten in Bildungseinrichtungen mit einem Schwerpunkt auf dem Präventionsansatz des Bedrohungsmanagements, was in dem zertifizierten Schulungsprogramm "System Sichere Schule" mündete (Hoffmann & Wondrak, 2007;Hoffmann et al., 2009;Hoffmann, 2011;Roshdi & Hoffmann, 2011;Hoffmann & Roshdi, 2013). ...
This paper starts with a short review of the research on
school shootings. Then a risk assessment tool called DyRiASschool
will be presented which assess the risk of targeted
violence in schools. DyRiAS is vaidated studying two seperate
samples.
Mass shootings, particularly those that occur on school grounds, often generate intense political debate. Following the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglass High School, questions arose on how to prevent these tragedies. Typically, the response generated from these questions revolves around mental illness, bullying prevention, and gun control. Unfortunately, the views on these topics, especially gun control, are often rooted in a strong belief system which is unwavering. Resultantly, the debate on how to avert these incidents often stops at the debate phase. This study sought to better understand how these events can be prevented by examining targeted school killings from 1900–2016 in which the suspect was stopped before the attack. The analysis revealed that the majority of attacks were prevented by other students reporting the threat of an impending attack to school and law enforcement authorities.
