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One of the current debatable global problems is climate change or global warming as crucial geopolitical risks. The progress of energy transition by considering geopolitical risk has not been considered seriously yet. This paper contributes to the literature by modeling and analyzing energy transition patterns in Russia with emphasis on geopolitica...
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... regards to geopolitical risk, by increasing the speed of energy transition, Russia can lower the threat of natural curse [2] and lower the speed of climate change (according to [9] website, Arctic sea ice is now decreasing at a rate of 12.85% per decade which is an important geopolitical risk for Russia). Table 4 represents the expected signs of coefficients of our independent variables: Source: Authors' compilation. ...Similar publications
One of the major issues, related to the economic development of our society is the future security on energy supply, which, due to the high industrial intensity and the other energy intensive human activities, is expected to be crucial and hard to solve for the future generations. The issue of the depletion of fossil fuel reserves, expected within...
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... In addition, it uses the independent and dependent variables to divide the forecast error of the specified variable into different proportions [95]. It breaks down the complete data range of variables one by one and talks about the relationship between them [96]. Table 9 shows the outcomes of variance decomposition analysis of CO2, digital finance, financial inclusion, institutional quality, and renewable energy. ...
Maintaining environmental sustainability has escalated to the top of the agenda in practically all nations today, including Pakistan. Hence, our research supports the United Nations sustainable development goal line, specifically SDG-11 for sustainable societies and SDG-13 for mitigating climate change vulnerability. To address these challenges, the present study investigates the association of digital finance, financial inclusion, renewable energy, and institutional quality with environmental sustainability in Pakistan. While financial inclusion is assessed using five proxies that are indexed by principal component analysis (PCA), digital finance is quantified by the number of ATMs. We used data from 2004 to 2021 to explore the relationship among the study variables. Employing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we examined the long-run and short-run symmetric relationships between variables. Additionally, the study investigate the moderating impact on environmental sustainability by analysing the interaction term of institutional quality and digital finance (DF*INSQ). The results show that financial inclusion and digital finance can help developing countries like Pakistan achieve environmental sustainability. The study also highlights the vital role of renewable energy sources in the long-term reduction of carbon emissions. Moreover, the interaction between digital finance and institutional quality presents positive prospects for advancing environmental sustainability. These findings underscore the necessity of redefining financial inclusion and giving environmental sustainability projects top priority. They provide insightful information for policymakers and digital financial service providers in less developed countries. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of robust financial institutions prioritizing renewable energy and institutional integrity for long-term financial health and growth.
... In the sample literature, scholars explored the relationships between carbon emissions, carbon footprints, energy consumption, energy transition, economic development, FDI, trade levels, and other indicators using the EKC hypothesis [75,[78][79][80][81]. They conducted analyses from different perspectives, including causality, consequences, and the transformation's impact on development quality [30,60,68,82]. ...
... Moreover, there are certain heterogeneities in the transformation elements across different regions or industries. Geopolitical risks Geopolitical risks improve energy transition movement [78] Firstly, technology is the primary productive force, and thus, breakthroughs, utilization, and spillover of technology can effectively enhance energy efficiency and promote energy transition. Technological innovations increase the capacity to produce green energy to meet potential demand and expand the applicability of green energy [22,38,62,93,107,114,121]. It is found in [68] that environmental concerns and the development of renewable energy technologies have significantly reduced emissions and promoted energy transition. ...
... Financial support is a crucial driving force for energy transition [14,47,101]. It can be found in [47] that inclusive finance significantly promotes renewable energy transition, while Ref. [78] discovered that financial openness has a positive impact on Russia's energy transition. Also, Ref. [112] argued that green energy investments and the development of fundamental finance facilitate energy transition. ...
Recently, as more countries and regions have embarked on the path of energy transition, the speed and manner of economic development have been influenced in varying degrees. However, the relationship between energy transition and economic development remains unclear, as research conclusions are inconsistent. The aim of this study is to systematically examine the relationship between energy transition and economic development using the literature review approach. This study selected 102 studies from Scopus that explicitly address energy transition and economic development as our final sample for this investigation, aiming to clarify the current research status on factors, barriers, and pathways of energy transition, and discuss related theories about energy transition. The results indicate a significant increase in research volume on this topic over the past four years, with nearly half of the studies focusing on cross-regional countries or economic entities. The sampled literature reveals various relationships between economic development and energy transition, including one-way promotion, one-way inhibition, bidirectional causality, and ineffectiveness. Factors influencing energy transition include technology, financial support, environmental governance, human capital, taxation, rents, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The main obstacles to energy transition lie in the scarcity of environmental resources, path dependence, and uneven development. Based on these research findings, this study discusses prospects and potential directions for future studies.
... Another widely discussed remedy for facilitating energy transition is technological innovation, which mitigate climate change hitches and can achieve SDGs around the world. Technological development and political and economic reforms can support the transformation of energy systems and help them be more competitive [26]. Several studies use patent application indicators as a proxy for technology innovation [27,28] while only a few studies use ICT, which is quantified by innovation in the field of energy and environment. ...
... Given this, Figure 1 indicates the associated model of dependent and independent variables. Following the study of [26], involving an analysis for Russia, we assume the effect of independent variables on energy transition using electricity production instead of consumption in newly industrialized countries. The model is as follows: ...
... The symbol i indicates 7 newly industrialized countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa), t is a period from 2000 to 2021, indicates the standard error, is a constant term, and to are slope coefficients of variables. The quantile regression for exploring energy transition by following Equation (1) and using the variables in Equation (3) is constructed in Equation (4): Following the study of [26], involving an analysis for Russia, we assume the effect of independent variables on energy transition using electricity production instead of consumption in newly industrialized countries. The model is as follows: ...
Several researchers have studied the environmental policy stringency and ecological innovation regarding CO2 emissions and renewable energy consumption; however, the impact of environmental policy stringency, technological innovation, FDI, and ecological innovation on energy transition has not been studied in the case of NICs. For this purpose, panel quantile regression models are applied in the context of NICs from 2000 to 2021. Our empirical results show that the effect of foreign direct investment is positive and statistically significant on energy transition. On the other hand the variables environmental policy stringency, eco-innovation, and ICT-trade have an inverse effect on energy transition. Therefore, the findings of the study also provide policy implications that indicate NICs need to optimize their trade structure and re-innovate the latest innovation spillovers, and strict environmental policies should be introduced to facilitate energy transition in NICs.
... Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters in the global non-renewable energy market. Green practice, global transitioning towards renewable energy and decarbonisation of energy system are considered as a threat to Russia's revenue earning from production and export of fossil fuels [42]. ...
The recognition of climate change as real and unprecedented has been acknowledged by global communities. Furthermore, fossil fuel energy consumption and territorial emissions are identified as major drivers of climate change. Data collected from the World Bank for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group of countries for the period from 1990 to 2018, and analyzed using Panel FGLS and Panel GEE models, revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and its square with fossil fuel energy consumption in BRICS countries. However, this relationship was not observed with territorial emissions. It is indicated that the BRICS group of countries is making efforts to reduce fossil fuel energy consumption, but investment in green technology is insufficient to reduce territorial emissions. Therefore, it is recommended that climate policies need to be more aggressively implemented to support investment in clean and green energy technology.
... Fourth, geopolitical risk can significantly influence perceptions of sovereign and country risks, particularly in emerging markets and nations facing ongoing geopolitical challenges (Ramady, 2014;Su et al., 2019;Wang et al., 2021). Elevated geopolitical risk may result in a downgrading of credit ratings, implying an increased likelihood of default. ...
Using individual transaction data, we investigate how geopolitical risk influences green bond issuance across 73 countries during 2008–2021. We consider deal characteristics, as well as economic and institutional factors. We find a positive association between geopolitical risk and green bond issuance. The effect shows nonlinearity and time delays. Our findings remain robust after conducting sensitivity and endogeneity analysis. After decomposing the geopolitical risk index, we discover that all its components have positive correlations with green bond issuance. Lastly, our study highlights the crucial role of the underwriters' network and specific geopolitical jurisdictions as drivers for global green bond market expansion.
... Geopolitical risks affect the energy markets through three channels. First, geopolitical risks stimulate energy conversion and reduce oil prices, which is propelled by fuel substitution (Rasoulinezhad et al. 2020). Second, conflicts have a negative influence on investor sentiment, which has a further effect on crude oil prices (Ji et al. 2019). ...
This research analyzes the dynamic relationship between green bonds, energy prices, geopolitical risk, and CO2 emissions. In doing so, the study examines the global scale at disaggregated (i.e., sectoral) level, applies a novel time and frequency-based approach (i.e., wavelet local multiple correlation-WLMC), and uses high-frequency daily data between 1st January 2020 and 28th April 2023. In doing so, the study considers the potential differences among sectors. So, aggregated and disaggregated level CO2 emissions on sectoral bases are investigated. Hence, the study comprehensively uncovers the effect of the aforementioned indicators on global CO2 emissions. The results reveal that on CO2 emissions (i) the most influential factor is the geopolitical risk (2020/1–2021/5), green bonds (2021/5–2021/7), energy prices (2021/7–2023/1), and green bonds (2023/1–2023/4); (ii) the effects of the influential factors are much weaker (stronger) at lower (higher) frequencies; (iii) the effect of the influential factors change based on times and frequencies; (iv) however, the effects of the influential factors on CO2 emissions do not differ at aggregated or disaggregated levels. Overall, the results present novel insights for time and frequency-varying effects as well as both aggregated and disaggregated level analyses of global CO2 emissions.
... These threats can manifest in various forms, including political tensions, conflicts, trade disputes, and regulatory changes. Notably, the negative impact of Saudi Arabian country-specific geopolitical risks on its copper production aligns with earlier research conducted by Rasoulinezhad et al. (2020), Su et al. (2021), Karkowska and Urjasz (2023) and Ha (2023). ...
The significance of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the production of non-metallic and metallic mineral resources, encompassing oil and copper, cannot be overstated. However, this pivotal role is accompanied by inherent uncertainties arising from geopolitical events. This research examines the response of oil and copper production to the economy of uncertainty, represented by decomposed geopolitical risk categorized as “threats” and “acts,” as well as Saudi Arabia’s own geopolitical risks. Monthly data from January 1994 to December 2022 are employed, utilizing cross-quantilogram (CQ) and partial cross-quantilogram (PCQ) techniques. The analysis reveals a positive quantile dependence between geopolitical risk “threats” and “acts” and oil production during bearish market conditions with long memory. Conversely, this relationship turns negative in bullish market conditions, particularly at lower quantiles of oil production. Additionally, a significant negative spillover effect is observed from geopolitical “threats” and “acts” on copper production. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s own geopolitical risks play a crucial role in impeding the production of both oil and copper with longer memory. Nevertheless, the primary contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive examination of the production
portfolio of both metallic and non-metallic resources, taking into account the impact of both global and Saudi Arabia’s specific geopolitical challenges, thereby representing a departure from previous research in terms of the adopted modelling approach. The policy implications underscore the criticality of addressing geopolitical issues as a means to sustain the momentum of metallic (copper) and non-metallic (oil) resource production, thereby safeguarding the attainment of a sustainable economic trajectory for Saudi Arabia.
... Overland et al. (2019) calculated the geopolitical advantages and losses for countries that transitioned to REN and found that the energy shift tends to distribute geopolitical power more fairly, with some countries benefiting more and others losing more. Finally, Rasoulinezhad et al. (2020) and Cai and Wu (2021) confirmed that higher political instability improved REN development and vice versa and that REN can be a valuable means to minimize instability during the energy transition. ...
This study examines the causal relationship between renewable energy and energy security. The findings suggest that energy security has an explanatory role in renewable energy across several subsamples and is driven by various economic and political events, strained relationships between countries, social unrest, and sanctions. Similarly, the results confirm that renewable energy has influenced energy security through the negative impacts of climate change, the security of oil supplies, and the implementation of policies and incentives to promote renewable energy. Therefore, the outcomes of this study recommend developing a comprehensive national plan to increase renewable energy use and enhance energy security.
... However, current economic literature remains conflicted regarding how ECI interacts with environmental quality: (i) natural resource exploitation requires higher energy resources and causes environmental degradation (Boleti et al., 2021). (ii) but ECI can spur R&D innovation, sustainable production and environmental regulations to ensure environmental sustainability (Golpîra et al., 2018;Rasoulinezhad et al., 2020). ...
The environmental threats from climate change and global warming have become more consistent. As a result, several policy solutions, including structural transformation and sustainable resource consumption, have been discussed to ensure compliance with the United Nations sustainable development goals. To extend policy discussion , we select environmental degradation, economic complexity, natural resources, education, economic growth, and banking developments for BRICST economies from 1995 to 2021. The current study has selected CS-ARDL, AMG and CCEMG as an econometric strategy. Our empirical findings confirm that economic growth, natural resource abundance, and banking developments have positive while education carries negative impact over environmental degradation. We also confirm the EKC hypothesis for BRICST economies. Practical policy suggestions to promote green environmental policies to strengthen the sustainable development agenda have been proposed based on detailed empirical analysis.
... Uncertainty is proven as the cause of the "self-development" phenomenon during difficult business times with more innovation activities (Meng and Shi 2017;Wang et al. 2014 and the increasing number of patent applications (Atanassov et al. 2015;Gu et al. 2018). When the "self-development" effect incorporates the motivation to be self-reliant on green energy sources, geopolitical risks may actively contribute to the energy transition and decision towards more sustainable ways (Rasoulinezhad et al. 2020;Sweidan and Elbargathi 2022). Empirically, the positive impact of geopolitical risks on renewable energy consumption has been found in 19 emerging countries during 1996-2015 (Alsagr and Hemmen 2021). ...
Fiscal decentralization has been long employed to enhance the utilization of financial resources for sustainable development. Nevertheless, its effectiveness in limiting ecological degradation is ambiguous, especially when a country faces geopolitical risks. Different from previous works which separately examine the impacts of either fiscal decentralization or geopolitical risks on ecological sustainability, this research examines the moderating role of geopolitical risks on the non-linear relationship between fiscal decentralization and ecological footprints across different levels of environmental condition. An advanced panel quantile regression is applied to a sample of 23 advanced and emerging market economies from 1990 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the nexus between revenue decentralization and ecological footprint follows an inverted U-shaped pattern at the 20th to 60th quantiles of ecological footprint. Meanwhile, the linkage between expenditure and ecological footprint reflects a U-shaped pattern across all quantiles. Notably, geopolitical risk strongly moderates the connection between fiscal decentralization and ecological footprint with the role being stronger in the case of revenue decentralization. This research provides valuable implementations to tailor policies for transferring revenue and expenditure responsibilities to sub-governmental bodies towards sustainability targets based on their current ecological conditions and contexts of geopolitical instability.
