Figure 7 - uploaded by Julie Barnett
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Example IPCC pedigree chart Source: https://proxy.eplanete.net/galleries/broceliande7/uncertainty-communication
Source publication
The aim of this review was to identify communication challenges associated with the expression of uncertainty in the Plant Health Risk Register (PHRR) and inform future Defra strategies for addressing these challenges.
Our starting point is that the communication of uncertainty potentially relates to much more than issues of wording, numerical form...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... alternative form of pedigree chart reported to have been trailed in IPCC workshops ( Figure 7) depicts an average of expert scores using a coloured gradient from green to red (but in this instance appropriately using red to indicate a low score -negative, and green for high - positive). This display includes an option to use error bars to represent the range of aggregated expert point scores. ...
Citations
... Following stakeholder suggestions, this 'information architecture' establishes a clear hierarchy of navigation with step-wise learning and easy-to-find documentation to enhance comprehension (Terrado et al., 2022b). Notably, each interface page employs 'progressive disclosure' to further assist users in building working heuristics about the underlying research approach and to prevent overwhelming effects from dense information related to climate uncertainty Quintana, 2002, Pereira et al., 2005;Kloprogge et al., 2007;Wardekker et al. 2008;Hinkel, 2011;Barnett and Weyman, 2016;McInerny et al., 2014). ...
... The initial presentation of simpler details and abilities for users to opt into extended information can enrich heuristic learning ('progressive disclosure'; Springer and Whittaker, 2019; Barnett and Weyman, 2016;Kloprogge et al., 2007). For example, the default "Scenario Overview" option displays a flowchart of the parameters and forcings of the climate and forest disturbance scenarios. ...
... As stakeholders noted, CRB-Scenario-Explorer can be used to communicate the potential benefits of forest management when seeking water security and to promote additional research to verify these benefits. Indeed, employment of 'progressive disclosure' elements not only strengthens understanding of the research findings but can also empower users to reflect and act upon the information (Barnett and Weyman, 2016). CRB-Scenario-Explorer thus demonstrates the key benefits of scenario modelling through interactive platforms (Tague and Frew, 2020) as an effective boundary object to expand discourse around environmental risks (White et al., 2010). ...
Growing challenges of climate change require urgent shifts in scientific research to inform environmental decision-making. In the context of water management of the Colorado River Basin (CRB), the impacts of intensifying forest disturbances under climate change are not well understood but expected to have major consequences. To address this, we developed a web-based tool, CRB-Scenario-Explorer, that provides interactive visual assessments of modelled future CRB hydrology scenarios and detailed documentation of our approach to support mindful interpretations. Water manager feedback and user-experience principles were incorporated to achieve a user-centered design. Stakeholders confirmed the effectiveness of the web-based tool in assisting with the discovery that future CRB hydrology appears more sensitive to climate uncertainty than forest disturbances, which can be used to brief leaders and spark discourse around risk management. CRB-Scenario-Explorer thus exemplifies a novel and effective method to increase the accessibility, applicability, and transparency of environmental science research.
... The technical process of identifying the risks associated with new and emerging tree and plant pestsa Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)is used to determine appropriate phytosanitary measures and assess the likely biological, economic and social impacts of the outbreak (FAO, 2013). However, these assessments often have to deal with large degrees of uncertainty, particularly when scientific evidence is lacking, inconclusive or emerges piecemeal as outbreaks unfold (DEFRA, 2014; Barnett and Weyman, 2015). Developing a PRA may involve extrapolating existing data from other geographical locations where the pest is present and where the climatic and ecological conditions may be quite different. ...
The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' – defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders – construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and ex-periential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.
