Table 2 - uploaded by Guy Michaels
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We use variation in oil abundance among Brazilian municipalities to investigate the effects of resource windfalls. We find muted effects of oil through market channels: offshore oil has no effect on municipal non-oil GDP or its composition, while onshore oil has only modest effects on non-oil GDP composition. However, oil abundance causes municipal...
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... Second, to the best of our knowledge, no similar study has been conducted before in Chad. Finally, a main advantage of using household-level data is a reduced need to control for confounding effects such as differences in institutional and macroeconomic conditions (Caselli and Michaels, 2009;James and Aadland, 2011). ...
State fragility in Chad has been narrowly associated with insecurity due to a long cycle of violent conflict and recurrent droughts, leading to low social development. In this paper, we have investigated the impact of women’s empowerment on household social expenditures using data from the Chadian household consumption and informal sector survey carried out in 2011, and Propensity Score Matching as empirical model. The social expenditures used as outcome variables are education, health and food. We find that social expenditures are higher when a household is headed by a woman than when it is headed by a man with similar observed characteristics. In particular, differences between female-headed households and male-headed households are higher in food expenditures after controlling for observed characteristics (covariates). The results also show that there is a composition effect in household expenditure. While female-headed households spend their incomes in social sectors (health, food and education), those headed by men spend for temptation goods (alcohol and leisure). These results hold when we control both model specification and common support hypothesis. Our findings provide decision makers with economic policy tools to promote the social development focusing on women’s empowerment.
JEL Classification: J16, H31 and C52
... In addition, oil revenues have been found to help economic stabilization and uncertainty mitigation (Hernandez-Perez, 2011;Mehrara, 2009). Nonetheless, contrary to the mainstream perspective, there is evidence that suggests that income from O&G royalties might not cause a significant economic benefit as they are usually not enough to cover the needs in infrastructure, education, health, and housing as in the case of Brazil (Caselli and Michaels, 2009). Even, some studies have suggested that is economic growth which fosters oil development than otherwise such as in the case of Venezuela (Agnani and Iza, 2011) and other developing countries (Mehrara, 2007). ...
In Mexico, since the 1970's, the O&G sector has been and still is at the center of national development strategies. This faith in the O&G sector for development and energy security is shared by most oil-exporting developing countries. Understanding their present impact potential is relevant to identify insights on their implementation, limitations or even justify their abandonment. This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of three of such conventional policies regarding their economic, environmental, and social impacts. We implement a scenario methodology, based on the input-output framework, that allows simulating different levels of success in the implementation of these policies. The results confirm the relevance of the O&G sector for the country as its collapse would induce severe economic contractions (about −7%) and job losses (over 350k). Moreover, even though the results suggest that the success of these policies would create substantial benefits, especially when applied in tandem (up to 2.5% of economic growth and around 150k more jobs); other relevant variables that might affect or even nullify the effectiveness of these policies are not considered. Therefore, policymakers of oil-exporting countries should pursue further evidence and pay attention to sustainable development considerations, before judging conventional oil-based development policy strategies.
... This paper also contributes to the Dutch disease literature (Corden and Neary 1982;Davis 1995;Caselli and Michaels 2009;Allcott and Keniston 2017). The Dutch disease model stipulates that if part of the extra income generated by a natural resource boom is spent inside the resource-exporting country, the boom leads to a rise in the relative price of nontraded goods as well as an increase in the relative profitability of the nontraded goods sector and contracts the (non-resource) traded goods sectors. ...
In this paper we analyse structural change and its implications for labor productivity growth in Kazakhstan, Malawi, and Zambia, three resource-dependent countries, during the resource boom that lasted from 2001 to 2013. We pay particular attention to the effects of labor heterogeneity by assessing the demand for pre-determined occupations. The effects of structural change on heterogeneous labor markets are studied by developing a model to explain the observed patterns of labor migration between sectors. We use labor force survey data from Kazakhstan and census microdata for Malawi and Zambia available from the IPUMS International database. In-depth examinations are performed using a decomposition technique and multinomial logit regression to examine labor demand patterns. Results show that private services experienced the largest increase in employment across all occupations and relative skill deepening. Substantial decreases in managers occurred in public services. The results indicate that structural change is fundamental in shaping the allocation of individuals across different occupations within the labor market. Moreover, during a resource boom, the results indicate that the public sector experiences a skill-drain that may affect the quality of governance.
... The other is that governance has been unable to resist short-run spending pressures and to commit to long-run investment and growth strategies (Venables, 2016). In particular, for developing countries (Mehlum et al., 2006;Caselli and Michaels, 2009), the interaction of resources with a market failure has been widely regarded as the fundamental mechanism inducing the resource-curse effects. ...
... Furthermore, Papyrakis & Gerlagh (2004) point out, estimation biases in many cross-country studies can be largely attributed to the failures of taking into account the differences in institutional factors between resource-rich countries, such as corruption, investment, governance structure, and trade terms. These problems also explain why empirical results from cross-country studies are sensitive to choices of observation period, sample countries and variables (Van der Ploeg, 2011;Caselli and Michaels, 2009). When using the data at local-level within a country, the institutional factors that confound the relationship between resources and economic performance are usually common across the individuals. ...
... The literature has provided evidence there may be a threshold level of resource dependence at which the resource curse would occur (Mehrara, 2009;Caselli and Michaels, 2009). The dilemma seems to have appeared in some old mining cities in China. ...
the literature proposes that a booming minerals sector leads to a development curse. The mineral markets in China experienced a prolonged boom over the period of 2000–2010. We empirically examine the effects of mineral resources on employment in county economies during the boom. We consider the endogeneity of the resource measure and employ an instrumental variables approach to resolve the problem. We find the mining boom exerts a significant “crowding out” effect on the manufacturing employment in mineral-resource-dependent counties, but benefits the employment in services. Because the increase in mining employment is sizeable in a mining boom, the overall employment in the resource-dependent counties has shown a small growth. These results are robust to alternative samples. Our findings confirm the argument that resource booms undermine manufacturing sectors through deindustrialization effects, though little evidence shows the existence of a resource curse in overall employment. We conclude that for a developing economy with rich mineral resources and a large population, it would be hard to following the road of industrialization relying on manufacturing.
... increased corruption). The idea that resource booms lead to a higher political survival, depressing activities and corruption, is also well supported by Michaels (2009) andSala-i-Martin andSubramanian (2013). ...
Accountability; Natural Resources; Fiscal Regimes
... This allocation also requires an evaluation. Thirdly, the main advantage of using household-level data is the reduced need to control for confounding effects such as differences in institutional and macroeconomic conditions (Caselli and Michaels, 2009;James and Aadland, 2011). Fourthly, to our best knowledge, no similar study has been conducted before in Chad. ...
Cette thèse présente un ensemble de travaux de recherche en économie politique qui s’inscrivent dans le champ contemporain de la littérature sur la malédiction des ressources naturelles dans les pays en développement. Elle s’intéresse spécifiquement aux liens entre les rentes des ressources naturelles et les institutions politiques et les conflits, puis entre les rentes et la pauvreté sous ses différentes formes. Son champ géographique se situe à plusieurs niveaux, international pour un groupe de pays en développement, monographique et infranational pour le Tchad et ses régions. La première partie, en s’inspirant des théories des changements institutionnels, teste l’hypothèse que les rentes issues de différentes ressources naturelles ont des effets différenciés sur la qualité des institutions dans les pays en développement. Par la suite, elle teste l’hypothèse d’un « système de conflit régional » dans le Triangle République Centrafricaine, Tchad et Soudan. La deuxième partie évalue le dispositif « original » de gestion des revenus pétroliers sur différentes dimensions de la pauvreté au Tchad sur des données d’enquêtes de terrain. Le premier chapitre de cette partie teste l’hypothèse d’un biais urbain dans l’allocation de temps des enfants dans un contexte pétrolier au Tchad. Alors que le second est dédié à l’évaluation de l’impact de l’exploitation pétrolière sur le profil de la pauvreté dans la région productrice en utilisant les méthodes quasi-expérimentales d’évaluation d’impact.
... Secondly, large financial resources have been allocated to the Region following the measures discussed above, and that requires an evaluation. Thirdly, a main advantage of using householdlevel data is a reduced need to control for confounding effects such as differences in institutional and macroeconomic conditions (Michaels, 2008;Caselli and Michaels, 2009;James and Aadland, 2011). Fourthly, no similar study was conducted before to our knowledge in this country. ...
In 1999, the Chad Government passed Law No. 001/PR/1999, establishing rules for allocating and managing the expected oil income from the Doba Oil project. The oil producing region's share amounts to 5 per cent of royalties, in addition to other benefits related to its status as an oil producing region, in order to mitigate negative effects from the oil project. This paper assesses the poverty profile in the Logone Oriental region, by combining a double difference estimator with propensity score matching methods. Data from two panels of the Survey on Consumption and the Informal Sector in Chad carried out in 2003 and 2011 show that monetary poverty increased in the oil producing region compared to the control regions. No evidence was found that non-monetary poverty decreased in the oil producing region, as large investments in social infrastructure in the region might have suggested. In addition, it was found that household expenditure for temptation goods increased in this region compared with other regions. Finally, spillover effects were observed — the oil producing region's neighboring regions are more likely to experience poverty. These results cast doubt on the effectiveness of the law and of its replication for newly discovered oil fields.
... For example, wealth effects (sometimes know as spending effects) might depress labour supply or cause a reallocation of resources from the tradeable non-resource sector. Or direct demand by resource extraction firms and workers may also raise local prices and work against some sectors of the local economy (Caselli and Michaels, 2009). Another possibility is that increases in local price volatility may deter local entry of some firms (see related analysis at the national level by Schott, 1998). ...
... Second, this article suggests that if resource-rich areas in other parts of the world have failed to develop, the economic channels that operate in the US South are not likely to have been the cause. It seems more likely that interactions between abundant local natural resources and weak local institutions (Mehlum et al., 2006;Caselli and Michaels, 2009) were at play. ...
... The effect of oil in Brazil makes for an interesting contrast. In recent work(Caselli and Michaels, 2009) we find that oil revenues there generated little gains in standards of living for residents of oil-rich municipalities.9 But in some oil-rich countries, especially in the Middle East, large-scale migration did take place(Michaels, 2010).10 ...
Using geological variation in oil abundance in the Southern US, I examine the long term effects of resource-based specialisation through economic channels. In 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production. From 1940-90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing. Oil abundant counties had higher population growth, higher per capita income and better infrastructure. © 2010 The Author(s). The Economic Journal © 2010 Royal Economic Society.
The relationship of mineral resources rent with economic performance, greener energy, and environmental policy is crucial because it could impact how welfare and eco-friendly are treated in a nation. This paper employed machine learning (ML) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict minerals resourcesthrougheconomic growth, the producer price index, market prices, the environmental policy stringency index (EPSI), and greener energy in China. The ML and ANN outputs showed how responsive quarterly minerals resource rent variations are too dynamic shifts in economic performance and renewable energy use. The more critical prediction accuracy of ML experiments compared to ANN experiments is highlighted by data from mean absolute percentage, mean square, root mean square, and root mean absolute errors, as well as the coefficient of determination. Though China is abundant in natural resources, there is a need to employ these resources efficiently to achieve long-term eco-friendly performance. In addition to comparing the results of ML and ANN, it also provided causality conclusions and policy implications.
This thesis aims to empirically investigate the effects of foreign aid on different aspects of governance in recipient countries, namely elections, corruption, and democracy. The firstchapter focuses on electoral outcomes in Uganda, the second chapter focuses on World Bank aid and corruption in firms, and the last chapter focuses on aid and country-level democratic outcomes globally. The results shown that aid has different impacts on different aspects of goverance. I find evidence of aid used as a vote-buying mechanism to benefit the incumbent in Uganda, but multilateral aid seems to reduce corruption at the firm-level, and aid also seems to foster democracy albeit with a very small effect.
