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The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantified using the IMPACT and GLOBIOM models. The scenarios...
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... The second set includes studies that do not use (or do not reference using) SSPs as their baseline (WEF 2017; WRI 2019). The third set of scenarios adapts the set of SSPs to regional specifications Palazzo et al. 2014Palazzo et al. , 2017Mason D'Croz et al. 2016). The line between scenario and visioning foresight work can blur. ...
... Many scenarios (e.g. work by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, such as Palazzo et al. 2014Palazzo et al. , 2017Vervoort et al. 2014;Mason-D'Croz et al. 2016;Hasegawa et al. 2018) focus on production outcomes, food prices, and caloric availability as model outcomes rather than on poverty, nutrient quality, and healthy diets. As a result, GPN impacts are often uncertain. ...
... Other axes focus on land use, consumer preferences, water resources, and human capital, among other things. The outcomes primarily discussed are yield gaps (with some attention to land extensification) and food security (Palazzo et al. 2014). ...
This review evaluates foresight studies to understand how the future agri-food system may impact gender, poverty, and nutrition (GPN). Foresight studies agree that it will be challenging to transform the agri-food system into one that is sustainable, healthy, and just, although the degree to which foresight studies consider GPN is uneven. Foresight work with a GPN focus tends to assume that global coordination of policies and regulations is both necessary and possible in order to achieve improved GPN outcomes. However, history has shown that efforts to coordinate globally are mixed. At the same time, innovation-led studies pay less attention to barriers to equitable adoption and nutritional outcomes. Yet, the history of development has demonstrated the difficulties of equitable implementation of and access to new technological innovations, particularly for women and marginalized populations. I argue that mainstreaming GPN into foresight research can inform both policy-led and innovation-led pathways that support an improved agri-food system. The use of multisectoral and multilevel tools and analyses can support future foresight research and policymaking to systematically identify the net influences on and trade-offs among GPN and other factors.
... This is precisely the objective of this paper, 1 which aims to identify and characterise, adopting a regional scaling-up approach, the main drivers of change that would condition the future contribution of small farms to regional food production and FNS in a diversity of European regions. 2 This research makes a number of contributions to the existing literature on food system drivers. First, it is focused on Europe, while most debates on the future of food systems so far have frequently adopted a global scale (FAO, 2017;Foresight, 2011), or have been more focused in the global South (Palazzo et al., 2014;Jayne et al., 2014;Magnusson et al., 2012), with much fewer studies addressing the European scale. Second, this paper adopts an original approach by focusing on the question of the role of a key actor (small farms) in contributing to the future of food security and nutrition, allowing to reach more concrete and tailored conclusions. ...
The capacity of the food system to respond to the economic, demographic and environmental challenges ahead has become a topic of increasing interest, with particular attention to the roles and responsibilities of the different actors to ensure more sustainable food systems that can guarantee food and nutrition security for all. In this paper we approach the need to better understand the factors that can condition the potential contribution of small farms to regional food and nutrition security in Europe, acknowledging the role that small farms play in Europe at present. The analysis is based on a survey to 94 experts from 17 regions (NUTS3 level) in 11 different European countries, which identified the drivers of change according to the regional experts. These drivers were then categorized and their relative relevance assessed. The results indicate that some relevant drivers in the European context are linked to the capacity to adopt technologies and practices allowing adaptation to climate change, and the capacity to connect to food markets, with emphasis in the need for cooperation and collective action. The weight of other more European-specific drivers such as ‘consumer values and habits’ reveal that the future role of small farms will be very dependent on a societal change, with equity becoming a relevant component of consumers’ choice.
... Scenarios are not projections, predictions, or forecasts; rather they describe potential future conditions and how they came about (Wilkinson and Eidinow, 2008). Two axes of uncertainty structure the socioeconomic scenarios: (i) short-term or long-term priorities dominate in regional governance and (ii) the state or nonstate actors are the driving force of change in the region, though many other drivers play a key role in the scenario pathways (Palazzo et al., 2014). These other drivers (e.g., population, GDP, political stability) are assumed to occur in each socio-economic scenario to allow for comparisons to be made between them. ...
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.
... These two RCP scenarios are coupled with four shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). These SSPs are used to derive data to index prices and costs in the bio-economic model (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008;Palazzo et al. 2014, O'Neill et al. 2014Lokonon et al. 2016). The four SSPs are built on the following story lines. ...
This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally, actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS.
... To translate these to numerical values we used "one to one" mapping of SSP to CCAFS scenario and used the trend indicators to adjust the pathways. guided by the regional scenario narratives and the trend indications of change developed by the stakeholders during the scenario development workshops, we adjusted these drivers for the region to capture some of the uncertainty around governance and political stability that are captured by the regional scenarios as they pose a challenge for development in Western Africa (Palazzo et al., 2016;Palazzo et al., 2014) (Dellink et al., 2015) and population values from IIASA (Kc and Lutz, 2014) Figure D2: Population of Western Africa in millions of people for the CCAFS scenarios and SSPs (population values from IIASA (Kc and Lutz, 2014)) ...
... Because GLOBIOM is a partial-equilibrium, economic and land-use model with global coverage we can further examine vulnerability characteristics of the system that stem from internal (or regional) and external (or outside the region) sources. J. Examples of the use of the CCAFS West-Africa scenarios A primary purpose for the scenarios discussed in this paper is to use them for national and regional policy guidance (Vervoort et al., 2014). Using a scenario-guided approach, a close collaboration with decision-makers results in the design of a process in which the regional scenarios are downscaled to the national level and to the concerns of a specific plan or policy. ...
... El uso de la metodología ha servido para robustecer y validar políticas nacionales de agricultura y cambio climático (Colombia, Perú, Ecuador, Bolivia), para facilitar la contribución a nivel local a la Estrategia de Adaptación al Cambio Climático del 20 Sector Agroalimentario de Honduras y para apoyar la formulación de las Contribuciones Nacionales Determinadas de Costa Rica. A continuación se muestran los principales resultados de los escenarios para Centroamérica y países Andinos, los cuales se pueden encontrar con mayor detalle en Palazzo et al. (2014). ...
... Calorías diarias disponibles per cápita y demanda de alimentos por producto indexado a la demanda per cápita de 2010. Fuente: Tomado dePalazzo et al. 2014. ...
... The main results of the scenarios for Central America and the Andean countries are shown below, which can be found in more detail in Palazzo et al. (2014). ...
... Central America's Scenarios by 2050 for each factor of change. Source:Palazzo et al. 2014. ...
... Indeed, many socio-economic parameters used in the modeling are from previously published studies (e.g., Louhichi et al., 2013;Louhichi & Paloma, 2014;Lokonon et al., 2015;Yilma, 2006;Kutcher & Scandizzo, 1981;Paloma et al., 2012). Other socio-economic parameters collected were from the World This work relies on four socio-economic scenarios to capture our uncertainty about future economic prospects of the region (Palazzo et al., 2014). ...
... Scenarios are not projections, predictions, or forecasts; rather they describe potential future conditions and how they came about (Wilkinson & Eidinow, 2008). Two axes of uncertainty have structured the socio-economic scenarios: (i)-short-term or long-term priorities dominate in regional governance and (ii) the state or non-state actors are the driving force of change in the region, though many other drivers play a key role in the scenario pathways (Palazzo et al., 2014). These other drivers (e.g., population, GDP, political stability) are assumed to occur in each socioeconomic scenario to allow for comparisons to be made between them (Palazzo et al., 2014). ...
... Two axes of uncertainty have structured the socio-economic scenarios: (i)-short-term or long-term priorities dominate in regional governance and (ii) the state or non-state actors are the driving force of change in the region, though many other drivers play a key role in the scenario pathways (Palazzo et al., 2014). These other drivers (e.g., population, GDP, political stability) are assumed to occur in each socioeconomic scenario to allow for comparisons to be made between them (Palazzo et al., 2014). This paper uses the following four socio-economic scenarios (or Shared Socio-economic Pathways-SSPs) and was developed by Palazzo et al. (2014): which is a higher level GHG forcing (Sylla, 2015). ...
... Economic development and population growth are essential elements in the models, and when combined give per capita income a critical factor in determining food demand . We compared the socioeconomic and demographic developments for the region guided by the scenario narratives and the semi-quantitative logic and directions of changes as presented in Palazzo et al. (2014) for the CCAFS scenarios over the same time period for the SSPs as quantified by the SSP developers (Kc & Lutz 2014;O'Neill et al. 2014;Dellink et al. 2015). In West Africa, the population of the region grows from 300 million in 2010 to between almost 600 million in Self-Determination or 800 million in Save Yourself. ...
The IPCC community’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development futures focused on drivers of challenges to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, the impacts and drivers of plausible future development at any national or regional level have yet to be examined for consistency within the global narrative.
In this paper, we present four globally-consistent regional scenarios on Western Africa’s development that have been used to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. The regional scenarios were outlined independently by regional stakeholders but built around the context of the SSPs. The scenarios were quantified using two agricultural models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders.
Our paper 1) demonstrates how linkages of global SSPs and regional multi-stakeholder scenarios can be achieved through a process of critical comparison, starting from regional priorities, to produce consistent scenarios for future regional development; 2) provides insights for Western Africa on the future of development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts in both qualitative and quantitative scenarios; 3) reports on a set of scalable scenarios for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use to build and test robust agriculture and climate policies.
web link: https://www.ifpri.org/publication/interpreting-shared-socio-economic-pathways-under-climate-change-ecowas-region-through
... November 2013, in Ha Long, Viet Nam, 30 stakeholders from government agencies, NGOs, academia, the private sector, and the media, from Cambodia, Laos, and Viet Nam explored key regional drivers of change as part of a regional scenario building process. This process, one of 7 regional efforts led by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS, Palazzo et al., 2014;, was done in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme's World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP WCMC). It had the objective of creating diverse, stakeholder-driven scenarios to test and develop regional policies and investment strategies on climate-resilient agriculture and food systems, while exploring potential environmental tradeoffs. ...
Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.
