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Earthquake environmental effects of the 1992 Suusamyr Earthquake. (a) Map with the photo locations. (b) The central section of the western primary surface ruptures in summer 2015. View to the south. (c) The highest section of the eastern primary surface ruptures in summer 2016. View to the west. (d) Secondary ruptures on top of the Chet Korumdy ridge in summer 2015. View to
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![Figure 6. Comparison of ESI2007 intensities with MM isoseismals [6] and...](publication/333941047/figure/fig3/AS:772410047483904@1561168314273/Comparison-of-ESI2007-intensities-with-MM-isoseismals-6-and-MSK-intensities-from_Q320.jpg)
Large pre-historical earthquakes leave traces in the geological and geomorphological record, such as primary and secondary surface ruptures and mass movements, which are the only means to estimate their magnitudes. These environmental earthquake effects (EEEs) can be calibrated using recent seismic events and the Environmental Seismic Intensity Sca...
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... reached individual lengths of several tens of meters, spanning fissure zones of several kilometers length. The Chet Korumdy ridge was particularly affected by secondary cracks, which mainly formed as E-W elongated grabens on top of the ridge as a result of extension (Figures 3 and 4) and S-facing scarps on its southern side. We surveyed parts of the secondary ruptures on the Chet Korumdy ridge with a drone and created a high-resolution DEM, shown in Figure 4. ...
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... [21] mention that one of the eruptions resulted in a 400 m long and 100 m wide mud flow. We visited two of the sites in 2015 (Figure 3) and found muddy bogs related to landslides. At the central site near the western primary surface ruptures a muddy layer was found at a landslide toe (Figure 3g). ...
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... visited two of the sites in 2015 (Figure 3) and found muddy bogs related to landslides. At the central site near the western primary surface ruptures a muddy layer was found at a landslide toe (Figure 3g). We excavated a 25 cm deep pit into the deposits and found them to be dark, uniform, saturated soils without any hints of burned layers. ...
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... the site appeared like an over-pressured landslide mass from which water was seeping. At the westernmost site near the highway (Figure 3h,i), we encountered swampy areas on top of a landslide deposit. Puddles of several meters length contained fissures with seeping water (Figure 3i). ...
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... the westernmost site near the highway (Figure 3h,i), we encountered swampy areas on top of a landslide deposit. Puddles of several meters length contained fissures with seeping water (Figure 3i). No hints for explosive eruptions could be identified in 2015/16. ...
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... a lower intensity of ESI = IX would have to be assigned [8,10]. Given the state of preservation of the free-face in 2015/16, we consider this very unlikely (Figure 3b, Reference [7]). If the length of the western primary surface ruptures is taken into account, ESI2007 intensities do not change of course. ...
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... a lower intensity of ESI = IX would have to be assigned [8,10]. Given the state of preservation of the free-face in 2015/16, we consider this very unlikely (Figure 3b, Reference [7]). If the length of the western primary surface ruptures is taken into account, ESI2007 intensities do not change of course. ...
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... The western part of the Tien Shan ( Fig. 1) is an active mountain range still absorbing the India-Eurasia convergence (Tapponnier and Molnar, 1979), with occurrence of large earthquakes (Mw > 7) (Kalmetieva et al., 2009;Rizza et al., 2019). In Kyrgyzstan, strong historical earthquakes have triggered important landslides, causing more victims than the seismic events themselves, such as the Mw 7.9 1911 Kemin and the Mw 7.8 1992 Suusamyr earthquakes ( Fig. 1) (Delvaux et al., 2001;Grützner et al., 2019). In the Tien Shan, > 4000 landslides have been detected (Fig. 1) and some of them have been associated with the formation of dammed-lakes (Havenith et al., 2013(Havenith et al., , 2015. ...
... The western part of the Tien Shan ( Fig. 1) is an active mountain range still absorbing the India-Eurasia convergence (Tapponnier and Molnar, 1979), with occurrence of large earthquakes (Mw > 7) (Kalmetieva et al., 2009;Rizza et al., 2019). In Kyrgyzstan, strong historical earthquakes have triggered important landslides, causing more victims than the seismic events themselves, such as the Mw 7.9 1911 Kemin and the Mw 7.8 1992 Suusamyr earthquakes ( Fig. 1) (Delvaux et al., 2001;Grützner et al., 2019). In the Tien Shan, > 4000 landslides have been detected (Fig. 1) and some of them have been associated with the formation of dammed-lakes (Havenith et al., 2013(Havenith et al., , 2015. ...
... The moment magnitude for this earthquake is estimated at magnitude 7.2 Gómez et al. 1997). The surface ruptures have been well mapped (Ainscoe et al. 2018;Grützner et al. 2019) which we use to define the surface rupture. ...
Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This risk is exacerbated by city expansion, which may obscure signs of active faulting. Here, we estimate the risk to Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due to realistic earthquake scenarios based on historic earthquakes in the region and an improved knowledge of the active fault sources. We use previous literature and fault mapping, combined with new high-resolution digital elevation models to identify and characterise faults that pose a risk to Bishkek. We then estimate the hazard (ground shaking), damage to residential buildings and distribution of losses (economical cost and fatalities) using the Global Earthquake Model OpenQuake engine. We model historical events and hypothetical events on a variety of faults that could plausibly host significant earthquakes. This includes proximal, recognised, faults as well as a fault under folding in the north of the city that we identify using satellite DEMs. We find that potential earthquakes on faults nearest to Bishkek—Issyk Ata, Shamsi Tunduk, Chonkurchak and the northern fault—would cause the most damage to the city. An Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Issyk Ata fault could potentially cause 7900 ± 2600 completely damaged buildings, a further 16,400 ± 2000 damaged buildings and 2400 ± 1500 fatalities. It is vital to properly identify, characterise and model active faults near cities to reduce uncertainty as modelling the northern fault as a Mw 6.5 instead of Mw 6.0 would result in 37% more completely damaged buildings and 48% more fatalities.
... It assigns the seismic intensity using the quantitative analysis of these EEEs. As a result, there have been significant differences between the ESI-07 and the traditional intensities for several events around the world (Guerrieri et al., 2009;Tatevossian et al., 2010;Ali et al., 2009;Papanikolaou et al., 2009;Lekkas, 2010;Papanikolaou, 2011;Nappi et al., 2017;Chunga et al., 2018;Grützner et al., 2019) verifying that the man-made environment overshadows the traditional intensities. This kind of uncertainty can be overcome by detailed mapping of the EEEs and applying the ESI-07 scale (Michetti et al., 2007;Ota et al., 2009;Huang et al., 2019;Naik et al., 2020b). ...
... Considering this factor, the ESI-07 scale has been applied to several historical and recent earthquakes worldwide (Michetti et al., 2007;Porfido et al., 2007;Audemard et al., 2015;Porfido et al., 2015a,b;Serva et al., 2015;Serva et al., 2016;Sanchez and Maldonado, 2016;Nappi et al., 2017;Caccavale et al., 2019;Tuttle et al., 2019;Huayong et al., 2019;Porfido et al., 2020;ISPRA). Several studies suggested that the ESI-07 scale follows the same criteria-environmental effects for all earthquakes and can be comparable for earthquakes not only from different tectonic settings but also recent earthquakes with historical earthquakes (Guerrieri et al., 2009;Tatevossian et al., 2010;Ali et al., 2009;Papanikolaou et al., 2009;Lekkas, 2010;Papanikolaou, 2011;Papanikolaou and Melaki, 2017;Chunga et al., 2018;Grützner et al., 2019;Naik et al., 2020a). The association of ESI-07 with earthquake magnitude and the development of an attenuation relationship may reduce the uncertainty parameter of the attenuation relationship developed using the traditional intensity scale (Giner-Robles et al., 2015). ...
... Thus, the total area for the EEE distribution of EEEs can be considered a minimum area. Therefore, the immediate post-earthquake analysis and reporting of the distribution of the EEEs are extremely important for seismic hazard analysis (Grützner et al., 2019;Naik et al., 2020a). Based on the distribution of EEEs and their dimension, the ESI-07 intensity was assessed for the 2018 Hualien earthquake following the INQUA ESI-07 intensity scale guideline (Michetti et al., 2007), and a detailed ESI-07 map (Fig. 9a-d) has been prepared. ...
The macroseismic intensity of the February 6, 2018, Mw 6.4, Hualien earthquake, which caused extensive damage around the Hualien area of eastern Taiwan is reassessed using the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale. We compiled data on earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) caused by the 2018 Hualien earthquake, which includes surface ruptures, ground cracks, liquefaction, and occasional landslides, and estimated the epicentral intensity (I0) as well as site-specific intensities. We found that the ESI-07 epicentral intensity of the Hualien quake in 2018 is IX. We note that the epicentral area of the 2018 Hualien earthquake was the mesoseismal area of the October 22, 1951, (Mw 6.6) Hualien earthquake, as reported in primary contemporary sources and historical earthquake catalogs. The 1951 Hualien earthquakes also caused prominent surface ruptures, liquefaction, and ground cracks. Consequently, we reassess the macroseismic intensities of this historical seismic event and compare it to the Hualien earthquake in 2018. The comparison suggests similar epicentral intensities for the two earthquakes (IX and X ESI-07). Moreover, we conducted a systematic comparison between intensity obtained using different scales which revealed the differences of two to three degrees between the ESI-07 and traditional intensity scales. This result reconfirms the significance of documentation and recording of earthquake environmental effects to make intensity assessments for modern seismic events consistent with the historical earthquake records. Moreover, a re-evaluation of historical earthquake intensity in eastern Taiwan could be performed in order to update the seismic hazard map. Application of the ESI-07 intensity scale of recent and historical earthquakes will be helpful in post-earthquake recovery efforts for a future earthquake. The prepared ShakeMaps from the ESI-07 values suggests completely different shapes to the previously generated ShakeMaps considering the peak ground acceleration or peak ground velocity. It suggests that the ShakeMaps prepared from the earthquake environmental effects can be complemented with the instrumental based intensity map to have a better seismic hazard prediction and future land use planning for the region.
... and by Lalinde & Sanchez (2007), who used 8 events in Colombia (M range 5.5-8.5). The analysis of a more complete dataset and the development of more robust relations have been identified as a significant step forward by several researchers (e.g., Serva et al., 2016;Papanikolaou and Melaki, 2017;Grützner et al., 2019;Huayong et al., 2019;King et al., 2019); in this paper, we tackle this issue, since the relations derived here consider a dataset of about 150 earthquakes, much larger than previous efforts. Fig. 6e shows that earthquake kinematic or geographic location have an influence on the derived equations; thus, more specific equations may be derived whenever enough data are available. ...
... -Potential of preservation and implications for paleoseismology. EEEs can be preserved for a variable time in the geologic record, and it can be challenging to disentangle between different triggering mechanisms (e.g., King et al., 2018); on the other hand, the geologic record somehow censors the earthquake history, allowing to retrieve information on the most powerful events (e.g., Grützner et al., 2019). A possible pitfall of the use of the ESI-07 scale in paleoseismological investigations was pointed out by King et al. (2018): by monitoring the degradation of EEEs triggered by the 2016 Petermann (Australia) earthquake, they argue that most EEEs will not be confidently attributable to a seismic origin within 10-1000 years. ...
... Recent seismic events documented that an earthquake may involve multi-fault rupture and that surface faulting may present a complex pattern in terms of spatial arrangement and slip distribution along faults (e.g., 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake: Hamling et al., 2017Hamling et al., , 2019 Ridgecrest, US, sequence: Ross et al., 2019). Interpreting such complexities can be challenging especially from a paleoseismological perspective, leading to erroneous ESI-07 assignment, as demonstrated by Grützner et al. (2019) for the 1992 Suusamyr event. The ESI-07 scale assigns an intensity IX for surface rupture length of 1-10 km; it has been questioned that such range may need to be revised, especially for reverse faulting earthquakes (Ota et al., 2009); reverse faults indeed are characterized by lower probability of surface rupture for a given magnitude, when compared to e.g., normal faults (Moss and Ross, 2011). ...
The Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI-07), published 15 years ago under the umbrella of INQUA (In-ternational Union for Quaternary Research), is solely based on earthquake effects on the natural environment. ESI-07 provides complementary information with respect to other macroseismic scales, in particular those stemming from the original Mercalli scale, which are mainly based on effects on manmade structures. We collect information on 157 earthquakes, occurred between 300 AD and 2020, that have been studied using the ESI-07 scale. The ESI-07 epicentral intensity can be assigned based on linear or areal features (e.g., length of surface rupture, area affected by environmental effects); this value is generally in good agreement, or slightly larger, than estimates provided using other macroseismic scales. Higher discrepancies are found for earthquakes with ESI-07 epicentral intensity above X, where other scales tend to saturate, as expected based on the original definition of the Mercalli-family intensity scales. We develop scaling relations among ESI-07 epicentral intensity and moment magnitude, surface rupture length and affected area. After critically evaluating the scientific literature, we argue that the ESI-07 reached its original goals and proved to be particularly useful for the documentation of earthquake damage i) in remote regions, ii) in the case of strong events, where other scales saturate, and iii) in the region closer to the epicenter. Finally, we identify gaps where to focus future efforts, such as the integration of remote sensed datasets in ESI-07 assignment and the refinement of empirical regressions.
... In the latter cases (E1 and E3), the measured maximum dip-slips offset amount to several meters (2-3 m) and could imply SRLs of >30 km instead of the inferred <20 km (Figure 8). This discrepancy might be consistent with a common phenomenon observed in other thrust/reverse fault studies in Central Asia and elsewhere that revealed discontinuous surface-rupture traces that were shorter than expected, despite several meters of slip associated with major ≥M7 earthquakes (e.g., Ainscoe et al., 2018;Arrowsmith et al., 2017;Grützner et al., 2019;Rimando et al., 2019;Rockwell et al., 2014). In this context, E1 and E3 might constitute ruptures with discontinuous surface breaks that potentially bypassed our remaining trenching sites. ...
The Pamir Frontal Thrust (PFT) of the Trans‐Alai Range in Central Asia is the principal active fault of the intracontinental convergence zone between the Pamir and Tien Shan. Its northward propagation is reflected by frequent seismic activity and ongoing crustal shortening. Recent and historic earthquakes exhibit complex rupture patterns within and across seismotectonic segments bounding the Trans Alai, challenging our understanding of fault interaction and seismogenic potential. We provide paleoseismic data from five trenches along the central PFT segment (cPFT) and interpret five and possibly six paleoearthquakes that have ruptured since ∼7 ka and 16 ka, respectively. Our results indicate that at least three major earthquakes ruptured the full‐segment length and possibly crossed segment boundaries with a recurrence interval of ∼1.9 kyr and potential magnitudes of up to Mw 7.4. We did not find evidence for great (i.e., Mw ≥8) earthquakes. However, discrepancies between slip and rupture extent during apparent partial segment ruptures in the western half of the cPFT, combined with significantly higher scarp offsets, indicate a more mature fault section with potential for future fault linkage. We estimate an average rate of horizontal motion for the cPFT of 4.1 ± 1.5 mm/yr during the past ∼5 kyr, which does not fully match the GNSS‐derived present‐day shortening rate of ∼10 mm/yr. This suggests a complex distribution of strain accumulation and potential slip partitioning between the cPFT and additional faults and folds within the Pamir that may be associated with a partially locked regional décollement.
... Several case studies have been reported in the literature of estimating the seismic intensity for historical and modern seismic events around the globe [10,16,[21][22][23][24][25][26]. Despite having the upper hand over traditional intensity scales, the ESI-07 scale only has a limited number of entries from Asia or Central Asia [9,25,27]. ...
... This raises concerns for areas with unconsolidated soil deposits and potential areas for liquefaction or areas having potential for slope failure. Therefore, the compilation and documentation of ground effects emerge as a very useful tool in seismic hazard assessment, particularly in land-use planning for sites for future urban centers or areas with critical life-line facilities [27,[39][40][41]. ...
The earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) around the epicentral area of the Pohang earthquake (Mw-5.4) that occurred on 15 November 2017 have been collected and classified using the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale) proposed by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) focus group. The shallow-focus 15 November Pohang earthquake did not produce any surface rupture, but caused extensive secondary environmental effects and damage to lifeline structures. This earthquake was one of the most damaging earthquakes during the instrumental seismic era of the Korean Peninsula. The EEEs included extensive liquefaction, ground cracks, ground settlement, localized rockfall, and variation of the water table. The main objective of this paper was to carry forward a comparative assessment of the Pohang earthquake's intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and the ESI-07 scale. With that objective, this study will also make a substantial contribution to any future revision of the ESI-07 scale, which mostly comprises case studies from Europe and South America. The comparison of the ESI-07 scale with traditional intensity scales similar to the intensity scale used by the Korean Meteorological Administration for the epicentral areas showed 1-2-degree differences in intensity. Moreover, the ESI scale provided a clearer picture of the intensity around the epicentral area, which is mostly agricultural land with a lack of urban units or buildings. This study urges the integration of the traditional and ESI-07 scale for such small magnitude earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula as well as around the world in future. This will predict seismic intensity more precisely and hence provide a more-effective seismic hazard estimation, particularly in areas of low seismic activity. The present study will also provide a useful and reliable tool for the seismic hazard assessment of similar earthquakes around the study area and land-use planning at a local scale considering the secondary effects.
... • The paper "Earthquake Environmental Effects of the 1992 MS = 7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake, Kyrgyzstan, and Their Implications for Paleo-Earthquake Studies" by C. Grützner et al. [10] presents the application of the ESI-07 scale to the 1992 MS = 7.3 Suusamyr Earthquake in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. The author shows that the ESI-2007 intensity values distribution differs somewhat from traditional intensity assessments Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) and Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI), because of the sparse population in the epicentral area and the spatial distribution of primary and secondary Environmental Earthquake Effects (EEEs). ...
The application of the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) scale 2007 to moderate and
strong earthquakes, in different geological context all over the word, highlights the importance of
Earthquake Environmental Effects (EEEs) for the assessment of seismic hazards. This Special Issue
“New Perspectives in the Definition/Evaluation of Seismic Hazard through Analysis of the
Environmental Effects Induced by Earthquakes” presents a collection of scientific contributions that
provide a sample of the state-of-the-art in this field. Moreover the collected papers also analyze new
data produced with multi-disciplinary and innovative methods essential for development of new
seismic hazard models.
... Over the past 40-50 years with the development of the field of paleoseismology, special attention has been given to these environmental effects and a new intensity scale was proposed: the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07) (Allen, 1975;Michetti et al., 2004Michetti et al., , 2007Porfido et al., 2007;Guerrieri et al., 2009;Audemard and Michetti, 2011;Papanikolaou, 2011;Serva, 2019). The ESI-07 scale has been successfully applied for various damaging historical and modern earthquakes in different tectonic settings (Ali et al., 2009;Ota et al., 2009;Papanikolaou et al., 2009;Silva et al., 2008;Sanchez and Maldonado, 2016;Papanikolaou and Melaki, 2017;Nappi et al., 2017;Chunga et al., 2018;King et al., 2018King et al., , 2019Grützner et al., 2019;Huayong et al., 2019). The perceptible nature of the ESI-07 scale and easily applied guidelines for the documentation of EEEs decreases the uncertainty in seismic intensity estimation and offers higher spatial resolution than the traditional scales. ...
... For example, the ESI-07 scale more accurately forecasts intensity for areas with heterogeneous building types (related to different building standards) and that are sparsely inhabited, as well as for cases in which the traditional intensity scales becomes saturated (for intensity X-XII) (Michetti et al., 2004. Recent studies of the ESI-07 scale from different parts of the world allow for a more comprehensive assessment of macroseismic intensity than the traditional intensity scales (Papanikolaou et al., 2009;Lekkas, 2010;Papanikolaou and Melaki, 2017;Grützner et al., 2019; contributed to more exhaustive assessments of intensity for some earthquakes in Europe such as the 1986 Kalamata earthquake (Fountoulis and Mavroulis, 2013); the 2003 and 2015 Lefkada earthquakes in Greece (Papathanassiou and Pavlides, 2007;Papathanassiou et al., 2017 ), the historical 1743 Salento earthquake, 1930and 1980Irpinia-Lucania earthquakes, 1997Umbria-Marche earthquakes, 2012 Emilia earthquake, and 2016 Amatrice earthquake in Italy (Nappi et al., 2017;Serva et al., 2007;Guerrieri et al., 2009Guerrieri et al., , 2016Di Manna et al., 2012;Livio et al., 2012;Piccardi et al., 2016); and the 1998 Slovenia earthquake (Gosar, 2012). Apart from this, the ESI-07 scale has been applied in the Kashmir region to the 1885 Baramulla earthquake (Ahmad et al., 2014), in Japan to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and in New Zealand to the 2010 Darfield earthquake (Sanchez and Maldonado, 2016). ...
... A-A' indicate the geological section shown in Fig. S1. a goal of EEEs Catalogue maintained by Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA). ISPRA-Geological Survey of Italy collects worldwide ESI intensity data for earthquakes with different focal mechanisms, magnitudes, locations, and tectonic and geological settings (Grützner et al., 2019). Contributing to ISPRA's goal, we have applied the ESI-07 scale to one of the most damaging modern earthquakes, the Mw 7.7, 2001 Bhuj earthquake, from the Indian subcontinent, where commonly Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) or Modified Mercalli Intensity (MM) has been used for the macroseismic intensity estimation. ...
On 26th January 2001, an earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.7 occurred near Bhuj, in northwestern India, resulting in severe environmental effects. No unequivocal primary surface rupture was observed for the earthquake, but it caused widespread liquefaction and lateral spreading in the Rann of Kachchh and Little Rann. After the earthquake, several researchers collected field evidence of secondary surface rupture, rockfall, dry craters, and surface manifestations of liquefaction, including the formation of mud volcanoes and lateral spreads, in the meizoseismal area. Analysis of pre- and post-earthquake satellite images suggests that several “dry” streams in the Rann of Kachchh began to flow due to extensive liquefaction induced by the earthquake. In this present study, the macroseismic intensity of the Bhuj earthquake is evaluated by considering these environmental effects and applying the ESI-07 intensity scale to the affected area. As an outcome, the epicentral intensity of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake was determined to be XI. According to historical records and seismic catalogs, 16th June 1819 Allah Bund earthquake caused prominent surface rupture which was not so clear in the case of 2001 Bhuj earthquake, but the secondary effects were similar for both earthquakes. Considering the environmental effects caused by the 1819 Allah Bund earthquake, an intensity of XI was estimated for the epicentral area. For both earthquakes, the ESI scale yields a significant difference of one to two degrees with the traditional intensity scales. The 2001 Bhuj earthquake and 1819 Allah Bund earthquake shows similar ESI-07 intensity of XI despite different epicentral locations. This implies the reliability of ESI-07 scale application for different earthquakes of similar dimensions in the same geological setting. This study contributes to the application of ESI-07 scale for Indian earthquakes, especially reverse faulting events, and to the future improvement of the ESI scale with emphasis on its applicability to historical earthquakes on the Indian subcontinent. Also, this study may help in future land use planning in the meizoseismal area of 1919 Allah Bund and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes.
... Thus, prehistorical events that are not within the scope of any historical archives can be covered. The basic idea of the ESI is to make use of traces of geological and/or geomorphological nature that have been left behind by primary and secondary surface ruptures and mass movements, so generated by large magnitude earthquakes to post-estimate the intensity of the hazard and the magnitude of the event [71]. Example applications of the ESI scale can be found in references [71][72][73][74][75]. Results reported in reference [73] indicate that incorporating ESI data into probabilistic/deterministic seismic hazard analysis can result in significant changes to the modelled PGA values. ...
... The basic idea of the ESI is to make use of traces of geological and/or geomorphological nature that have been left behind by primary and secondary surface ruptures and mass movements, so generated by large magnitude earthquakes to post-estimate the intensity of the hazard and the magnitude of the event [71]. Example applications of the ESI scale can be found in references [71][72][73][74][75]. Results reported in reference [73] indicate that incorporating ESI data into probabilistic/deterministic seismic hazard analysis can result in significant changes to the modelled PGA values. ...
In low-to-moderate seismicity (intraplate) regions where locally recorded strong motion data are too scare for conventional regression analysis, stochastic simulations based on seismological modelling have often been used to predict ground motions of future earthquakes. This modelling methodology has been practised in Central and Eastern North America (CENA) for decades. It is cautioned that ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) that have been developed for use in CENA might not always be suited for use in another intraplate region because of differences in the crustal structure. This paper introduces a regionally adjustable GMPE, known as the component attenuation model (CAM), by which a diversity of crustal conditions can be covered in one model. Input parameters into CAM have been configured in the same manner as a seismological model, as both types of models are based on decoupling the spectral properties of earthquake ground motions into a generic source factor and a regionally specific path factor (including anelastic and geometric attenuation factors) along with a crustal factor. Unlike seismological modelling, CAM is essentially a GMPE that can be adapted readily for use in different regions (or different areas within a region) without the need of undertaking any stochastic simulations, providing that parameters characterising the crustal structure have been identified. In addressing the challenge of validating a GMPE for use in an area where instrumental data are scarce, modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data inferred from peak ground velocity values predicted by CAM are compared with records of MMI of past earthquake events, as reported in historical archives. SouthEastern Australia (SEA) and SouthEastern China (SEC) are the two study regions used in this article for demonstrating the viability of CAM as a ground motion prediction tool in an intraplate environment.
