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Virtually every product is seasonal; seasonality often dictates business strategy. In this article, the authors (1) show how to add known seasonal patterns to any dynamic model parsimoniously and without changing the fundamental model assumptions, (2) illustrate how their method provides strategic implications for timing new product introductions,...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... bar shows esti mated seasonality for one week. All 12 levels were signifi cant (see Table 3). With N = 106, the adjusted multiple R 2 = .985 ...
Context 2
... 13 provides the discrete version of Equation 1. Equation 13 and g(t) in Table 3 provide f(t). The seasonal cycle is 52 weeks (1 year). ...
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Citations
... As a control variable, the ratio of marketing cost (MKTRATIO), market share of domestic movies (DOMSHARE), and the total number of audiences (AUDTOT) were considered. Since a movie's diffusion pattern is highly sensitive to seasonality, the variables were collected yearly (Radas & Shugan, 1998). The ratio of marketing cost was calculated by dividing the average marketing cost of all released Korean movies per year by the average total production cost. ...
The new product diffusion is based on the innovation diffusion theory assuming a new product is a type of innovation. New product diffusion patterns can inform various market characteristics. Thus, managers would benefit from studying the history of patterns to forecast how consumers react when a new product is introduced. This study focuses on capturing chronological changes in new product diffusion pattern for the case of Korean movie box office data, and applying the Bass model. We found that the level of innovation effect increases gradually for 15 years, which suggests that moviegoers have become more individualistic in recent years. However, the level of imitation effect increases only for domestic movies, which might be caused by the uncertainty avoidance tendency due to the lack of sequels or franchise products of domestic movies. This study enhances our understanding of historical changes of product diffusion patterns.
... An extensive literature in marketing has been devoted to forecasting the performance of theatrical films (e.g., Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Zufryden 1996; Neelamegham and Chintagunta 1999; De Vany and Lee 2001; Ainslie et al. 2004). In particular, both theoretical and empirical studies have been dedicated to the release timing of theatrical movies with emphasis on competition and seasonality (Krider and Weinberg 1998; Radas and Shugan 1998; Einav 2003; Foutz and Kadiyali 2003). ...
... An extensive literature in marketing has been devoted to forecasting the performance of theatrical films (e.g., Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Zufryden 1996; Neelamegham and Chintagunta 1999; De Vany and Lee 2001; Ainslie et al. 2004). In particular, both theoretical and empirical studies have been dedicated to the release timing of theatrical movies with emphasis on competition and seasonality (Krider and Weinberg 1998; Radas and Shugan 1998; Einav 2003; Foutz and Kadiyali 2003). In comparison, there has been scant marketing research on the home video market, despite the fact that the home video market is now over twice as large in annual revenue as the theatrical market ($25 billion vs. $10 billion in 2004). ...
Marketers routinely use timing as a segmentation device through sequential product releases. While there has been much theoretical research on the optimal introduction strategy of sequential releases, there is little empirical research on this problem. This paper develops an econometric model to empirically solve the inter-release timing problem: it involves (1) developing and estimating a structural model of consumers’ choice for sequentially released products and (2) using the estimates of the structural model to solve for the optimal inter-release time. The empirical application focuses on the movie industry, where we specifically address the issue of the inter-release time between a theatrical movie and its DVD version. We find that consumers are indeed forward looking; a shrinking movie-DVD release window does negatively impact box-office revenues, but there is a tradeoff in that there is greater residual buzz from the movie marketing that supports the sales of DVD due to the shorter time window. This leads to an inverted U-shaped relationship between movie-DVD release window and revenues, and the theater-DVD window that maximizes industry revenue for the average movie during the data period is 2.5 months.
... Research results often refer to the success-breeds-success theory (Elberse & Eliashberg, 2003), which is common knowledge in the industry. Further, scholars have interpreted profit-maximizing distribution as dynamic timing games between exhibition windows (e.g., Chiou, 2008;Hennig-Thurau, Henning, Sattler, Eggers, & Houston, 2007a;Krider & Weinberg, 1998;Radas & Shugan, 1998). ...
The post-theatrical exhibition has become essential for motion pictures to break even. Nevertheless, besides the first attempts to study TV broadcasters and streaming providers as release windows, academic research in marketing has concentrated primarily on the initial theat-rical release. This article examines factors influencing supply and demand during the sequential release process of the motion picture industry. The authors build a modelling framework to ana-lyze the drivers resulting in comprehensive supply and strong demand in major exhibition win-dows (i.e., during the home video, video-on-demand, and free-to-air TV exhibition). They esti-mate the conceptual model of regressions using market data from Germany, including all 5 200 theater-released motion pictures between 2005 and 2014. The authors expand the existing suc-cess-breeds-success theory and use a winner-takesall theory to explain market supply and de-mand in sequential distribution. The results reveal a limited set of influencing factors (e.g., word-of-mouth communication or certain genres) that increase the probability of comprehensive exhibition and strong demand. Other influencing factors depend on the exhibition window (e.g., age ratings). The results add to existing theories of sequential distribution and can help research-ers and managers improve movie-specific exhibition strategies.
... Research of perception of seasonal products unveils, that seasonality has a specific agricultural meaning, is important for markets and has potential to positively influence local economic development and market operations (Wilkins, 2002). Some brands even adjust product life cycle to seasonality during a year (Radas & Shugan, 1998). ...
Seasonality can serve as an eligible topic for adjustment of the shopper marketing activities. A purchase reaction of a shopper can be contingent on demographic factors. The main aim of the article is to identify the impact of the demographic factors on seasonal shopping sensitivity. The paper utilizes an observation in the selected supermarkets as a primary research method. Recorded objects were categorized in the defined demographic categories, which might have an influence on purchase sensitivity. A statistical data procession within the SPSS software was utilized for a data procession. The results of the paper confirm the importance of the seasonal shopper marketing strategies, however, deny the dependence of a consumer purchase behaviour on the defined demographic criteria.
... Though the popularity of the pioneering contribution of Sasser in this regard, different other models attempted to satisfy the gaps exist in Sasser's strategies (Hayes and Wheelwright, 1984;Crandall and Markland, 1996;Betts et al., 2000;Olhager and Johansson, 2012). On the other side, some scholars found it a wrong practice to think about capacity strategies considering the excess capacity a sunk cost (Radas and Shugan, 1998). ...
... Instead, the business should attempt to increase demand when that increase has the highest return. So, capacity is merely a constraint that we face (Radas and Shugan, 1998). ...
Managing the infeasible equilibrium between demand and capacity on the
strategic level is one of the major challenges in service operations. This study aims
to develop a framework of service capacity strategies that provide decisionmakers
with various long‐term strategic options to manage the demand variability
along with the consequences of such decisions on service delivery aspects.
Besides, it seeks to demonstrate the impact of capacity strategies on perceived
service quality and which aspect of service quality would be affected. Personally
administrated questionnaires are conducted with 25 hospital department heads
or their nominees (judgmental sampling) and with 274 patients (convenience
sampling) from three central and public hospitals located in Giza governate. The
findings of this research provide evidence that organization way to deal with
capacity has a reflection on the perceived service quality. The lag capacity strategy
is associated with a lower score of perceived service quality, higher expectation
and lower experience. Meanwhile, the lead capacity strategy is associated with
improved perceived service quality, lower expectation and higher experience
scores. A deliberate decision on capacity strategy helps organizations manage the
consequences of such a decision. If the organization chooses a lead strategy, it
should be aware of the size of the lead capacity, the cost of keeping idle capacity
and how to manage that extra capacity to its benefit. If the organization chooses
a lag strategy, perceived service quality will suffer. Organizations must adopt a
high level of tactical techniques to overcome crowdedness and decreased level of
service quality. It is also crucial to managing this state with the service providers,
not from a capacity point of view but the satisfaction perspective as well. The
amount of discrepancies increases not only on the customer side but also on the
internal staff.
... 6 So once the shared variance between early gross and screens is removed, the screen count ends up with a negative relation with later gross. This implies that the number of screens can be too high for the potential audience, allowing moviegoers to see the film who might otherwise have to wait until the film shows up in their local theater (see also Radas & Shugan, 1998). Given that the equation for final critic judgments does not include early gross, the negative effect for the two criteria does not presume the same underlying process. ...
... Research of perception of seasonal products unveils, that seasonality has a specific agricultural meaning, is important for markets and has potential to positively influence local economic development and market operations (Wilkins, 2002). Some brands even adjust product life cycle to seasonality during a year (Radas & Shugan, 1998). ...
... Some commodities depict patterns referred to as seasonal variation. Radas and Shugan (1998) provide a detailed list of seasonal demand products and their respective peak seasons. The concept of economic price theory in inventory management is incorporated by Whitin (1955). ...
The research investigates optimal pricing and inventory policies in the case in which the demands of different periods are identical. However, the supplies fluctuate due to cycles in nature as well as additional environmental and other factors. Each cycle contains two periods or seasons. A peak season with a large given supply is followed by a regular season with a small supply. The model deals with deterministic supply and the question of what policy is adopted regarding the quantities produced and sold in the markets at each period. It first considers the case without the use of inventory for delivery between periods. In the second case, inventory that can be produced at the peak period is only for sale at the regular period. It is sold as non-fresh inventory that is a ‘supplement’ to the fresh output produced at the regular period.
... Some commodities depict patterns referred to as seasonal variation. Radas and Shugan (1998) provide a detailed list of seasonal demand products and their respective peak seasons. The concept of economic price theory in inventory management is incorporated by Whitin (1955). ...
The research investigates optimal pricing and inventory policies in the case in which the demands of different periods are identical. However, the supplies fluctuate due to cycles in nature as well as additional environmental and other factors. Each cycle contains two periods or seasons. A peak season with a large given supply is followed by a regular season with a small supply. The model deals with deterministic supply and the question of what policy is adopted regarding the quantities produced and sold in the markets at each period. It first considers the case without the use of inventory for delivery between periods. In the second case, inventory that can be produced at the peak period is only for sale at the regular period. It is sold as non-fresh inventory that is a 'supplement' to the fresh output produced at the regular period.
... Continuous introduction of new products plays an important role in building competitive advantage and can contribute significantly to a firm's growth and profitability (Ali, 1994;Calantoneand Di Benedetto,1988;Kleinschmidt and Cooper, 1991). For many companies, the speed of new product development is a central component in their competitive strategy (Radas and Shugan, 1998;Shanker et al., 1998;and Zhang and Markman, 1998). Time to market is strongly associated with competitive advantage (Gupta and Wilemon, 1990). ...
