Table 1
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The largest earthquake (Mw 8.4 to 8.6) in Himalaya reported so far occurred in Assam syntaxial bend in 1950. However, some recent studies have suggested for earthquake of magnitude Mw 9 or more in the Himalayan region. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of seismological data extending back to 1200 AD, and show that earthquake in Himalaya...
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... seismicity map ( Fig.2) of largest earthquakes since 1900 (USGS catalogue) shows that M~9.0 earthquakes are associated with the subduction zones, but not with the continent-continent collision zones. Details of these earthquakes are given in Table 1. The largest earthquake in the continent-continental type plate boundary in Himalaya occurred in the eastern syntaxial bend; its estimated magnitude is 8. 4 -8.6 (Kanamori, 1977;Ambraseys and Douglas, 2004). ...
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Citations
... Over the past 52 years , this region has experienced 12 major to large earthquakes (5 ≤ M w < 7) in addition to numerous small-magnitude earthquakes, as reported by the USGS. The existence of a seismic gap further designates this region as a probable location for big earthquakes in the future (Khattri and Wyss 1978;Khattri 1987Khattri , 1993Srivastava et al. 2013). Notably, the Garhwal region experienced significant devastation due to two strong earthquakes: the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M w 6.8) and the 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M w 6.4). ...
The Garhwal region, situated in the central segment of the Himalayas, stands as one of the most seismically active areas in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. The newly established earthquake early warning (EEW) system in the Garhwal region emphasizes the critical need for magnitude scaling relations to enable real-time estimation of earthquake size. This study employs P-wave onset data from both observed and simulated records to develop magnitude scaling relations specific to the Garhwal region. Initially, we modified the semi-empirical technique (SET) for P-wave simulation and validated this modification using the 1991 Uttarkashi (Mw6.8) and 1999 Chamoli (Mw6.4) earthquakes in the Garhwal region. The modified semi-empirical technique (MSET) demonstrates its reliability, as evidenced by the comparatively low root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated records for both earthquakes. Subsequently, we apply MSET to simulate seven additional future earthquakes (Mw7.0–8.5) at the hypocentral locations of the 1991 Uttarkashi and 1999 Chamoli earthquakes. Moreover, conventional EEW parameters, such as average period (τc) and peak amplitude displacement (Pd), are extracted from 107 observed and 63 simulated P-wave onsets, utilizing a 3 s time window. Using this combined dataset of observed and simulated data, we introduce magnitude scaling relations based on the τc and Pd parameters. Subsequently, the developed scaling relations are tested to predict earthquake magnitude using the average values of estimated EEW parameters. The relatively small errors, measuring at 4.47–0.75%, and 2.45–0.60% for τc–Mw and 5.71–1.60% and 4.90–1.57% for Pd–Mw scaling relations, respectively for the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes suggest the applicability of these proposed relations. However, the scaling relations developed tend to underestimate the magnitude of earthquakes larger than 7.5, potentially attributed to the saturation observed in these relations for big earthquakes. Additionally, the calculated lead time for future earthquakes will range from 4 to 60 s for the sites situated within epicentral distances of 56–200 km. This lead time has the potential to play a substantial role in disaster mitigation in the Garhwal region, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains and Himalayan foothills. Hence, the development of scaling relations specific to the region is imperative for effective disaster mitigation and risk reduction in the Garhwal region.
... One of the most significant earthquakes on record struck Sumatra on December 26, 2004, Impacting a wide expanse spanning from the northern perimeter of Sumatra Island to the offshore vicinity of the Andaman Islands. This event ruptured a segment of the trench that extended about 1200 km, as reported by various sources including DeDontney et al. (2012), Srivastava et al. (2013), and Qiu et al. (2019). Another major earthquake, measuring M w 8.7 on the Richter scale, occurred off the western coast of northern Sumatra on March 28, 2005. ...
The book presents earthquake source, wave propagation, site amplification, and other seismological studies including earthquake simulation, application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in seismology, earthquake early warning system, waveform inversion, moment tensor analysis, receiver function analysis, earthquake prediction, and earthquake early warning system applications. To minimize the losses due to an earthquake, it is better to understand the source properties, medium characteristics, site condition, and amplitude of a probable earthquake at a particular site. The evolutions of earthquake source models make it possible to understand the source dynamics. However, analysis of the source using a single-domain method does not provide a better understanding of the source dynamics. Therefore, this book combines methods from the earthquake spectrum to waveform inversion and joint inversion. The book also discusses earthquake prediction methods and their reliability around the globe, and techniques of simulation viz. stochastic, empirical, semi-empirical, and hybrid, along with their limitations and application. Seismology is an interdisciplinary subject. Therefore, the information presented in the book will appeal to a wider readership from students, teachers, researchers, planners engaged in developmental work, and people concerned with earthquake awareness.
... Seismic seiches are standing waves in closed or partially closed bodies of water due to the passage of seismic waves from an earthquake (McGarr, 2020). Based on a historical assessment, earthquakes in the Himalayan region may not be expected to be as large as those in subduction zones (Srivastava et al., 2013). However, the variations in seismicity of collisional mountain belts are related to a complex interplay between rheology, fault style, kinematics, and tectonic stress regime, but the parameters that control earthquake behavior in orogenic mountain belts remain unclear (e.g., Dal Zilio et al., 2018). ...
Compressional and contractional tectonics are of interest to various researchers, from rock mechanics and engineering
to those studying the hazards, dynamics, and evolution of plate boundaries. We summarize here the terminology regarding deformation associated with compressional and contractional tectonics. We describe the now largely discarded geosyncline theory, which has its roots in contraction. Today, plate tectonics is the primary theory for explaining the processes shaping the Earth, including earthquakes, volcanoes, and mountain ranges.
We emphasize the importance of subduction zones, the most extensive recycling system on the planet, and suture zones, complex boundaries marking the collision zone between two plates. The effects and hazards associated with convergent and collisional plate boundaries are felt far afield and for long distances.
... Seismic seiches are standing waves in closed or partially closed bodies of water due to the passage of seismic waves from an earthquake (McGarr, 2020). Based on a historical assessment, earthquakes in the Himalayan region may not be expected to be as large as those in subduction zones (Srivastava et al., 2013). However, the variations in seismicity of collisional mountain belts are related to a complex interplay between rheology, fault style, kinematics, and tectonic stress regime, but the parameters that control earthquake behavior in orogenic mountain belts remain unclear (e.g., Dal Zilio et al., 2018). ...
... earthquake on the west and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal (M*8.3) earthquake on the east (Bgure 1b), which is based on the hypothesis of seismic gap, where the occurrence of future large/great earthquake is considered to be high (Khattri 1987;Srivastava et al. 2013), named as central Himalayan seismic gap, accumulated strains, based on the GPS data, are estimated to be large enough to generate couple of M * 8 earthquakes (Gupta and Gahalaut 2014). The 1991 Uttarkashi (Mw * 6.8) and 1999 Chamoli (Mw * 6.6) earthquakes in the central gap indicate seismogenic potential of the region to generate large earthquake (Bgure 1b). ...
Isolation of seismomagnetic effect arising from the stress-induced modulations of magnetisation becomes difficult due to natural variations of magnetic disturbances. It has been critical to find out the precursory earthquake behaviour in any of the data including geomagnetic, for the last 50 years. To search seismomagnetic signals in the present study, we have analysed four earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4.9) during 2007–2011 related to Ghuttu MPGO situated in NW Himalayas, India. These four earthquakes were found to be eligible for which Ghuttu station is in the preparation zone and an index of magnetic variation (Imv), which quantifies anomalous variations of the magnetic field from geomagnetic data, has been estimated. For this endeavour, an assumption has been made considering the average of magnetic data for the quiet days in order to compare the analysis with respect to the magnetic storms. Using the magnetic data recorded at Ghuttu MPGO for the interval of nearly two months within the range of occurrence of four moderate earthquakes, the Imv has been computed. As a result, it has been observed that the proposed Imv computed is still sensitive to global magnetic disturbances as evidenced by comparing to Dst and sum Kp for the earthquakes considered in the present study. Therefore, it is summarised that the best way to isolate seismomagnetic effect is by comparing the data of pair of stations in differential mode, one located close to the area of stress built up and the other immediately outside the seismic zone, so that the background noise can be eliminated by analysing this kind of pair stations in order to achieve the goal. However, the size of the earthquake and epicentral range are also important controlling parameters to observe the seismomagnetic effects due to an earthquake in a region.
... frontiersin.org 02 tectonic units in the area (Srivastava et al., 2013). Further, Kundu and Gahalaut (2012) argued that the majority of earthquakes in the region occur at a depth range of 30-60 km and the seismicity trend coincides with the Indian slab. ...
The Mizoram state of India lies in close proximity to the active Indo-Burma subduction zone and had experienced several moderate to large earthquakes, including the M7 event in 1938. Since 2015, only two events with 5<M<6 have occurred in the area, however, a sudden enhancement of earthquake activity (M3.0–M5.7) was observed from June to August 2020 in the eastern part of the Mizoram state, including the four events of M ≥ 5.0. We analysed the waveform data of 21 events recorded by the local and regional BBS to estimate the source parameters. The focal depth of these events varies from 13 to 45 km, while other parameters such as corner frequency, source radius, stress drop, and scalar seismic moment of the events are found in the range of 0.45–3.36 Hz, 0.77–5.58 km, 1.3–193 bars, and 3.98107E+13 to 6.30957E+17 Nm, respectively. The seismicity pattern shows two distinct clusters along the well-demarcated faults in the region, and most of them are generated by strike-slip movements. The Churachandpur-Mao Fault (CMF) is found to be the most active tectonic element in the study area. Hence, an M8 event has been simulated on the same fault using the stochastic simulation technique. The technique was validated by simulating the three M+5 events on the same source zone and comparing the simulated PGA, frequency, and response spectrum with the observed data. The simulation reveals that a PGA ∼480 gals is expected near the fault zone. The easternmost districts of Mizoram, such as Champai, Serchhip, Lunglei, Saiha, and Aizawl, may experience severe PGA (250–450 gals). The response spectral acceleration corresponding to single-storey, double-storey, 3–4 storey, and 5–6 storey buildings has also been estimated in the present study and it is found to vary in the range of 1,400–200 gals. The result of the present study will be useful in various engineering applications and help reduce the loss of lives and damage to infrastructure due to future large events in the region.
... Mohanty and Walling (2008) also estimated the maximum magnitude in the eastern Himalayan zone equal to 9.09 ± 0.58 using the Kijko (2004) method. However, Srivastava et al. (2013), Gupta and Gahalaut (2015) and Arora and Malik (2017) denied the possibility of occurrences of such mega-thrust earthquakes in the Himalaya based on the observations of the segmented Himalayan seismic belt that prevent the rupture of great earthquakes and distribution of deformation over many thrust belts. The examined region has already experienced Mw 8.2 and Mw 8.6 earthquakes in Bihar-Nepal and Assam regions, respectively. ...
The regions of eastern Nepal, northeast India and Tibet Himalaya (26°-30°N, 85°-97°E) are one of the most earthquake hazardous areas in the Indian subcontinent. The seismicity of this region is analyzed using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution (GIII) method of extreme values to assess the earthquake hazard. A uniform and complete seismic data covering the time span of 120 years (i.e. 1900-2019) is used for the appraisal of earthquake magnitude recurrence in different return periods. The expected largest earthquake magnitudes during the next 20 (M20), 50 (M50) and 100 (M100) years with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (PNBE) are spatially mapped to create a brief atlas of short- and long-term regional earthquake magnitude recurrence hazard maps. The obtained results of maximum magnitude during 20, 50 and 100-years are expected to exceed the values of Mw 7.1, 7.7 and 8.2, respectively in two prominent blocks of eastern Nepal and Arunachal Himalaya in the examined region. These blocks are also more prominent for the results of 20, 50 and 100 years earthquake magnitudes with 90% PNBE i.e. return periods of 190 (M190), 475 (M475) and 950 (M950) years along with two additional blocks in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS) and Yadong-Gulu rift near Lhasa in the Tibet Plateau. These earthquake magnitudes are expected to exceed Mw 8.5, 8.6 and 8.9 during the next 190, 475 and 950 years, respectively in these blocks. The spatial distribution of earthquake hazards in the region reveals the complex seismotectonic setup and high crustal heterogeneity.
... Seismicity in the Himalaya has been discussed by various researchers in the past (Roy and Mandal, 2012;Srivastava et al. 2013;Verma and Bansal, 2013;Mohapatra et al. 2014;Gupta, 2015;Kumar et al. 2016;Gupta et al. 2020;Khan et al. 2018;Dasgupta et al. 2019). ...
The September 18, 2011 earthquake of M 6.9 has been critically examined and found to be associated with episodes of precursory swarms, quiescence, mainshock and aftershocks. This earthquake was clearly preceded by precursory swarm activity for almost one year followed by quiescence for one year. The precursory swarm and quiescence period consists of four earthquake swarms and one foreshock event of magnitude (mb ≥ 4.5) in the epicenter
... Seismicity in the Himalaya has been discussed by various researchers in the past (Roy and Mandal, 2012;Srivastava et al. 2013;Verma and Bansal, 2013;Mohapatra et al. 2014;Gupta, 2015;Kumar et al. 2016;Gupta et al. 2020;Khan et al. 2018;Dasgupta et al. 2019). ...
The September 18, 2011 earthquake of M 6.9 has been critically examined and found to be associated with episodes of precursory swarms, quiescence, mainshock and aftershocks. This earthquake was clearly preceded by precursory swarm activity for almost one year followed by quiescence for one year. The precursory swarm and quiescence period consists of four earthquake swarms and one foreshock event of magnitude (mb ≥ 4.5) in the epicenter preparatory zone of the 2011 Sikkim earthquake. The 2011 Sikkim earthquake recorded about five aftershocks of magnitude (mb) ≥ 4.5 between 2011 and 2014 for the same region. This study shows that the 2011 Sikkim earthquake followed the same sequence of activities as observed for other major earthquakes in the northeast Himalaya.
... In a place like Ayodhya, we need to consider the largest earthquake expected locally as well as distant effects like site response due to a major (Mw8) earthquake originating in the Himalayan thrusts. Considering the differences in the tectonically active Himalaya region with that of island arc, past seismicity and the extent of respective locked zones, Srivastava et al. (2013c) showed that the largest magnitude of an earthquake in the Himalayan region cannot be as large as in subduction zone. Srivastava et al. (2013a) further divided the Himalayan region into two types of seismic gaps. ...
Seismic considerations about the tall statues (taller than 100 m) in the world have been brought out. These include the tall structures of Gautam Buddha in China and Myanmar, Sardar Patel statue and proposed ones at Mumbai (Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj) and Ayodhya (Sri Ram) in India. Emphasis has been given to the proposed statue at Ayodhya, District Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh due to significant tectonic features and liquefaction potential. Keeping in view the extension of Lucknow fault up to Faizabad ridge or a fault along the Saryu (Ghagra) river near the junction of Faizabad ridge and adjoining alluvium, maximum magnitude of earthquake near the site has been assessed as 6 making this area near seismic zone IV instead of zone III according to the seismic zoning map prepared by the Bureau of Indian Standards. In addition, a great earthquake (Mw 8) originating in the Himalayan thrust may generate secondary meizoseismal area near Ayodhya on the banks of river Saryu with a possibility of liquefaction. A range of possible scenarios are discussed with respect to the peak ground motion (PGA) at the proposed site. However, there is a need for further investigations for its reliable estimate.
