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We provide a framework to disentangle the role of preferences and beliefs in health behavior, and we apply it to compliance behavior during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich data on subjective expectations collected during the spring 2020 lockdown in the UK, we estimate
a simple model of compliance behavior with uncertain costs a...
Contexts in source publication
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... This first lockdown remained effective until early June 2020, when the restrictions began to be gradually lifted, a few weeks after Johnson's announcement of a conditional phased lifting plan which was aired on May 10th. A detailed timeline is displayed in Figure A1 of the Supplementary Appendix. "Stay home" was the single most important message and rule citizens were given by the UK authorities during the first lockdown. ...
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... own household. A "Stay home" message was texted to all registered mobile phones in the United Kingdom ( Figure 1); the ubiquitous logo is shown in Figure 2. In practice, the stay-home rule was applied with varying specifics and bindingness across the following four main categories of citizens: ...
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... percent chance that the person would contract the Coronavirus (with or without symptoms) over the next 4 weeks. To illustrate, Figure A10 shows the survey screen with the question eliciting the subjective probability of contracting the Coronavirus over the next 4 weeks under the four compliance conducts. The display is similar to that for elicitation of compliance probabilities, with the difference that in this case the four probabilities do not need to some up to one. ...
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... The last three columns display the sample mean and standard deviation of the within-respondent differences in subjective probabilities across pairs of actions, which display a similar pattern. These statistics are also shown graphically in Figure A12 of the Appendix. ...
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... our baseline survey, we elicit respondent's beliefs about the proportion of people living in their LA who will follow each of the four actions A1-A4 in the subsequent four weeks. We additionally elicit respondents' subjective probabilities of following actions A1-A4 under alternative hypothetical 64 The figures showing the empirical distributions of the amount needed to make individuals indifferent between their optimal choice and never leaving home disaggregated by respondent's characteristics are provided in the Supplementary Appendix, Figures A13, A14 and A15. ...
