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Contribution of land-use types to the difference between potential and actual biomass stocks a, Potential and actual biomass stock per unit area per land-use type for the assessment based on FRA (dark colours) and ref. 16 (light colours). Circle size is proportional to the global extent of the individual land use type. The diagonal line indicates the 1:1 relationship between actual and potential biomass stocks (no change, green colour). b, Relative contribution of land-cover conversion and land management to the difference between potential and actual biomass stocks, calculated on the basis of the assessments based on FRA and ref. 16. ‘Ambiguous’ denotes cases attributed differently in the two assessments (for absolute values refer to Extended Data Table 1). PowerPoint slide Source data
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Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land...
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... The main cause of biodiversity decline has been the destruction of species' habitats (Xia et al., , 2023. Affected by changes in land use, anthropogenic disturbance, and climate change (Barber et al., 2022;Davison et al., 2021), global vegetation biomass has decreased by 50% (Erb et al., 2018), and wild mammal biomass has declined by more than 75% ( Bar-On & Milo, 2018). ...
Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for in situ biodiversity conservation and conservation decision‐making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black‐billed capercaillie, 102,623 km²; black grouse, 162,678 km²; wolverine, 63,410 km²; moose, 140,287 km²; sable, 112,254 km²; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km²; lynx, 139,912 km²; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km². Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km², and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost‐effective multi‐species protection.
... The greatest impact of the CO2 diurnal effect obviously appears over regions with strong biological activities as seen from a diagnostic map of CO2 mole fractions simulated at the model surface level with the inverted response of the diurnal effect across the world (Fig. 9). Averaging out the diurnal variations in the biosphere flux 425 model FLUXCOM has led to overestimation of CO2 mole fractions, largely over the temperate areas where a large amount of carbon is stored in the temperate forests in North America, Europe, Eastern Asia in the Northern Hemisphere as well as over the rainforests of South America and Australia in the Southern Hemisphere (Erb et al., 2018). ...
Ignoring the diurnal cycle in surface-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes leads to a systematic bias in CO2 mole fraction simulations sampled at daytime, because the daily mean flux systematically misses the CO2 uptake during the daytime hours. In an atmospheric inversion using daytime-selected CO2 measurements at most continental sites and not resolving diurnal cycles in the flux, this leads to systematic biases in the estimates of the annual sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of this diurnal cycle effect on the annual carbon fluxes estimated with the CarboScope (CS) atmospheric inversion at regional, continental, and global scales for the period of time 2010–2020. Biogenic fluxes of hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) obtained from the data-driven FLUXCOM estimates are used in the inversion together with global and regional atmospheric transport models. Differences between CO2 mixing ratios simulated with daily averaged and hourly NEE range between around -2.5 and 7 ppm averaged annually throughout a site network across the world. As a consequence, these differences lead to systematic biases in CO2 flux estimates when ignoring the diurnal variations of the CO2 flux in the atmospheric inversions. Although the impact on the global average of estimated annual flux is negligible (around 2 % of the overall land flux of -1.79 Pg C yr-1), we find significant biases in the annual flux budgets at continental and regional scales. For Europe, the annual mean difference in the fluxes arising from the diurnal cycle of CO2 represents around 48 % of the annual posterior fluxes (0.31 Pg C yr-1) estimated with CarboScope-Regional (CSR). Furthermore, the differences in NEE estimates calculated with CS increase the magnitude of the flux budgets for some regions such as northern American temperate and northern Africa by a factor of about 1.5. To the extent that FLUXOM diurnal cycles are realistic at all latitudes and for the station set used in our inversions here, we conclude that ignoring the diurnal variations in the land CO2 flux leads to overestimation of both CO2 sources in the tropical lands and CO2 sinks in the temperate zones.
... In Europe, the long history of land use means that the term is more appropriately interpreted as referring to forests that are long unlogged and have reached a level of maturity including many with old-growth characteristics and a high degree of naturalness and ecological functioning, without implying that there was never human disturbance [19][20][21] . Compared to secondary forests managed for commodity production, these primary forests have the highest levels of ecosystem integrity 22 and store the largest carbon stocks for a given forest type and environmental conditions, because of the relationship between high biomass in large trees and total biomass density [23][24][25][26] . ...
... We estimated the potential for carbon stock gain by regrowing secondary forests to be more than double the current stock, with an additional 12,659 MtC (46,415 MtCO 2 ) ( Table 2(2)). Similar results have been reported, including modelling of European forests using estimated maximum carbon stock in broadleaf forests of 170 tC ha −1 (compared to our site measurements of 187 tC ha −1 ) and in conifer forests of 130 tC ha −1 (current study 145 tC ha −1 ) 86 , and estimated 42-47% carbon stock loss due to degradation in the land sector 25 . Based on historical and ecological sources, carbon storage of temperate deciduous/ mixed forests was estimated at about half of the potential storage 87 . ...
Carbon accounting in the land sector requires a reference level from which to calculate past losses of carbon and potential for gains using a stock-based target. Carbon carrying capacity represented by the carbon stock in primary forests is an ecologically-based reference level that allows estimation of the mitigation potential derived from protecting and restoring forests to increase their carbon stocks. Here we measured and collated tree inventory data at primary forest sites including from research studies, literature and forest inventories (7982 sites, 288,262 trees, 27 countries) across boreal, temperate, and subtropical Global Ecological Zones within Europe. We calculated total biomass carbon stock per hectare (above- and below-ground, dead biomass) and found it was 1.6 times larger on average than modelled global maps for primary forests and 2.3 times for all forests. Large trees (diameter greater than 60 cm) accounted for 50% of biomass and are important carbon reservoirs. Carbon stock foregone by harvesting of 12–52% demonstrated the mitigation potential. Estimated carbon gain by protecting, restoring and ongoing growth of existing forests equated to 309 megatons carbon dioxide equivalents per year, additional to, and higher than, the current forest sink, and comparable to the Green Deal 2030 target for carbon dioxide removals.
... Meanwhile, land-use change is usually categorized into two types: natural-induced and human-induced driven [31]. Although current studies have explored the response of their carbon stocks to land-use change at regional, national, and global scales [32][33][34][35], they have not differentiated the difference in the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to naturally induced and human-induced land-use change. Therefore, distinguishing and clarifying the magnitude of this difference is of great theoretical importance. ...
Land-use change is an important factor affecting terrestrial carbon balance, and it is crucial to explore the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to land-use change, especially in the Songnen Plain, which faces a fierce conflict between the rapid growth of production activities and ecosystem degradation. In this study, we measured soil organic carbon and vegetation biocarbon stocks in the Songnen Plain based on IPCC-recommended methodologies, and explored the characteristics of carbon stock changes in land-use trajectories, land-use drivers, and specific land-use change scenarios (cropland cultivation, returning cropland to forests, the expansion of land for construction, deforestation, greening, and land degradation). The results showed that soil organic carbon stock in the Songnen Plain decreased by 1.63 × 105 t, and vegetation biocarbon stock increased by 2.10 × 107 t from 2005 to 2020. Human factors and natural factors jointly contributed to the land-use change, but the extent of the role of human factors was greater than that of natural factors. The increase in land-use trajectory led to the decrease in soil organic carbon stock and the increase in vegetation biocarbon stock. There was no difference in the effects of human-induced and natural-induced land-use changes on vegetation biocarbon stocks, but the effects on soil organic carbon stocks were diametrically opposite, increasing by 43.27 t/km2 and decreasing by 182.02 t/km2, respectively. The reclamation of arable land, returning cropland to forests, and greening led to a net increase in terrestrial carbon stocks (+813,291.84 t), whereas land degradation, deforestation, and land-use expansion led to a decrease in terrestrial carbon stocks (−460,710.2 t). The results of this study can provide a reference for the adjustment of land-use structure and the increase in terrestrial carbon stock in the Songnen Plain.
... There is a trade-off between storing carbon in the biosphere and producing land-intensive products: more production usually implies less storage (Erb et al., 2018). Examining this trade-off can help understand the physical limitations of the land-use sector's contribution towards mitigating climate change, e.g. to reach the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target (Roe et al., 2019). ...
The Climate-responsive Land Allocation model with carbon Storage and Harvests (CLASH) is a global, biophysical land-use model that can be embedded into integrated assessment models (IAMs). CLASH represents vegetation growth, terrestrial carbon stocks, and production from agriculture and forestry for different land uses in a changing climate. Connecting CLASH to an IAM would allow the consideration of terrestrial carbon stocks, agriculture and forestry in global climate policy analyses. All terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon dynamics are comprehensively described at a coarse resolution. Special emphasis is placed on representing the world's forests. Vegetation growth, soil carbon stocks, agricultural yields and natural disturbance frequencies react to changing climatic conditions, emulating the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Land is divided into 10 biomes with six land-use classes (including forests and agricultural classes). Secondary forests are age structured. The timing of forest harvests affects forest carbon stocks, and, hence, carbon storage per forest area can be increased through forest management. In addition to secondary forests, CLASH also includes primary ecosystems, cropland and pastures. The comprehensive inclusion of all land-use classes and their main functions allows representing the global land-use competition. In this article, we present, calibrate and validate the model; demonstrate its use; and discuss how it can be integrated into IAMs.
... This could also exacerbate the observed decline in WY and BR (Table S1). Additionally, industrial activities, mainly focused on energy development and utilization, have undoubtedly enhanced carbon emissions in the region, thereby impairing the net CS of regenerated vegetation [84,85]. Consequently, an alternative and more realistic reason is that human activities have simultaneously impaired both the water-related functions and net carbon sink benefits, and reinforced their interactions. ...
Large-scale vegetation restoration has caused complex changes in ecosystem service (i.e., ES) interactions. However, current analysis on the spatial interactions of ESs and their driving mechanisms remains deficient, limiting the adaptive management in vegetation restoration areas. This study focused on a representative restoration area (Yan’an) to analyze the relationships among carbon sequestration, water yield, baseflow regulation, and soil conservation from 1990 to 2020. Employing the bivariate boxplot and spatial autocorrelation methods, we identified the overall changes and spatial patterns of ES interactions. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (i.e., GTWR) model was applied to elucidate the driving factors of these spatial ES interactions. The results indicated the following: (1) Over the past three decades, synergies between carbon sequestration and water yield emerged as the joint results of spatial ‘low–low’ interactions and ‘high–high’ interactions between the two ESs, while other ES pairs generally exhibited comparatively weaker synergies, due to their spatial ‘low–high’ interactions in southern semi-humid areas. (2) In the northern semi-arid areas, both fractional vegetation cover (i.e., FVC) and climatic factors consistently exerted negative influences on all ‘low–low’ ES interactions, which caused a reduced area in synergies, while in the southern semi-humid areas, FVC suppressed the ‘low–high’ trade-offs between ESs, indicating the adaptability of grassland restoration efforts. (3) The impact of human activities on ES interactions has increased in the last 10 years, and exhibited positive effects on the ‘low–low’ ES interactions in northern semi-arid areas. However, the expansion of trade-off between soil conservation and carbon sequestration warrants attention. This study offers important insights into understanding the spatial interactions among carbon, water, and soil-related ESs in drylands.
... Values below these thresholds were classified as both low density and low biomass for a given stand for the taxa in question, and when they occurred together, no color was assigned to those grids. We selected our minimum simulated biomass thresholds in our analyses with a general consideration for the global values reported by Erb et al. (2017). For our minimum density thresholds, we picked a high enough number that would allow us to concentrate only in places where the taxon being analyzed established populations of higher number of individuals (including seedlings) than our minimum density threshold. ...
At the current juncture with climate change, centennial projections of species distributions in biodiversity hotspots, using dynamic vegetation models may provide vital insight into conservation efforts. This study aims to answer: (1) if climate change progresses under a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic emissions for this century, how may the forest ranges be affected? (2) will there be potential regional extinctions of the taxa simulated? (3) may any site emerge as a potential refugium? Study Area: Anatolian Peninsula and its surroundings, longitudes 24–50° E, latitudes 33–46° N. Time Period: 1961-2100. Major Taxa Studied: 25 woody species and a C3 grass-type. Method: Keeping a spatial window large enough to track potential changes in the vegetation range and composition especially in the mountain ranges within the study area, we parameterized a process-based regional-to-global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS v 4.1), forced it with ERA5-Land reanalysis for the historical period, and five different bias-corrected centennial global circulation model (GCM) datasets under SSP5-8.5, and simulated the dynamic responses of key forest species. Bivariate spatio-temporal maps from the simulation results were constructed for final analysis. Results: A significant increase in woody taxa biomass for the majority of our study area, towards the end of the century was simulated, where temperate taxa with high tolerance for drought and a wider range of temperatures took dominance. The mountain ranges in our study area stood out as critical potential refugia for cold favoring species. There were no regional extinctions of taxa, however, important changes in areal dominance and potential future forest composition were simulated. Main Conclusions: Our simulation results suggest a high potential for future forest cover in our study region by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario, sans human presence, with important changes in vegetation composition, including encroachment of grasslands ecosystems by woody taxa.
... Forests also produce timber and store carbon, particularly when manufactured into durable harvested wood products (HWP) (Johnston and Radeloff, 2019;Zhang et al., 2020). While some studies have found that reducing harvests could increase carbon stocks (Erb et al., 2018;Skytt et al., 2021), this potential is limited by the societal demand for forest products as they also provide additional climate benefits when substituted for more greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive energy and materials such as fossil fuels and concrete (Roebroek et al., 2023) or by avoiding the potential leakage impacts that could result if forest management and harvest regimes change elsewhere (Pan et al., 2020). ...
... Vegetation is a vital component playing a crucial role in regulating the global carbon balance (Erb et al., 2018;Ge et al., 2021;Gao et al., 2022). Vegetation provides many of the essential ecosystem services. ...
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is mainly manifested by severe droughts and rainfall decrease. These effects are multiple and vary from one region to another around the world including rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and degradation of the natural flora. The Zarat region (Gulf of Gabes) is notable for its climate variation, shallow waters, high levels of temperature and salinity. Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this coastal protected region under climate change scenarios is important for projection to the whole ecosystems. The Maxent model is used to predict the potential distribution of plant groups and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) classes for many future time-periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) under different climate change scenarios in the Zarat region. Main results indicate that variables related to precipitation and temperature are more significant for predicting plants and SAVI classes distributions. Our findings can provide scientific basis for the dryland sustainable management and for plant community's behavior under climate change.
... LULC changes involve the transformation of land use and are the result of complex interactions between people and the physical environment [4]. Changes in LULC, especially in developing countries [5,6], have resulted in the reduction of other important natural resources including vegetation, soil, and water [7][8][9][10]. Moreover, LULC changes are closely related to sustainable socio-economic development. ...
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are among the global changes resulting from human activity that have the biggest impacts on the ecosystem and the surrounding environment. Detecting and mapping changes in LULC in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam is critical for sustainable development, planning, and management. This study applies the supervised classifier maximum likelihood algorithm in ArcGIS 10.8 software to detect changes in LULC observed in the study area in the period 2000–2020 using multivariate satellite data. For each satellite scene, we applied supervised classification and spectral indices (NDVI-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and NDWI-Normalized Difference Water Index) for the classification and assessment of LULC changes. Areas obtained from Landsat 5 TM for 2000 and 2010 and Landsat 8 OLI for 2020 were checked for accuracy using kappa coefficients of 0.882, 0.891, and 0.915, respectively. The area was classified into five main LULC classes including agriculture, water bodies, forest, settlement, and bare soil/rock. The LULC status and change maps created in ArcGIS 10.8 show a significant change in LULC. The settlement class has increased continuously for 20 years from 128.09 km2 (2000) to 300.30 km2 (2020); the agricultural land class has increased by 124.96 km2 in the period 2000–2020. The remaining three classes, forest, water bodies, and bare soil/rock, all decreased in area during this period. These LULC changes pose a serious threat, impacting and disturbing the environment. The results of this study can be used in management and planning of future land use in the area.
