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Comparison of the future irrigation water supply reliability before and after the reservoirheightening project based on RCP 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 (b) scenarios. The red dot line is the standard for evaluating reservoir' water supply safety. The periods of 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s include 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively.
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Drought has been frequently occurring in South Korea due to climate change. Analyzing the water supply capacity of the water resource system provides essential information for water resource management. This study evaluates the future water supply capacity of the Gwanghye (GH) agricultural reservoir based on the representative concentration pathway...
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Context 1
... 3 lists the simulated water storage results under the condition of supplying only irrigation water from the GH reservoir before and after the dam heightening project. Figure 6 compares the irrigation water supply capacity before and after the project for each RCP scenario. For the reservoir's water supply capacity, the water supply stability was evaluated based on the ten-year drought frequency (90% of water supply safety) of the Korean agricultural reservoir design standard. ...
Context 2
... water shortage quantity after heightening tended to decrease, which highlights the inability of the reservoir-heightening project to prevent reservoir depletion completely. A study from Cambodia [38] predicted that a decrease in runoff would reduce water Figure 6. Comparison of the future irrigation water supply reliability before and after the reservoirheightening project based on RCP 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 (b) scenarios. ...
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Citations
... With the seasonal changes in precipitation, the lakes in the Korean Peninsula have large inter-and intra-annual variability. Because of the high seasonal variability in precipitation and large demands on water for the paddy rice fields (rice is the main staple), many small lakes were constructed across the Peninsula 19,30,31 . The tendency in the Peninsula that the dry season is drier, and the wet season is wetter has caused South Korea to increase the height of the agricultural reservoirs 30 . ...
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... The tendency in the Peninsula that the dry season is drier, and the wet season is wetter has caused South Korea to increase the height of the agricultural reservoirs 30 . Additionally, the Korean Peninsula is under a distinct political system and the economic status between the two countries brings different lake management 30,[32][33][34][35] . In this context, spatiotemporal lake area changes in the Korean Peninsula should be characterized for a better understanding of how lake areas have been changed under such a complex situation. ...
Water resources in lakes of the Korean Peninsula play a significant role in society and ecosystems in both South and North Korea. This study characterized spatiotemporal changes in the lake area during the dry season (March–May) in the Korean Peninsula over the last 40 years. The satellite images (Landsat 5–9) were used to derive annual areas of 975 lakes during the dry season from 1984 to 2023. Our analysis indicated that the MNDWI is the optimal remote sensing-based index for delineating lake areas in the Korean Peninsula, with an overall accuracy of 92.3%. Based on the selected index, the total lake areas of the dry seasons have increased from 1070.7 km² in 1984 to 1659.3 km² in 2023, mainly due to newly constructed dam reservoirs. While the detailed changes in lake area vary, we found divergent results based on their sizes. The large lakes (> 10 km²) showed their area increased by 0.0473 km² (0.1%) every year and have more influences from climate change. On the contrary, the small lakes (≤ 10 km²) have area decreases by 0.0006–0.006 km² (0.15–0.5%) every year and have less influence from climate change. This study shows that the spatiotemporal lake area changes are determined by either climate change or human activity.
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Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts. A. Qudus et al. / Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 56(12) 955-967 956
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Agricultural water is affected by climate change and water management. Agricultural reservoirs are increasing demand on the environmental water supply because the Korean government has recently implemented an integrated water resource management policy. However, agricultural reservoirs are still in operation solely to supply agricultural water. To examine sustainable agricultural water management under climate change, we analyzed the strategy of operating regulations to efficiently distribute agricultural water as environmental water. We simulated the agricultural reservoir operation, analyzing its water supply capacity by applying operation regulations. The simulation predicted that future water supply capacity would decrease if the existing operation were maintained, and agricultural reservoir operation will be necessary in the future. The proposed reservoir operating strategy decreased the maximum water shortage and number of water shortage days compared with the existing operation with the required water supply. Our results can contribute to agricultural reservoir operation strategies and sustainable water management in response to climate change and provide decision-making guidance on water distribution for environmental use in response to water management policy changes.
... This decrease in disease could also be associated with shifts in the pathogen population toward reduced virulence or changes in climate. Given the favorability of high temperatures and heavy rainfall to bacterial pustule development, decreased disease would more likely be an outcome of water restriction and drought events in agricultural areas than warming temperatures (Lee and Shin, 2021). Our survey data also indicated that the incidence of bacterial pustule in Korea over doubled between 2016 and 2017. ...
Xanthomonas citri pv. glycines (Xcg) is a major pathogen of soybean (Glycine max) in South Korea, despite the availability of soybean varieties with some resistance. We conducted a nationwide survey of the incidence and severity of bacterial pustule caused by Xcg. The percentage of infected fields was 7% to 17% between 2015 and 2017. We characterized the diversity of a nationwide collection of 106 Xcg isolates based on avrBs3 banding patterns. The isolates fell into 11 groups, each represented by a type strain; only two of these were similar to isolates collected from 1999 to 2002. The diversity of Xcg strains increased and the dominant strains changed between 1999 and 2017, with three new type strains comprising 44% of the isolates examined in 2012 to 2017. Pathogenicity tests did not show evidence for a shift in the races or aggressiveness of Xcg strains. Korean soybean cultivars, including the widely-grown Daewon cultivar, were susceptible to the 11 new type strains. The cultivar CNS, which carries the rxp resistance gene, was susceptible to most type strains, including two representing 83% of the Korean Xcg strains. In contrast, Williams 82, which also carries rxp, showed resistance to at least five type strains. Collectively, these results suggest that Williams 82 has resistance loci in addition to rxp. The widespread distribution of Xcg, the high virulence of the current endemic strains, and the low resistance of most Korean soybean cultivars collectively favor widespread disease in Korea in years that are favorable to pustule development.
The four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios presented in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is still widely used by researchers to assess the future effects of climate change in water resources management. However, the lack of providing scientific basis in the selection and application of climate scenarios in numerical models can further increase the uncertainties in the results. Therefore, this study aims to present an analytical and practical methodology for the selection of the representative climate scenario at Yongdam watershed. Based on the findings presented in this study, RCP6.0 scenario best represented the daily minimum temperature at Yongdam watershed for the past decade; the daily precipitation was best represented by RCP4.5 scenario. Furthermore, all four climate scenarios had the tendency to overestimate the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, which is an important factor that should be considered in the selection of climate scenarios. The results and methodology presented in this study can serve as a guideline in the selection of the most applicable climate scenario in other regions.
This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios on five indicators: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and the deficiency of the Gelevard Dam (GD) in Iran. Downscaling was performed from 2020 to 2040 in the future using the Can Ems2-GCM based on different climate scenarios and employing the support vector machines. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the inflow of GD. The cultivation pattern optimization function was performed by utilizing the LINGO software. Similarly, the flow-storage model was created using Vensim software. The results demonstrated the reduction of inflow by 15, 36, and 37% during RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results showed that if the optimal cultivation pattern (OCP) were to be applied, during different climatic scenarios, water supply would not be difficult in the next 11, 5, and 4 years, respectively, yet after that, water shortage would gradually appear. The findings concluded that although the implementation of OCP would improve the five indicators in all water consumption sectors, the GD reservoir would not be able to answer the demands in the future. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement practices to increase water productivity in all sectors.
HIGHLIGHTS
Attention to climate change and its effect on dam operation.;
Combined use of climate change and runoff models.;
Combination of Vensim model and optimizer.;
Choosing the optimal cultivation pattern based on climate change.;
The effect of drought on agriculture is a complicated result of several factors. Several studies have been conducted to evaluate agricultural drought using facility monitoring or statistical data. However, the gap in awareness between the public monitoring of drought and local situations has not been sufficiently reduced. The objectives of this study were to analyze the correlation between a socioeconomic drought information (SEDI) based on Internet news articles and agricultural drought data and to determine whether the SEDI can provide reliable information regarding damage due to agricultural drought. The SEDI was subdivided into the following aspects: water deficit, water security and support, economic damage and impact, and environmental and sanitation impact. The correlation coefficient between SEDI and eight agricultural statistical datasets ranged from 0.74 to 0.89. In moderately dry irrigation and non-irrigation periods, the relationship between SEDI and the agricultural reservoir drought index (RDI) was evidenced by a receiver operating characteristic and an area under the curve of 0.60 and 0.68, respectively. The cross-correlation values between the SEDI and RDI ranged from −0.48 to −0.42. According to cross-correlation analysis, SEDI was able to detect drought one month earlier than the RDI was able to do. Thus, our proposed method can contribute to the development of an impact-based early warning system for agricultural drought management.
