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Knowledge about the value of used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is critical for potential BEV purchasers, corporations, and governments to consider the total cost of ownership for BEVs. This study introduces a new method to evaluate the residual value of BEVs in China and provides the evaluation results. We innovatively separate the power batter...
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... As EV adoption in India is at the nascent stage, uncertainty about resale values is one of the major concerns for stakeholders. With the higher visibility of EVs, technological innovation, improved battery capacity and longevity, maturity of second-life application, and recycling market of used EV batteries, resale anxiety is expected to diminish (69)(70)(71)(72)(73)(74)(75). ...
With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mobility being inextricably linked, the Indian government has introduced a slew of policies to decarbonize transportation and transition toward electric mobility. Though electric vehicle penetration is currently at a nascent stage, India offers the world’s largest untapped market, especially in the two-wheeler (2W) segment. However, high upfront purchase costs, scarcity of charging-enabled parking spaces, and longer charging times have been the major challenges in accelerating electric two-wheeler (e-2W) adoption in India. Addressing these issues, battery swapping is an alternative fast refueling option that eliminates wait time for charging, makes better use of land, and promises increased available run time. This paper analyzes the status of e-2W adoption, their total cost of ownership (TCO), and the growth trajectory of e-2Ws in three different scenarios of sales penetration to estimate the battery capacity requirements for battery swapping by 2030. The TCO analysis suggests that e-2Ws are more economical for commercial than private usage because of their higher daily utilization; however, battery swapping makes e-2Ws economical even for private usage. By 2030, the cumulative number of e-2Ws is estimated to increase from 17.4 million with a 20% sales penetration of e-2Ws (pessimistic scenario) to 54.4 million with an 80% sales penetration (optimistic scenario). Noting the additional battery pack requirements for the battery-swapping option, India is estimated to require a staggering figure of 133–291 GWh, 75–162 GWh, and 42–91 GWh of battery capacities under the optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic sales scenarios respectively.
... Nowadays, GV's residual value can be evaluated, but EV's residual value is difficult to evaluate because the majority of EVs are still on the road-i.e., they have not yet been retired (Nealer et al. 2015). Li (2019) indicated that the residual values of BEV and GV are 9% and 16% of the vehicle production cost, respectively. Thus, it is assumed that the residual value ratio of GV, BEV, and FCV were 16%, 9% and 9%, respectively. ...
Promoting the development of electric vehicles (EVs) is regarded as an important measure to ensure energy security, mitigate climate change, and solve the transport sector’s air pollution problems. Nowadays, compared to gasoline vehicles, whether the EVs are more competitive in terms of cost is still a question. There is no consensus achieved since the total cost depends on the development stage of the automobile industry and power generation structure as well as the cost accounting boundary. Many of existing studies did not include the costs occurred in all the stages. In response to this concern, this study estimates the lifecycle cost covering the whole process of production, use, disposal, and infrastructure construction as well as externalities for passenger battery electric vehicle (BEV), fuel cell vehicle (FCV), and gasoline vehicle (GV) by applying the comprehensive lifecycle cost model to China. The results indicate that in 2018, BEV and FCV were more expensive than GV (1.2–5.3 times), but that BEV will become cheaper after 2025, and its cost advantage will be enlarged to $419 (5%) compared to GV by 2030. The lifecycle cost of FCV will be $527 (or 5%) lower than that of GV by 2030. These results clarify that the costs of vehicle production account for the largest proportion in the total lifecycle cost.
... However, electric vehicles have relatively high acquisition costs. Many scientific studies address their cost-effectiveness for households [25][26][27], often through total cost of ownership (TCO) [28,29]. However, electric vehicles also have other problematic aspects in terms of economy and operation; e.g., [30,31] mentions that they still have insufficient charging infrastructure and insufficient capacity of the BEV batteries. ...
This paper focuses on the statistical evaluation of various operating characteristics of electric buses. The data obtained for statistical evaluation come from practice. In this paper, we focus on electricity consumption—an important aspect of electric bus operation. The ambient temperature significantly affects electricity consumption. In this paper, we use applied mathematics—correlation analysis, we accurately identify the effect of temperature on the consumption of the electric bus. Our next goal was to define the relationship between the loss of energy from the battery and driving power. We used regression analysis to describe this relation. Our article also includes an example of the practical use of ANOVA analysis in identifying a statistically significant effect of a particular vehicle on average consumption. We also show results from previous research and compare two different types of electric buses in operation.
... However, also in this case, the researchers cautioned that the research was data-driven source and estimated values of selected vehicle models should be supplemented with other vehicle models and compared with the methods obtained using expert methods in order to fully verify them. Therefore, the presented study cannot fully constitute a basis for drawing conclusions in relation to, for example, geographically different markets, e.g., the European market, where the share of individual models in the total car park, e.g., Tesla, is different than on the American market [71] and provide answers on how they are shaped residual values for the same models in individual market segments. In this context, the procurement of vans and the expansion of vehicle fleets in this category are highly dependent on their profitability and reliable performance, with the total cost of ownership being the decisive factor in correlation with the residual value. ...
Increasing the market share of low-emission vehicles in relation to individual mobility is one of the main postulates of modern transport policy. In the discussion on low-emission and the new structure of the car fleet, the role of new vehicles is emphasized above all, ignoring the importance of the secondary market. In recent years, both in Poland and in other European Union countries, there has been a noticeable dynamic development of electromobility implementation processes in urban areas, the initial effect of which is increasing market accessibility to commercial vehicles with electric EV/BEV, hybrid HEV/PHEV and fuel cell powered FCEV. As in the case of vehicles powered by conventional ICEV fuels, also in relation to those defined as low-emission, their residual value is lost along with the operational process. Information on this variable is important both for the owner of a newly purchased vehicle, which after the period of its operation will decide to sell it as well as to the future buyer. The scientific aim of the study is to analyze the residual values of selected vehicle models from the primary and secondary market, with particular emphasis on stochastic operational phenomena. The subject of the research is to obtain extensive knowledge on the achieved changes in the residual values of low-emission vehicles in relation to ICEVs. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of the commercial program, data approximated from auction portals and own numerical modeling tool based on a neural network was performed. The research sample included, among others, selected models of passenger cars, the purchase offer of which included the choice of a drive unit powered by conventional and low-emission fuels. The use of this method allowed to answer the question whether low-emission vehicles are characterized by a greater or lesser loss of value in relation to conventionally powered vehicles ICEV.
... The model takes the replacement cost method as the basic evaluation method, and optimizes the replacement cost method model [2]. The model includes the evaluation of vehicle residual value rate based on machine learning method, the establishment of residual value rate correction coefficient evaluation system from the physical depreciation, economic depreciation and functional depreciation [3] and the evaluation of vehicle replacement cost based on real vehicle data, thereby establishing the evaluation model of vehicle residual value. ...
In view of the current imperfect second-hand evaluation system for new energy vehicles, there are limitations such as simple evaluation models, strong subjectivity, and large evaluation differences. This paper establishes the residual value evaluation model for operating pure electric vehicles, combining actual vehicle operation and maintenance data and establishes the residual value rate evaluation model based on the XGBoost algorithm and Boosted Trees enhanced algorithm. The multi-dimensional feature data of vehicle type, service time, mileage and region are extracted by feature engineering, and the evaluation system of residual value rate correction coefficient is established based on AHP. Finally, based on residual value rate evaluation model and the residual value rate correction coefficient system model to optimize the replacement cost method evaluation model, thereby constructing a complete residual value evaluation model. The model is based on actual vehicle operating data and machine learning algorithms, which has strong pertinence and real-time for the residual value evaluation of pure electric vehicles.
With the increasing depletion of traditional resources such as oil and the promotion of new energy vehicles by national policies, the production and purchase of new energy vehicles are increasing day by day, but the proportion of new energy vehicles in total vehicle sales is still low compared to the sales of traditional vehicles. Therefore, this paper investigates the influence of consumers' residual value estimation on consumers' purchasing behavior when purchasing new energy vehicles by analyzing consumers' purchasing decisions and producers' production decisions, and finds that: consumers' residual value estimation affects producers' decisions, and for the case where producers sell only one product, the best strategy choice is achieved by comparing different solutions; in ensuring that new energy used vehicles have value, the residual value has a greater impact on consumer purchase, and the sales price will increase with the increase of residual value estimation; new energy vehicle enterprises can increase consumers' willingness to purchase new energy vehicles, enhance the profits of vehicle enterprises, and promote the promotion of new energy vehicles by improving the residual value rate of new energy vehicles.
