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Comparison between the UK income distribution in kUSD/year after tax (obtained from UKDWP 2013) and the distribution of vehicle prices after tax for vehicles purchased in the UK in 2012 (this study, using data from DVLA 2012 and Car Pages 2012, see section 3). The vehicle price distribution population (the y scaling) is scaled by a per capita vehicle ownership factor of 0.44 (to convert units between per vehicle owner and per capita), which corresponds to about 28.3 million vehicles owned by 63.9 million persons in 2012 (DVLA 2012). The two distributions are likely connected.
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The effectiveness of fiscal policy to influence vehicle purchases for emissions reductions in private passenger road transport depends on its ability to incentivise consumers to make choices oriented towards lower emissions vehicles. However, car purchase choices are known to be strongly socially determined, and this sector is highly diverse due to...
Citations
... The FTT suite of models was designed to improve the dynamic representation of innovation of E3ME for specific sectors (60), and often simulate in conjunction with E3ME for policy analysis (see (22,129)). The sectors considered include power (60,130), transport (129,131), steel (33), household heating (132) and agriculture (133). The case study proposed in (32) is one example of the use of the integrated E3ME-FTT model to analyse the power sector in different countries. ...
... All the models considered are designed to address different policy questions linked with innovation and how innovation impacts the energy transition. In general, these models tend to agree that the proper inclusion of innovation in models can generate better results in terms of smooth transition to the green economy, such as lower cost (30,60,131), improved financial stability and economic growth (91,149). In addition, by extending the IPCC-IAM with more detailed representations of economic system, these models can be used both alongside the other IPCC-IAM models or as integrated assessment models of their own kind (22,89). ...
Induced innovation is a multi-faceted process characterized by interaction between demand-pull forces, path-dependent self-reinforcing change, and the cost reduction of technology that occurs with cumulative deployment. By endogenously including induced innovation in energy models, policy analysts and modellers could enable a mission-oriented approach to policymaking that envisions the opportunities of accelerating the low-carbon energy transition while avoiding the risks of inaction. While the integrated assessment models used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC-IAMs) account for induced innovation, their assumptions of general equilibrium and optimality may reveal weaknesses that produce unsatisfactory results for policymakers. In this paper, we develop a menu of options for modelling induced innovation in the energy transition with non-equilibrium, non-optimal models by a three step methodology: a modelling survey questionnaire, a review of the literature, and an analysis of case studies from modelling applications within the economics of energy innovation and system transition (EEIST) programme. The survey questionnaire allows us to compare 24 models from EEIST partner institutions developed to inform energy and decarbonisation policy decisions. We find that only six models, future technological transformations, green investment barriers mode, stochastic experience curves, economy-energy-environment macro-econometric, M3E3 and Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes, represent endogenous innovation—in the form of learning curves, R&D, and spillover effects. The review of the literature and analysis of case studies allow us to form a typology of different models of induced innovation alongside the IPCC-IAMs and develop a decision tree to guide policy analysts and modellers in the choice of the most appropriate models to answer specific policy questions. The paper provides evidence for integrating narrow and systemic approaches to modelling-induced innovation in the context of low-carbon energy transition, and promotes cooperation instead of competition between different but complementary approaches. These findings are consistent with the implementation of risk-opportunity analysis as a policy appraisal method to evaluate low-carbon transition pathways.
... Vehicle prices are roughly lognormally distributed with different means, standard deviations and medians in each country. 29 We accumulate vehicle data in this way since 2013 and have a yearly time series of price (and other characteristics) distributions since 2016 (Ext. Tab. 1). ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce road transport emissions and have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. 1–7 Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, EVs could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), as industry discontinues conventional production chains. 8–10 Here we provide evidence that this tipping point likely lies within the next few years in lead markets of the EU and China, and potentially the US, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. We use a comprehensive dataset over the composition of car sales between 2016 and 2022, tracking 2452 models in 33 countries. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting in 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of EVs. Critically, the variance and lag-1 autocorrelation of fluctuations in ICEV sales have increased, indicating a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. Activating tipping points does not necessarily achieve a sufficiently rapid transition to meet emissions targets. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate ICEVs before 2050.
... The drawback of using time series econometrics to determine energy demand is that it fails to track systematic change as the occurrences of systematic change are limited. Future Technology Transformations (FTT) was developed to address this shortcoming, first in the power sector [39] and then in the passenger road transport [40], residential heating [41], and the iron and steel sectors [32]. FTT builds on evolutionary economics and seeks to mimic the diffusion dynamics of technologies within a sector by considering economic performance, technology lock-ins, substitution frequencies, and sectoral limitations. ...
The iron and steel industry is a large emitter of CO 2 globally. This is especially true for the iron and steel industries in China, Japan, and Korea due to their production volumes and the prevalence of carbon-based steel production. With few low-carbon and commercially available alternatives, the iron and steel industry is truly a hard-to-abate sector. Each of the countries of interest have committed to a net-zero future involving the mitigation of emissions from steel production. However, few studies have investigated the means by which to achieve decarbonization beyond the inclusion of price signalling policies (e.g., carbon tax or emission trading schemes). Here, we use E3ME-FTT:Steel to simulate technology diffusion in the ISI under several policy environments and we investigate the likely impacts on the wider economy. The results show that penalizing carbon intensive processes can incentivize a transition towards scrap recycling, but it is relatively unsuccessful in aiding the uptake of low carbon primary steelmaking. A combination of support and penalizing policies can achieve deep decarbonisation (>80% emission reduction compared with the baseline). Mitigating the emissions in the iron and steel industry can lead to economic benefits in terms of GDP (China: +0.8%; Japan: +1.3%; Korea: +0.1%), and employment (Japan: +0.7%; Korea: +0.3%) with China, where job losses in the coal sector would negate job gains elsewhere, as the exception.
... Hence, investigating the effects of deploying EVs on critical metals requirements and mitigation of transportation GHG emissions is essential. Past studies have explored the GHG emissions mitigation potential and critical material requirements of electrifying transportation in specific countries and regions, including China [22][23][24][25][26][27] , the USA 26,28-34 , Europe 8,26,[34][35][36][37][38] , India 26,39,40 , and the world [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49] , for various road transportation sectors corresponding to passenger vehicles 8,[24][25][26][27][38][39][40]44,45,50 , freight 8,25,31 , light-duty vehicles 8,24,25,27,31,33,39,42,44,45,50 , and heavy-duty vehicles 8,25,39,42 sectors. Despite the efforts made to project the impacts of EV deployment, several knowledge gaps still remain. ...
... Hence, investigating the effects of deploying EVs on critical metals requirements and mitigation of transportation GHG emissions is essential. Past studies have explored the GHG emissions mitigation potential and critical material requirements of electrifying transportation in specific countries and regions, including China [22][23][24][25][26][27] , the USA 26,28-34 , Europe 8,26,[34][35][36][37][38] , India 26,39,40 , and the world [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49] , for various road transportation sectors corresponding to passenger vehicles 8,[24][25][26][27][38][39][40]44,45,50 , freight 8,25,31 , light-duty vehicles 8,24,25,27,31,33,39,42,44,45,50 , and heavy-duty vehicles 8,25,39,42 sectors. Despite the efforts made to project the impacts of EV deployment, several knowledge gaps still remain. ...
... Hence, investigating the effects of deploying EVs on critical metals requirements and mitigation of transportation GHG emissions is essential. Past studies have explored the GHG emissions mitigation potential and critical material requirements of electrifying transportation in specific countries and regions, including China [22][23][24][25][26][27] , the USA 26,28-34 , Europe 8,26,[34][35][36][37][38] , India 26,39,40 , and the world [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49] , for various road transportation sectors corresponding to passenger vehicles 8,[24][25][26][27][38][39][40]44,45,50 , freight 8,25,31 , light-duty vehicles 8,24,25,27,31,33,39,42,44,45,50 , and heavy-duty vehicles 8,25,39,42 sectors. Despite the efforts made to project the impacts of EV deployment, several knowledge gaps still remain. ...
Automotive electrification holds the promise of mitigating transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet at the expense of growing demand for critical metals. Here, we analyze the trade-off between the decarbonization potential of the road transportation sector and its critical metal requirement from the demand-side perspective in 48 major countries committing to decarbonize their road transportation sectors aided by electric vehicles (EVs). Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40–100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909–7513%, 2127–5426%, 1039–2684%, and 1099–2838%, respectively, and grow platinum group metal requirement by 131–179% in the 48 investigated countries, relative to 2020. Higher EV penetration reduces GHG emissions from fuel use regardless of the transportation energy transition, while those from fuel production are more sensitive to energy-sector decarbonization and could reach nearly “net zero” by 2040.
... Others oppose this by revealing a negative impact . Despite that, a well-developed and well-built transportation infrastructure can facilitate communication between different regions of China, effectively save time and cost, and reduce carbon emissions by using environmentally friendly technology (Mercure and Lam, 2015;Bekun, 2022). ...
... When an economy develops its infrastructure, it must face the consequences of environmental challenges as infrastructure development needs resource utilization. Infrastructure improves the economy's overall structure, promotes the economy's growth, and promotes enhanced use of technologies (Mercure and Lam, 2015). Although infrastructure upsurges in growth, it is connected with MF as roads, air, rails, and other infrastructure can produce noise, air, and water pollution that triggers as development intensifies. ...
Depleting scarce resources and environmental deterioration are critical issues to address in the contemporary world. Particularly, China has shown exponential growth in infrastructure construction, international trade, and embodied innovation in the last few years. Aggressive infrastructure-led growth and urbanization have created unremitting pressure on China’s resource consumption. Therefore, this study analyzes the asymmetric impact of resource depletion associated with Chinese infrastructure development and urbanization by controlling the effects of green innovation and economic growth from 1990 to 2018. Consumption-based material footprint (MF) is used to quantify resource consumption from domestic activity. This study employ novel Quantile ARDL approach to integrating aromaticity arising from structural changes, policy shifts, financial or economic shocks, and data abnormality confirmed through preliminary tests. The long-run results show that infrastructure development, urbanization, and economic growth significantly contribute to MF. However, these effects substantially varied across lower, medium, and higher quantiles. The positive impact of infrastructure development is highest for higher quantiles of MF, while the impact of urbanization is highest at lower quantiles. Green innovation significantly decreases the MF, mainly at higher quantiles. Besides, the study validates Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in the long run. Similar results are observed in the shorter run; however, their significance and magnitude are substantially lower due to the long-term transmission of model variables. These results offer valuable policy recommendations.
... The major objective of transportation management is to move product from an origin (i.e., location) to the destination with minimizing cost and reduced negative impact to the environment (Lin 2009;Lin & Ho 2008). Innovation in engine technology for aircraft, locomotives, and trucks can reduce air pollutants and other forms of emissions (Mercure & Lam 2015). Similarly, low combustion chambers can sustainably lower the emissions of NO x , CO 2 , and unburned hydrocarbons. ...
... The advantage with hybrid vehicles is that they have the potential to reduce emission by 25 MtCO 2e per amount by 2050 (Mercure & Lam 2015). The cost of savings will account for R385 per ton, CO 2e for petrol with the use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. ...
South Africa range 15th as the world largest CO 2 emitter contributing to 1.2% of global emission. During the Kyoto Protocol of 2014, South Africa pledged to reduce its emission by 34% and 42% in 2020 and 2025 respectively. This study is a combination of literature review from South Africa with particular emphasis on road transport. The focus was on vehicle emission with reference to Limpopo Province to demonstrate how emissions from primarily the use of diesel and petrol as one of the major contributors to CO 2 emission in the province are vital for the sustainability debate. The methodology used to illustrate the dangers of vehicular emissions were based on statistical estimates from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) inventory report from 2000 to 2010. The information used in assessing the vehicle emission standards in Limpopo were obtained from DEA. The findings from literature reviews in general and the results from the field survey from Limpopo Province shed some light on South Africa's vehicle emissions policy issues and standards. Also the analysis focused on the impact of vehicular fleet management and carbon emissions. The article concludes by drilling down to vehicle users, motor vehicle repairs, engine over haulers, used engine collection and disposal with respect to their roles in vehicle emission and control in South Africa.
... The major objective of transportation management is to move product from an origin (i.e., location) to the destination with minimizing cost and reduced negative impact to the environment (Lin 2009;Lin & Ho 2008). Innovation in engine technology for aircraft, locomotives, and trucks can reduce air pollutants and other forms of emissions (Mercure & Lam 2015). Similarly, low combustion chambers can sustainably lower the emissions of NO x , CO 2 , and unburned hydrocarbons. ...
... The advantage with hybrid vehicles is that they have the potential to reduce emission by 25 MtCO 2e per amount by 2050 (Mercure & Lam 2015). The cost of savings will account for R385 per ton, CO 2e for petrol with the use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. ...
This open access book is interdisciplinary and provides cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional exploration of sustainable development and transportation in South Africa. Drawing on work from different disciplines, the book contributes not only to academia but also seeks to inform urban and regional policy with the view of contributing to the national aspirations of South Africa as espoused in the National Development Plan (NDP), 2030, National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) Draft (2019), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCASS) Draft (2019), Green Transport Strategy for South Africa (2018–2050), and National Transportation Plan (NATMAP), 2050. Adopting a multi-dimensional assessment, the book provides a background for co-production concerning climate change, sustainable development, and transportation in the Global South. The book contributes in its analysis of the institutional and legislative framework that relates to the climate change, skills and knowledge transfer, sustainable development, and transportation in South Africa, as these are responsible for the evolution of the green economy and transport sector in the country. The connections among different sectors and issues such as environment, transport modes, technology innovation, vehicle management and emission control, skills and knowledge transfer, legislative and policy framework, and the wider objectives of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially goals 11 to 13. The success stories relating to climate change, sustainable development, and transportation in South Africa are identified together with the best possible practices that may inform better environmental, urban and regional planning, policy, practice, and management.
... The transportation sector has proliferated and has subsequently maintained its connection and relevance to developed and developing countries' economic growth. However, significant environmental hazards are associated with this increased energy consumption and the subsequent CO 2 emissions in the environment (Mercure and Lam, 2015). Over the last few decades, newer renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind energy, and ocean energy, are being explored as probable alternatives to carbon-powered fuel. ...
The predicament of increasing environmental issues in the last few decades has increased the interest in clean energy sources. Some recently created sources of energy, for example, biomass energy, may decrease environmental pressure. This study aimed to uncover the causality between biomass energy consumption (BEC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in the United States (U.S.) using the bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window estimates method for the period 1981M01 to 2019M12. A one-way relationship was indicated, from biomass energy consumption to CO2 emissions, using the Granger causality test. The durability of the estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been calculated by considering the structural changes. The results show that BEC has both positive and negative effects on CO2 emissions in sub-samples, and CO2 emissions also show a causative relationship with biomass energy consumption. These outcomes can help policymakers consider biomass energy a perfect wellspring of energy to acquire environmental sustainability and energy security.
... A modeler wants to add heterogeneity to evaluate specific detailed policies targeting different groups or inequality, ultimately because the aggregate effect is significantly different from using a mean representative agent (e.g. see Mercure and Lam 2015). IAMs come, as noted, in different shapes and sizes but there are multiple examples of studies where heterogeneity is introduced for this purpose in different frameworks. ...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of 'IAMs'. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.
... The transportation sector has proliferated and has subsequently maintained its connection and relevance to developed and developing countries' economic growth. However, significant environmental hazards are associated with this increased energy consumption and the subsequent CO 2 emissions in the environment (Mercure and Lam, 2015). Over the last few decades, newer renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind energy, and ocean energy, are being explored as probable alternatives to carbon-powered fuel. ...
The recent historical increase in energy-related CO2 emissions globally have put the United States of America's (USA) transportation sector in the spotlight, courtesy of the significantly high pollutant emissions from this particular sector. Taking a cue from this, this paper follows sustainable development goals of the United Nations, and investigates the impact of biomass energy consumption, fossil fuel energy usage, and economic growth (GDP) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transportation sector of the USA. In doing so, this study also employs the Gregory-Hansen cointegration, Hatemi-J cointegration, cointegration regression (FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR), and Spectral Breitung-Candelon causality test for the period between 1981Q1 and 2019Q4. The findings reveal that (i) a significant nonlinear cointegration among the environmental quality determinants is observed, using the threshold cointegration test. This test determines the structural breaks endogenously and combines two cointegration tests, namely the Gregory-Hansen Cointegration and Hatemi-J Cointegration tests; (ii) while the use of biomass energy consumption and real GDP have a negative effect on CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, the rising fossil fuel energy consumption is associated with increasing the CO2 emissions that are stemming from the transportation sector; (iii) in the long-run, biomass energy consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, and real GDP cause CO2 emissions to stem from the transportation sector in the USA at different frequency levels. In general, the current study offers policy insights for the transportation sector of the USA and other similar economies that replicate the same conditions.
