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The Nile Delta has geologically formed the northern coastal plain as a large submarine fan. The River Nile
and tributaries shifted and meandered over time and annually deposited layers of sediment, whilst coastal
erosion also affected the low-lying northern delta (Stanley and Warne, 1993). In the Ptloematic and the
Roman periods wastelands to the n...
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... The main cropping seasons in Egypt are winter (September-November), summer (February-May), and 'Nili' (July-August) (Osama et al., 2017). The Nile contributes more than 95% of the irrigation water in Egypt, which is distributed through complex (interconnected) irrigation networks and drains that reach 20,000 km of canals of various sizes and directions and 600,000 km 2 of agricultural drains (Molle et al., 2013). The irrigation water resources for agricultural activities in Egypt come from the distribution networks of canals, drains, agricultural wells, and reuse of the agricultural wastewater drainage, including treated wastewater, with a total of 38.4 BCM in Tawfik et al. (2021), depicts the interconnectedness between the drainage and irrigation networks in Egypt. ...
... A distinction between the old lands and the new lands is therefore considered in the model. Estimates for the irrigation efficiency at the national level showed large variations (0.44-0.66) in the literature(e.g., ICARDA&AUSAID 2011; MWRI 2011;Molle et al. 2013;Abdelkader et al. 2018). The irrigation application efficiency in the old lands was estimated to be 0.60 from model calibration. ...
Water, food and energy are fundamental for achieving our social, economic and environmental goals. The three domains are inextricably linked and the action in one sector could affect the two other sectors. Achieving the Water, Food and Energy (WFE) nexus balance and improving long-term sustainability through policy interventions is particularly challenging in transboundary river basins because of the dynamic nature and inter-sectoral complexity that may cross borders. Increased pressure from population growth, urbanization and economic growth in riparian countries induce each riparian country to maximise its resources to meet growing water, food and energy demands. Such infrastructure developments and policies in riparian countries could result in basin-wide cooperation or trigger conflicts among the countries. What is more, climate change is likely to exacerbate the risks associated with the hydrologic regime and affect the livelihoods in river basins. The “nexus thinking” shifts the focus from one sector-centric towards multi-centric analytical frameworks to better understand the complexity and improve the management of disparate but interconnected sub-systems. This thesis builds upon the nexus approach and develops a novel systems-based approach to better understand the nexus interactions while considering other related important issues such as long-term uncertainty in river flow regime, socio-economic development, climate change and policy choices in river basins. The framework considers a biophysical water resource model of the river basin and integrated with an agricultural land and crop yield models to account for food production. The energy component includes hydropower generation from the system’s hydropower plants, while energy demand is accounted for energy requirements in water and food sectors. To account for the uncertainty in hydrologic river regime and large variability of the river flows, stochastic simulation is adopted with and without climate change. The population size and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita represent socio-economic characteristics. The water resource model can accommodate future planned infrastructure projects and policies, e.g., improving irrigation efficiency, in the basin. The novel framework is applied for the Nile river basin as a case study. The Nile River basin is a transboundary river basin in East Africa shared by eleven countries and home for about 250 million people. The riparian countries have devised ambitious master plans to utilise potential resources in the basin to meet the growing water, food and energy demands of their populations and sustain their expanding economies. The Nile is vulnerable to climate change that is likely to add further uncertainties to the hydrologic river regime. The – near completion – Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the largest development in the basin and has the potential to deliver regional economic benefits and improve regional cooperation. However, it also has raised regional tensions – between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan – which have gained international attention and could hinder the livelihoods in downstream countries. A System Dynamics model was built for the entire Nile basin to explore the WFE nexus in the basin. The integrated simulation model considers a complete WFE nexus for Egypt while partial consideration for the rest of the countries. The integrated simulation model consists of two main components: (a) partial WFE nexus outside Egypt and (b) complete WFE nexus in Egypt. The two model components are linked through High Aswan Dam (HAD). The first component consists of a water resource model for the entire Nile basin with 72 basin-wide river inflow tributaries. The Nile water resource model incorporates key components that affect the system’s water management such as natural lakes, wetlands, water infrastructure (e.g., dams) and different water users. A simple crop yield model is linked to the Nile water resource model to account for food production from irrigated agriculture in the basin. Hydropower generation can be obtained from hydropower plants in the basin during model simulations. The second component, i.e., complete WFE nexus in Egypt, includes population, gross domestic product, water balance and food balance, while the energy sector includes hydropower generation from HAD and energy demand in food and water sectors. To account for the uncertainty and hydrologic variability in river flow regime, a stochastic simulation is applied. Model simulations are driven by basin-wide stochastically generated data that is either based on historical stream flows (for the case of no climate change) or climate change projection of stream flows (for the case of climate change). The integrated simulation model runs at a monthly time-step. Model calibration and validation showed a satisfactory performance and the model is fit for the purpose for which it is developed. The integrated simulation model was used to investigate the WFE nexus in the basin during the filling and subsequent operation of GERD using basin-wide stochastically generated river flows with no climate change. Results show that GERD filling during above-average years is likely to have a little impact on the downstream countries and it could accelerate the reservoir filling. Conversely, the reservoir filling during dry years is likely to cause significant impacts on the downstream countries. Once GERD comes online, it will generate an average of 15,000 GWh/year. Furthermore, model simulation results suggest further investigation and implementation of dynamic filling strategies that would maximize basin-wide benefits and reduce risks to downstream countries. At the national level, the developed model was used to investigate the impacts of implementing policy measures (e.g., improving irrigation efficiency, developing new water resources, improving land productivity) on the WFE nexus in Egypt. For instance, improving irrigation efficiency and land productivity offer promising outcomes to improve the future of the WFE nexus in Egypt. For instance, achieving the potential crop yields alone would increase food production by 40% and reduce food imports by 32%. The simulation model is also used to explore the cooperation over the GERD and its impacts on the WFE nexus on the downstream countries during the operation phase. Simulation results show that during dry years, the risks to Egypt (e.g., water shortages and food production loss) can be substantially reduced if the riparian countries agree to cooperate and sacrifice for some loss (i.e., loss in hydropower generation) especially during severe droughts. However, a high level of coordination, commitment and trust among the riparian countries are urgently required to achieve cooperation benefits. Basin-wide impacts of planned projects in the riparian countries are also analysed through different developments scenarios (e.g., hydropower development scenario, hydropower and irrigation expansions scenario) with and without climate change. Climate change is investigated here through two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 with two General Circulation Models (GCMs) per each climate scenario until 2050. Projected streamflow of river tributaries under climate change are used to generate basin-wide synthetic streamflow series to drive model simulations. Simulation results demonstrate that the WFE nexus in the basin is less affected by planned developments than climate change. The analysis of climate change scenarios indicated that climate change exhibits large uncertainty and is likely to have significant impacts on the river flow regime, food production and hydropower generation in the basin. The average annual river runoff is likely to reduce by 7% in the RCP 4.5, while RCP 8.5 showed a wider range of change from -40% to +33%. Following river flow changes, hydropower generation and food production in the basin are impacted in a similar way under climate change but with varying degree of change in sub-basins. At the general level, the novel framework developed in this work is a step forward for better understanding of the nexus interdependencies in river basins including but not limited to the challenging case of transboundary rivers. The novel framework addressed key nexus interlinkages and considered important issues such as uncertainty in river flow regimes, climate change and population growth. It can be beneficial in negotiations for transboundary systems, policy analysis, enhancing cooperation and trust among riparian countries, and promoting for cross-sectoral and cross-regional management. Systems-based approaches offer basis to improve our understanding of the interactions between the WFE nexus and other important issues in river basins. Furthermore, they allow for identifying trade-offs and synergies and improve coordination among sectors, countries and interested stakeholders.
... For example, the limitation of rice cultivation in the delta from 1.9 million feddan to 1 million feddan cannot be discussed without a corresponding analysis of the soil salinization/ salt balance and small farmers' livelihoods. Rice cultivation is central in north delta farmers' salinity control and maintaining an acceptable level of salinity in the soil of their plot (Molle et al 2013(Molle et al , 2018. In the same direction, Heggy et al (2021) did not discuss the difference between water-use efficiency on the plot and at a system level. ...
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling and operation is a highly sensitive issue for Egypt and Sudan. A recently accepted manuscript by Heggy et al (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 074022) assessed the water deficit for Egypt based on different scenarios for the first filling of GERD lake and estimated 31 billion cubic meters per year under a 3-year filling scenario. We would like to present grossly mischaracterized assumptions, inaccurate data, and controversial conclusions found in this accepted manuscript through this rebuttal. Although the accepted manuscript does not include any new analysis of the River Nile Hydrology, the results of previous substantive studies were misinterpreted or ignored. Moreover, we have serious concerns about the basic hydrological assumptions that are the basis for the economic impacts and the potential loss of the Egyptian agricultural lands. The main methodological flaws of concerns are (a) how the deficit is calculated, losses from GERD, especially the evaporation losses that contradict several previous studies (e.g. Wheeler et al 2016 Water Int. 41 611-34; Eldardiry and Hossain 2020 J. Hydrol. 125708; Wheeler et al 2020 Nat. Commun. 11 1-9); (b) neglecting the normal role of High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir and directly linking the deficit of the water budget to an immediate loss of agricultural lands with all other associated exaggerated economic impacts estimates; (c) including highly exaggerated seepage losses from the GERD lake; (d) neglecting the updated situation of Aswan High Dam reservoir levels and the GERD's infrastructure itself, and (e) quantifying the impacts of potential changes of water level on HAD reservoir on the Nubian aquifer. We herein present a direct fact-checking approach including the studies cited in the accepted manuscript. We believe that this critical comment paper can serve as a basis for defending scientific integrity and contributes to cooperation and peace in the region.
... The access also varies over time depending on changes in temperature and changes in water demand and consumption by upstream users. In the latter case, the change also includes changes in the quality of effluents that enter the drains, including the quality of the agricultural drainage, treated wastewater that is pumped into the drains, and discharges from neighbouring households (Molle et al., 2013). Therefore, farmers are constantly learning and adapting to make the best use of scarce resources to support their livelihoods. ...
Understanding the logic behind farmers' choice of adaptive water management practice is important to appreciate the opportunities and challenges they face and to scale targeted solutions effectively. This paper aims to understand the main drivers of change that induce adaptation in water management. The Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework that juxtaposed the within and across micro-, meso-, and macro-level drivers was applied to a case study of the Nile Delta to identify key drivers of change and farmers' adaptive responses. The framework helped in contextualizing key gender, temporal, and spatial dimensions of the drivers, and to identify their individual and interactive effects on farmers' adaptation decisions. We find that farmers' gender-differential water management choices are influenced not only by the individual changes in the three spheres of influence but also their interactions. The study highlights the benefits of using MLP to identify challenges that should often be tackled simultaneously to improve agricultural water delivery and use. We demonstrated that adaptation choices in water management are more sustainable when farmers' decisions are supported by enabling environments, including local regulations, norms, national institutional frameworks, and policies. They are also informed by and responsive to global trends such as climate change and markets.
... In a setting such as the Nile Delta, water quantity in the irrigation canals is much influenced by drain water reuse (this point is elaborated more in Section 3.3.1). Focusing on the differences in water quantity without paying attention to its quality differences is not enough to explain the collective action outcome [52,53]. ...
... Some interviewed respondents report "improving the quality of irrigation water is the responsibility of our state and not our task because it is the state who has to do it". From the state side, improving water quality in the study area demands financial, technological, and institutional capabilities which are beyond the state capacity [52]. Instead, we conceptualize differences in water quality and its quantity as crucial inputs for the factor of water supply in order to understand how both inputs may affect collective irrigation management (Table 1). ...
... Therefore, we assume that the more actions exercised to discipline water shortage, the more information and communication between farmers are required to resolve water inadequacy and emerged conflicts, the lower the value of AWQ assigned to the case. As to AWL, we find that the state reuses untreated agriculture drain water at two sequential phases to substitute water shortage [52]. Phase (A): at the main level Meet Yazid canal (MYZ); Phase (B): at different levels of branch canals (BCs) of MYZ, depending on the BC water shortage degree, i.e., the state does not need to implement Phase (B) in some BCs. ...
Egypt, akin to many countries in the global South, has striven to promote collective management to overcome the challenges of irrigation management since the 1990s. Establishing shared pumping stations (SPSs) has been one of the cornerstones helping farmers better manage water for irrigation. Operating SPSs successfully poses collective action problems, for which there is no single set of solutions. This paper utilizes fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify which conditions or configurations are sufficient or necessary for well-operated SPSs. The study draws on empirical data gathered through semi-structured interviews from 45 cases, located in Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate in Egypt’s Nile Delta. Results show that three different paths are sufficient to ensure well-operated SPSs. These are: (1) the condition of effective rules related to allocation, monitoring, and sanctions; (2) the configuration of small group size of SPSs and large irrigated sizes of SPSs; or (3) the configuration of adequate water supply and appropriate location of the SPS command area. The paper concludes that neither group size nor resource size alone explains the outcome of collective action, while a combination of both factors does. Similarly, an adequate water supply is essential to enhance users’ engagement in collective actions only when resource location characteristics do not provide alternative water sources for irrigation.
... Therefore, there is a high dependence on the drainage water at tail end region. In addition, and based on Molle, et al., (2013), the other characteristics include the high ratio of direct irrigation, against the expected in the carrier canals, and the considerably small ratio of municipal water consumption (3~5% of total water supply). . For water productivity, and based on the same source, Mit Yazid command area is the tenth among the presented irrigation system, which refer to low irrigation efficiency compared to many irrigation networks. ...
MASSCOTE, which is an abbreviation of "MApping Systems and Services in Canals Operations Techniques", is pre-improvement evaluation approach to define the weaknesses of the irrigation networks and the optimal way for tickling these weaknesses. Canal operation is at the heart of the MASSCOTE approach, and modernizing water management is its overall goal. The approach consists of ten steps, which could be categorized into two categories. The first category collects the baseline information to investigate the irrigation network, and the second category introduces the modernization suggestion based on the results of the first part. MASSCOTE is a continuation for the previous efforts of FAO and World Bank, which began by benchmarking and RAP approaches, and it was applied in many irrigation networks in different countries.
The current study applied MASSCOTE approach with a focus on the first category (first five steps) to examine the characteristics of a typical irrigation network in Egypt. Mit Yazid main canal, which representing the paddy areas at the north of Egypt, was selected for the study. The canal serves around 200,000 feddan in El-Gharbiya and Kafr El-Sheikh Governorates. The canal was already improved. However, the evaluation programme did not reveal obvious improvement in water management or obvious improvement in water availability at tail end regions.
The first step (RAP) gives a systematic way to compare different irrigation networks. The main characteristics of Mit Yazid irrigation network was assessed and compared with the characteristics of other irrigation networks all over the world. The other steps, such as capacity, sensitivity, and perturbations examined the irrigation network in details.
The study illustrated the problem of focusing on improving the lowest irrigation level (Mesqas) without paying more attention on improving water management at the highest level (main canal level), and the effect of this on the achievement of the improvement targets.
... 13 Many farmers at the tail end of canals suffer from water shortage, especially those at the end of the irrigation network in Kafr El-Sheikh and Beheira governorates [47]. In the Nile Delta, farmers access additional water sources by drilling wells [48] or irrigating from drains using their mobile pumps [49]. ...
... Farmers cultivating these crops are likely to invest in technology to access water, e.g., by the illegal drilling of wells. According to Molle et al. [48], the use of wells is feasible in the southern Delta part as salinity increases in the northern Delta areas (p. 21). ...
This chapter seeks to provide an overview of the impacts of the reservoir filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the rural poor in Egypt. This requires the analysis of the macro and micro level impacts. To determine the macro level impacts and the micro level implications, three scenarios (4, 6, 8 years) are developed. The macro level assessment shows aggregated water and agricultural land reductions and their subsequent effects on crop value, imports, exports, and employment as well as on government’s policy to safeguard self-sufficiency in strategic crops. For the micro level analysis, the sustainable livelihood framework is used to outline impacts on farmers (landowners and laborers) in governorates with high poverty rates, in Lower and Upper Egypt. The main governorates’ characteristics and farmers’ assets (human, natural, physical, social, financial) and their use in the formulation of livelihood strategies to sustain their livelihoods are presented. The chapter shows that the macro analysis alone does not account for farmers’ strategies dealing with water shortage indicating that the macro level assessment is not sufficient for comprehending dam impacts on the livelihoods of the rural poor and their consequences.
... Spatial variability of drainage water salinity(Al Sayed, 2011) ...
... Spatial variability of drainage water salinity(Al Sayed, 2011) ...
Improving water management in the Nile Delta requires an overall understanding of the functioning of the irrigation and drainage system across different scales (from plot to system level). One particular complex issue is the relationship between those two systems, both in terms of water quantity and quality. Salt concentration in the drains depends on how much water is applied on the fields and how, the type of soil and other parameters. In turn, farmers irrigate from canals but also from drains, and by doing so they bring higher concentration of salts onto their plots. At the macro level the resulting salinity of drainage water at the northern fringe of the Delta has an impact on farmers reusing water in this area, as well as on fisheries located beyond the boundary drain, which include both aquaculture in ponds and wild fisheries in the lagoons. Water quality samples in canals and drains are routinely collected by the Ministry of water resources and irrigation. According to Abdel Dayem (2012) the National Water Quality Monitoring Network covers 106 sites on the drainage canals of the Delta (Figure 1). It is based on continuous monthly data collection by the Drainage Research Institute (DRI). Twenty-four parameters are used in the assessment of water quality. The reference points are mostly located in main canals and drains and are monitored on a monthly basis, which means that the temporal and spatial resolution of this monitoring is rather coarse. It is therefore crucial to get a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of drainage water quality parameters in the Delta. Observations were conducted in the Meet Yazid canal command area to understand the dynamics and movement of salts at several nested scales.
In this chapter we present the different land resources of Egypt, their classification, types and characteristics in the different agro ecological zones of the country. The problems of soil degradation and loss of soil fertility
developed after the Aswan High Dam started controlling the Nile water are clarified, along with the policies used to sustain land productivity and the efforts done to expand the cultivated area of the country. The strategic planning approach to identify ways and means to continue fostering development and modernization of the Egyptian agriculture is discussed. The goal is to achieve food security and improve the livelihood of rural inhabitants through the efficient use of the available resources and the utilization of the geopolitical and environmental advantages of the different agro-ecological regions.
