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This research note presents a dynamic risk assessment model of homegrown terrorists. The model was tested in a study of convicted “homegrown” American terrorism offenders inspired by Al Qaeda's ideology. The New York Police Department model developed by Silber and Bhatt was chosen as the basis for creating a typology of overt and detectable indicat...
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... Existing research has tentatively explored the human side of the problem, and looking into the psychological traits and profiles of people who typically believe misinformation and conspiracy theories provides some insight. Uncertainty, insecurity, alienation, and distrust in authorities have been found to commonly occur in believers in conspiracy theories and misinformation (Kruglanski et al. [8]; Abalakina-Paap et al. [9]; Grzesiak-Feldman [10]; Klausen et al. [11]; Winter and Feixas [12]). Additionally, whether or not someone believes a conspiracy-or generally, a piece of information-depends on pre-existing views on the topic (Dahlke and Hancock [13] p.6). ...
Misinformation is often viewed as an information problem, attributed to people’s poor understanding of consensus-based facts. While this is a contributing factor, we propose that misinformation and conspiracy are simply more engaging explanations for our world. Can we combat misinformation by making facts fun? We present the findings of a controlled experiment testing this hypothesis, in which we tailored messaging about consensus-based information to the communication styles used by three vulnerable cohorts. Our results demonstrate that styled message generated higher engagement from users than the neutral-toned variants. We introduce our theory of the misinformation ecosystem as a way of understanding online communities and their communication styles, and profiles of three personas representative of the cohorts included in our experiment. Our findings suggest that styled messaging for consensus-based information can reach vulnerable fringe communities that are otherwise resistant to external influence, providing considerable implications about possible future interventions to counter misinformation.
... In addition, this process fails to differentiate between those on the verge of extremist violence and those not on the verge of extremism. This model [3] does not consider behavioral dynamics or social ties associated with individuals, nor does it consider those who are excluded. Yet, we do not know whether there are automated methods for keeping track of individual behavior indicators. ...
The world continues to face a growing threat from radicalized violent extremists. Therefore, law enforcement agencies need to be able to identify and assess the risks of large numbers of vulnerable individuals to prevent violent extremism in the future. A system-based approach is presented in this article to achieve the desired goal using machine learning models and Graph pattern matching techniques. this objective technology is described as a 'radicalization detection system,' which assists intelligence analysts in identifying extremists. Additionally, the goal is to develop a computational tool that can discover and track radicalization indicators across large databases as part of a nested effort to demonstrate technological opportunities for a radicalization detection system. As part of this technical section of the tool, a dynamic graph pattern matching approach is used to identify individuals or groups at risk of violent extremism.
... The threat environment A further limitation of existing models is that their applicability is limited to the time frame in which they were developed. This is a particular issue for models built from specific population samples (for example , Borum 2003;Klausen et al. 2016;Silber & Bhatt 2007;Wiktorowicz 2004). Typically, authors focus on the form of violent extremism most applicable to the security climate at a given time. ...
Acts of extreme or mass violence perpetrated by lone offenders have become increasingly common in liberal democracies over the past 20 years. Some describe these acts as politically motivated, while others attribute them to mental disorder or criminal intent. However, there is an increasingly common view that the distinction between political ideology, criminal intent and personal motivation is blurred, and that the violence carried out by these individuals is better understood using the broader concept of grievance-fuelled violence. This work employs a multifaceted analytical approach to develop a holistic model of the processes of grievance development.
... A further limitation of existing models is that their applicability is limited to the time frame in which they were developed. This is of particular issue for models built from specific population samples (for example , Borum 2003;Klausen et al. 2016;Sageman 2008;Silber & Bhatt 2007;Wiktorowicz 2004). Typically, authors who develop models focus on the form of violent extremism most applicable to the security climate at a given time. ...
Acts of extreme or mass violence perpetrated by lone offenders have become increasingly common in liberal democracies over the past 20 years. Some describe these acts as politically motivated, while others attribute them to mental disorder or criminal intent. This has led to the development of distinct research and practice areas focusing on either violent extremism, mass murder, fixation, stalking, or familial and intimate partner homicide. However, there is increasing understanding that the distinction between political ideology, criminal intent and personal motivation is blurred, and that the violence carried out by these individuals is better understood using the broader concept of grievance-fuelled violence. This work is the first to empirically consolidate the existing research in these distinct areas, employing a multifaceted analytical approach to develop a holistic model of the processes of grievance development among those who commit grievance-fuelled violence.
... Data collected from public sources including court documents, analyst reports, and newspapers, are inherently incomplete, which leads to an unconventional dataset. In this work, we use 135 detailed pathways of home-grown jihadists [17] extracted from radicalization trajectories of 335 known American jihadists [44] over 24 behavioral indicators. With its data representation as shown in Figure 1, the blue nodes denote extremists, and the leaf nodes depict respective behavioral indicators connected to extremism. ...
When a sufficient amount of training data is available, Machine Learning (ML) models show great promise for solving problems involving complex and dynamic patterns. Social and behavioral domains are rich with such challenging problems, with complex object data extracted from documents, surveys, etc., and represented in forms such as graphs and trees. However, many social and behavioral data sets are inherently sparse and incomplete. The same data field may be unavailable in different records of a data set due to different causes, e.g., because it was not measured, not known, or simply not applicable to that particular record. Furthermore, collection challenges, cost, lack of participation, small affected populations, etc., result in very small sets of data. Resulting unconventional datasets cannot be directly used with potent approaches such as machine learning. A technique to model and synthesize large sets of such complex data objects while maintaining the same statistical and topological characteristics of original data helps overcome these challenges. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first attempt to synthesize unconventional datasets. We propose a novel feature mapping technique to eliminate data inconsistencies and model data objects from unconventional datasets. The feature-mapped data objects are used to synthesize data using two likelihood approaches, i.e., multi-variate Gaussian and regular vine copulas, and one generative adversarial approach using an adversarial autoencoder (AAE). We demonstrate the robustness of the proposed technique with three real-world datasets representing disparate domains and validate the performance of likelihood and deep-generative approaches with these object synthesis strategies.
... Individuals are most likely to follow the norm of their ingroup (Doosje et al., 2013). According to several studies focusing on conformity and radicalisation, preradicalizers have a strong tendency to match their attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours to social norms due to social pressure, and agreeing to the majority of a group, in this case, terrorist groups (Guadagno et al., 2010;Klausen et al., 2016;Mastors & Siers, 2014). People who conform are often seeking social acceptance and a desire to be 'liked' which is the prominent role of extremist propaganda (Klausen et al., 2016). ...
... According to several studies focusing on conformity and radicalisation, preradicalizers have a strong tendency to match their attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours to social norms due to social pressure, and agreeing to the majority of a group, in this case, terrorist groups (Guadagno et al., 2010;Klausen et al., 2016;Mastors & Siers, 2014). People who conform are often seeking social acceptance and a desire to be 'liked' which is the prominent role of extremist propaganda (Klausen et al., 2016). ...
... Using violence against out-group is a radicalisation strategy to have individuals write or videotape a testament, which makes it harder for them to withdraw. This strategy indicates that radical groups use authoritarian approach (Klausen et al., 2016;McCauley & Moskalenko, 2008;Rinehart, 2009). In support of this, two of the key strategies in propaganda magazines is using tactical language to manipulate the reader and to attract individuals who have similar religious beliefs. ...
This study explores the relationship between extremist propaganda and the process of radicalisation. Two theories of the radicalisation process are explored which include a linear approach and a non-linear approach. The Dabiq magazines published by ISIS were analysed qualitatively to understand the possible link between propaganda and radicalising future ISIS fighters. The findings found that the Dabiq magazines were in line with Sageman’s radicalisation process which is non-linear. All of the magazine issues contained various aspects that fit into the four stages of Sageman’s model which suggests that ISIS is attempting to radicalise future enlistments by using multiple methods within the Dabiq issues.
... Radikalleşme süreçleri terörizm çalışmalarında oldukça yakın bir geçmişe sahiptir. El-Kaide'nin 2004 Madrid ve 2005 Londra terör saldırıları sonrasında hem devletler tarafından karşı politikaların geliştirilmesi hem de çeşitli akademik disiplinler-Dijital Ortamlarda Terörizmin Oyunlaştırılması de bireylerin neden ve nasıl terörist şiddete yöneldiğinin ele alınması, radikalleşme süreçleri konusunda geniş bir literatürün ortaya çıkardı (Dalgaard-Nilesen, 2010;Sedgwick, 2010;Kundani, 2012;Neumann, 2013;Horgan, 2014;Meer, 2014;Richards, 2015;Klausen, 2016;Khosrokhavar, 2017). Literatüre yön veren ilk çalışmalar modellemeler üzerinden yapıldığını görmekteyiz (Moghaddam, 2005;McCauley ve Moskalenko, 2008). ...
Bu makale, terör örgütlerinin video oyunlarıyla kurguladığı şiddet içeren radikalleşme sürecini incelemektedir. Terörizmin oyunlaştırılması olan bu süreçte terör grupları eleman kazanmakta, olası saldırlar için planlama yapmakta, eylem için taktikleri belirlemekte ve finansal gelir elde edebilmektedir. Terör örgütleri günlük olağan yaşam koşullarında gerçekleşen siyasi, ekonomik, kültürel ve benzeri konuları aşırı söylem ve anlatılarla kurgulayarak sanal gerçekliği terörist eyleme dönüştürmektedir. Gelişen internet teknolojisiyle birlikte terör örgütleri video oyunlarını bizzat tasarlamakta veya yazılımsal değişimlerde bulunarak mevcut oyunlarla kullanıcılara ulaşmaktadır. Ayrıca terör grupları oyunlarla birlikte kullanılan bitişik platformlara nüfuz ederek oyun dışında kalan kullanıcıları da etkileyebilmektedir. Bu sayede oyuncularda bilişsel ve davranışsal değişim süreci oyun içi ve dışı alanlarda tetiklenerek şiddet motivasyonu pekiştirilmektedir. Video oyunlarının etkisiyle son yıllarda çok çeşitli ve karmaşık terör eylemleri (okul baskınları, yağmacı terörizm, yalnız kurt saldırıları) gerçekleşmektedir. Makale terörizmin oyunlaştırılmasını radikal ortam kuramı ve öz-belirleme teorisiyle ele almaktadır. Bu kuramlarla bireylerin video oyunlarında görülen terörist radikalleşme sürecine nasıl uyum sağladığı ve bir şeyler yapma isteğinin terörist şiddetin hangi dinamiklerle tetiklendiği analiz edilebilmektedir.
... Other empirical studies, however, not included in Hassan and colleague's (2018) systematic review have involved examinations of what media were found on the computers of convicted terrorists (e.g., Holbrook, 2017;Holbrook, 2019), the volume of media consumed by terrorists (e.g., Capellan, 2015;Gill et al., 2014;Gruenewald et al., 2013;Horgan et al., 2016;Porter & Kebbell, 2011), the interaction between the individual consuming the propaganda and the content of the propaganda itself (e.g., Bouzar & Martin, 2016), the impact of exposure upon attitudinal affinity with an extremist cause (e.g., Ilardi, 2013;Kleinmann, 2012;Koehler, 2014;Turpin-Petrosino, 2002), the impact of exposure upon mobilization to terrorist engagement (e.g., Bazex & Mensat, 2016;Klausen et al., 2016;Reeser, 2011;Riaz & Parvez, 2018), the specific manifestations of radicalizing narratives that prompted engagement in terrorism (e.g., Abbas & Yigit, 2016;Özeren et al., 2014;Sieckelinck et al., 2019;van San, 2018;Wojcieszak, 2009), and the impact of exposure upon mobilization to violent radicalization (e.g., Frissen, 2020) and terrorist behavior (e.g., Böckler et al., 2015;Holbrook & Taylor, 2019). ...
There is an ongoing need for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to detect and assess online posting behaviors of violent extremists prior to their engagement in violence offline, but little is empirically known about their online behaviors generally or the differences in their behaviors compared with nonviolent extremists who share similar ideological beliefs particularly. In this study, we drew from a unique sample of violent and nonviolent right-wing extremists to compare their posting behaviors in the largest White supremacy web-forum. We used logistic regression and sensitivity analysis to explore how users’ time of entry into the lifespan of an extremist sub-forum and their cumulative posting activity predicted their violence status. We found a number of significant differences in the posting behaviors of violent and nonviolent extremists which may inform future risk factor frameworks used by law enforcement and intelligence agencies to identify credible threats online.
... In terms of complex needs, the greatest variety, volume and quality of data exists on traumatic experiences prior to radicalisation (Post, 2000;Stern, 2014;Jasko et al., 2017;Klausen et al., 2016;Speckhard and Ahkmedova, 2006). For example, Bubolz and Simi (2019) provide a number of first-hand accounts of the relationship between early experiences of trauma, the development of mental health problems and the subsequent engagement with violent groups. ...
... First, the timeframe of the entire process, from the first moment of exploration to the final terrorist act, becomes considerably shorter than the average timeframe for offline radicalisation. As a baseline for offline radicalisation, we rely on Klausen et al., who found that the mean timespan for radicalisation is five years while the median was four years and two months (Klausen et al., 2016). Thus, acceleration may have occurred if the timeframe of radicalisation is considerably shorter than five years. ...
How does the internet affect the radicalisation of extreme-right lone actor terrorists? In the absence of an established theoretical model, this article identifies six mechanisms seen as particularly relevant for explaining online radicalisation. Having first reviewed a larger set of relevant lone actor terrorists, the study traces these mechanisms in three selected cases where the internet was reportedly used extensively during radicalisation. The findings show that the internet primarily facilitated radicalisation through information provision, as well as amplifying group polarisation and legitimising extreme ideology and violence through echoing. In all three cases, radicalisation was also affected considerably by offline push-factors that through their presence made extreme online messages more impactful. The results challenge the view that offline interaction is necessary for radicalisation to occur but also the view that online influence itself is sufficient.
