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Average number of individuals and confidence interval of Brosimum rubescens, other woody species, and liana-only regeneration in four classes (seedlings: height B 30 cm; saplings: [ 30 to B 60 cm; poles or young stems: [ 60 to B 200 cm; treelets: height [ 200 cm and diameter \ 5 cm;

Average number of individuals and confidence interval of Brosimum rubescens, other woody species, and liana-only regeneration in four classes (seedlings: height B 30 cm; saplings: [ 30 to B 60 cm; poles or young stems: [ 60 to B 200 cm; treelets: height [ 200 cm and diameter \ 5 cm;

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The long-term dynamics of regeneration in tropical forests dominated by single tree species remains largely undocumented, yet is key to understanding the mechanisms by which one species can gain dominance and resist environmental change. We report here on the long-term regeneration dynamics in a monodominant stand of Brosimum rubescens Taub. (Morac...

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... total species richness varied little (Table 1), except for the treelet size class when lianas were included (cf Fig. 2), there was substantial species turnover through time for all regeneration classes (Supp. Fig. S.3). For instance, we observed: (1) 13 species in the first survey that were not observed in the second; (2) 15 in the second that were not observed in the first; (3) 18 in the second not observed in the third; (4) 14 in the third not observed in the second; (5) eight in the third not observed in the fourth; and (6) 18 species in the ...
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... in the fourth survey that were not observed in the third. This resulted in an average rate of change in species composition of nearly three species per year. Thus, while we find that overall species diversity was remarkably stable, species composition changed substantially, and this holds whether or not lianas are included in the analysis (Supp. Fig. ...
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... of the changes observed for tree seedlings was due to a sharp decrease in the Brosimum rubescens population over time (Fig. 3). There were significantly more B. rubescens seedlings in the first census than in any other, with particularly low densities of seedlings and saplings by the time of the final two surveys (Fig. 3). Over the 21 year period, the proportion of B. rubescens seedlings as a fraction of the total population declined from 82 to 45%. In ...
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... of the changes observed for tree seedlings was due to a sharp decrease in the Brosimum rubescens population over time (Fig. 3). There were significantly more B. rubescens seedlings in the first census than in any other, with particularly low densities of seedlings and saplings by the time of the final two surveys (Fig. 3). Over the 21 year period, the proportion of B. rubescens seedlings as a fraction of the total population declined from 82 to 45%. In addition, B. rubescens seedlings as a fraction of the whole community declined from 85% in 1997 to just 29% in 2018. Part of this relative decline of B. rubescens seedlings was due to increase in the ...
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... significant differences between surveys in each regeneration class (Repeated-Measures PERMANOVA). Note that lianas form a small fraction of woody regeneration early on but become increasingly more important especially in the smallest size classes the forest increased from 1 to 37% (Table 1), with a significant increase in all regeneration classes (Fig. 3). The remarkable gain in liana seedling and sapling relative abundance is thus not only because lianas increased greatly, but also because there was in numerical terms an even bigger reduction of B. rubescens and other tree species in these classes (Fig. ...
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... increased from 1 to 37% (Table 1), with a significant increase in all regeneration classes (Fig. 3). The remarkable gain in liana seedling and sapling relative abundance is thus not only because lianas increased greatly, but also because there was in numerical terms an even bigger reduction of B. rubescens and other tree species in these classes (Fig. ...

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... The temporal and spatial maintenance of B. rubescens monodominant forests is linked to episodic recruitment in response to climatic interference, mainly associated with the impacts of prolonged drought disturbances Despite the morpho-anatomical and physiological attributes and environmental adaptations of B. rubescens, these drought events have caused a drastic reduction in regeneration, which may contribute to its population decline, monodominant and mixed, in the Amazonia-Cerrado transition (Marimon et al. 2012(Marimon et al. , 2020. In this sense, future climatic variations may affect the sensitive balance between mortality and recruitment, affecting the local and regional distribution of B. rubescens. ...
... Drought is an important factor related to the hyperdynamisms of tropical forests, affecting the structure, dynamics, and composition of tree species (Marimon et al. 2012). The regeneration of this species may be conditioned by decreases in the availability of water derived from droughts during and after ENSO events (Marimon et al. 2020). However, B. rubescens also produce larger amounts of seeds during drought periods (Marimon and Fel li 2006), and this strategy may be advantageous for maintaining its dominance The environmental suitability matrices obtained from the CEH-1 scenario were adjusted to the spatial patterns of occurrence reported for B. rubescens within the study area. ...
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Aims Brosimum rubescens, a tree species with a Neotropical distribution, can achieve local monodominance in Southern Amazonia forests. Understanding how and why this species varies across space and time is important because the monodominance of some species alters ecosystems complexity. Here we evaluate the fundamental ecological niche of B. rubescens by species distribution models (SDM), combining predictive environmental variables with occurrence points. We specifically aim to 1) determine how the spatial distribution patterns of B. rubescens vary with different environmental predictive variables, and 2) evaluate the temporal and spatial persistence of B. rubescens in the Neotropics. Methods To generate the SDMs, the predictive environmental variables were incorporated as main components of climatic, hydric and soil variables. ResultsAll algorithms show higher performance in spatial predictions for hydric variables and for the combination of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. We identified that the potential niches of B. rubescens seem to be defined by climatic fluctuations, with the edaphic conditions being predictive variables that are not restrictive of their presence on the evaluated spatial scale. From the LMG (Last Glacial Maximum) to the present, the species seems to have increased its spatial amplitude; however, from the present to the future, predictions suggest that B. rubescens will experience a considerable loss of its range. Conclusions Our findings show the independent and combined effects of different environmental variables, allowing us to identify which limit or facilitate the spatial distribution of B. rubescens . We corroborate the spatial persistence and geographical fidelity of the species' spatial patterns over time.