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Humanity has used and continues to consume in great proportion non-renewable energy resources of the planet such as oil, natural gas and coal in order to fulfil its energy needs. It was only during the past two decades that other sources of renewable energy such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy became somewhat relevant towards electricit...
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... Singapore being a small country (~720 km 2 ) and with a relatively flat terrain, weather conditions do not vary considerably through its land area. Although some districts like Clementi (at slightly higher ground, 50-100 m AMSL) and the Bukit Timah Reserve are rainier than others, the solar irradiance resource is relatively constant, at a typical meteorological year average of 1,631 kWh/(m 2 .yr) (METEONORM, 2013). Thus far, via SERIS' recordings in several areas of the island through the past five years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015), the annual irradiation records have not crossed the ±10% variation thresholds of the TMY. Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) has a weather radar (Selex Model Meteor 1600S-89 Dual Polarization S-Band radar) located at Changi Airport in the Eastern part of the island. This Doppler radar captures images as the one seen in Figure 43, but also earlier in Figure 11. The range of the radar is 70 km. The solar energy resource in Asia is abundant. Figure 44 shows a satellite-derived irradiance map from company GeoModel Solar presenting excellent resource for upcoming PV growth markets such as China, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines (SOLARGIS, 2012). Apart from the presence of rain showers, constant cloud motion and their lower cloud base height in the tropics make it generally difficult to predict irradiance conditions for short-term PV applications. An extreme condition observed frequently during the rainy season is a prolonged precipitation episode across the island due to its small size. Under such condition, PV power output drops virtually everywhere in Singapore, which would need to be compensated by conventional power generators in a future with a considerable share of solar ...
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Humanity is increasingly dependent on energy, which demand grows every year. Renewable energy sources are consolidated alternatives in the market, previously installed on a small scale but now thought as large plants. The correct operation, taking full advantage of the generation potential, depends on studies of the place of implantation, such as r...
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... In 2015, seminal contributions were made by Nobre [90] in the assessment of haze on PV forecasting by combining the persistence [159] and ARIMA [160] models. Persistence is one of the simplest methods relying on time-series data for forecasting when data patterns vary slightly. ...
... In subsequent work, Nobre et al. [89] studied the performance of PV modules in the tropical and highly dense environment of Singapore. The architecture of this study based on Nobre's Thesis [90] is presented in Fig. 9 Fig. 9. Structure of Andre M. Nobre's methodology to forecast PV power generation in tropical climate zone (Figure reproduced from [89,90]). ...
... In subsequent work, Nobre et al. [89] studied the performance of PV modules in the tropical and highly dense environment of Singapore. The architecture of this study based on Nobre's Thesis [90] is presented in Fig. 9 Fig. 9. Structure of Andre M. Nobre's methodology to forecast PV power generation in tropical climate zone (Figure reproduced from [89,90]). ...
Solar photovoltaic (PV) deployments are growing rapidly to provide a sustainable source of electricity, but their output is strongly impacted by environmental phenomena such as soiling and low irradiance conditions induced by haze from urban sources, dust, and bushfire smoke. This review examines the effects of haze on PV performance, highlights significant results, and identifies apparent research gaps in the current literature. In addition to the severe health issues caused by industrial exhausted aerosol, dust storms particles, and bushfire smoke, reduction in irradiance (in some cases up to 80%) is the most dominant impact of these sources of haze. Haze also causes changes in the received solar spectrum, and higher bandgap PV materials are more affected by the presence of haze and aerosols in the atmosphere by 20-40% than low bandgap semiconductors. In many cities throughout the world, pollution-related haze causes substantial annual revenue loss to PV operators. In addition, haze imposes severe effects on direct irradiance; therefore, tracking systems and concentrated PV systems are most affected. These technical impacts of haze all indicate the need for careful customization of PV systems for specific locations. In addition, to increase global PV output, it is clear that air pollution control regulations such as China’s national policies against air pollution and eco-friendly international actions such as COP26 should be employed and executed. Further studies are needed including indoor experiments, forecasting future implications of aerosols on PV energy conversion, and performing energy policy analysis to identify associated challenges and propose practical strategies.
... To promote PV industry development, SERIS has developed a live solar irradiance map with a 1-s resolution for Singapore based on real-time data collected from 25 irradiance stations across Singapore on a 5 km × 5 km grid, as shown in Figure 2 [21]. The total annual solar radiation value for Singapore is 1580 kWh/m 2 /year, which already covers the average solar radiation value for the region [30]. In addition to global horizontal irradiance and diffuse horizontal irradiance, other parameters that may impact PV production are also measured, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and air pressure. ...
Energy consumption enhancement has resulted in a rise in carbon dioxide emissions, followed by a notable greenhouse effect contributing to global warming. Globally, buildings consume one-third of the total energy due to the continued expansion of building areas caused by population growth. Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) represent an effective technology to attain zero energy buildings (ZEBs) via solar energy use. This research begins with the tropical green building concept in Singapore associated with renewable energy and gives an overview of the potential of solar photovoltaic energy. Strategies for BIPV spread in Singapore are also provided. Considering both BIPV system life cycle assessment (LCA) and BIPV industry standards and recent developments, this research determines whether Singapore should adopt this technology. Although the BIPV product market has expanded regarding BIPV products, systems and projects, there remain certain barriers to BIPV adoption in Singapore. Additionally, future research directions for tropical BIPV applications are outlined. The Singapore BIPV system serves as an example for a number of other tropical countries facing comparable challenges.
... Additionally, VRE day ahead, or intra-day forecasts (Perez et al., 2014), (Nobre, 2015), (Heinemann et al., 2006), which activate dispatchable generators and consumers, e.g., hydropower plants, and the DR controlled systems, also result in a lower demand for storage capacities. ...
The present nearly exponential growth of the cumulative installation power of wind and photovoltaic power plants is very promising in the context of a rapid reduction of the emission of CO2, which can lead to a swift mitigation climate change if this growth behavior is maintained in the future. In this review we identify a set of ten limiting factors that can restrain, or halt back, an exponential growth of these variable renewable power plants (VREs) in the future. If the exponential growth slows down to a linear growth, such a case would extent considerably the time to reduce the CO2 emissions and the related mitigation of climate change. A scenario that would result to a much higher risk of a future continuation of the economic grow and thrive of the global economy and human society. We argue that if these limiting factors are adequately addressed to an exponential expansion VRE power plants is feasible and can result in the nearly complete avoidance of CO2 emissions as related to energy generation and consumption in 2030.
... Measured meteorological data is preferred over the synthetic data for this purpose. In the case of unavailability of measured data, synthetic data from different meteorological repositories like meteonorm, NASA, etc. [212,213]. � Step 3. Study on the microgrid requirements: After assessing load and meteorological data of the prospective microgrid location, the next step is to assess (i) economical aspects such as budget of the microgrid owner, microgrid cost (installation, operation and maintenance), cost of energy, expected generated revenue, etc., (ii) technical aspects such as rating of the PV modules, tilt angle, efficiency of PV module and associated power electronic devices, specifications of battery energy storage system and backup generator, etc., (iii) reliability factor of the microgrid (such as LPSP, LLP, EENS), which greatly depends on the type of microgrid as detailed in Sections 3 and (iv) environmental aspects such as GHG emission. � Step 4. Formulation of optimal sizing problem: ...
In the design procedure of a PV-based microgrid, optimal sizing of its components plays a significant role, as it ensures optimum utilization of the available solar energy and associated storage devices. This in turn ensures efficient and economic operation of the microgrid. Various approaches have been reported in the literature in order to approach the sizing problem in PV-based microgrids. However, the existing approaches are subjective to the requirements of the microgrid and there is no unique framework for approaching the microgrid sizing problem. In this study, a comprehensive review of the existing approaches used for sizing of PV-based microgrids with a summary of the commonly adopted design considerations has been presented. Also, the optimization problem, including the usually considered designed objectives and constraints, for PV-based microgrid sizing have been thoroughly reviewed in this study. Furthermore, the adopted approaches for solving the optimization problem associated with the sizing of a PV-based microgrid system available in the literature have been reviewed comprehensively. With a view to present a generic framework for the optimal sizing of a PV-based microgrid, this study further presents a framework based on the comprehensive review of the existing literature. The developed framework will be useful for both the practicing engineers and academics to understand and apply the usual practices for optimal sizing of PV-based microgrids.
... Essa situação é recorrente, principalmente, em climas tropicais, que apesar de terem alto índices de radiação solar, possuem também, altos índices de nebulosidade. Essa instabilidade, recebida pelos módulos fotovoltaicos instalados nas usinas solares, pode ocasionar flutuações na tensão gerada e também na frequência, tornando-se um dos obstáculos para o crescimento da tecnologia (Nobre, 2015). ...
... Além disso, há também alguns métodos consolidados sendo que os principais pontos que os diferem é o tempo que se conseguem realizar a previsão e sua resolução. De acordo com (Nobre, 2015), dentro do método estocástico há uma enorme variação de tempo, dependendo da junção das técnicas selecionadas. (Kaur, Nonnenmacher, Pedro, & Coimbra, 2016). ...
Com o importante crescimento das fontes renováveis de energia no mundo e no Brasil, torna-se cada vez mais eminente obter uma boa precisão na previsão dessas fontes de energia, principalmente para as energias solar e eólica. Este avanço aumentaria o uso das fontes renováveis de energia, por exemplo em um despacho pelo operador de sistema elétrico. O trabalho proposto apresenta os fatores e parâmetros para a definição de um método de previsão adequado a ser utilizado bem como uma revisão bibliográfica (estado da arte) com os principais métodos utilizados para a previsão da radiação solar e da geração para sistemas fotovoltaicos.
... It is a sophisticated means of producing electricity in the site, directly from solar radiation and does not cause significant environmental damage (IEA, 1995). However, the vast majority of those systems (above 90%) are located outside the tropics of the planet, where the solar resource is not so abundant (Nobre, 2015). BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaics) and BAPV (Building Attached Photovoltaics) systems appropriates their envelopes, converting them into power plants. ...
... Solar farms clearly enjoy the fact that asset values are high and the presence of dedicated O&M teams on site allows for daily cleaning routines of irradiance sensors, a condition that the distributed PV approach does not enjoy. In a country like Singapore, as an example, it could be that by the end of 2030, a fleet of ~2-3 GWp of photovoltaics is present in an area of ~710 km 2 , or 3-4 MWp per km 2 [13]. Evaluating thousands of PV systems in a certain geography can become a complex and costly venture. ...
... One of the challenges related to this incorporation and operation of solar PV is dealing with the variable aspect of this source of energy, which can alternate during the day due to weather conditions, such as cloud motion, and also has no production during night time. These characteristics highlight the importance of applying a forecasting method to a PV system [2]. It is useful to distinguish forecasting techniques according to the temporal scales we are interested in. ...
This paper proposes a new multi-agent system to solve very short-term solar forecasting problems. The system organizes the training data into clusters using Part and Select Algorithm. These clusters are used to generate different forecasting models, where each one is performed by a different agent. Finally, another agent is responsible for deciding which model will be applied at each forecasting situation. Results present improvements in forecasting accuracy and training performance if compared to other forecasting methods. A discussion of how to use this architecture for the implementation of a more comprehensive model is also addressed.
... Another consequence of clouds is a much larger share of diffuse light. In Singapore, the average diffuse share of the global irradiance is found to be more than 50% [99]. Sun. ...
... It is, thus, important to quantify the amount of variation that can be expected. In terms of annual total, it was found that the ground horizontal insolation in Singapore shows less than 10% variation from the average [99]. For Denver, the variation in tilted global irradiance (40°, facing south) is less than 5% from the average, ...
... High-quality ground based measurements can produce irradiance and spectrum data with high degree of accuracy, and with high temporal resolution, often to the level of one data point per minute [85,90]. Satellite derived data usually are less accurate, and have lower temporal resolution [99,138]. In particular, spectrum data are hard to measure directly by means of remote sensing, and ground measurements are only available for very few locations globally. ...
... The final short-term forecasting to be tested is a hybrid ARIMA- [55] demonstrated that improvements were obtained for a selection of case study days in 2013 and 2014 in Singapore, where an early detection of rain storms allowed forecast improvements in the rapid changing weather conditions of the tropics. Absolute normalized root mean square error reductions for the case studies were in the order of 10%. ...
