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Adapted from the author's report prepared under the U.S. Agency for International Development contract 690-C-00-00-00283-00 with Nathan Associates Inc., Arlington, Virginia U.S.A (www.nathaninc.com). Vernon Roningen is an economic consultant and the developer of VORSIM, software for economic modeling in Microsoft Excel, headquartered in Arlington,...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... the agreement results in increased import prices, their costs increase. Associated with a change in consumer costs is an absolute economic efficiency gain or loss that can be measured -consumer surplus (see Figure 3). 8. Forgone tariff revenue -FTA or CU member governments forgo tariff revenue because of zero duties on imports (trade diversion) from other members. ...
Context 2
... producer benefit or "surplus" is they key measurement of the impact of a trade policy change on producers. Figure 3 shows the impact of an import price decrease (from "base" to "solution" price). This has led to an increase in import demand (trade creation -"solution" exceeds "base" quantity) at a lower price. ...
Citations
... It was therefore, not clear how exports had impacted on economic growth in the COMESA member countries. Most previous studies done on COMESA (Kaluwa and Kambewa, 2009;Mayda and Steinberg, 2007;Musila, 2004;Nikki, Elago and Kirk, 2008;Roningen and DeRosa, 2003) have mainly focused on individual member countries and not the COMESA region as a whole. ...
This study utilizes a nonparametric estimation, locally weighted scatter plot smoothing (LOWESS), to find out the drivers of business and holiday tourism in Ghana. The results reveal that word-of-mouth effects have been largely positive except for the case of holiday tourism where the effects became negative in the latter years. The effects of the size of the Ghanaian economy, exchange rate, substitute price and trade openness on business tourists’ arrivals have largely been positive. Nigeria is a substitute destination to Ghana. Deepening of civil liberties and political rights send good signals to would-be tourists and vice versa. Improvement in public infrastructure networks attracts both business and holiday tourists into the country. To attract more business and holiday tourists to Ghana authorities could pay attention to factors such as improvement in public infrastructure networks, growth of Ghana’s economy and international trading activities, civil liberties and political rights prevailing in the country.
... It was therefore, not clear how exports had impacted on economic growth in the COMESA member countries. Most previous studies done on COMESA (Kaluwa and Kambewa, 2009;Mayda and Steinberg, 2007;Musila, 2004;Nikki, Elago and Kirk, 2008;Roningen and DeRosa, 2003) have mainly focused on individual member countries and not the COMESA region as a whole. ...
Establishing the nexus between exports and economic growth is important in choosing a growth strategy.
Hence, this study sought to establish the causality between exports and economic growth of COMESA member countries. It used panel unit root tests, panel cointergration and Granger causality techniques. The dataset was from 1980 to 2010. The findings of the study showed that both export-led growth and growth-led export hypotheses were valid in the COMESA region. Export-led growth hypothesis applied in 68.4% of the COMESA member countries; growth-led export hypothesis applied in 42.1% of the COMESA member countries; while in 36.8% of the COMESA member countries, there appeared bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth. The finding that, in most COMESA member countries, the direction of causation was from exports to GDP growth implies that an export-oriented trade strategy would have positive long-run effects on GDP in the COMESA.
In the era of globalization, internationalized representations of infectious disease threats have profound implications for understandings of infectious disease problems and their management in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. By examining the policy implications of the key narratives around public health, animal health and trade, it becomes possible to clarify the relationship between global understandings of infectious disease risk and their impact on the development of local responses to disease problems. We highlight the tensions that resource-constrained countries face in the nexus of animal health-public health and trade, including the perception that resource-constrained countries are both source and victims of potential infectious disease threats. Given this scenario, it is important to think about how developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, can approach infectious disease risk management as it relates to pandemic scale threats such as avian and pandemic influenza. We outline some of the key considerations in defining and assessing disease risk using avian and pandemic influenza in Zambia as an example. We conclude that the key to the feasibility of the analysis of the risk of multi-sectoral affecting emerging infectious diseases such as zoonotic avian influenza is flexibility in how risk is framed across the public health, animal health and trade systems.
The member countries of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) have agreed to launch a customs union by December 2008. We provide a quantitative assessment of the likely impacts of the formation of a COMESA customs union, specifically of having free trade among COMESA countries while imposing a common external tariff (CET) against third countries. Along with the MIRAGE CGE model, we use an expanded version of the GTAP Data Base that provides more regional disaggregation in Africa. Alternative COMESA customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed HS6 level, combining information on current applied protection from the 2004 MAcMap data base and the COMESA Tariff Nomenclature. Adoption of the COMESA CET will result in significant liberalization for most COMESA countries but some countries will have to increase protection. We find that the customs union will result in expansion of trade and will be beneficial for some but will result in negative real income for most COMESA countries. The results are diverse due to the heterogeneity of the COMESA economies in terms of their economic structure and trade and protection patterns.
