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This study conducted in Southern Zambia assessed climatic variability in the region for the purpose of determining occurrence of climate change over the past 100 years. It utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1910 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009, respectively. Variability was assessed by the use of 11-year moving avera...
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... The report also said floods have not only destroyed houses and crops, but emergencies have also resulted in the spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, and dysentery. Mubanga and Umar (2014), observed that Zambia has been experiencing an increase in temperatures and rainfall over the last four decades. The impacts have manifested themselves in increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods (Mubanga, 2014). ...
Zambia like many other countries has not been spared from the destructive impacts of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during formal school years and later on in teacher training programs is crucial to that end. This paper investigates the quality of climate change education that students receive in secondary schools as well as the adequacy of the content taught from the teachers' and pupils' perspectives. It further investigated teachers' and pupils' opinions on the effects of embracing compulsory climate change education in secondary schools and teacher training colleges and universities. It is based on responses from secondary school students and teachers in Lusaka District. A descriptive survey design utilizing a structured questionnaire was administered to 152 randomly selected respondents drawn from 8 secondary schools within Lusaka. Data analysis involved chi-square tests and thematic analysis of respondents' qualitative responses. Results also show that the level of climate change knowledge among secondary school teachers in Lusaka was not significantly low (χ2 = 9.488, n = 152, df = 4). Factors such as tertiary level qualification and teaching subject combination emerged as some of the major reasons for varying degrees of climate change knowledge among teachers and pupils respectively. It was recommended that the Ministry of Education should undertake climate change capacity building among teachers through the introduction of compulsory climate change training programs for all teachers at the college or university level, as well as comprehensive and compulsory climate change subject training at secondary school. Curriculum formulation agencies such Curriculum Development Centre and the Ministry of Education should work with teachers and university lecturers to come up with a detailed but easy-to-understand climate change curriculum content.
... A significant difference was observed in the spatial and temporal patterns of malaria over the study period. Similarly, several agriculture based studies [64][65][66][67][68] are consistent with the observed shifts in temperature and rainfall, showing declining rain but increasing temperature trends in southern most areas but the opposite for northern and north-eastern parts of Zambia. Figure 1 shows the posterior probabilities of disease trends assigned to each district, categorised as either having an increasing trend, a constant trend or a decreasing trend. ...
The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.
... Annual average rainfall exhibited a non-significant increasing trend (p = 0.218) over the study period in the catchment. Previous studies in Zambia have found trends in rainfall amounts to be inconclusive with some stations showing non-significant decreasing trends (Mubanga and Umar, 2014;Chisola and Kuraz, 2016). Additionally, our findings reveal significant increasing trends (P < 0.05) in one-day maximum rainfall, coefficient of variation of daily rainfall, maximum dry spell length (dry period length), temperature, and reference evapotranspiration ( Table 4). ...
... Seasonal rainfall characteristics were more important in explaining hydrological patterns than rainfall totals as the former influence landscape hydrological processes of surface runoff generation, infiltration, soil moisture and ET dynamics. Given that most studies in southern African and African region general indicate non-significant increasing or decreasing trends in annual rainfall totals (Kusangaya et al., 2014;Mubanga and Umar, 2014;Taye et al., 2015), this study argues that it is in fact the changing seasonal rainfall distribution that must be of concern for water resources management in the region. An improved understanding of trends in seasonal rainfall characteristics such as its intensity, variability and dry spell lengths could be even more important than annual rainfall trends for building resilience in semi-arid areas. ...
Study region
Kaleya River Catchment in southern Zambia.
Study focus
The ability of a landscape hydrology approach to detect controls on water availability in a fragmented landscape to inform interventions under a changing environment was investigated. Simple and measurable climatic and landscape pattern attributes were analysed using change detection, trend analysis and backward variable elimination with Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) to identify controls on seasonal river flows and how landscape components could be enhanced to augment natural river flows.
New hydrological insights for the region
Landscape pattern showed increasing fragmentation, expansion of irrigated cropland and reservoirs and loss of forestland. Significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) were observed for reference evapotranspiration (ETo), one-day maximum rainfall, coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall, maximum dry spell length, and start of rains but not annual rainfall. Increased CV of rainfall, rainfall intensity and ETo were the main climatic stressors on river flows. Increased Percentage of Landscape (PLAND) of irrigated cropland, PLAND of reservoirs, Patch Density (PD) and Largest Patch Index (LPI) of reservoirs were the main landscape pattern stressors. Only the LPI of forestland positively explained seasonal river flows. Water resource interventions in the region must adapt more to changing seasonal rainfall characteristics than to annual rainfall totals. Additionally, regeneration of larger forest patches could improve river flows. The approach can be applied in other regions.
... The 4 th IPCC report acknowledges indigenous knowledge as invaluable for developing sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (IPCC 2014b). Combining both indigenous and scientific knowledge on climate change and science-based forecasts helps to produce robust climate forecasting systems that help in the design of effective adaptation strategies (Mubanga and Umar 2014;Soropa et al. 2015). This section provides an overview of climate perceptions on climate change and the use of LIKSP in early warning systems for the communities in the Zambezi River Basin so as to complement the science-based climate analyses systems discussed in the previous sections. ...
... The 4 th IPCC report acknowledges indigenous knowledge as invaluable for developing sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (IPCC 2014b). Combining both indigenous and scientific knowledge on climate change and science-based forecasts helps to produce robust climate forecasting systems that help in the design of effective adaptation strategies (Mubanga and Umar 2014;Soropa et al. 2015). This section provides an overview of climate perceptions on climate change and the use of LIKSP in early warning systems for the communities in the Zambezi River Basin so as to complement the science-based climate analyses systems discussed in the previous sections. ...
... The 4 th IPCC report acknowledges indigenous knowledge as invaluable for developing sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (IPCC 2014b). Combining both indigenous and scientific knowledge on climate change and science-based forecasts helps to produce robust climate forecasting systems that help in the design of effective adaptation strategies (Mubanga and Umar 2014;Soropa et al. 2015). This section provides an overview of climate perceptions on climate change and the use of LIKSP in early warning systems for the communities in the Zambezi River Basin so as to complement the science-based climate analyses systems discussed in the previous sections. ...
This chapter analyses historical and projected future trends in temperature and precipitation across the Zambezi River Basin. The chapter also reviews the roles of Local Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Practices (LIKSP) in order to integrate these with interventions and adaptation planning for climate change. To address how climate varies across the Zambezi River Basin, the study uses five major river catchments as case studies and assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the natural and agricultural ecosystems on whose resources human livelihoods depend. The five river catchments include the Barotse Flood plain in Zambia, Manyame in Zimbabwe, the Shire in Malawi, Ruhuhu and Songwe in Tanzania, and represent 38 percent of the Zambezi River Basin’s 13 catchments. The catchments were selected based on their spatial distribution in the basin and the availability of historical and modelled climate data.
... The non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall and the significant increasing trend in temperature are consistent jgg.ccsenet.org Journal of Geography and Geology Vol. 8, No. 3; 2016 with results obtained by other scholars (Mubanga & Umar, 2014) from other metrological stations in Zambia. These trends in climatic data are already having negative implications on water availability across the country especially in the dry season. ...
p> Conflicts regarding water use have emerged in some small irrigation dominated peri-urban catchments in Zambia; Chongwe being one such catchment. Despite these conflicts suggesting a change in hydrologic regime, the nature of the changes and their drivers has not been adequately investigated. The Mann Kendall trend test and Flow Duration Curves were used to investigate changes in hydro-climatic time series data in Chongwe upper catchment for the period 1955-2006. Although the results reviewed a significant upward trend in temperature at 0.05 significance level, there is no significant trend in rainfall. Annual and seasonal runoff at the upstream located Ngwerere weir reviewed significant upward trends at 0.05 significance level. This increased runoff which is attributed to sewer water discharge and increased imperviousness is abstracted for agricultural activities upstream. In this regard, results reviewed no significant trend in runoff at the outlet gauging station (Chongwe 5025). However, analysis of the Flow Duration Curves at this outlet gauging station indicated an increase in wet season flows and a reduction in dry season flows for the 1990-2006 period. These results suggest that human activities in the upstream parts of the catchments could be the major contributing factors to the changes in flow regime, hence the ensuing upstream vs downstream water use conflicts. However, there is still excess runoff in the wet season that could be harvested by downstream water users in order to offset the deficit in downstream dry season flows. </p
... Rainfall variability has manifested itself in more intense and widespread droughts (Boko et al., 2007;Fauchereau et al., 2003;Yanda & Mubaya, 2011). In the case of Southern Zambia where Chipepo, the study area, is, frequent and intense droughts have been recorded, although some parts have also experienced floods (Mubanga & Umar, 2014). Generally, the climate of Zambia has been characterized by epic dry and wet periods. ...
The study conducted in Southern Zambia investigated smallholder farmers' use of indigenous knowledge to respond to rainfall variations and soil fertility problems. Farmer and key informant interviews and observations were employed to collect data. A total of 60 smallholder farmers and 6 key informants were interviewed. Chipepo lies in the low rainfall region of Zambia. Its upland area faces moisture stress and soil fertility problems compared to its valley areas located along tributaries of the Zambezi River. The annual flooding of the tributaries of the Zambezi River along the valley fields results in loss of crop yields. Farmers have responded to problems of low moisture in the upland fields and too much moisture in the river valley fields through crop diversification concentrated on three main food crops namely; maize, sorghum and bulrush millet. These differ not only in their moisture requirements but also in maturity periods. Drought tolerant early maturing crop varieties and off-farm activities enhance their resilience. Maize was planted in river valley fields due to its high water requirements while drought tolerant sorghum and millet were planted on upland fields. The farmers' knowledge of particular flowering plants helped forecast the onset of rains for purposes of early planting. Farmers with upland fields have adopted indigenous soil classification techniques based on vegetation types, soil colour, and texture and soil workability and utilize particular soils for specific crops. Integrating this indigenous knowledge into modern technologies will enhance smallholder farmers' resilience when faced with impacts of climate change and variability.
... Rainfall variability has manifested itself in more intense and widespread droughts (Boko et al., 2007;Fauchereau et al., 2003;Yanda & Mubaya, 2011). In the case of Southern Zambia where Chipepo, the study area, is, frequent and intense droughts have been recorded, although some parts have also experienced floods (Mubanga & Umar, 2014). Generally, the climate of Zambia has been characterized by epic dry and wet periods. ...
The study conducted in Southern Zambia investigated smallholder farmers' use of indigenous knowledge to respond to rainfall variations and soil fertility problems. Farmer and key informant interviews and observations were employed to collect data. A total of 60 smallholder farmers and 6 key informants were interviewed. Chipepo lies in the low rainfall region of Zambia. Its upland area faces moisture stress and soil fertility problems compared to its valley areas located along tributaries of the Zambezi River. The annual flooding of the tributaries of the Zambezi River along the valley fields results in loss of crop yields. Farmers have responded to problems of low moisture in the upland fields and too much moisture in the river valley fields through crop diversification concentrated on three main food crops namely; maize, sorghum and bulrush millet. These differ not only in their moisture requirements but also in maturity periods. Drought tolerant early maturing crop varieties and off-farm activities enhance their resilience. Maize was planted in river valley fields due to its high water requirements while drought tolerant sorghum and millet were planted on upland fields. The farmers' knowledge of particular flowering plants helped forecast the onset of rains for purposes of early planting. Farmers with upland fields have adopted indigenous soil classification techniques based on vegetation types, soil colour, and texture and soil workability and utilize particular soils for specific crops. Integrating this indigenous knowledge into modern technologies will enhance smallholder farmers' resilience when faced with impacts of climate change and variability.
There is insufficient paucity of information on trends in long-term monthly and decadal rainfall in Zambia. This study assessed the monthly and decadal trends in rainfall over the agro-ecological regions (AERs) and Zambia from 1981 to 2022. The Mann-Kendall test statistic was used at 5 % significant level to compute trends in rainfall at monthly and decadal time step on CHIRPS v2 at 0.05° resolution. R/RStudio Sen's slope estimator was used to give the magnitude of the observed trends. The monthly rainfall time series trend over Zambia ranges from −0.04 to 0.03. The decadal trend analysis of rainfall at annual and monthly time step exhibits a decreasing/increasing trend with Sen's slope between −49.27 and 71.26 mm. Decadal trend at annual time step in AERIII, AERIIa, AERIIa and AERI exhibits a Sen's slope of −44.11 to 62.48 mm, −15.29 to 41.58 mm, −6.08 and 71.26 mm, and 2.20–64.86 mm, respectively. The decadal trend at monthly time step in AERIII, AERIIa, AERIIa and AERI exhibits a Sen's slope of −132.08 to −3.15 mm, −123.39 to −8.57 mm, −73.08 to −15.17 mm, and −80.02 to −5.21 mm, respectively. Decrease in rainfall is expected to affect agriculture, energy, water resources, sanitation and socio-economic aspects. Rainfall pattern shows spatio-temporal variability over Zambia. The results provide valuable input into the National Adaptation Plan and also useful for strategic planning purposes in water resources management under a changing climate. It is evident that spatio-temporal time steps utilized in this study provides new insights of rainfall trends at seasonal, monthly, and annual and decadal time steps.
