Figure 3 - uploaded by Michel G.J. den Elzen
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2030 emissions projections (incl. LULUCF) compared to 2005 levels. Negative values represent emissions below 2005. The 'excluding COVID-19' scenario shows the result of quantification based on recently implemented policies alone. The 'including COVID-19' scenario shows the combined effect of these policies and the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart based on average for clarity. Scenario projections 'excluding COVID-19' are not presented for Iran (uncertainty on future economic growth related to economic sanctions). Egypt does not have a quantifiable NDC.
Source publication
This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report shows that emissions are pro...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... this report we explore the effect of the pandemic on the timeframe towards 2030 ( Figure 3). We evaluate scenarios excluding and including COVID-19 to assess whether it has implications for the countries analysed in terms of their ability to meet NDC targets. ...
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The availability of open, high-quality, consistent, and comprehensive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data is essential to understanding the global trend in GHG emissions, and for countries to see their emission profiles, compare their impacts with those of other countries, identify mitigation opportunities, and reduce emissions.
Citations
Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. We find that the assessed uncertainties markedly affect global GHG emission projections. Full achievement of NDC targets is estimated to result in a range of 46-60 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 (median estimate: 53 GtCO 2 eq). The uncertainty in measuring historical emissions, including land-use, as reflected by different datasets is the most important contributing factor. This is followed by two equally important factors globally: socio-economic baseline uncertainty and uncertainty about the emissions implied by current policies in case NDCs are less ambitious than these. Overall, the impact of policy uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty resulting from conditionality of or ranges in NDC targets and uncertainty in emissions resulting from current policies) is about equally important as model/technical uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty in historical emissions and socio-economic baseline variations). This new insight is important for decision makers and researchers because a larger share of the total uncertainty is now attributable to aspects that can be influenced by policy decisions compared to previous analyses of NDC uncertainty.
