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![(1) Evolution of world energy consumption over the last 30 years [22, 23] and some recent energy forecasts with the indii cation of the publication year: (2) Institute of Atomic Energy (IAE), 1984 [1, 16]; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 1981 [24]; (4) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 1984 [26]; (5) Institute for Energy Anall ysis at Oak Ridge, 1985 [17]; (6) World Energy Conference (WEC), 1984 [25]; and (7) Moscow Power Engineering Instii tute, 1990 [19].](profile/Alexei-Tereshin/publication/275219942/figure/fig5/AS:668367677575179@1536362680663/1-Evolution-of-world-energy-consumption-over-the-last-30-years-22-23-and-some-recent.png)
(1) Evolution of world energy consumption over the last 30 years [22, 23] and some recent energy forecasts with the indii cation of the publication year: (2) Institute of Atomic Energy (IAE), 1984 [1, 16]; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 1981 [24]; (4) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 1984 [26]; (5) Institute for Energy Anall ysis at Oak Ridge, 1985 [17]; (6) World Energy Conference (WEC), 1984 [25]; and (7) Moscow Power Engineering Instii tute, 1990 [19].
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![Fig. 2. Energy consumption e per capita in developed countries [22, 23].](profile/Alexei-Tereshin/publication/275219942/figure/fig1/AS:391844899901456@1470434512769/Energy-consumption-e-per-capita-in-developed-countries-22-23_Q320.jpg)
Abstract—It has been established that the historical approach to world energy forecasting can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes reaching a plateau of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almo...
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Context 1
... ENERGY STATISTICS DATA Figure 1 shows a comparison of the genetic forecast elaborated in 1990 [19][20][21] for the world energy devell opment with data on energy consumption for the last 25 years [22,23]. One can see that during the whole period, the deviation of historical data from forecast was within 3-4% and reached a maximum of 6% in 2012. ...
Context 2
... decrease of energy conn sumption annual growth rates at the turn of the mill lennium-down to 1.9% for 1990-2014 as compared to 3.7% for the years 1950-1990. This fact was a total surprise for most analysts, who expected in their day a more than double increase in energy consumption during the last quarter of the century. This is demonn strated in Fig. 1, showing several forecasts carried out in the 1980s by some outstanding research institutions ...
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It has been established that the historical approach to forecasting world energy can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes the stabilization of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500...
Citations
... The major component of greenhouse gases is chiefly CO 2 which is acclaimed to be one gas that is causing the ever-increasing menaces to the human race and its entire environment. The present global annual carbon emission is estimated to be more than 30 billion tons (Tang et al. 2014;Abas et al. 2015;Klimenko et al. 2015;Akhtar and Sarmah 2018;Cao et al. 2020; Fig. 1). Owing to this, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has been proposed and recommended as a technologically proven mitigation option to reduce concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere (Pacala and Socolow 2004;IPCC 2005;Praetorius and Schumacher 2009;Wennersten et al. 2015; Editorial responsibility: Jing Chen. ...
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major component of greenhouse gases and a driver of climate change and associated challenges like global warming, drought, flooding, etc. There is, therefore, an urgent need, to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and sequester it to deplete its concentration and consequently, mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. Geological formations have huge potential for underground CO2 storage and therefore, present viable options for storing CO2 and reduction of greenhouse gases in general and CO2 in particular. This review outlines the various techniques, strengths and pitfalls associated with the various techniques applied to the three major geological formations used for carbon sequestration. The advantages of the various techniques are enormous and generally vary from one geological formation to the other. The applicability of these techniques, which is based on data from various sources including laboratory studies, numerical modelling, pilot field testing and commercial carbon capture projects have been documented in key literature for various regions of the world. Despite the immense advantages of carbon capture and utilization, Sub-Saharan Africa is still lagging and is yet to fully delve into this trajectory of research owing to a lack of interest, dearth of research funding and expertise. This review will highlight the various perspectives of carbon capture and storage that may help solve some of the problems burgeoning the energy industry as well as mitigate climate change problems, thus triggering the required thrust for research in the area.
... The historical extrapolation scenario used in the present study was originally described more than 30 years ago [28,29] and has shown impressive consistency (typical accuracy of 2%-3%) with historical world energy data from 1990 to 2020 [30]. Based on this evidence, it is assumed that this scenario captures a robust secular trend and can potentially be used for multi-decade world energy demand forecasting. ...
To limit global warming well below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, a rapid transition toward renewable energies must occur within the next several decades. This study examines the problem of resource constraints in the development of clean energy and transportation technologies (namely wind turbines and batteries in electric vehicles) for different global energy-consumption scenarios. For this study, lithium and cobalt (demand from electric vehicles) and neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium (cumulative demand from electric vehicles and wind power) were considered as critical materials. The application of simple dynamic models allows for an integrated assessment, taking into account changes in energy demand, resource intensity of wind energy and electric vehicles, and exploration and recycling technologies. The obtained results show that, irrespective of the considered scenario or the method used for estimating rare-earth element reserves, the demand for neodymium and praseodymium remains within a maximum of 12%–14% of the total reserves even when the development in recycling technologies is not considered. Meanwhile, the demand for dysprosium is much more significant at 86% in the absence of recycling technologies. There are strong indicators that clean-energy development can be threatened by the shortage of cobalt and lithium by the middle of this century unless we achieve rapid progress in technologies related to their exploration and reuse.
... Climate change simulations are often performed for the latter, most dangerous climate change scenario (RCP8.5) in order to get an estimate for the worst-case scenario. At the same time, the real changes observed in the climate system for almost two decades now have been closer not even to the moderate but to the optimistic option ( Fig. 1) [24]. ...
... To conduct predictive assessments, in addition to the standard and generally recognized climatic scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, our own scenario developed approximately 30 years ago by the Research Laboratory of Global Energy Problems of Moscow Power Engineering Institute (GEPL), which has shown better agreement with actual changes in the climate system in recent decades [24]. The calculation with this scenario, which occupies an intermediate position between the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios (see Fig. 1), was performed using the calculation results for these standard scenarios, with allowance for a linear dependence of the climate effect on global temperature-the main climate parameter causing directional changes in the climate system. ...
... Comparison of the calculation results according to the RCP group and the GEPL scenarios,[22] and[24], respectively, with the data of HadCRU global temperature observations archive[23].The scenario assessments of the GEPL were built in the early 2000s and their comparison with HadCRU observational data in the period of 2005-2018 make it possible to determine the feasibility of the results. The temperature is presented as an anomaly from the level of 1850-1900. ...
... In this paper, we used a compromise value of 28%, consistent to what we used in our box-diffusion carbon cycle model with advanced biosphere unit [ 12], which was applied here for calculations of global changes of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. We used as an input the scenarios of anthropogenic influence on the atmosphere [13][14] developed in National Research University "MPEI", taking into account the commitments of the UNFCCC parties on the basis of the Paris Agreement (2015). The results of the global mean atmospheric CO 2 concentration calculations for baseline scenario are presented in Fig. 3. ...
... Changes in air temperature over the Russian territory are calculated using a regional climate model [ 15] combining the principles of dynamic and statistical modeling. Model estimates of mean annual air temperature (T ann ) change by the middle of this century on the territory of Russia corresponding to baseline scenario of anthropogenic influence on the atmosphere [13][14] are presented in Fig. 4. ...
Biofuels are an important energy source, currently providing about 10% of the world energy demand, including 2% of global electricity generation and the same share of total liquid fuel consumption. Wood fuel in Russia is one of the most affordable and most important type of renewable energy resources. In this paper we study the possible changes in energy potential of Russia's forest resources as a result of changes in the atmosphere and climate. The estimates of the global dioxide concentrations dynamics and mean annual air temperature change over the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 are developed using the MPEI models of the carbon cycle and regional climate. The calculations show that the change of net primary productivity of forests of Russia as a result of the CO 2 abundance increase in the atmosphere, as well as of the increase of the air temperature and rainfall will enhance available energy resources of wood fuel by mid-century by more than 9 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce).
... The Rot, NAOI and AMO trends were developed by means of Singular Spectrum Analysis technique [10] . Anthropogenic radiative forcing is calculated according to IPCC guidelines [1] based on scenarios of greenhouse gases and sulphur oxides emissions presented elsewhere [11] . Table 1 -Main climatic factors and indices vs variables reflecting their impact climatic factors variables atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols total radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosol [1] volcanic activity (the concentrations of stratospheric aerosols) radiative forcing calculated from atmospheric optical depth (F AOD ) [7] solar activity maximum for each cycle Wolf numbers W max [12] Earth's rotation velocity annual mean deviations of angular velocity of Earth rotation (Rot) [13] changes of atmospheric circulation indices of winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOI) [14] and annual Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilation (AMO) [15] Mechanisms of external factors influence on climate are recorded using developed in MPEI globally averaged EBM based on [6] , which allows to calculate temperature responses Anthr, Solar and Volc to perturbations of radiation balance (total anthropogenic as well as solar and volcanic forcings). ...
A combined approach to the climate modeling is presented, making use of globally averaged energy balance climate model (EBM) and multiple regression analysis of relations between averaged regional air temperatures and EBM transient temperature responses to perturbations of the thermal radiation balance of the global climate system both by anthropogenic (change in greenhouse gases and aerosols atmospheric concentrations) and natural factors (solar and volcanic activity), as well as indices of atmospheric circulation and the Earth’s rotation velocity. It has been demonstrated that the scheme presented is a simple and effective tool for analysis and prediction of air temperature variations on a regional scale.
Keywords: global energy balance model, anthropogenic and natural climate factors, temperature responses, multiple linear regression, regional air temperature projections, applications in energy
... The carbon dioxide concentration was calculated by a modified box-diffusion carbon cycle model [49] with implementation of an original forecast for the world energy development and carbon emission [51]. A global temperature response to the change of CO 2 concentration along with other principal climatic driving factors was estimated using a non-stationary energy balance model based on the classical approach of [50]. ...
Assessment of the climate-related impacts on energy systems usually implies regression approaches. That restricts generalization of the published results for the regions which are not covered with detailed research yet. The climate change impacts on the Russian power industry were for the first time quantified in a systematic way. A robust physically-based simulation approach was used to simulate a response of the steam and gas turbines performance to the climate warming. It was shown that an increase of the air temperature deteriorates performance of thermal and nuclear power plants across the whole Russia. The power drop of the steam turbines is about 0.2–0.3 and 0.4–0.6 percent per 1∘C for thermal and nuclear power plants respectively. That means additional consumption of 3–4 million tce yearly to 2030–2050. However, an integral effect of the climate change on the Russian energy systems remains clearly positive due to the annual fuel savings of about 100 million tce resulting from reduction of the space heating demand. Main negative impacts of the climate change on the Russian power system will be linked to the changes of the operational regimes. Particularly, design and control strategies of the combined-cycle plants should necessarily account for the future changes of the climate conditions.
... The structure of the global energy consumption over the period up to 2100 providing a predetermined pattern of changes in its carbon intensity is shown in Fig. 3. In order to assess the global energy demand, we used an updated version of the genetic forecast of the energy development, which had shown good agreement with the actual data for the last quarter of the century [6]. The amounts of oil and gas fuel consumption were calculated taking into account the largescale use of their unconventional resources (shale gas and oil and coal-bed methane) [7,8]. ...
... Figures 4 and 5 show the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations and of the global mean temperature in the case of consistent and sustained implementation of the Paris Agreement. In our calculations, we use the models for the global carbon cycle and climate elaborated at the Global Energy Problems Laboratory at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute [11], which have been successfully confirmed by the observations over the last 25 years [6]. It can be expected that CO 2 emissions, which have steadily increased during the two and a half centuries of industrial history due to fossil fuel burning and cement production, will reach their maximum of 10-11 GtC/yr as soon as in the 2030s (see Fig. 4), and then will begin to decline gradually at an increasing rate. ...
... As has been shown in [6], the approach to the global anthropogenic changes in the climate and atmosphere developed by the authors yields sufficiently stable results. Despite the application of different scenarios of energy demand and supply and adjustments made to the simulation models, the uncertainty in the estimates of changes in the global average temperature has not exceeded 0.1°C over 25 years since it was first published. ...
Investigations have been carried out into the basic implications of the decisions taken in December 2015 at the Paris conference of the countries–participants of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for the world energy and for the atmosphere and climate. Based on the studied historical record of specific CO2 emissions in the energy production by different countries, it is shown that the implementation of the Paris Agreement will require an unprecedented effort to modernize the global energy sector; in particular, rapid elimination of coal from the global energy mix and a substantially increased share therein of carbon-free energy sources (hydro and nuclear power and alternative renewable energy sources (renewables)) to one third by the middle of this century. We have developed a scenario for the global energy demand mix corresponding to the guidelines of the Paris Agreement and its more conservative variant extending the trend of the last 15 years. It has been established that, under any of the development scenarios, the global mean temperature is to exceed the level of 1.5°C as soon as within a few decades. Using model simulations of the changes in the atmosphere and climate, we show that even the full implementation of the Paris Agreements will not prevent the increase in average global temperature by 2°C as compared to the preindustrial levels. The world community faces a difficult choice between the implementation of more stringent measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which we believe to be almost unreal, and adaptation to utterly new climatic conditions, which will last for centuries to come.
