3G MVNOs financial perspectives

Abstract

The Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) business case described hereafter, is based on 3G business cases, particularly regarding the technical infrastructure, but the 2,5G underlying infrastructure as an initial step is also taken into account. Following the definition of appropriate service sets, and taking into account demand scenarios established within the project, this work has been focused on developing a techno-economic model, based on TONIC tool. Tariff structures have been applied to compute the key economic indicators, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period. This investment analysis was carried using the tool, which was developed by IST-TONIC.

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3G MVNOs financial perspectives
D. Varoutas(1), D. Katsianis, Th. Sphicopoulos (University of Athens),
A. Cerboni (France Telecom R&D),
K.O. Kalhagen, K. Stordahl (Telenor R&D),
J. Harno, I.Welling (Nokia R&D)
(1)Department of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis,
Ilisia, GR 157-84,Athens, GREECE
E-mail: D.Varoutas@di.uoa.gr Tel: +3010-7275318, Fax: +3010-7275601
ABSTRACT
The Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) business
case described hereafter, is based on 3G business cases,
particularly regarding the technical infrastructure, but the
2,5G underlying infrastructure as an initial step is also
taken into account. Following the definition of
appropriate service sets, and taking into account demand
scenarios established within the project, this work has
been focused on developing a techno-economic model,
based on TONIC tool. Tariff structures have been
applied to compute the key economic indicators, Net
Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and
payback period. This investment analysis was carried
using the tool, which was developed by IST-TONIC [1].
I. INTRODUCTION
As a growing number of countries are assigning third
generation mobile licences, there is exponential growth
in the number of firms working in this sector which have
been left without license in the race towards mobile
telecommunications, widely regarded as a business
opportunity characterized by an extraordinary potential
for profit. On the other hand, license fees rose to such
heights in some countries that they now act as an
economic burden for the “winning” companies. This
situation favours solutions for those building their
business without a radio access network. Many firms,
which are working or not in the mobile sector
worldwide, have expressed their interest to enter this
market through the networks operation or the service
provision channel. For those, which have been left
without license, a new channel to enter the market and
take part to this big game is the MVNO channel.
EU IST-TONIC [1] project is a precursor in the
investigation of the economic side of such deployments
and consequently this work is the first step in the
assessment of the market conditions, the architectures
and the potential for a profitable business case of a
MVNO.
II. NETWORKS AND ARCHITECTURES
MVNOs are beginning to appear in the 2G mobile
communications market. They form partnerships with
infrastructure owners or rent network resources and
focus on developing their own service offerings,
essentially in content and portals.
Billing Customer
Care Call Center
Business Support
HLR voicemail WAP Gateway
Subscriber Register, VAS, Internet
MSC/VLR GMSC
SGSN GGSN Internet
PSTN
E
G
GMSC
GGSN Internet
PSTN
Billing Customer
Care Call Center
Business Support
HLR voicemail WAP Gateway
Subscriber Register, VAS, Internet
MNO
MVNO
Figure 1: Illustration of a 3G MVNO network (based on
Release 99 UMTS architecture)
A mobile virtual network operator provides cellular
services without owning spectrum access rights. From
the customers' point of view, a MVNO looks like any
other cellular operator, but a MVNO does not own or
operate base station infrastructure. Figure 1 illustrates
the MVNO idea.
There are different scenarios for a MVNO approach and
consequently different architectures for the MVNO such
as:
• A full MVNO, with its own SIM card, network
selection code and switching capabilities as well as
service center but without spectrum [2].
• IA-MVNO (Indirect Access MVNO) or Enhanced
service provider without SIM card, but with own
core network (circuit switched and/or packet) and
service facilities, e.g. own IN or IP application
servers. [3]
• Wireless ISP without own core network; basically
an Internet portal providing wireless IP services.

III. ASSUMPTIONS AND OUTPUTS OF THE BUSINESS
CASE
As initial time frame for this Full MVNO case, a ten-
year period has been selected for the early estimations
regarding the profitability for both 2G and 3G MVNO
cases. In order to calculate discounted cash flows a
discount rate of 10% has been selected. This value is a
mean value among the major European
Telecommunication Operators [4]. The modeling takes
into account two kinds of basic deployment areas: a
large European country such as Germany or France, and
a small European country exemplified by Scandinavian
countries. The models represent generic countries, e.g.
countries with similar demographic characteristics.
Specific demand scenarios have been built for this
business case and revenue streams generated from traffic
had been calculated. The costs comprise service
platforms and possibly middleware investments, as well
as yearly expenses for capacity rental, which can be
derived from the network costs, as well as commercial
and customer care costs. This business case seeks to
evaluate the economic feasibility of service operators,
whether they are independent or within a network
operator group owning the infrastructure.
The techno-economic modeling was carried out using
the TONIC tool, which has been developed by the IST-
TONIC project using the TERA tool [5] as the basis.
This tool is an implementation of the techno-economic
modeling methodology developed by a series of EU co-
operation projects in the field.
Models for two main business profiles have been
constructed. In the first profile, the MVNO is a telecom
operator or a power company without a mobile license
but well known as an operator aiming to
complement/expand other services such as fixed
broadband services. This will be the Operator-MVNO
business profile. In the other profile, the MVNO is a
high brand-value and large customer base company
aiming to expand its business in the mobile area and
therefore to take customers from every MNO. Therefore
the churn effects must be taken into account as key
element in this case. This is actually a Service-MVNO
business profile.
Different demand models and service penetration rates
have been defined in order to take into account these two
different cases for a MVNO. This business classification
leads to specific service packages offered by these
potential MVNOs and has been attributed to MVNO
business profiles. Finally, sensitivity analysis is
performed in order to identify the impact of variations in
key input parameters like the price of airtime that
MVNO pays to MNO that can seriously affect the
profitability since it must be acceptable by MNO and
sets the window for negotiations between the two
operators
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In this analysis, which is based on assumptions described
previously, the profitability of MVNO both in large and
small countries has been presented through specific
calculations. Furthermore, the two different business
profiles associated with different plans for service
provisions and specifically, companies focused on wide
market like an operator or focused on lucrative market
segments have been analysed. The profitability for all
these cases is calculated.
The main economic results for the four basic scenarios
are illustrated in Table 1. These results show that
companies aiming to operating UMTS services can be
benefited from a acceptable NPV and IRR figures. In
more detail, operators investing in MVNO rollout benefit
from more or less the same payback period and rather
interesting economic figures. The service-oriented
MVNOs are benefited from larger ARPU. This occurs
due to better usage patterns of their customers and
associated consumption, but they have to pay it to
additional investments. It can be also observed that the
investments are more or less proportional to the
population for the large country but almost double for
the small country. This difference is based on the
necessity to offer coverage and therefore to buy
equipment that is not fully utilised.
Table 1: Summary of the basic results.
Country type Large Small
Operat
or like Service
Oriented Operator
like 1Service
Oriented
NPV (M€) 111.7 244.3 71.7 12.1
IRR (%) 15.5 20.9 30 14.3
Rest Value
(M€) 8.44 8.77 0.69 0.79
Pay Back
Period
(years) 7.7 7.1 5.8 7.7
Customers
(million) 1,03 1,3 0,158 0,079
Investments
(M€) 79,8 80,1 23.7 24,2
Running
Costs (M€) 941 953,7 99,9 77,.5
Revenues-
Running
(M€) 868,3 1.218 272,2 121,5
Investment
Per (€)
Connected
Customer 19 19€ 70 34
The below-described figures are for rather pessimistic
market shares (all are considered more or less new
entrants) and surely MVNO can wait optimistic results.
For the case of a small country, the initial position of the
MVNO in the 2G world, is mandatory for a successful
business in the emerging 3G market. On the other hand,
stronger service differentiation is followed by larger
1 For this scenario, it has been considered that the
MVNO has a 2% initial market share in the 2,5G market.

investments while the payback period is remaining the
same (Figure 2).
Cash Flows - Cash Balance Operator-Like MVNO
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Years
MEuro
-150
-50
50
150
250
Cash Flows LC OL MVNO
Cash Balance LC OL MVNO
Cash Flows SC OL MVNO
Cash Balance SC OL MVNO
Figure 2: Cash balance and cash flows for a Operator-
like MVNO operating in two different countries. (Large
country ? Left axis, Small Country ? Right axis)
(LC=Large Country, SC=Small Country)
The breakdown of total investments in the large country
case is given in Figure 3. This chart confirms our earlier
observation that the bulk of the CAPEX (> 80%) is
accounted for the business running costs and therefore
this is the main advantage of a well-structure MVNO.
CAPital EXPenditure
Customer Care
and Marketing
42%
Access &
Interconnection
19%
Employee
Costs
39%
Figure 3: Breakdown of non-discounted Capital
Expenditures (CAPEX), large country scenario.
Outlining the findings of this work, acceptable business
opportunities can be observed through these calculations
in terms of forecasted and actual mobile penetration
across Europe. Agreements with Mobile Network
Operators (MNOs) for spectrum usage and
interconnection give to MVNO enough space for
business opportunities and acceptable profit margins.
Sensitivity analysis used to identify the most critical
parameters affecting the performance of the MVNO but
also to find the impact of specific uncertainties regarding
market inputs and business agreements such as
interconnection costs. Usage and tariff levels have
greatest impact, following by the market share at the end
of the study period, especially for the large country.
Variations on interconnection price and churn have
limited impact on the economic results due to MVNO’s
small customer base and market share.
For the adoption of the appropriate price for the
interconnection between MVNO and MNO has been
based on data from operators and reports. As the base
value has been selected a price of 3 Euros per Mbyte per
day. But since such a value is only based on current
situation in the 2,5G market, sensitivity analysis has
been carried out for the improvement of the assumptions.
The maximum price for a positive NPV is 19 Euros
(Figure 4) which gives more or less a large window for
business and negotiations with the MNO.
Sensitivity for the MVNO - MNO interconnection cost
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
23,8 5,6 7,4 9,2 11 12,8 14,6 16,4 18,2 20
Interconnection Price per MB per day (Euros)
MEuro
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
NPV (MEuros) IRR
Figure 4: Sensitivity results for the interconnection price
between MVNO and MNO
The usage level is the most critical parameter for the
economic criteria NPV and IRR. The TONIC model
links revenues with usage levels, which means that a
50% increase in revenue corresponds to a 50% increased
in usage. Under these circumstances, it would be
expected that network costs would increase accordingly.
However, since network costs are essentially dictated by
coverage constraints and not by capacity constraints, an
increase in usage translates only as greater revenues,
while the corresponding increase in costs is minimal, and
relates to core network elements.
In the large country scenario, a 50% reduction in
tariff/usage levels leads to a negative Net Present Value
over the study period (-217 Meuros, Figure 5), and a
15% reduction leads to a null NPV, i.e., cumulative costs
(CAPEX + OPEX) are only just recovered by 2011
(Figure 5). This information provides the operator with
an idea of its latitude for changing rates in response, say,
to sharp price reductions triggered by a competitor, all
other parameters remaining equal.

NPV vs. Usage for Large country
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
50% 100% 150%
Usage multiplier
NVP (MEuros)
Figure 5: Influence of usage to the NPV for a operator-
like MVNO in a large country
In the small country scenario, NPV is becoming null for
a 50% reduction with respect to the nominal usage level
(which is 20% greater than in the large country). The
fact that it remains positive shows that the operator has
significant room to manoeuvre in terms of usage and
associated tariff level.
The nominal saturation levels for subscriber penetration
are respectively 95% in the small country and 90% in the
large country. Only the –50% variation is examined,
since the subscriber saturation level cannot exceed
100%.
In the large country, if this saturation level is reduced to
50%, the NPV is negative (-114 MEuros), and it is zero
for a 20% reduction, which means a level of 72% for the
total mobile penetration (Figure 6). This information is
good news for the operator, since overall mobile
penetration already exceeds this critical point. Again, the
parameter for overall penetration was modified with all
other parameters remaining constant.
NPV vs. Mobile penetration
for Large country
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
50% 100% 150%
Total mobile penetration multiplier
NVP (MEuros)
Figure 6: Influence of the mobile penetration to the
MVNO’s NPV
In the small country, we can’t find a null NPV for
overall mobile penetration of 50%. Here again, this level
has been largely exceeded in the Nordic countries, hence
there is no cause for concern over this parameter.
In the large country scenario, the 3G MVNO is assumed
to have a 2% market share throughout the study period.
However, the impacts of variations in both start and end
market share is of great interest. The graphs show that
the beginning and end market shares indeed affect NPV
and IRR. For the small country, only an initial position
of more than 1% can lead to a profitable business. But
this is probably the case for every company aiming to
enter 3G market. On the other hand, a larger end market
share can overcome this.
V. CONCLUSIONS
The increasing, almost exponential growth of interest of
companies, working or not in the mobile sector, entering
this market is self-evident and many of them are looking
for specific channels to start offering services. The
channel of MVNO is either complement to service
provision channel or to operator channel but it is still a
way to take part to in this big game.
This paper is the first step in the assessment of the
market conditions, the architectures and the potential for
a profitable business case of a full MVNO aiming to
operate in a large or small European country focused on
either wide market or lucrative market segments.
In this analysis, which is based on assumptions described
herein, the profitability of MVNO both in large and
small countries has been presented through specific
calculations. Furthermore, the two different business
profiles associated with different plans for service
provisions have been analysed. The profitability for all
these cases has presented and acceptable for
shareholders NVP and IRR figures have been calculated.
Acceptable business opportunities can be observed
through these calculations in terms of forecasted and
actual mobile penetration across Europe. Agreements
with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) for spectrum
usage and interconnection give to MVNO enough space
for business opportunities and acceptable profit margins.
MVNO can still be an attractive opportunity for
companies since both infrastructure costs (which can be
high due to difficulties to obtain volume discounts) and
interconnection costs are not too critical. Marketing and
entry costs in general can be a burden for a potential
MVNO but this can be overcome from a high brand firm
or an already operating company. Although revenues
from the provision of broadband services are missing
from current MVNO business plans this could be another
opportunity for the MVNO to expand its business in the
future.
The work carried out will be continued in order to
address issues such as different business profiles, strong
service differentiation as well as risk analysis associated
with different options.
European mobile operators and service providers
interested in entering the 3G market can exploit this
information but a wide audience of this report can been
also foreseen since, for example, European 2G and 3G
operators could become MVNOs on USA and vice
versa. Therefore, in reality, the MVNO way to 3G games
represents a profitable option for all involved parties.

References
[1] http://www.ist-tonic.org/
[2] Virtual Mobile Services: Strategies for Fixed and
Mobile Operators, April 2000, by OVUM.
www.ovum.com
[3] OFTEL Statement on Mobile Virtual Network
Operators, September 1999.
http://www.oftel.gov.uk/competition/mvno1099.htm
[4] D. Katsianis et al, “The financial perspective of the
mobile networks in Europe”, IEEE, Personal
Commun. Mag., Dec. 2001 Vol 8, No 6, pp 58-64
[5] http://www.telenor.no/fou/prosjekter/tera